Slide 1

Slide 2 Political Science 308: International Politics Introduction and Overview Slide 3 Things to do before proceeding 1. Complete the syllabus quiz 2. Be sure to have completed the academic integrity exercise 3. Be sure to have completed the academic integrity exercise 4. Be sure to have completed the academic integrity exercise 5. Be sure to have completed the academic integrity exercise Slide 4 Two core topics International conflict: Why rivalries, arms races, militarized conflicts, and full-scale wars occur and why negotiation, mediation, cooperation and peace also occur International political economy: How the international system affects national economies and the global economy recessions, depressions, growth, development, inflation, and economic crises. Slide 5 The World and You Why and How to Study International Politics Slide 6 Why I Study International Politics I study it because I hope that I will discover things that policy-makers can use to avoid my childhood nightmares. I study it because some nightmares come true. As a Cold War child living on/near Air Force bases with Minuteman missiles, a.k.a. 150- 300 nuclear targets, I had nightmares and I dont want my child to suffer from them or experience them as living nightmares. Slide 7 Why You Should Study International Politics The world affects you too! Knowledge can be power. Therefore, understanding international politics makes you a better citizen and helps you understand your life past, present, and future. Slide 8 What can you expect from International Politics? The good news: We do know some non-obvious things about international politics, especially trade, negotiation, and armed conflict We have rigorous theories that can help predict or prevent the next world war The bad news: Most theories basically monocausal multicausal explanations needed Theories disagree about very important things (i.e. whether and how there will be a World War III) Slide 9 I. How International Relations Affect You A. Military Security 1. World War III 2. Conventional War 3. Small Wars 4. Rivalry and Conflict 5. Terrorism Slide 10 B. Economic Security 1. Trade and Jobs 2. Consumption and Prices 3. Taxes and Spending Slide 11 C. Values 1. Religion Christianity, etc. 2. Justice Genocide, etc. 3. Affinity 10% foreign-born; 10% children of foreign-born Slide 12 D. Interactions 1. Travel 2. Disease 3. Communication Slide 13 II. Theories of International Politics A. Theories (defined on pp. 30-31) come in two varieties: 1. Empirical: Explain and/or predict observable facts about the world. Example = Liberal Peace 2. Normative: Evaluate the moral or ethical status of behavior and structure in the world system. Example = Just War Theory 3. This course focuses on empirical theory, but includes a unit on normative theory Slide 14 B. Four Perspectives on International Politics 1. Perspectives (aka paradigms) = very broad theories or groups of theories see Table 2.1 on p. 25 for three of them Slide 15 2. Details of three perspectives summarized in Table 2. RealismLiberalismRadicalism World System AnarchyCommunityHierarchy Key Actors StatesStates, IGOs, NGOs, Warlords Classes or Dominant Groups Goals of Actors National Interest (Security) Problem Solving (Security, Growth, Environment) Profit / Exploitation Formal Agreements Cheap TalkFunctionalMasks Slide 16 a. Realism RealismLiberalismRadicalism World System AnarchyCommunityHierarchy Key Actors StatesStates, IGOs, NGOs, Warlords Classes or Dominant Groups Goals of Actors National Interest (Security) Problem Solving (Security, Growth, Environment) Profit / Exploitation Formal Agreements Cheap TalkFunctionalMasks Slide 17 Examples of Realism RISK: Conquer or be conquered The enemy of my enemy is my friend Chinese and Arabic proverb. Lord Palmerston: His Majestys Government has no permanent friends, only permanent interests. Winston Churchill: If Hitler invaded hell, I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons. Slide 18 b. Liberalism RealismLiberalismRadicalism World System AnarchyCommunityHierarchy Key Actors StatesStates, IGOs, NGOs, Warlords Classes or Dominant Groups Goals of Actors National Interest (Security) Problem Solving (Security, Growth, Environment) Profit / Exploitation Formal Agreements Cheap TalkFunctionalMasks Slide 19 Examples of Liberalism Woodrow Wilsons Fourteen Points: I. Open covenants