Population Environment Sustainability - Five Thought-experiments
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Transcript of Population Environment Sustainability - Five Thought-experiments
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Thresholds - Planetary boundaries - Tipping-points?
The efects o imposing eradications and dismantlementsupon multiple unctioning components o complex systems and
their potential implications
Collapse?
Hubris?
Systems ailures?
Potential implications?
Five Thought - Experiments
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Albert Einstein Just as Albert Einstein once utilized“thought-experiments” to help clarifyuestions and concepts in his areas of
study!
"e "ill consider here
five brief thought-experiments
to help contemplate and assess
our planet#s functioning biospheric machinery and its
limited population “carrying capacity” for humans$
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Exactly ho" much damage! "astes! obliterations! and eradications can beinflicted upon A%& functioning complex system and expect that system to
continue to function as it has al"ays done in the past'
The (uestion to be Tested
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)ost people readily understand that“supplies of food” or “"ater” or
“resources” might impose limits to the
size of a population$
*n this presentation! ho"ever! "e are going to consider several thought-experiments that underscore other real-"orld “limiting factors” + that are at least
as dangerous and important + but "hich are less instinctively appreciated$
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Earths planetary carryingcapacity ! or example! is not
solely a matter o "running-out-o suppositions
such as ‘runnin
g-ou t-of ’
f ood, or wa ter,
or resources
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,iospheric and functioning natural systems! for
example! have limits
to the degrees of eradications! damage! and "astes thatthey can suffer and still continue to function
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imply posing the
uestion instantly
the only planetary life-support machinery
so far .no"n to exist any"here in the universe
triggers insights into Earth
systems "hich comprise
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*magine! for instance! large-scale eradications of
the multiple and complex interacting systems of
or an automobile,
or an airplane,
or a computer system,
multiple body systems
of a vertebrate organism'
a space vehicle,
or the
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/et us begin by trying to imagine a team of
astronauts in a space vehicle if they "ere to
0cannibalize 123 of their navigation and propulsion systems!
0degrade 453 of their 672 scrubbers!
0destroy 183 of their heat shields!0delete 553 of their computer codes!
0413 of their oxygen production systems!
and a random evisceration of multiple other
portions of their craft's life-support machinery.
along "ith 493 of their "aste recycling and "ater-purification capabilities!
Thought + Experiment %umber 7ne
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%o rational astronauts! of course! "ould ever
dream of inflicting such damage
upon the vehicle that sustains their lives in space
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T h i s i s n’ t g o i
n g t o w o r k
o u t s o we l l i
s i t?
e$g$ - 0583 of the steering,
…413 of the carburetor,
…193 of the transmission, …513 of the electrical,
…423 of the brakes,
…:53 of the tires,
…2;3 of the ales,
…1
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Thought + Experiment %umber T"o
"nfortunately, other impacts
are also occurring -
At the same time! this individual also simultaneously >each day? adds
more and more >and ever-accumulating ? contaminants to his vehicle#s
0radiator!
0 bra.e and transmission fluid
0 battery ,
0engine oil ,
and
0gasoline
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%ot so bright! is he'
doesn't function anymore…
#nd then suppose that this individual cannot understand why
his automobile, "hich @has al"ays "or.ed in the past!@
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$o we know anyone who seems to treat
the only planetary life-support machinery
so far known to eist anywhere in the universe
in a similar way?
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%o rational astronauts "ould ever dream of inflicting such
damage upon the vehicle that sustains their lives in space!
and the rest of us would never dream of
inflicting such damage upon our automobiles.
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so ar #no$n to existany$here in the uni%erse
,ut "e someho" seem to suppose that "e can inflict such damage
upon the ONLY planetary
lie-support machinery
and to assume that it should unfailingly continue to
function as it has always done in the past
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% e x t
6ontemplating biophysical and functional limits to Earth#s
planetary 6arrying 6apacity
- an airplane analogy as a thought-eperiment -
Thought + Experiment %umber Three
…in f licted on a world wide scale b y a mod
ern ind u striali %ed h uma
nit y
with a pro s pero u s standard o f li vin g f or all…
*n this “thought-experiment” "e "ill employ an airplane analogy to contemplate the
effects and implications of massive! planetary-scale eradications! damage! and "astes$
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uppose that you and your family are boarding an
airplane for a long trip and that the plane is full
uppose in this initial situation that "e
imagine a plane that has enough
>almost! at least?
food and fuel and resources
for its passengers!
but another problem begins to assert itself thatseriously threatens both safety and survival
Thought + Experiment %umber Three
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As your flight proceeds! you notice that all of the passengers are! to some extent! physically-removing or damaging ever-increasing portions of the plane itself
Thought + Experiment %umber Three
e$g$ - engine ,
"ings ,
fuselage ,
fuel pumps ,
navigation ,
electrical
"indo"s
steering ,
etc.
