Political Science 5 – Western Political Thought - Power Point #12

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Political Science 5 – Western Political Thought - Spring 2013 - Power Point Presentation #12 - © 2013 Tabakian, Inc.

Transcript of Political Science 5 – Western Political Thought - Power Point #12

  • Western Political Thought Dr. John Paul Tabakian

    Political Science 5

    Fall 2012 Power Point #12

  • COURSE LECTURE: WEEK 12 (1)

    Todays Lecture Covers The Following:

    The American Persona

    Rationale of domestic policy

    Rationale of foreign policy

    Americas rise to power

    How citizens view their role

    Domestic Policies

    Foreign Policies

    Major Power, Superpower, Hegemonic Power

    How did America rise to power?

  • COURSE LECTURE: WEEK 12 (2)

    Bureaucracies

    Interest Groups

    Obsolescence of War

    Security Dilemma

    Deterrence

    Bandwagoning

    Counterbalancing

    Models of Decision Making

    Decision Making As Steering

    Group Psychology

  • COURSE LECTURE: WEEK 12 (3)

    Crisis Management

    Military Industrial Complex

    Public Opinion

    Legislatures

    Strategic Defense Initiative

    Missile Defense Agency

  • Diplomats

    Virtually all states maintain a diplomatic corps, or foreign service, of diplomats in embassies in foreign

    capitals

    Political appointees

    Career diplomats

    Tension common between state leaders and foreign policy bureaucrats

    Interagency tensions

    Bureaucratic rivalry as an influence on foreign policy challenges the notion of states as unitary actors in the

    international system

    BUREAUCRACIES

  • OBSOLESCENCE OF WAR

    Realism

    Struggle for power remains constant

    Only variable balance of power

    Bipolar

    Best method for maintaining peace

    Multipolar

    Unipolar

    Deterrence Theory = war is obsolete!

  • SECURITY DILEMMA

    Nation-states pursue national-interests

    Stable international system

    Competitive security system

    States increase their security

    Egos gain as alters loss

    Cooperative security system

    States equate as collective good

    National interests

    International interests

  • Deterrence has worked because neither side really knew what the other side was thinking. A problem with deterrence is that the more times bluffs are made it may lead to a time when someone is going to make the call. At this point there are only three alternatives: 1. Resort to nuclear war 2. Retreat 3. Resort to conventional war

    DETERRENCE

  • SECURITY DILEMMA

    Nation-states pursue individual national-interests

    Leads to a stable international system

    Competitive security system States striving to increase their security

    Egos gain as alters loss

    Cooperative security system States equate security of each as to the collective good.

    National interests are seen to bolster international interests

  • BANDWAGONING

    Bandwagoning results in attraction

    Countries ally themselves with another nation

  • COUNTERBALANCING

    Counterbalancing results in fear

    Countries join together to check another nation

  • Foreign policies are the strategies governments use to guide their actions in

    the international arena

    Spell out the objectives state leaders have decided to pursue in a given

    relationship or situation

    Foreign policy process

    How policies are arrived at and implemented

    MAKING FOREIGN POLICY

  • Rational model

    Decision makers set goals, evaluate their relative importance, calculate the

    costs and benefits of each possible

    course of action, and then choose the

    one with the highest benefits and lowest

    costs.

    Role of uncertainty

    Accepting of risk versus averse to risk

    MODELS OF DECISION MAKING (1)

  • Organizational process model

    Foreign policy makers generally skip the labor-intensive process of identifying goals and alternative

    actions, relying instead for most decisions on

    standardized responses or standard operating

    procedures (sop)

    Government bargaining (bureaucratic) model:

    Foreign policy decisions result from the bargaining process among various government agencies with

    somewhat divergent interests in the outcome

    MODELS OF DECISION MAKING (2)

  • DECISION MAKING AS STEERING

  • Study of individual decision making revolves around the question of rationality

    To what extent are national leaders (or citizens) able to make rational decisions in the national

    interest?

