Problem of Population growth,

poverty and environment,

Population Explosion,

Family Welfare Programme,

Women & Child Welfare.

• Human population impacts environment science in many ways:

• Rising populations put increasing demands on naturalresources such as land, water, and energy supplies.

• As human communities use more resources, they generatecontaminants, such as air and water pollution and greenhousegas emissions

• They also increase larger quantities of waste

Focus of study on Demography, the science of human population.We shall explore environmental impacts of population growth andalso considers questions such as:

•How does population growth or decline influence economic andsocial well-being?

•Does population growth enhance or diminish economic growth?

•Do specific aspects of population growth, such as age structure orsex imbalance, have bigger impacts on economic development andenvironmental quality than other aspects?

• Estimate Earth's carrying capacity? or the maximumpopulation that it can support on a continuing basis.

• Dependencies:

• Food production

• Total arable land

• Amount of energy available to do work

• Resources are not allocated equally around the world. Insome areas such as the Sahel in West Africa (betweenthe Sahara desert and more humid woodlands to thesouth), population growth is putting heavy stresses on afragile environment, so food needs are outstripping foodproduction

• Everyone who is alive one year from now will be one yearolder at that time than s/he is today.

• Ages 15 to 49 are humans' prime childbearing years,biologically speaking (although resource constraints andsocial and political factors shape childbearing decisionsdifferently from one country to another).

• Human mortality is relatively high among infants, children,and adults over age 60, compared to other age groups.

• Putting these observations together, population analysts candevelop a reasonably accurate map of how a society'spopulation size, births, deaths, and age structure are likely toevolve in the next several decades.

• Birth and death rates are the most important determinantsof population growth; in some countries, net migration isalso important in this regard.

• To calculate population growth rates, demographers take thedifference between births and deaths in a given time period,add the net number of migrants (which for the world as awhole is 0), and divide that number by the total population.

• For example, there are now about 136 million births and 58million deaths worldwide annually, adding a net of 78 millionnew inhabitants to a global population of 6.7 billion, agrowth rate of nearly 1.2%

• Mechanization of agriculture enabled societies to producemore food.

• As food supplies expanded, average levels of nourishmentrose, and vulnerability to chronic and contagious diseasesdeclined over succeeding generations.

• Improvements in medical care and public health services—also helped people to live longer, so death rates fell. Afterseveral decades of lower mortality, people realized that theydid not have to have so many children to achieve their desiredfamily size, so birth rates began to fall as well.

• Family size tended to decrease as women found opportunitiesto enter the labour force.

• The costs of raising children also increased, as slightlywealthier families living in urban areas faced higher expensesfor a larger array of physical and social necessities.

Phased reduction in death and birth rates is called demographic transition. Because death rates fall before birth rates, population growth initially speeds up. Population momentum is still significant despite decline in global fertility rate from 5 children born per woman in 1950 to a little over 2.5 in 2006.

• Developed nations have passed through the demographic transition, and mostdeveloping countries are at some point in the process today.

• Expanded work forces can help nations increase their economic output, raising livingstandards for everyone. They also can strain available resources and which in turn maycause shortages and economic disruption. (Source: habitable planet)

• Fertility rate :• Physical factors : Woman’s child bearing years.• Non-physical factors: Relationship status; use of contraception

• Fertility levels are lower in developed countries than in developing nations becausemore women in developed countries work outside of the home and tend to marry laterand to use contraception and abortion to delay or prevent childbearing.

• Mortality rate :• Mortality is the second major variable that shapes population trend.• Death rates are highest among infants, young children and the elderly• To assess longevity in a society, demographers calculate life expectancy -the age

that a newborn would, on average, live.

• Life Expectancy:• It is trending upward around the world, but a substantial gap remains between• developing and developed countries. In 2006, life expectancies at birth ranged

from the mid-30s in some African countries to the high 70s or low 80s in theUnited States, Australia, Japan, and some European countries

Reason for longevity: Satisfaction of many basic human needs such as adequatenutrition, clean water and sanitation, as well as access to medical services likevaccinations. However, New threats to health are continually emerging viz. Aids , TB

• Early decades of the Industrial Revolution: life expectancies were low in westernworld.

• Thousands of people died from infectious diseases such as typhoid and cholera, inthe crowded due to filthy conditions in factory towns or due to poor nutrition.

• But. from about 1850 through 1950, a cascade of health and safety advancesradically improved living conditions in industrialized nations.

• Major milestones included:• improving urban sanitation and waste removal;• improving the quality of the water supply and expanding access to it;• forming public health boards to detect illnesses and quarantine the sick;• researching causes and means of transmission of infectious diseases;• developing vaccines and antibiotics;• adopting workplace safety laws and limits on child labor; and• promoting nutrition by providing milk, breads, and cereals with vitamins

By the mid-20th century, most industrialized nations had passed through thedemographic transition. As health technologies were transferred to developingnations, many of these countries entered the mortality transition and theirpopulation swelled. The population growth rate peaked in 1960s at 2%/yr (2.5%in developing countries).

