PopulationAP Human Geography

Unit 3

Ecumene

…the portion of the earth with

permanent human settlement, has

expanded to cover most of the

world’s land area…possibilism? Heartbeat

Distribution of World Population

• Sparsely populated regions

• Dry lands

– Cold lands• Wet

lands

– High lands

World Population Density

Europe (11%) East Asia (20%)

South Asia (20%)

Southeast Asia (8%)

North America 2-5%

Total Population7,083,460,000Inside3,637,830,357 (51.4%)

China: 1,349,585,838India: 1,220,800,359Indonesia: 251,160,124Bangladesh: 163,654,860Japan: 127,253,075Philippines: 105,720,644Vietnam: 92,477,857Thailand: 67,448,120Burma: 55,167,330South Korea: 48,955,203Nepal: 30,430,267Malaysia: 29,628,392North Korea: 24,720,407Taiwan: 23,299,716Sri Lanka: 21,675,648Cambodia: 15,205,539Laos: 6,695,166Mongolia: 3,226,516Bhutan: 725,296

Arithmetic Population Density

Arithmetic population density is the number of people per total land area.

Physiological Density

Physiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is a good

measure of the relation between population and agricultural resources in a society.

Crude Birth Rates

The crude birth rate (CBR) is the total number of births in a country per 1000 population per

year.

Crude Death Rates

The crude death rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a country per 1000

population per year. Why is Europe so high?

Natural Increase Rates

The natural increase rate (NIR) is the

percentage growth or decline in the

population of a country per year (not

including net migration).

What is doubling time?

Simple vs. Compound Interest

Compound

$100.00 + $10.00 = $110.00

$110.00 + $11.00 = $121.00

$121.00 + $12.10 = $133.10

$133.10 + $13.31 = $146.41

$146.41 + $14.64 = $161.05

$161.05 + $16.10 = $177.15

$177.15 + $17.72 = $194.87

$194.87 + $19.49 = $214.36

Simple

$100.00 + $10.00 = $110.00

$110.00 + $10.00 = $120.00

$120.00 + $10.00 = $130.00

$130.00 + $10.00 = $140.00

$140.00 + $10.00 = $150.00

$150.00 + $10.00 = $160.00

$160.00 + $10.00 = $170.00

$170.00 + $10.00 = $180.00

Conclusion: At 10% it takes less then 8 years for compound interest to double the initial amount. If we continued, we'd find that the amount tripled in 12 years, quadrupled in 15 years, etc.

Infant Mortality Rates

The infant mortality rate is the number of infant deaths per 1000 live births per year.

Life Expectancy at birth

Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live.

Total Fertility Rates

The Total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children an average woman in a society will

have through her childbearing years.

Baby-O-Matic

Give yourself points as follows:

1. A:1; B:2; C:3

2. A:3; B:3; C:2

3. A:3; B:2; C:2

4. A:1; B:3; C:2

5. A:1; B:2; C:3

6. A:2; B:3

7. A:3; B:2; C:1

8. A:3; B:1; C:2

Your Score:

11: 0 children

12-14: 1 child

15-17: 2 children

18: 3 children

19-24: 4 or more children

Baby-O-Matic

1. Why do countries have different rates of natural increase and different fertility rates? Why do these rates change?

2. Which factors would you argue are most important?

3. As you think about your parents and your current family, do these indicators hold true?

4. Does anyone think they have the wrong answer? Why do you think this may have happened?

What is a model?

…an abstract generalization of real-world geographies that share a common pattern…assumption of reality that may be valid and may not

Demographic Transition Model

Warren Thompson (1887-1973), American demographer

•Birth and death rates change because…• Changes in economic systems (from traditional to

industrial, etc.)• Changes in information about health and

healthcare• Changes in people’s attitudes about family size

and gender… religion???

Demographic Transition ModelStage

5—

De

creasin

g po

pu

lation

ZPG—Zero Population Growth

Industrial Revolution (in Europe and West)Why in Latin America, Africa and Asia???

What countries fit which stages?

Population Pyramid by Stage

US Population Pyramid

Population Pyramid: Bar chart that shows the age and sex structure of the population

Population Pyramids in U.S. cities

World Population Explosion

In 2005 the United States and Canada had a higher crude death rate than Mexico because they(a) are larger countries (b) received more immigrants (c) had more elderly people (d) had a higher standard of living (e) spent more on health care

1980

CBR 42

CDR 11

TFR 7.0

Name That Stage

25 Years Ago?

Rapid Growth in Cape Verde

Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is

experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of

famines and out-migration.

Moderate Growth in Chile

Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered

stage 3 in the 1960s.

