Dr. Tabakian’s Political Science 7 Modern World Governments – Spring 2013

Supplemental Power Point Material #11

LECTURE HIGHLIGHTS (1) • State Interdependence • Foreign Policy Impacts Domestic Politics • International Organizations • Towards European Integration • Why Some Don’t Embrace Democracy • From Wilson’s 14 Points to The United Nations • Institutions Remain Strong Post-Cold War • Human Rights As Foreign Policy • Conventional Forces • Types Of Forces • Evolving Technologies • Terrorism

LECTURE HIGHLIGHTS (2) • Weapons Of Mass Destruction • Nuclear Weapons • Examples of Nuclear Weapons • Ballistic Missiles & Other Delivery Systems • Chemical & Biological Weapons • Proliferation • Nuclear Strategy & Arms Control • Military Economies • Control Of Military Forces • Stabilization • Instability

STATE INTERDEPENDENCY (1) Societal interdependence addresses situations in which events within one society affect events in another. Government involvement in instigating these events does not have to take place for this to occur. Transnational relations helped to encourage interdependency between states. Nation-states interdependent on one another presented each with economic and political trade-offs whereas gains in one may lead to the weakening of another. Economic gains that may be derived from external sources that are able to produce them more efficiently while only retaining those industries that are efficient may allow a state to achieve higher overall productivity. This comes at a price when a state becomes so dependent on foreign sources of goods that it affects how its foreign policy is conducted.

STATE INTERDEPENDENCY (2) As a state becomes more interdependent on one another it also serves to prevent it from acting overly aggressive against those states that it has become dependent. Interdependence reversed the low levels of political optimism beginning in the 1970s that established linkages between the West, Latin America, and Asia and culminated with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

STATE INTERDEPENDENCY (3) Simple interdependency is morphing into a complex interdependence that was uniting economic and political interests of states into one cohesive block. War among the advanced states became unthinkable as interdependence made it ever more costly. Interdependent world of liberal-democratic states can at some point in time lead to world peace. Regardless of these economic forces, security concerns as well as the drive for national honor can overrule the costs associated with breaking linkages. Countries that wish to attract foreign investments or accrue technological innovations have to wear a “golden straitjacket”. This is a set of policies that include balanced budgets, economic deregulation, free trade, a stable currency and most importantly an overall transparency so that people can predict the overall direction of a country.

STATE INTERDEPENDENCY (4) Societal and economic interdependence can interlink the domestic policies of two nation-states. Take the example of Canada and the United States. The high degree of societal interdependence assures that Canada will be strongly affected by American policies. The most powerful nation-state can more affect the policies of another country interdependent on its society as the US and Canada example shows.

STATE INTERDEPENDENCY (5) Underlying most analyses of world politics and international organization is the state-centric approach. This makes two assumptions: (1) Governments remain the most significant actors in world

politics. (2) Governments are unified actors. Transgovernmental is a

reference to direct interactions between agencies (government subunits) of different governments where those agencies act relatively autonomously from central governmental control.

FOREIGN POLICY IMPACTS DOMESTIC POLITICS (1)

The quest continues for researchers to explain conflict and integration in a fashion that allows for the political sciences to understand how the relationship between the structure of the international system and the patterns of foreign policy impacts domestic politics and political structures of a given country’s foreign policy. Understanding these international – domestic linkages would further allow researchers to study decision-making and bureaucratic process and how they affect foreign policy behavior. Scholars have sought to explain how the international system affects domestic political systems and subsystems.

FOREIGN POLICY IMPACTS DOMESTIC POLITICS (2)

Realists are prone to argue that the anarchic international system affects domestic policies and those subservient systems, as national survival requires the functions of the nation-state to coordinate its policies. Neo-realists would argue that it works both ways with the international system affecting domestic policies and vice versa. National-interests do not merely have to deal with survival, but also other interests that may vary according to moral, economic or even the quest for additional resources for consumption.

FOREIGN POLICY IMPACTS DOMESTIC POLITICS (3)

Kenneth Waltz refers to globalization as a homogenization process that equalizes prices, products, wages, wealth, rates of interest and profit margins. It is a movement that can spark resistance both within the United States as well as around the world. This can come from religious fundamentalists, and labor unions. Thomas Friedman would disagree with Tip O’Neill’s assertion that “all politics are local”. Friedman would say this was wrong, for all politics is now global in nature, “The electronic herd turns the whole world into a parliamentary system, in which every government lives under the fear of a no-confidence vote from the herd”. It is interesting to point out here that most economies remain local. In fact those countries with the largest economies do most of their business domestically.

