POPULATION AND REPRODUCTION

Robert McNamara, former President of the World Bank:

“Short of thermonuclear war itself, population growth is the gravest issue the world faces over the decades ahead.”

THE POPULATION ISSUE

How its studied: Demography = the analysis of population

changes and characteristics.

Population = births (levels of fertility) - deaths (mortality rates) + in-migration - out-migration

THE NUMBERS GAME

Historical and Contemporary Trends in Population Growth

1 billion in 1804 2 billion in 1927 (123 years later) 3 billion in 1960 (33 years later) 4 billion in 1974 (14 years later) 5 billion in 1987 (13 years later) 6 billion in 1999 (12 years later) 9 billion in 2050 (US Census Bureau est.)

PERSPECTIVES ON THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION CHANGE

Thomas Malthus: Essay on the Principle of Population

The Core Principles Food is necessary for human existence. Human population tends to grow faster

than food production

Humans tend not to limit their population size voluntarily (Malthus: "preventive checks")

Population reduction through "positive" checks of famine, disease, poverty and war.

http://www.igc.org/desip/malthus/principles.html

Paul Ehrlich -- The Population Bomb (1968)

Neo-Malthusian: Overpopulation > environmental degradation

warns of the dangers of energy consumption, urban sprawl, air and water pollution, and disappearing farmland as developing countries race to achieve their economic aspirations

International Efforts to Reduce Population Growth

1974 World Population Conference in Bucharest: how to slow population growth in developing world?

1984 International Population Conference in Mexico City: Pressure from Religious orgs.

1994 International Conference on Population and Development in Cairo: demographic transition and empowering women

The Good News:

Global fertility has fallen from 5 births per woman in the 1950s to 2.7 births per woman. The net increase in decline since 1989,

when annual growth topped out at more than 86 million.

American Demographics, June 1999

The Bad News:

Population Momentum: One billion teenagers are just entering their

reproductive years - The largest "youthquake" ever.

The world is growing by more than 76 million people a year (1.33% annually). Doubling in 50 years

http://www.overpopulation.org/faq.html

‘Third World’ and global population trends

Contemporary population trend

90% of the world's births occurred in LDCs in 1998.

96-99% of global natural increase -- the difference between numbers of births and deaths -- occurs in the developing world

Jean-Marie Le Pen (Leader, National Front and French Presidential candidate, 2002)

The Economist, November 16, 2002“The greatest challenge is demographic. The

countries of the north – the world of the white man, or let’s say the non-black world – have an ageing population. They are rich, and they are facing a third world of 5 billion people, maybe more tomorrow, who are very young and dynamic. This dynamism will be translated into immigration.”

Explaining ‘Third World’ population trend

1) High rates of fertility Why?

Lower rates of literacy Earlier marriage fewer opportunities for women lower life expectancy

Life expectancies at birth, 1998 (in years)

Western Europe 78 North America 76 Latin America and the Caribbean 69 Asia 65 Sub-Saharan Africa 49

Explaining ‘Third World’ population trend

2) Failed modernization = failed demographic transition

Third World population trend: Seeking solutions Empowering Third World women = low

population growth Policy initiatives:

family planning programs Increased Use of Female Contraception, Sterilization and

Abortion Spread in Use of Condoms Recent changes with focus on male practices

The politics of empowerment

Solutions largely top-down, high-tech, many aimed at controlling female fertility, mainly aimed at LDCs

Third Women critical of the neo-imperialist tendencies of the global reproduction rights movement

Global reproduction rights movement: North-South Divide

Views from the Global South international forums e.g, UN’s International

Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, emphasis on sexual issues reflecting the experience of women in the core

Narrow definition of women’s reproduction rights (need to be situated within broader social, economic and political context)

Rapid industrialization

Rapid industrialization=demographic transition

Often cited example: South Korea Holds the distinction of having undergone

the demographic transition due to rapid industrialization process

South Korea

South Korea’s demographic transition (the fastest demographic transition in history)

Some numbers: 1960 birth rate 41 1980 birth rate 20

Sources of S. Korea’s successful demographic transition Historical development

nature of Japanese colonialism (establishment of an industrial base, land reforms)

Expanded land reforms (during the American military rule in the late 1940s)

Educational reforms: Mass access to formal schooling (1945- 64% children attended primary school; 1960- 95.3%

Post-1960 rapid industrialization (support from the post-1945 international liberal order due to east-west tensions

the nature of the S. Korean state (development state)

Colonial restructuring of class structure, industrialization, and education reforms=fertility decline in all regions and across classes in South Korea.

Critical issues: paying attention to historical realities

Third World population growth and Globalization III

Empowering women: Globalization III

What are the prospects?

Reduced social spending implications for women (economic, health, education)

Rapid industrialization limited prospects

emphasis on increasing exports industrialization trend (with the exception of

China) -off shore production sites with no linkage to local industrialization processes

Beyond neo-liberalism:

Is Third World industrialization possible given the current environmental crisis?

World Pop-clock

http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html