0 and some economic entities are conducting vast and rapid
dismantlements on a vehicle-wide and industriali%ed scale
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Thought + Experiment %umber Three
6ontemplating these activities
causes us to as.
&hat percentage
of the plane’s comple and interacting component parts can be
endlessly and cumulatively( removed and
still continue to function?
!ur reason for bringing this up, of course, is that the
=vehicle’ that we are treating this way today is our planet
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Bhat if the passengers and economic activities combined remove
5; - 4; - 1;3 of multiple systems'
Thought + Experiment %umber Three
7r of all ! many! or most
such systems'
7r of even one such system'
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uppose that some intelligent passengers become "orried and
initiate and promote vehicle-"ide conservation programs
Thought + Experiment %umber Three
And their efforts see. to fully protect and preserve
at least 9;3 samplings
of as many of the plane#s parts and components as possible
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The problem! of course! is that
goals of 9;3 conservation
Thought + Experiment %umber Three
contemplate >and may conceivably permit? 1;3 destruction
Th i s i s n’ t
go i n g to wo r k
o u t so well i s
i t?
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Thought + Experiment %umber Three
!ur reason for bringing this up, of course, is that the
=vehicle’ that we are treating this way today is our planet
0 t"elve percent sample sections from one wing 0
0 f our t e e n p e r ce nt of t he ca b in 00 s a v i ng 9 ; 3
o f t h e f u s e l a
g e
and
0 a nine percent sample of three engine parts 0
uppose that their goals envision
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%otice that not only does this thought-experiment
po"erfully argue that 9;3 conservation goals are not
enough
Thought + Experiment %umber Three
,ut also that even seemingly - small
percentage dismantlements in some components
might trigger calamitous
and irreversible outcomes
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!ur reason for bringing this up, of course, is that the
entity that we are treating this way today is our planet
&hich is home to the 7%/& planetary life-support machinery
so far known to eist anywhere in the universe
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% e x t
aving 9;3 samples of complexly-interactinganatomical and physiological vertebrate systems
Thought + Experiment %umber Four
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*magine that medical providers in your local hospital decide that
rising medical costs force them to alter their standards of care
Thought + Experiment %umber Four
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#s a result, they develop new protocols that focus on a
less-costly program of setting aside and conserving
representative 9;3 samplings
of each patient’s component body parts and systems
Thought + Experiment %umber Four
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For individual patients! these ne" economically-induced protocols
may not ensure a complete cure for his or her disease >"hich is too costly?
Thought + Experiment %umber Four
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,ut "ill instead attempt to save! "here possible! various 4! 1! or 9;3
representative samplings of the patient#s body parts such as
half an artery and one third of a vein!
some "hite blood cells!
a portion of one elbo" ! 13 from one of the shoulder blades!
part of one eyelid!
a portion of one earlobe!
9C3 of the spinal cord!and
one of the heart chambers
Thought + Experiment %umber Four
This isn’t going to work out so well is it?
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*n addition! the ne" policies "ill also endeavor to save! "here
possible! additional small representative samplings of the patient#s
Thought + Experiment %umber Four
pancreas !
.nee!
brain !
muscles !
.idneys !
hair follicles!
and
connective tissue
7bviously! an intelligent person "ould immediately realize
the inadeuacy of such an approach - right'
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the calamitous! mista.en! and non-cautious nature of such foolishly-
permissive policies of eradications! damage! "astes! and dismantlements$
6learly! in a space vehicle setting!
or involving one#s automobile!
or on an airplane! or in a
hospital! "e immediately see
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)et these seem to be precisely the policies that we are applying to our
planet and its functioning systems which comprise the only planetary
life-support machinery so far known to eist anywhere in the universe
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the only planetary life-support machinery
so far known to eist
anywhere in the universe
Do "e! therefore! .no"
anyone "ho seems to treat
in a similar "ay'
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%o rational astronauts "ould ever dream of inflicting such
damage upon the vehicle that sustains their lives in space!
and the rest of us would never dream of
inflicting such damage upon our automobiles.
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so ar #no$n to existany$here in the uni%erse
,ut "e someho" seem to suppose that "e can inflict such damage
upon the ONLY planetary
lie-support machinery
and to assume that it should unfailingly continue to
function as it has always done in the past
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*t is not an exact analogy! of course! but thin. of the moist
tropical forests functioning as the “lungs of the "orld$”
everal additional thoughts concerning
Eac h da y t he p ho t
os y n t hes is o f a l l t
he i r m i l l io ns o f p l
a n ts
a nd t rees re mo ve
6 7 2 f ro m t he a t mo
s p he re a nd re lease
7 2
Thought + Experiment %umber Four
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*f "e "ere to save 9;3 of a person#s lung tissuesand destroy the remaining 1;3!
could "e reasonably expect the person to even survive!
much less to continue to function normally'
*s saving one lung and one kidney enough?