TOWARDS EUROPEAN INTEGRATION (1)

The European Union is a supranational organization of 27 European member states. With the goal of establishing political and economic union, some member states—particularly the United Kingdom—fear the establishment of a pan-European “superstate.” As the European Union has expanded from 15 members when it was created in 1995, to 27 members in 2007 (and with still more members on the horizon), it addresses a greater number of policy areas and is an increasingly important actor on the world stage.

TOWARDS EUROPEAN INTEGRATION (2)

Discussions to develop a new European Constitution began in 1994. While progress was quickly made in some areas, in other areas negotiations faltered. As of 2007, the future of the new European Constitution is uncertain. Already, twenty EU members have ratified the Constitution, and several others are in the process of ratifying the document. However, to come into force, the European Constitution has to be ratified by all EU member states, and voters in France and the Netherlands have already rejected the Constitution in popular referenda.

WHY SOME DON’T EMBRACE DEMOCRACY

Consolidated democracies possess capitalist economies with less certain democracies making slow progress in this regard, while authoritarian governments are most likely to shun from economic reform. Various reasons exist why some countries have failed to fully embrace liberal and free-market reforms. First, the public may have different opinions about these reforms that may or may not be equally shared by opposition forces. Second, how the transition to liberal and free-market reforms are undertaken can affect the decision of authoritarian elites to trade in their political capital for economic gains. Third, the method of the transition to capitalism can determine what side wins or loses. Fourth, degrees of nationalism can determine whether political leaders are able to hold their society together during the tribulation transformation to democracy.

WILSON’S 14 POINTS TO THE UN (1) World War I, or commonly referred to at that time as the Great War, originated in Europe due to mounting militant nationalism that had been escalating for decades. With the immediate cause of the war being the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary by Gavrilo Princip, a 19-year old Serbian nationalist, in Sarajevo on June 18, 1914. As the war began to spread across Europe, President Woodrow Wilson appeared before a joint session of Congress on April 2, 1917 to ask for a declaration of war against Germany.

WILSON’S 14 POINTS TO THE UN (2) President Woodrow Wilson addressed the United States Congress on January 8, 1918 to enunciate American war aims construed in “The Fourteen Points”, with the last point establishing “A general association of nations…affording mutual guarantees of political independence and territorial integrity to great and small states alike.” However, only the world’s acceptance of all 14 points could the establishment of a general association of nations be made. Woodrow Wilson’s proclamation that America’s entrance into World War I was a crusade to “make the world safe for democracy” would in turn present an opportunity for his 14 points to construct and maintain world peace.

WILSON’S 14 POINTS TO THE UN (3) Wilson had borne witness to the frightfulness of war. Born in Virginia in 1856, the son of a Presbyterian minister who during the Civil War was a pastor in Augusta, Georgia, and during Reconstruction a professor in the charred city of Columbia, South Carolina. In time, Woodrow Wilson established a philosophy based upon Communitarianism measured in part through Idealism. Perhaps the last American President to enter into office professing such beliefs, it had a profound impact on those policies pursued by his Administration.

WILSON’S 14 POINTS TO THE UN (4) The Communitarianism methodology of Woodrow Wilson emanates throughout “The Fourteen Points”, through his enunciation of secret dialogues among nation states, his attempt to offer suggestions of reconciliation to those nation states that continue to maintain disputes among neighbors, as well as the call for a newly established world order consisting of a general association of nations for purpose of affording mutual guarantees. However, one may also witness the underlying idealist methodology of Wilson, for “The Fourteen Points” does not reflect human nature, or in this case the relationships of nation states. Wilson’s proposition is based upon his communitarianist-idealist theories on the good of man, not the harsh realities of human nature.

WILSON’S 14 POINTS TO THE UN (5) “The Fourteen Points” does not reflect the reality of the times during which it was authored, for there still remained issues that required nation states to address, whether militarily or diplomatically. It can be argued quite effectively that “The Fourteen Points” was the actual starting point of what is today the United Nations. However, what Woodrow Wilson proposed is certainly not the consortium of mutual goodwill and understanding among nation states. Human nature remains prevalent, so we shall continue to live in a world that harbors a consortium of nation states bidding to achieve dominance among neighbors. As we have yet to achieve a worldwide higher consciousness among mankind that would allow unity among nation states, it is understood that Woodrow Wilson’s philosophy was certainly ahead of not only his time, but for generations to come.

INSTITUTIONS REMAIN STRONG POST-COLD WAR

Neo-liberalism institutionalism accurately proclaimed that NATO, the European Union and other institutions would not disappear following the end of the Cold War as realists had incorrectly assumed. Institutionalist research even drew on US politics to understand why these organizations like NATO continued to exist. One argument is that member states saw it to be in their best interests to remain committed to institutions which preserved level playing fields as well as serving as guarantees to their security. Institutionalist thinking has even launched research programs within International Political Economy over the past 15 years that made students aware of relationships existing between interests, power, and institutions.

