POPULATION CENSUS 2016 IN PAKISTAN: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS
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Transcript of POPULATION CENSUS 2016 IN PAKISTAN: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS
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CURRENT ISSUE PRESENTATION
POPULATION CENSUS 2016: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS
BY:
ABDUL QADEER ABBASI (IRS)
SPONSOR ADS:MR. AHMED IQBAL SHAHThursday, 10th September, 2015
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NFC=National Finance Commission KP=Khyber Pakhtunkhwa M=Million FATA=Federally Administered Tribal Area CCI=Counsel of Common Interest PM=Prime Minister AD=Anno Domini Indo-Pak=India-Pakistan USA=United States of America COs=Census Organizations CNIC=Computerized National Identity Card AC=Assistant Commissioner SDPO=Sub-Divisional Police Officer PCO=Population Census Organization FBS=Federal Bureau of Statics Cantt=Cantonment
ACRONYMS
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PRIMARY SOURCESMr. Iqbal Ahmed Bablani Provincial Census CommissionerMr. Farooque Ahmed BalochJoint Census Commissioner (Incharge)
Meeting on 04-09-2015 in Regional Office of Federal Bureau of Statics, Karachi
SECONDARY SOURCESNewspapersWebsites of FBS & different Government organizationsResearch papers available on internet
Pictures of Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch, Joint Census Commissioner, FBS, Karachi office and Abdul Qadeer Abbasi the participant of 20th MCMC, NIM,
Karachi
METHODOLOGY
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Currency of the Issue Introduction/ Historical
BackgroundAnalysis Issues for Policy MakersThe Way Forward
Recommendations Implementation
Measures
SEQUENCE OF PRESENTAION
*http://mediamention.info/2013/12/**http://www.thenewstribe.com/2015/04/30/pakistan-world-sixth-most-populous-country-will-conduct-census-in-2016/
accessed on 27-08-2015 6
CURRENCY OF THE ISSUE
1998 Census was held after 17 years Opposition Leader demanded fresh Census
for proper allocation of resources* Delay in census is causing anger in smaller
provinces2016 Census is to be held after 18 years**
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Bigger the Population, Bigger the Share
NFC AwardSeat Share in
ParliamentLocal Bodies PollsTarget SubsidiesQuota in jobs
CENSUS AT NATIONAL LEVEL
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Bigger the Population, Bigger the Share
Punjabi & Siraiki in Punjab
Sindhi & Urdu Speaking in Sindh
Baloch & Pashtun in Balochistan
Pashtun & Non-Pashtun in KP
CENSUS AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL
YEAR POPULATTION (M)1951* 33.7401961 42.8801972 65.3091981 84.2531998 132.3522011** 192.2882030*** 244.0002050 300.0002100 364.000
*http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/population-province-region-1951**http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-13514-Population-shoots-up-by-47-percent-since-1998***http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2015/07/31/national/pakistans-population-to-exceed-300-million-by-2050-un-report/
Accessed on 27-08-2015
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POPULATION OF PAKISTAN
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UNIT POPULATION 1998
CENSUS (M)
%
PUNJAB 73.621 55.6SINDH 30.439 23.0KP 17.743 13.4BALOCHISTAN
6.5655.0
FATA 3.176 2.4ISLAMABAD 0.805 0.6
56%
23%
13%
5% 2%1%
PUNJAB SINDH KP BALOCHISTAN FATA ISLAMABAD
http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/population-province-region-1951 Accessed on 27-08-2015
COMPARISON OF PROVINCIAL POPULATION 1998
UNIT POPULATION 2011
DATA (M)
%
PUNJAB 91.379 47.5SINDH 55.245 28.7KP 26.896 14.0BALOCHISTAN 13.162 6.8FATA 4.452 2.3ISLAMABAD 1.151 0.6
48%
29%
14%
7% 2%1%
PUNJAB SINDH KP BALOCHISTAN FATA ISLAMABAD
http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-13514-Population-shoots-up-by-47-percent-since-1998
Accessed on 27-08-201511
COMPARISON OF PROVINCIAL POPULATION 2011
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CCI MEETING & HOLDING OF CENSUS
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http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/108/240191-federal-govt-decides-to-conduct-population-census-in-march-2016.html
accessed on 27-08-2015
PM approved in CCI meeting on 18th March, 2015 holding of Population Census in March-2016 with assistance of Armed Forces
Approval of Budget for Population and Housing Census at Rs.14.5 (Billion) to be shared by Provinces
Completion of all activities including district wise data/results by December, 2015
Setting up a National Census Apex CommitteeTechnical Committees on various subjects
including experts
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“No funds have been released thus far” Asif Bajwa, Chief Statistician
Government has lost interest in its own announcement made in March, 2015
Census waste of resources, NADRA data be used http://www.dawn.com/news/1204103
accessed on 02-09-2015
Population census scrapped once again?