Low Growth in Denmark

Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s,

with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows

increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

Stage 5

Problems of Stability or Decline

• Dependency Ratio

Percent of Population under 15

About one-third of world population is under 15, but the percentage by country varies from

over 40% in most of Africa and some Asian countries, to under 20% in much of

Europe…Dependency Ratio

Other Side of Dependency

• What about a large under 15 population?

Thomas Malthus

• What is overpopulation? • Carrying capacity

• 18th Century England—“Worldly Philosopher”

• An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798

• What did Malthus miss or was he right???

• Neo-Malthusians (Doomers) vs. Cornucopians (Boomers)

• Critics

1950-2000—Malthus vs. Actual Trends

A more optimistic approach

• Ester Boserup (1910-1999)—a boomer

• Wrote “The Conditions of Agricultural Growth” in 1965

• People have resources of knowledge and technology to increase food supply as necessary

• Environments have limits that restrict population, but these limits can be changed using technologies

• Population growth is the trigger for innovation to allow food supply to increase

• e.g. irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seed quality, tools, techniques, etc.

Was Boserup right?

• Evidence which supports Boserup:• Increasing intensity of shifting cultivation

• Move from ‘slash and burn’ practices to using irrigation in rural areas with higher population densities

• The Green Revolution – widespread introduction of high-yielding varieties, pesticides etc—increased yields

• GMOs – Genetically Modified Organisms

• On the other hand…• Boserup admits that overpopulation can lead to unsuitable farming practices

which may degrade the land• E.g. population pressure as one of the reasons for desertification in the Sahel region

Comparing Policies

Consider India, Japan, and Kenya…

1. What is the population trend for each country?

2. What are the problems facing each country?

3. Describe the population policies instituted by each of the following countries to address their particular issue.

Crude Birth Rate Decline, 1980-2005

Crude birth rates declined in most countries during the 1980s and 1990s (though the

absolute number of births per year increased from about 120 to 130 million).

Population Policies: India

• How do democracies institute population controls?

• How might their programs differ from authoritarian regimes?

“Wait until the 1st child is 3 before having your 2nd”

Population Policies: Reducing the Rate of Natural Increase

1. Economic Development• Female education

• Opportunities can alter view of childbearing

• Healthcare

• Infant mortality

2. Distribution of Contraceptives

• “Band-Aid solution”

“High Mortality=Fast Population Growth”

Population Policies: China

Population Policies: China

In the 1970s the Chinese government had issued three policies to reduce the birth rate: “Later, longer, fewer”

• Late marriage – men were encouraged to marry no earlier than 28 years old (25 in rural areas) and women no earlier than 25 years old (23 in rural areas)

• Longer spacing between births – couples were encouraged to allow at least a four-year gap after the first child before having another baby

• Fewer children – it was suggested that urban families should be limited to two children, and rural families to three children

Population Policies: China

Article 47 This Law shall go into effect as of September 1, 2002. (the law began in 1979)

• Article 18 The State maintains its current policy for reproduction, encouraging late marriage and childbearing and advocating one child per couple.

• Article 22 Discrimination against, maltreatment and abandonment of baby girls are prohibited.

• Article 27 The State shall issue to a couple who volunteer to have only one child in their lifetime a “Certificate of Honour for Single-Child Parents”. Couples who are issued the said certificate shall enjoy rewards.

• Article 35 Use of ultrasonography or other techniques to identify fetalgender for non-medical purposes is strictly prohibited. Sex-selective pregnancy termination for non-medical purposes is strictly prohibited.

• Article 41 Citizens who give birth to babies not in compliance with the provisions of Article 18 of this Law shall pay a social maintenance fee prescribed by law. ($1,500 fine)

Population Policies: China

One-Child Policy…Two-Child Reality• There are no criminal sanctions for couples who have multiple births.

• Wealthy couples are increasingly turning to have multiple births, due to the lack of penalties against fertility medicines couples who have more than one child in their first birth. (ie. triplets and twins)

• If both parents are only children they are allowed tohave more than one child provided the children are spaced more than 4 years

• In most rural areas if the first child is a girl couples are allowed to have another child

• Families who have children with mental or physical disabilities are sometimes allowed to have another child

• Some parents manage to be outside the country or in Hong Kong, Macau, or Taiwan when giving birth to their child. Those children do not count in the one-child policy, even if they are technically a natural born Chinese citizen through parentage.

Population Policies: China

2012 China Population: 1,343,239,923

2050 Projected Population: 1,424,000,000

Pop. Growth Rate: 0.481% (2012)

TFR (2009): 1.6

2012 India Population: 1,205,073,612

2050 Projected Population: 1,807,000,000

Pop. Growth Rate: 1.312% (2012)

TFR (2009): 2.6

China is expected to be overtaken by India as the

world’s most populous country in the next 25 years.

