JOMO KENYATTA UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE

AND TECHNOLOGY KIGALI CAMPUS

MSc. of Development Studies Year II, Semester I HSDH 3205 . Population, Demography and Development Instructor: Dr Manzi Stanley

POPULATION & DEMOGRAPHY CHALLENGES IN RWANDA

Presented by:

HABIMANA Bernard------------------------- REG N0. HD324-CO10-5560/201

Presentation Outline

Population and Demography indicators & statistics in

Rwanda

Definition of terms and concepts

Demographic transition stages (Frank Wallace)

Malthus vs Boserup theories on overpopulation Factors responsible for high population growth in Rwanda

Population & Demographic Challenges in Rwanda

Conclusion and recommendations

References

Population & Demography Background in Rwanda

11 ,893, 993 : population.5, 840, 916 : male population, (49.1%).6 ,053 ,077: female population, (50.9%)322,674 Annual Births ,896 Births a day,(37 in a

hour)77,404 Annual Deaths,251 Deaths today,(9 in a hour)Source : United Nations Department of Economic and

Social Affairs: Population Division,2016

Rwanda is a landlocked country in the Great Lakes region of central Africa covering roughly 25,000 square kilometers of land

Rwanda population density is 446.1 people per square kilometer as of July 2016

Sources: Fourth Population and Housing Census, Rwanda, 2012, Thematic Report Population Projections for 2015 January 2014

The Rwanda population pyramid has an expanding type. This type of pyramid is common for developing countries with • high birth and death • short life expectancy, • as well as low level of

education and poor health care

Population & Demography Background in Rwanda continue...

Source : United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Population Division,2016

Population & Demography Background in Rwanda continue...

Life expectancyMale life expectancy at birth is 57.7years.Female life expectancy at birth is 60.58 years.

Total life expectancy (both sexes) at birth for Rwanda is 59.26 years.This is below the average life expectancy at birth of the global

population which is about 71 years Fertility rate 6 births per woman (2012)

(According to Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations, 2015

Definition of Terms and Concepts

Demography :The study of the size, structure, and distribution of these populations, and spatial or temporal changes in them in response to birth, migration, ageing, and death.

Population : Group of individuals of same species living in the same geographic area at the same time”

Fertility: refers to the current reproductive performance of a woman.

Life expectancy at birth : is a hypothetical measure that estimates the average number of years that a new born could expect to live. Life expectancy can also be calculated any given age as the number of years a person of that age would expect to live again under the current mortality conditions.

Population pyramid: graphically displays a population's age and sex composition. Horizontal bars present the numbers (or percentages) of males and females in each

age group or at each individual age. The sum of all the age/sex groups in the population pyramid equals the total population.

Demographic transition stages

Pre-industrial Stage• Birth and death rates high• Modest population growthTransitional Stage• Lowered death rate• Rapid population growthIndustrial Stage• Birth rate decline• Population growth slow Post Industrial Stage• Low birth and death rates• Population growth very slow

Slide 7

Frank Wallace Notestein 1950

Refers to the long-termprocess of transition from ademographic regime of high birth and death rates to one of low birth and death rates.

Population & Demography challenges1. Malthus. The Essay on Population

in 1798. English clergyman, Thomas Robert

Malthus, 1766-1834. Born near Guildford.

The Core Principles of Malthus: He Recognised that population if unchecked, Grows at a geometric rate: 1 2 4 8 16

32 However, Food only increases at an arithmetic

rate, as land is finite. 1 2 3 4 5 6

Solution to the Malthusian Trap: Preventive checks: birth control through : later age at marriage, abstinence from sex…

Population & Demography challenges2. Esther Boserup Danish economist born in 1910

Boserup, a Danish agricultural economist and technologist ,

published the Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population PressureTechnological advances will be made to increase food supply

Population, Demography, technology advancement

FACTORS RESPONSIBLE FOR HIGH POPULATION GROWTH IN RWANDA

Poverty: Poverty may increase fertility either by lowering people’s ability to afford contraceptives and reproductive health services.

 Unemployment: Lack of gainful occupation and cultural traditions that

encourage women to stay at home contribute to high population growth in various ways, including availability of free time for sexual activities,

 Increased survival and reduced mortality rates:The recent improvements in public health and general standards of living have led to increases in birth rates and a reduction in deaths of mothers, children, and adults. Illiteracy: Uneducated girls tend to marry and start child bearing at a

much earlier age than educated girls. Furthermore, uneducated girls usually have little knowledge of family planning and of their biology as compared to educated girls.

 Culture and traditions: Many rural families still view large numbers as

a source of power, wealth, and security.

Population & Demography challenges in Rwanda

OverpopulationHigh birth rates.(815 Births a day) Lower life expectancies(59.2 years)High fertility rate (6 children per woman) Lower levels of literacyChild povertyHigher rates of unemployment, especially in urbanPoor diet with ill health and diet-deficiency diseases (e.g. rickets lack of

vitamin in D) Low per capita GDPIncreasingly unhygienic conditionsGovernment stretched economicallyIncreased crime rates resulting from people stealing resources to survive

and Violence

Population & Demography challenges in Rwanda

OverpopulationUltimate shortages of energy sources and othernatural resources,

Famine

Serious communicable diseases in dense populations

Shortage of arable land (where food crops will grow)

Little surplus food

Mass extinctions of plants and animals as habitat is used for farming and human settlements

Familiar conflict over scarce resources such as land area.

Conclusion and RecommendationsRwanda as developing country ,population is growing at a much faster and

challenging the ability of governments to improve socio-economicConditions of the population .

Need to increase funding to population programmes to try to slowdown the pace of population growth. Need to increase funding to programmes promoting integrated rural development

and dealing with the rapid rate of urbanization.

The rising of population in Rwanda also presents the opportunities for economic development. ((Vision 2020 to convert people into human capital )

It will increases availability of labor for economic production, and ensures a ready market for food produce, manufactured goods, and services.

This should present significant opportunities for economic growth provided that proper conditions for development are in place.

ReferenceRPHC4: Population Projections,2012,

http://www.statistics.gov.rw/publication/rphc4-population-projectionsPopulation Reference Bureau. (2008). 2008 World Population Data Sheet.

Washington, DC Population Reference Bureau.May, J.F. (1996). “Demographic Pressure and Population Policies in

Rwanda, 1962-1994”,Population et Sociétés, Translation of No. 319: 1-4.May, J. and J.-P. Guengant. (2008). “Africa’s greatest challenge is to reduce

fertility.” The Financial Times. March 13, 2008.Caldwell, John C. 1976. "Toward a Restatement of Demographic Transition

Theory." Population and Development Review, 2:321-366.

http://www.indexmundi.com/rwanda/life_expectancy_at_birth.htmhttp://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN