Review of 2040 Population and

Employment Data January 13, 2014

• Socio-economic data (SE Data) defined• Why forecasts are developed• Developing future estimates• Observations on 2040 forecast• Maps• Using the forecasts to inform transportation decisions

Overview

Two primary components• Population

o Permanent Residents (Census)o Future based on historic and projected trendso Distributed among housing types

• Employmento Actual jobs available within St. Lucie Countyo Relationship with historic population is used to project

future employment

Definition of socio-economic data

• Federal statues require the use a travel demand model to project future traffic volumes.

• Inputs into the travel demand model include population and employment projections for the year 2040.

• Resulting traffic projections are considered in determining needed improvements in 2040.

Why forecasts are developed

• Countywide estimates for populationo University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR)o Staff / technical committee review

• Control Totals:

Developing Future Estimates

2010 2040 Growth Percent

Population 275,598 454,200 178,602 64.81%

Employment 95,059 150,361 55,302 58.18%

• Employmento Based on 2010 ratioso Broken down into 3 categories

2010 2040 Growth Percent

Employment 95,059 150,361 55,302 58.18%

Industrial 18,260 29,550 11,290 61.83%

Commercial 23,897 38,088 14,191 59.38%

Service 52,902 82,723 29,821 56.37%

Developing Future Estimates

• Population growth primarily in the SW annexation area with additional population growth along Jenkins Road corridor

• Employment growth primarily in the SW annexation area with additional employment growth along Kings Highway corridor

• Industrial employment growth also in Airport area

• Commercial employment growth scattered throughout TPO area

• Service employment is largest component of employment growth

Observations on the 2040 Forecast

Maps - Future Land Use

Maps - Vacant developable land - 1 acre or less

Maps - Approved development

Maps - Population Growth

Maps - Employment Growth

Employment growth- industrial

Employment growth- commercial

Employment growth- service

Using the forecast

• Future population and employment are inputs to the travel model

• Existing travel patterns are used to simulate future travel

• Allows for quantitative identification of needs

• Decisions about future roads or transit service

Maps - Population Growth

Maps - Population Growth

Questions?