Population Policies: China

“It took humankind 13 years to add its 7 billionth. That’s longer than the 12 years it took to add the 6 billionth—the first time in human history that interval had grown. (The 2 billionth, 3 billionth, 4 billionth, and 5 billionth took 123, 33, 14, and 13 years, respectively.) In other words, the rate of global population growth has slowed…Austria’s International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis foresee the global population maxing out at 9 billion some time around 2070. On the bright side, the long-dreaded resource shortage may turn out not to be a problem at all. On the not-so-bright side, the demographic shift toward more retirees and fewer workers could throw the rest of the world into the kind of interminable economic stagnation that Japan is experiencing right now…if the world stabilizes at a total fertility rate of 1.5—where Europe is today—then by 2200 the global population will fall to half of what it is today. By 2300, it’ll barely scratch 1 billion…We know how to dampen excessive population growth—just educate girls. The other problem has proved much more intractable: No one’s figured out how to boost fertility in countries where it has imploded.”

Forget Overcrowding. The World Population Could Start Declining. By Jeff Wise—Wednesday, Jan. 9, 2013

Population Policies:

• Pro-Natalist• Germany prior to/during WWII, Singapore (pays $18,000 per child…birthrate

of 1.2 TFR), Iran

• Starting on July 8, 1944 the government of the U.S.S.R. began awarding medals to women in order to encourage a high fertility rate.

"the Europeans are dying out…and gay marriages don't produce children…Do you want to survive by accepting immigrants?... society can't absorb such a number of immigrants. Let us make our own choice, as we see it for our country.”

Vladimir Putin, Washington PostSeptember, 19, 2013—response to criticism of Russia’s laws discriminating against homosexuals

Conception Day

• Cash Incentives for Russians who conceive on September 12 and give birth on June 12.

• Regional Governor awarded cars.

• Boys to Men Concert in Red Square

Epidemiologic Transition

Stage 1: Pestilence & famine (Black Plague)

Stage 2: Receding pandemics • Urbanization/population issues—Cholera (John Snow)

Stage 3: Degenerative & human-caused diseases (cardiovascular disease, “heart attack” & cancer)

• Decline in infectious disease

Stage 4: Delayed degenerative diseases (cardiovascular disease & cancer)

Stage 5: Emergence & reemergence of infectious & parasitic diseases (AIDS, SARS, TB, Ebola, West Nile, etc.)

• Why a return to infectious disease?

According to the WHO…

Q: How many people die every year?

• In 2011, an estimated 55 million people died worldwide.

Q: What kills more people: infectious diseases or noncommunicablediseases?

• Noncommunicable diseases were responsible for two-thirds of all deaths globally in 2011, up from 60% in 2000. The four main NCDs are cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes and chronic lung diseases. Communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutrition conditions collectively were responsible for a quarter of global deaths, and injuries caused 9% of all deaths.

According to the WHO…

Q: What are the main differences between rich and poor countries with respect to causes of death?

• In high-income countries, 7 in every 10 deaths are among people aged 70 years and older. People predominantly die of chronic diseases: cardiovascular diseases, cancers, dementia , chronic obstructive lung disease or diabetes. Lower respiratory infections remain the only leading infectious cause of death. Only 1 in every 100 deaths are among children under 15 years.

• In low-income countries, nearly 4 in every 10 deaths are among children under 15 years, and only 2 in every 10 deaths are among people aged 70 years and older. People predominantly die of infectious diseases: lower respiratory infections, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, malaria and tuberculosis collectively account for almost one third of all deaths in these countries. Complications of childbirth due to prematurity, and birth asphyxia and birth trauma are among the leading causes of death, claiming the lives of many newborns and infants.

Cholera in London,

1854

By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John

Snow identified the source of the water-borne epidemic.

Tuberculosis Death Rates

The tuberculosis death rate is good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care.

TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious disease killers.

Avian Flu, 2003 - 2006

The first cases of avian flu in this outbreak were reported in Southeast Asia.

HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005

The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large

numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present. (Gapminder)

South AfricaBotswana

Zimbabwe

Swaziland

China’s Lost Girls

1. Based on the video, as well as information from your text and handouts, how successful has the program been?

2. Describe the unintended consequences of the Chinese policy.

3. After watching the video, do you believe that this policy is something that should be instituted in other countries? Be sure to provide support for your opinion.

AIDS in Africa Video

1. Which countries/programs were at least somewhat successful in preventing the spread of AIDS?

2. What strategies worked for groups and countries when trying to stop the AIDS epidemic in Africa?

3. What can/should MDC’s (ie. the United States) and pharmaceutical companies do, if anything?