    Difficulties of oversimplification

    Individual decision makers have differing values and beliefs and have unique personalities.

    Idiosyncrasies

    INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKERS (1)

  • Beyond individual idiosyncrasies, individual decision making diverges from the rational model

    in at least three systematic ways:

    Decision makers suffer from misperceptions and selective perceptions when they compile

    information on the likely consequences of their

    choices

    The rationality of individual cost-benefit calculations is undermined by emotions that

    decision makers feel while thinking about the

    consequences of their actions (affective bias)

    INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKERS (2)

  • Cognitive biases are systematic distortions of rational calculations based not on emotional

    feelings, but simply on the limitations of the

    human brain in making choices

    Cognitive dissonance

    Justification of effort

    Wishful thinking

    Mirror image

    Projection

    Historical analogies

    INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKERS (3)

  • Two specific modifications of the rational model of decision making have been proposed to accommodate psychological realities

    Bounded rationality: Takes into account the costs of seeking and

    processing information.

    Optimizing Satisfying

    Prospect theory: Decision makes go through two phases: editing

    phase and the evaluation phase.

    Holds that evaluations take place by comparison with a reference point, which is often the status quo but might be some past or expected situation

    INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKERS (4)

  • Group dynamics can be a promoter of state interests but they can also introduce new sources of irrationality into

    the decision-making process

    Groupthink

    Refers to the tendency for groups to reach decisions without accurately assessing their consequences,

    because individual members tend to go along with

    ideas they think the others support

    Groups tend to be overly optimistic about the chances of success and are thus more willing to take risks

    Iran-Contra scandal

    GROUP PSYCHOLOGY

  • Crises are foreign policy situations in which outcomes are very important

    and time frames are compressed

    Time constraints

    Groupthink

    Psychological stress

    CRISIS MANAGEMENT

  • Huge interlocking network of governmental agencies, industrial corporations, and research institutes, working

    together to supply a nations military forces

    Response to the growing importance of technology

    Encompasses a variety of constituencies, each of which has an interest in military spending

    Corporations, military officers, universities, and scientific institutes that receive military research contracts

    Revolving door

    PACS from the military industry

    MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX (1)

  • The phrase, Military Industrial Complex was first used by President Dwight D. Eisenhower

    during his farewell address to the

    nation on January 17, 1961. He

    warns against the increasing

    influence of corporate influence in

    all areas of government.

    MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX (2)

  • Range of views on foreign policy issues held by the citizens of a state

    Has a greater influence on foreign policy in democracies than in authoritarian

    governments

    Legitimacy

    Propaganda

    Journalists as gatekeepers

    PUBLIC OPINION (1)

  • In democracies, public opinion generally has less effect on foreign policy than on

    domestic policy

    Attentive public

    Foreign policy elite

    Rally round the flag syndrome

    Diversionary foreign policy

    PUBLIC OPINION (2)

  • Conduit through which interest groups and public opinion can wield influence

    Presidential systems; separate elections

    Legislatures play a direct role in foreign policy

    Different rules apply to military force

    Rally round the flag

    May challenge the president if they have power of the purse

    LEGISLATURES (1)

  • Parliamentary systems; political parties are dominant

    Often parliamentary executives do not need to submit treaties or policies for formal

    approval by the legislature

    Call elections; new executive

    Legislatures play a key role in designing and implementing foreign policy

    LEGISLATURES (2)

  • AIRBORNE LASER LABORATORY

    The Airborne Laser Lab was a gas-dynamic

    laser mounted in a modified version of a KC-

    135 used for flight testing. Similar to the

    commercial Boeing 707, the slightly smaller

    KC-135 was designed to military specifications

    and operated at hight gross weights. The

    NKC-135A (S/N 55-3123) is one of 14 KC-

    135As permanently converted for special

    testing. It was extensively modified by the Air

    Force weapons Labratory at Kirtland AFB,

    New Mexico, and used in an 11-year