HUMAN RIGHTS AS FOREIGN POLICY The rise of international law and the recognition of universal human rights have in turn affected those processes available for states to control. To sum up, it can be argued that we are approaching a time when a world of regions maintain states that remain sovereign, yet committed to universal principles that in turn create new political arenas that maintain relations between actors. Glocalization assists us with understanding how this is taking place. The theory focuses on the relationships among units that according to John Mearsheimer “are transforming the identities, interests, and strategies of actors through a combination of global and local processes and are thus adding new political actors and processes to an increasingly global politics.” Human rights has become a fundamental principle of American Foreign Policy.

CONVENTIONAL FORCES (1)

• State leaders involved in a conflict can use various kinds of leverage to reach a more favorable outcome: – Nonviolent levers – foreign aid, economic

sanctions, and personal diplomacy, etc. – Violent levers – violent actions such as sending

out armies, suicide bombers, or missiles. • Costly to the sender and receiver and tend to

be a last resort. • Declining in use over time.

CONVENTIONAL FORCES (2)

• Most states, however, still devote vast resources to military capabilities. – Defending territories. – Deter attack. – Compel other states to behave certain

ways by threatening an attack. – Humanitarian assistance for disasters. – Surveillance of drug trafficking. – Repression of political dissent.

CONVENTIONAL FORCES (3)

• Great powers continue to dominate the makeup of world military forces.

• Military capabilities divide into three types: – conventional forces. – irregular forces. – weapons of mass destruction.

TYPES OF FORCES (1) • Most wars involve a struggle to control territory.

– The fundamental purpose of conventional forces is to take, hold, or defend territory.

• Armies: – Infantry: foot soldiers who use assault rifles and

other light weapons. • Counter-insurgency:

– Includes programs to “win the hearts and minds” of populations so they stop sheltering the guerrillas.

– Guerrillas often use landmines, which continue to harm populations even after the war is over.

TYPES OF FORCES (2) • Navies:

– Adapted primarily to control passage through the seas and to attack land near coastlines.

– Aircraft carries – instruments of power projections • Air Forces:

– Strategic bombing of land or sea targets, close air support, interception of other aircraft, reconnaissance, and airlift.

• Logistics and intelligence: – GPS. – NSA. – Budgets of U.S. intelligence agencies: $44 billion

(2005).

EVOLVING TECHNOLOGIES

• The resort to force in international conflicts now has more profound costs and consequences than in the past, causing massive destruction and economic ruin.

• Military engagements now occur across greater standoff distances between opposing forces. – Missiles

• Electronic warfare. • Stealth technology.

TERRORISM (1)

• Political violence that targets civilians deliberately and indiscriminately. – But one person’s freedom fighter is

another’s terrorist. – Shadowy world of faceless enemies and

irregular tactics marked by extreme brutality.

TERRORISM (2)

• Primary effect of terrorism is psychological: – World Trade Center. – Violation of norms of the international

system. • State-sponsored terrorism:

– Use of terrorist groups by states. – Libya example. – North Korea, Iran, Syria, Sudan, and Cuba.

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION • Comprise three general types: nuclear, chemical

and biological. – Enormously lethal; no discrimination in whom

they kill. • Serve different purposes than conventional

weapons: – Deter attack by giving state leaders the

means to influence great pain against a would-be conqueror or destroyer.

– Symbolic equalizer for middle powers – For terrorists, their purpose is to kill a great

many people.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS • Fission weapons:

– Two elements can be split or fissioned: uranium-235 and plutonium.

– Obstacle often is finding fissionable material – Plutonium bomb is more difficult to build than a

uranium one. • Fusion weapons:

– Extremely expensive and technically demanding. – No splitting of atoms, but rather fusing two together to

make one larger one, releasing energy. • Heat and radiation. • Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP). • Nuclear winter.

EXAMPLES OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS (1) The United States possesses the most advanced military hardware known to man. Here is a sample of our overwhelming nuclear firepower. All footage of launches and warhead detonations are made courtesy of The United States Department of Energy. This agency is responsible for maintaining our nation’s nuclear stockpile. Students will be asked the following question following this video presentation: “What prevents the United States from utilizing its full military capacity?

EXAMPLES OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS (2) The Soviet Union holds title to the world’s largest nuclear warhead detonation. “TSAR Bomba” was the largest nuclear weapon ever constructed or detonated. This three stage weapon was actually a 100 megaton bomb design, but the uranium fusion stage tamper of the tertiary (and possibly the secondary) stage(s) was replaced by one(s) made of lead. This reduced the yield by 50% by eliminating the fast fissioning of the uranium tamper by the fusion neutrons, and eliminated 97% of the fallout (1.5 megatons of fission, instead of about 51.5 Mt), yet still proved the full yield design. It was the "cleanest" weapon ever tested with 97% of the energy coming from fusion reactions. The drop area was over land at the Mityushikha Bay test site, on the west coast of Novaya Zemlya Island, above test field D-2, near Cape Sukhoy Nos.

