Population Changes in Salford 2001-2011

Salford Strategic Partnership Executive

18th March 2013

Jon Stonehouse

Deputy Director Children’s Services

John Reehill

Group Leader (Information & Research)

Themes

• POPULATION CHANGE including age structure and ethnic group.

• HOUSEHOLDS including living arrangements, lone parents and language.

• HEALTH including long term illness and disability.

• HOUSEHOLD ACCOMMODATION including occupation and overcrowding.

• QUALIFICATIONS

• ECONOMIC ACTIVITY including economic status and occupation.

• PROJECTED FUTURE POPULATION CHANGE

• IMPACT ON PRIMARY SCHOOL PLACES including planning for increasing numbers and key challenges

Total population Change 2001-11, Greater Manchester Districts

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Man

ches

ter*

Sal

ford

Tra

fford

Wig

an

Bol

ton

Old

ham

Roc

hdal

e

Tam

esid

e

Bur

y

Sto

ckpo

rtPo

pu

lati

on

Ch

ang

e (P

erso

ns)

Population Change 2001-2011, Salford & Greater Manchester

• 233,933 residents in Salford.

+18,000

Population Age Structure 2011

Census 2011 - Population Structure (All Persons)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

0 ‒

4

5 ‒

9

10 ‒

14

15 ‒

19

20 ‒

24

25 ‒

29

30 ‒

34

35 ‒

39

40 ‒

44

45 ‒

49

50 ‒

54

55 ‒

59

60 ‒

64

65 ‒

69

70 ‒

74

75 ‒

79

80 ‒

84

85 ‒

89

90 a

nd o

ver

Age Group

Age

gro

up a

s %

of t

otal

pop

ulat

ion

England Gtr Manchester Salford

Population Change 2001-11, Salford

Population Change 2001-2011, All Ages, Salford

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80-8

4

85+

Popula

tion C

hange (Pers

ons)

Population Change Salford Wards

Households - Living Arrangements

The number of:

• one Person households up 36% (England up 30%)

• families up 56% (England up 62%)

• lone parent households with dependent children up 22% (England up 19%).

Households – Families Change in Number of families with dependent children

Ethnic Groups 1

Salford’s ethnic make-up 2011

• White British / Irish, 85% (England 81%)

• White Other / mainly Eastern European, 5% (England 5%)

• Non White, 10% (England 14%)

• All Black & Minority Ethnic, 15% (England 19%)

Ethnic Groups 2

Change in Salford’s Black & Minority Ethnic Population 2001-11

• Black & Minority Ethnic up 183% or 22,000 (England up 77%)

• White Other up 300% or 7,000 (England up 90%)

• Black Caribbean up 1,200% or 5,000 (England up 5%)

• Lesser but still significant increases in Indian and Chinese populations.

Ethnic Groups 3 Growth in the total black and minority ethnic population of 21,731

Households – First Language 5,200 households contained no people who spoke English as a first language.

Health

Health is improving and the gap between Salford and England is closing.

The number of residents:

• in good or very good health up 31% (England up 28%).

• in bad or very bad health down 34% (England down 34%).

• with a limiting health condition down 2% (England up 6%).

Household Accommodation - 1

More housing but increased vacancy and overcrowding.

• Household spaces up 10% or 10,300 (England up 8%).

• 96% of the increase was in flats / apartments.

• Vacant household spaces up 23% or 1,000 (England up 21%).

• ‘Overcrowding’ up 79% or 4,300 (England up 32%).

Household Accommodation - 210,300 ‘additional’ household spaces 2001-2011.

Household Accommodation - 39,850 households lived in accommodation that was too small.

Qualifications

Numbers of people with qualifications at all levels increased.

• Level 1 up 3% or 800 (England down 3%)

• Level 2 up 1% or 300 (England down 5%)

• Level 3 up 87% or 11,100 (England up 79%)

• Level 4 up 88% or 19,700 (England up 66%)

Number with no qualifications down 7% or 4,000 (England down 6%)

Economic Activity 1

Some very encouraging findings.

• Economically active up 22% (England up 14%)

• Economically inactive down 7% (England down 1%).

• Employees up 16% (England up 9%)

• Self employed up 35% (England up 28%)

• Households with no adults in employment down 6% (England down 0.5%)

Economic Activity 2

…..and some less encouraging.

• Unemployment up from 6.1% to 7.7% (England up from 5.0% to 6.3%)

• People who have never worked up 161% or 1,000 (England up 150%)

• Long-term unemployed up 113% or 1,900 (England up 86%)

Occupations

Growth in the number of people with professional and technical occupations.