Dependency ratio: (people who are too young or too old to work vs. working population

Dependency ratios by region, 2005. Source: UN, World Population Prospects

RegionTotal (Dependents per 100 working-age people)

Children per 100 working-age people

Old-age per 100 working-age people

World 55 44 11

Africa 81 75 6

Latin America/Caribbean

57 47 10

Oceania 54 36 16

Asia 52 43 10

North America 49 31 18

Europe 47 23 23

Dependency ratios are key influences on economic growth. Nations with highdependency ratios spend large shares of their resources taking care of dependents, whilethose with lower ratios are able to devote more resources to investment in capital,technological progress, and education.

Dependency ratios are key influences on economic growth. Nations with highdependency ratios spend large shares of their resources taking care of dependents, whilethose with lower ratios are able to devote more resources to investment in capital,technological progress, and education.

• Earth's population by 2050 will reach• ~9 billion, if fertility decline to 2 children/woman in 2050. with max. growth

occurring in developing countries• 7.7 billion, if the rate falls more sharply, to 1.5 children/woman,• 10.6 billion, if there is slower decline to 2.5 children/woman

Is the population growth

out of control ?

• Growth rates peaked in late 1960s. The world's total population is still rising becauseof population momentum in developing countries in ‘50s and early 1960s.

• Fertility rates are falling as many developing countries pass through the demographictransition, due to factors like:• Lower infant mortality rates; education, and work opportunities for women; and

increased access to family planning services.

• World population growth in the 21st century will be different from previousdecades in several important ways.

• First, humans are living longer and having fewer children, so there will be moreolder people (age 60 and above) than very young people (age zero to four).

• Second, nearly all population growth will take place in urban areas. Third, fertilityrates will continue to decline

• Senior citizens can be active and productive members of society, but they havemany unique needs in areas like medical care, housing and transportation.

• Growing elderly populations will strain social services, especially in countries thatdo not have well- developed social safety nets.

• As societies age, demand for younger workers will increase, drawing more womento work outside of the home, thereby decreasing fertility rate.

• some countries have already dropped below replacement level (2.1): # ofchildren per woman that keeps population levels constant when births and deathsare considered together over time.

• Fertility rates in most European and some Asian and Caribbean countriescurrently range from about 1.2 to 1.8, well below replacement level. shrinkingpopulations might drain national savings and reduce tax revenues.

• One widely-cited formula proposed by Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren in 1974• "I = PAT" i.e.• Environmental Impact=Population x Affluence (or consumption) x

Technology• Technology is sub-divided into two factors:

• Resource-intensity (how much used to produce each unit of consumption)• Waste-intensity (how much waste generated for each unit of consumption)

• Environmental impacts take two major forms:• First, we consume resources such as land, food, water, soils, and services from

healthy ecosystems, such as water filtration through wetlands. Over-consumptionuses up or severely depletes supplies of non-renewable resources, such as fossilfuels, and depletes renewable resources such as fisheries and forests if we usethem up faster than they can replenish themselves

• Second, we emit wastes as a product of our consumption activities, including airand water pollutants, toxic materials, greenhouse gases, and excess nutrients.Some wastes, such as untreated sewage and many pollutants, threaten humanhealth. Others disrupt natural ecosystem functions: for example, excess nitrogenin water supplies causes algal blooms that deplete oxygen and kill fish.

• Rising population spurred worries that developing countries could deplete theirfood supplies. Starting with India in 1951, dozens of countries launched familyplanning programs with support from international organizations and westerngovernments.

• National programs were particularly effective in Asia, which accounted for roughly80% of global fertility decline from the 1950s through 2000.

• However, that this conclusion is controversial. Some researchers have argued thatdesired fertility falls as incomes grow—and that family planning has essentially noindependent influence

• These programs convince citizens that having large numbers of children was badfor the nation and for individual families. Generally they focused on educatingmarried couples about birth control and distributing contraceptives, but someprograms took more coercive approaches.

• China imposed a limit of one child per family in 1979.• In some parts of China the one-child policy reportedly has been enforced through

methods including forced abortions and sterilizations. Forced sterilizations alsooccurred in India in the 1970s.

• These policies have spurred some Indian and Chinese families to practice selectiveabortion and infanticide of female babies, since boys are more valued culturallyand as workers.

• Population sex ratios in both countries are skewed as a result. In 2005 therewere 107.5 males per 100 females in India and 106.8 males per 100 femalesin China, compared to a worldwide average of 101.6 males per 100 females.

• Females slightly outnumber males on every continent other than Asia

• Large societies consume more resources than small ones, but consumptionpatterns and technology choices may account for more environmentalharms than sheer numbers of people. The U.S. population is about one-fourth as large as that of China or India, but the United States currentlyuses far more energy because Americans are more affluent and usetheir wealth to buy energy-intensive goods like cars and electronics.

• But China and India are growing and becoming more affluent, so theirenvironmental impacts will increase. For example, in 2006 Chinasurpassed the United States as the world's largest emitter of carbondioxide (CO2), the main greenhouse gas produced as a result of humanactivities

• Nutritional deficiencies cause common illnesses like being underweight,while dirty water and poor sanitation spread infectious agents such ascholera and typhoid.

• New threats to health are continually emerging, and often are spreadacross international borders through trade and human or animalmigration. Recent examples that are severe enough to affect lifeexpectancy in large areas include the HIV/AIDS pandemic andpotentially avian flu and multi-drug-resistant malaria and tuberculosis.

• Researchers are also gaining new insight into existing threats, such asindoor air pollution from combustion of primitive biomass fuels like cropwaste and dung.

• Common diseases: Pneumonia, Gastrointestinal conditions, Diarrhea,Measles, Malaria, Malnutrition etc.

• Environmental investments, such as providing cleaner energy sourcesand upgrading sewage treatment systems, can significantly improvepublic health.

Case Study:Chula ( cooking stove) issue:• WHO estimates that 16 lakh early deaths occur

annually from cooking stove pollution.• ~4- 5Lakh women and children less than 5 years die

each year in India due to indoor smoke.• Chula smoke is 3rd highest cause of death after dirty

Water and lack of sanitation.

• What should be done to address the issue?

India and Natural DisastersIndia is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world.

Over 65% land area vulnerable to earthquakes;

70% of land under cultivation prone to drought;

5% of land (40 million hectares) to floods;

8% of land (8,000 km coastline) to cyclones.

A Major Disaster occurs every 2-3 years;

50 million people affected annually

1 million houses damaged annually along with human,socialand other losses

During 1985-2003, the annual average damage due to natural disasters has been estimated at 70 million USD

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI: BMTPC, Ministry of Urban Development, GOI

GENERAL EFFECTS OF DISASTER

LOSS OF LIFE

INJURY

DAMAGE TO AND DESTRUCTION OF PROPERTY.

DAMAGE TO AND DESTRUCTION OF PRODUCTION.

DISRUPTION OF LIFESTYLE

LOSS OF LIVELIHOOD.

DISRUPTION TO ESSENTIAL SERVICES

DAMAGE TO NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE

DISRUPTION TO GOVERNMENTAL SYSTEMS

NATIONAL ECONOMIC LOSS

SOCIOLOGICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL AFTER EFFECT.

The Myths

It Can’t Happen to Us.

The Nature’s forces are so Deadly the Victims will Die anyway.

There is Nothing We Can Do.

A phenomenon or event which constitutes a trauma for a population/environment.

A vulnerable point/area that will bear the brunt of the traumatizing event.

The failure of local & surrounding resources to cope with the problems created by the phenomenon.

Types of Disasters Natural - Manmade

Ingredients of a Disaster

Disasters affecting India

EARTHQUAKE

VOLCANIC ERUPTION

TSUNAMI

CYCLONE

FLOOD

LANDSLIDE

DROUGHT

MAJOR ACCIDENT (FIRE, EXPLOSION)

CIVIL UNREST

Response

Recovery

Prevention & Mitigation

Preparedness

Disaster Management Cycle

RESPONSE Response measures are usually those which are taken

immediately prior to and following disaster impact.

Typical measures include :

Implementation of plans

Activation of the counter-disaster system

Search and Rescue

Provision of emergency food, shelter, medical assistance etc.

Survey and assessment

Evacuation measures

RECOVERY Recovery is the process by which communities and the

nation are assisted in returning to their proper level of functioning following a disaster.

Three main categories of activity are normally regarded as coming within the recovery segment:

Restoration

Reconstruction

Rehabilitation

PREVENTION & MITIGATION

Prevention : Action within this segment is designed to impede the occurrence of a disaster event and/or prevent such an occurrence having harmful effects on communities or key installations.

Mitigation : Action within this segment usually takes the form of specific programs intended to reduce the effects of disaster on a nation or community. For instance, some countries regard the development and application of building codes (which can reduce damage and loss in the event of earthquakes and cyclones) as being in the category of mitigation.

PREPAREDNESS

It comprises of measures which enable governments,organizations, communities and individuals to respondrapidly and effectively to disaster situations.

PREPAREDNESS (Contd)

Examples of Preparedness measures are :

The formulation & maintenance of valid, up-to-datecounter-disaster plans

Special provisions for emergency action

The provisions of warning systems

Emergency communications

Public education and awareness

Training programs, including exercises and tests.