POLITICAL SUCCESSION IN NIGERIA:

CONCEPTS THAT TRAVEL

MINION K. C. MORRISONPROFESSOR AND HEAD

POLITICAL SCIENCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATIONMISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY

WESTERN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATIONSAN FRANCISCO, APRIL 2, 2010

POLITICAL SUCCESSION

ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS MODERN DEMOCRATIC

GOVERNMENTS DO

COMPARING SUCCESSION IN NIGERIA

What we think about when we think of Nigeria?

NIGERIAA Checkered Succession History

REPUBLIC 1: PARLIAMENTARY FEDERALISM1960-1966

___________________________

MILITARY AUTHORITARIANISM1966

1966-1973 CIVIL WAR 1967-1970

1973-1979_____________________________________

REPUBLIC II: PRESIDENTIALISM 1979-1983

____________________________________

MILITARY AUTHORITARIANISM1985 – 1998

________________________________________

REPUBLIC III: PRESIDENTIALISM 1999 FORWARD

SUCCEEDING PROBLEM? SO HARD TO DO!

What is Political Succession

• SUCCESSION IS TRANSITION FROM ONE LEADER TO ANOTHER

Political Succession Occurs when

A NEW PRINCIPAL LEADER EXERCISES PRIMARY CONTROL OVER THE PERSONNEL AND POLICY APPARATUS

BUSH BOWS OUT TO OBAMA

Why is Succession So difficult?

IT’S ALL ABOUT POWER

• POWER CORRUPTS• THE TANTALIZING AURA OF

POWER• TRANSITION TO WHAT?• POWER YIELDS NOTHING

DEMOCRACY AND SUCCESSION

SUSPICIONS AND REVERENCELEADERS, WHILE NECESSARY, ARE

INHERENTLY TO BE FEARED AND DISTRUSTED

TYRANNYTHE VOICE OF THE PEOPLE

LEGISLATIVE PRIMACYREGULAR TRANSITIONS

ELECTIONS

Exercise

TRACE AND COMPARE THE HISTORY OF SUCCESSION IN

GREAT BRITAIN RUSSIA CHINA

_______________

1. SHOW HOW LONG THESE PROCESSES TOOK2. ARE THESE PROCESSES COMPLETE? EXPLAIN3. COMPARE THESE CASES TO NIGERIA

WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT POLITICAL SUCCESSION IN AFRICA?

THE NIGERIAN THIRD REPUBLICAND SUCCESSION

• OBASANJO SERVED TWO TERM LIMIT, 1999-2007

• OBASANGO HANDED OVER POWER TO YAR’ ADUA 2007

YAR ADUA DISABILITY• YAR ADUA FELLED BY ILLNESS

LEAVING THE EXERCISE OF STATE POWER IN SUSPENSION

• ADUA REFUSES TO HAND OVER POWER TO VP PER CONSTITUTION

• LEGISLATURE APPOINTS VP GOOD LUCK JONATHAN ACTING PRESIDENT 2010

CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION ISECTION 144 

• (1) The President or Vice-President shall cease to hold office, if - (a) by a resolution passed by two-thirds majority of all the members of the executive council of the Federation it is declared that the President or Vice-President is incapable of discharging the functions of his office; and (b) the declaration is verified, after such medical examination as may be necessary, by a medical panel established under subsection (4) of this section in its report to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION II

SECTION 145 "Whenever the President transmits to the

President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives a written declaration that he is proceeding on vacation or that he is otherwise unable to discharge the functions of his office, until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary such functions shall be discharged by the Vice-President as Acting President."

RISKS FOR NIGERIAA TRANSITIONAL DEMOCRACY

POLITICAL CRISIS BORNE OF:

COUP CULTUREETHNIC STRIFERELIGIOUS STRIFEECONOMIC CRISISILLIBERAL DEMOCRACYLACK OF CONSOLIDATION

RETURN TO COMPARE

SUCCESSION ISSUES IN OLDER DEMOCRACIES

BUSH V GORE IN USATONY BLAIR DEPARTURE IN UKPUTIN DEPARTURE IN RUSSIA

CONCLUSION

AS ANCIENT WESTERN THEORISTS PREDICTED, SUCCESSION IS A GENERAL PROBLEM FOR GOVERNMENTS

ROUTINE PROBLEM FOR STABLE MODERN GOVERNMENTS ARTICULATE BODY POLITIC

EXAGGERATED PROBLEM FOR TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENTSILLIBERAL DEMOCRACIES

NIGERIA OFFERS SPECIAL BENEFITS FOR COMPARING EXECUTIVE SUCCESSION