Residents with:

• professional occupations up 97% or 7,900 (England up 75%)

• caring & leisure occupations up 49% or 3,600 (England up 52%)

• sales & customer service occupations up 48% or 3,700 (England up 23%).

Population Projections

The Office for National Statistics data

ONS projects 58,000 population growth for Salford 2010 – 2030.

This reflects national and metropolitan trends.

Projected growth in Salford is second highest in Greater Manchester.

Population Projections

Office for National Statistics Data Salford Population Change

Comparison ONS Mid Year Estimates and Succesive Population Projections - Salford Source: ONS

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Pe

rso

ns

(0

00

s)

2003 Projection

2006 Projection

2008 Projection

2010 projection

Mid Year Estimates

Population Projections - Comparison with AGMA

Projected Cumulative Population Change (ONS 2010)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010-15 2010-20 2010-25 2010-30

Projection period

Cu

mu

lati

ve C

han

ge

(000

p

erso

ns)

Manchester

Salford

Bolton

Trafford

Wigan

Stockport

Tameside

Bury

Oldham

Rochdale

Planning for Primary School Place Provision

Primary Pupil GrowthONS population data prediction now correlates with primary school roll numbers and trends

ONS - 97% of the growth 2010-30 of 6200 will occur by 2020 after which it is predicted it will level off at this higher level

Salford LA – We currently predict the need to form 6700 places in 32 forms of entry by 2020There is good confirmation of our predictions from the ONS trends

Need to provide surplus of 5% minimum for movement of children

Need to recognise that 20% of the 6200 additional children will have additional needs = 1240 pupils

Around 200 of the 1240 will merit formal assessment and from this approximately 100 could need special school provision.

Graphs of Salford pupil trends since 1981 and our prediction to 2018

Number On Roll Trend - Primary Schools

15000

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Year

NO

R

Pupil Numbers

Schools Capacity

• All areas of Salford are affected

• 32 forms of entry extra needed in the next 8 years – currently 89 in total.

• This equates to 16 x 2 form entry schools but many possible solutions are available

• Based on recent Salford expenditure the cost of 16 new build 2FE schools would be approximately £128m however Government is seeking cheaper standardised design solutions and use of alternative buildings.

• 12 new planning areas have been developed correlating with ‘travel to learn’ patterns, community areas and natural and man-made barriers. An option appraisal for each will be developed with UV by September

• That Free Schools will influence our plans as decisions are likely to be made without reference to LA and need to work with DfE to link these into our plans to maximise use

What we have learnt

• 500 additional places were created for September 2011, • 700 additional places have been created for September 2012 in 24 schools

• In both years this has been achieved in the majority of cases through the utilisation of existing school spaces i.e. converting non classroom space into classrooms

• We installed temporary classrooms on 5 schools for September 2012 and needed 1 temporary classroom in 2011

• We have identified the options for the expansion of schools for September 2013 and held seminars for elected members, head teachers and chairs of governors to put forward their proposals.

• Working closely with neighbouring LAs is maintained to ensure cross boundary pressures are acknowledged

• Continuing to work closely with the dioceses and schools through the Stakeholder Steering Group to ensure good communication and wider ownership of the challenge.

What have we been doing?

Key Challenges

• w.e.f. 1st February 2012 Education Legislation affects ability to dispose of school sites and gain capital receipts

• Presumption that any newly established schools will be either Academies or Free Schools

• Possible late notification of a Free school application being submitted after expansion work has commenced on school sites within the same area

• Independence of VA schools – Governing Bodies of each separate school need to agree to any plans and may have conditions to agreements

• Identifying viable alternatives buildings and establishing new schools in addition to extending existing schools

• Balancing the needs of nursery and children’s centre provision on school sites

• Potential Demographic changes during the programme

Options for Expansion

• Bring back all available classroom space in schools for school use

• Extend existing schools with extensions

• Re-commission disused schools including those vacated through BSF programme

• Thru-schools in Secondary Buildings – until we need secondary places

• Acquire adjacent buildings to schools and create Key Stage on adjoining site

• Acquire other existing LA buildings for School use

• Use all LA owned brownfield sites to build new schools

Illustrative map of schools across all 12 planning areas which were increased for September 2012

And finally…

• What are the issues you want to explore?

• How can the census help you?

• Can we work together?

John Reehill

Salford City Council

john.reehill@salford.gov.uk

0161 793 3664