Thought + Experiment %umber Four
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7ne lung "ould amount to 2;3 and one .idney is 2;3$
*s that sufficient to maintain even a suboptimal level of physiological function?
!r does a + loss of each system constitute
a new and highly precarious condition?
Thought + Experiment %umber Four
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*s it sufficient if "e save some
of the endocrine glands'
*f a person loses one lung and one .idneyand half of their endocrine glands!
"hat happens to their
overall prognosis'
Thought + Experiment %umber Four
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Be probably need to save at least fifty
percent of Earth#s natural systems
and to the extent that the
above analogies hold!
that fifty percent may not be enough.
Thought + Experiment %umber Four
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emember our airplane analogy'
uppose that "e slightly alter it as follo"s0$
Thought + Experiment %umber Five
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uppose that you and your family are boarding
an airplane for a long trip,
and you
notice a line
of more and more
and more
and more
endlessly boarding your flight
and cro"ding onto your plane
Thought + Experiment %umber Five
passengers
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This begins to become uite unsettling! of course + since things like
airplanes - > and elevators and buses and bridges and planets ? - have
carrying capacities
"hich are limits to their abilities to accommodate passengers!
or damages! "astes! "eights! loads! and eradications! etc$
and still continue to function
Thought + Experiment %umber Five
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Almost all pilots and aeronautical engineers! for instance! "ould immediately recognize
that there are limits to the numbers and combined "eights of all the plane#s passengers!
luggage! contents! and damages and "astes that their vehicles can accommodate$
Thought + Experiment %umber Five
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emember that your family is on your plane "ith you and it is
a very long trip and you are aboard the 7%/& such passenger
vehicle .no"n to exist any"here in the universe'
&ould you sit in silence and allow the ravaging and
dismantlement to proceed without interruption?
Bo u ld n# t yo u e x pec t
yo u r e lec ted re p rese n ta t i ves a nd Fo u
r na l is ts a nd
ma Fo r ne "s pa pe rs to
g i ve t hese d is ma n t le m
e n ts a nd t he i r i m p l ica t io ns as
m uc h co ve rage as t he
i r ce le b r i t y goss i p s to
r ies '
Thought + Experiment %umber Five
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T he se ! pe n
- c o u r se wa re
/ o we r / o i n t
s
a n d 0 o r t he s
e 1 e c u t i ve - s
u m ma r y G D F
s
http://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacyhttp://golddoubloons.wix.com/biospheric-literacy
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2or more information on this, see this ppt and0or this pdf
http://www.scribd.com/doc/118659074/Population-Carrying-Capacity-and-Limiting-Factors-ppt-versionhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_8a2e61256aca42579efe896643b009c4.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_8a2e61256aca42579efe896643b009c4.pdfhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/118659074/Population-Carrying-Capacity-and-Limiting-Factors-ppt-version
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2or more information on this, see this ppt and0or this pdf
https://www.scribd.com/doc/65245833/ppt-4-Thin-films-Earth-s-atmosphere-and-seashttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_8a2e61256aca42579efe896643b009c4.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_8a2e61256aca42579efe896643b009c4.pdfhttps://www.scribd.com/doc/65245833/ppt-4-Thin-films-Earth-s-atmosphere-and-seas
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F o r mo r e i n f o r ma t i o n o n t hi s , s e e t hi s p p t a nd / o r t hi s p d f
http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510http://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://media.wix.com/ugd/5b4b38_f7861327df98424cbe9d11bbcdc62ba0.pdfhttp://en.calameo.com/read/0006765197e14be48b510
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/ower/oints and Executive summary pdfs for
academia and policymakers are accessible here
http://www.scribd.com/collections/3655003/Population-for-Academia-and-Policymakershttp://www.scribd.com/collections/3655003/Population-for-Academia-and-Policymakers
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&orkshop /ower/oints and
pdf Executive summaries are
accessible here
http://en.calameo.com/accounts/676519http://en.calameo.com/accounts/676519
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Did you .no" that the 6aptain and 7fficers of the passenger liner Titanic
received si separate and specific warnings of ice during the C< hours preceding their ship#s collision "ith the iceberg that san. it'
They "ent ahead and sailed their ship and
its passengers right into the iceberg
# n d w ha t d i d
t he y do?