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CENSUS: INTRODUCTION, HISTORY , TYPES & METHODS
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CENSUS
http://www.qsa.gov.qa/QatarCensus/Census_Def.aspx accessed on 05-09-2015
CENSUSIntroduction
COUNTING
Demographic
Socio-economic
The number of persons in any community can be determined by Counting
Census is a Characteristic of population
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First complete census on ten yearly basis was taken in SWEDEN in 1749 AD*
In Indo-Pak the 1st Census was held between 1867-1872, and was repeated in 1881**
Thereafter, Census every 10th year
*h ttp://www.stat.fi/tup/vl2010/art_2011-03-18_001_en.html accessed on 05-09-2015**http://www.cicred.org/Eng/Publications/pdf/c-c38.pdf accessed on 05-09-2015
HISTORY OF CENSUS
Census may either be “de facto” or
“de jure”
http://www.qsa.gov.qa/QatarCensus/Census_Def.aspx accessed on 05-09-2015
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TYPES OF CENSUS
DE FACTO
DE JURE
A person is counted at the place he or she is found at the time of counting
A person is counted at the place of his/her normal residence
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Census are taken by :
1) Enumeration2) Questionnaire 3) Combined of both methods
Enumeration Method is used in Pakistan and USA
Questionnaire Method is used in England
METHODS OF CENSUS
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CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS & COs
21The Constitution of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, published by National Assembly of Pakistan
accessed on 05-09-2015
Census meets Legal requirements for:
Providing basis for political representation in the National and Provincial Assemblies (Article 51 (5) of Constitution)
Distribution of funds to the federating units by National Finance Commission (Article 160(2) of Constitution)
Determining quota for recruitment to all civil posts in the Federal Government
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CENSUS ORGANIZATIONS
CENSUS ORGANIZATION 1950
CENSUS & REGISTRATION ORGANIZATION 1976
POPULATION CENSUS ORGANIZATION 1978
FEDERAL BUREAU OF STATICS 2012
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DELIMITATION OF CENSUS AREAS
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For complete coverage and effective field supervision, the country has been delimited on a four-tier system, into;
Census Districts (Tehsils/ Towns and Cantts.)
Census Charges (Qanun go/ part of Town/Cantt.)
Census Circle (Patwar Circle/part of Town /Cantt.)
Census Blocks (Village, part of Village/Town) Census Block roughly comprises of 200-250 houses One Block is assigned to one Enumerator
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ISSUES FOR POLICY MAKERS:TRANSPARENCY
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Updated digitized maps of Census areas for each enumerator and supervisor
CNIC of head or any member of household may be recorded for verification
Vigilance Teams comprising AC, SDPO & Technical Officer at Census District level
Control Rooms at Census District level to redress public complaints about enumeration
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Collection of filled-in questionnaires in sealed envelopes
Census Evaluation Survey by an independent agency
Administrative Boundaries be frozen by Provincial Governments
Ban on transfers and postings of staff engaged in Census operation
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Effective & Committed Provincial Census Commissioners (PCC) for coordination between Provincial Governments & Population Census Organization
Publicity Campaign to create the awareness among masses through Print & Electronic Media
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*Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch, Joint Census Commissioner, in meeting on 04-09-2015
Census operation requires a field force of 182,000* as Enumerators and Supervisors
Services of School Teachers and employees of Local Government Departments
Participation of maximum females in the Census operation
They may be paid one month salary as remuneration
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Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch, Joint Census Commissioner (Incharge) Meeting on 04-09-2015
Photograph of Enumerator / Supervisor on serially numbered Identity Card
Appointment of Census Field Staff be ensured well before the start of operation
Training may be imparted by Senior Officers of FBS
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Law and order situation in certain parts of the country
Access of enumeration and supervisory staff in troubled areas
Security of census documents in sensitive areas
Distortion of population figures due to linguistic and ethnic feelings in certain areas
Political linkage of census data in terms of representations in assemblies and distribution of financial resources among provinces has made census a sensitive issue
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RECOMMENDATION IMPLEMENTATION
Freezing Representation of seats in Parliament (Indian Model)
The CCI, Parliament & Federal Government
Apportionment of NFC Award on multi-factors i.e. population, need, backwardness, revenue generation and area basis
The CCI, Parliament & Federal Government
Permanent & Autonomous Census Organization
The Federal Government
THE WAY FORWARD
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RECOMMENDATION IMPLEMENTATIONCensus Organization should be:
Headed by a permanent professional population scholar and re searcher having fixed tenure
The Federal Government
Data Evaluation Function should be built in the budget
The Federal Government
THE WAY FORWARD
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RECOMMENDATION IMPLEMENTATION
The policy decisions at the Federal, Provincial and Local level should be taken on the basis of data collected, compiled, tabulated resulting in logical inferences rather than on personal whims and petty political & ethnic interests
The Federal Government, Provincial Governments & Local Governments
THE WAY FORWARD
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