EXAMPLES OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS (3) The United States Department Of Defense and the Office of Civil Defense commissioned “About Fallout” to educate citizens about the effects of fallout. This film was produced in 1963, during the Cold War. Students should keep in mind that the film offers a very optimistic view of nuclear warfare.

EXAMPLES OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS (5) The United States Air Force, Special Weapons Project Agency commissioned “The Medical Aspects Of Nuclear Radiation” in 1950. The film urges people to not have a fatalistic view about nuclear radiation. Students should recognize the true message behind this film” Nuclear war may be inevitable. We can survive nuclear war”.

BALLISTIC MISSILES & OTHER DELIVERY SYSTEMS

• Delivery systems for getting nuclear weapons to their targets are the basis of states’ nuclear arsenals and strategies. – Ballistic missiles. – Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). – Short-range ballistic missiles. – Cruise missiles. – Missile Technology Control Regime:

• Industrialized states try to limit the flow of missile-relevant technologies to states in the global South.

CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS • A chemical weapon releases chemicals that disable

and kill people. – Range from tear gas to nerve gas. – Indiscriminate about whom they kill. – Use has been rare. – Chemical Weapons Convention (1992).

• Biological weapons: – Resemble chemical weapons, except they use

microorganisms or biologically derived toxins. – Biological Weapons Convention (1972).

PROLIFERATION (1)

• The spread of weapons of mass destruction into the hands of more actors.

• Two sides to the proliferation argument: – Realists – not worried. – Others put less faith in the rationality of

state leaders and are very concerned. • Selling of technology with proliferation

potential.

PROLIFERATION (2)

• Arms races in regional conflicts and rivalries. • Non-Proliferation Treaty (1968). • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

– UN agency based in Vienna charged with inspecting the nuclear power industry in member states to prevent secret military diversions of nuclear materials.

NUCLEAR STRATEGY & ARMS CONTROL • Nuclear strategy refers to:

– decisions about how many nuclear weapons to deploy.

– what delivery systems to put them on. – what policies to adopt regarding the circumstances in

which they should be used. • Deterrence:

– Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). • Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). • Antiballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty (1972). • Strategic Arms Limitation Treaties (SALT). • Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

MILITARY ECONOMIES (1)

• Given the range of military capabilities available to states (at various costs), how much and what types should state leaders choose to acquire?

• Economics of military spending is not so favorable. – Long run: allocating economic resources for

military purposes deprives the rest of the economy and reduces its growth.

– Tradeoff: increasing their available military leverage and increasing their overall economic health.

MILITARY ECONOMIES (2)

• Economic conversion. • Arms imports by states in the global South:

– Make up more than half of all arms sales. – Of all international arms exports, a third come

from the United States, with Russia and Britain ranked next.

– Worldwide, these three countries and France together account for three-quarters of international arms sales.

– Globally, arms sales have declined in the post-Cold War era.

CONTROL OF MILITARY FORCES (1)

• Coordination of many individuals performing many different military functions in many locations. This refers to controlling the military. – Chain of command – Value of military hierarchy – Discipline – Training – Group solidarity – Logistical support – Role of accurate information

CONTROL OF MILITARY FORCES (2) • Human error:

– Friendly fire. • Military governments:

– Most common in poor countries, where the military may be the only large modern institution in the country.

– Coup d’etat is the seizure of political power by domestic military forces – a change of political power outside the state’s constitutional order. • Outcome difficult to predict. • Difficulty gaining popular legitimacy.

• Civilian-military relations.

CONTROL OF MILITARY FORCES (3) • NATO forces operate under strong civilian

control. • Covert operations. • Role of private companies to provide

services to military. • World order is evolving even as military

technologies do.

STABILIZATION Sudden instability is the greatest threat to humanity for it threatens to cause irreparable harm to the individual. One may never consider harming another person in a state of nature. Elimination of one’s sustenance throws the individual into a state of war, because their survival is now threatened. Nation-states consist of multiple spheres of interest in turn consisting of individual units consisting of people. As survival is the primary goal of man, so it is the ultimate pursuit of nation-states. The primary concern is that of stability. This philosophy has prevented a major war from taking place over the last sixty years. Instability is the primary cause of all conflict both within and between nation-states.

INSTABILITY – A NIGHTMARE SCENARIO

Sudden instability results in the potential destruction of a relationship. Everyone has experienced the negative effects of instability. Relationships between loved ones is just one of many examples. One major cause of rampant instability is the breakdown of communication between spheres. This is a video documentary titled “First Strike”. It presents a nightmare scenario resulting from souring relations between the United States and the Soviet Union.