of peace, openly arrived at.... II. Absolute freedom of navigation upon the seas. III. The removal.of all economic barriers and the establishment of an equality of trade conditions among all the nations. IV. . national armaments will be reduced to the lowest point consistent with domestic safety. XIV. A general association of nations must be formed under .mutual guarantees of political independence and territorial integrity to great and small states alike. Free-Trade Agreements United Nations Slide 20 c. Radicalism actually Marxism / Dependency Theory RealismLiberalismRadicalism World System AnarchyCommunityHierarchy Key Actors StatesStates, IGOs, NGOs, Warlords Classes or Dominant Groups Goals of Actors National Interest (Security) Problem Solving (Security, Growth, Environment) Profit / Exploitation Formal Agreements Cheap TalkFunctionalMasking Slide 21 Examples of Radicalism (Marxism / Dependency Theory) Slide 22 c. Radicalism actually Marxism / Dependency Theory RealismLiberalismRadicalism World System AnarchyCommunityHierarchy Key Actors StatesStates, IGOs, NGOs, Warlords Classes or Dominant Groups Goals of Actors National Interest (Security) Problem Solving (Security, Growth, Environment) Profit / Exploitation Formal Agreements Cheap TalkFunctionalMasking Slide 23 Examples of Radicalism (Marxism / Dependency Theory) The so-called Great Powers have long been exploiting and enslaving a whole number of small and weak nations. And the imperialist war (World War I) is a war for the division and redivision of this kind of booty. Vladimir Lenin Foreign Aid: From poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries. -- Problem is class solidarity among wealthy, not the idea of aiding the poor. Slide 24 Examples of Radicalism (Marxism / Dependency Theory) "True compassion is more than flinging a coin to a beggar; it comes to see that an edifice which produces beggars needs restructuring US allied to landed gentry of Latin America and capitalists of the West investing huge sums of money in Asia, Africa and South America, only to take the profits out with no concern for the social betterment of the countries. Martin Luther King, Jr. Slide 25 3. (Social) Constructivism Constructivism World System Constructed (Rhetoric Determines Reality) Key Actors Structures and Communities Goals of Actors Dominance and Resistance Formal Agreements Indeterminate Texts Other Key Concepts Securitization, Identity, Immanent Critique Slide 26 Examples of Constructivism The power of metaphors A war on drugs actual wars in Colombia and other countries Anarchy is what states make of itIf the United States and the Soviet Union decide they are no longer enemies, the Cold War is over. Alexander Wendt. World system not product of nature, but of structures made by people, which means we can change it. Slide 27 3. (Social) Constructivism Constructivism World System Constructed (Rhetoric Determines Reality) Key Actors Structures and Communities Goals of Actors Dominance and Resistance Formal Agreements Indeterminate Texts Other Key Concepts Securitization, Identity, Immanent Critique Slide 28 Securitization Actors transform issues into security threats allowing otherwise unthinkable solutions Slide 29 Identity Its where interests come from Usually multiple identities in play Slide 30 Immanent Critique Revealing the flaws from within Local actors may be better at it. Slide 31 Example: Fourth Geneva Convention says Women shall be especially protected against any attack on their honour, in particular against rape... Criticized as having a masculine-identity conception of rape (dishonor) rather than a female one (violation of bodily integrity) Criticized for excluding male non-combatants, reinforcing the image that male = warrior worse human rights abuses (see Srebrenica in July 1995) Slide 32 C. Which one is correct? 1. Parts of all of them, but all of none of them a. All of them make some plausible claims and some counter-intuitive claims. b. All of them sometimes reach contradictory conclusions. c. They are perspectives with different interpretations, not rigorous theories in and of themselves. 2. Our approach = Attempt to study such perspectives by clarifying theories and testing hypotheses (empirical approach) Slide 33 D. A useful way to integrate perspectives: The Menu of Choice 1. Simple rationalist model 2. Key Actors = Leaders 3. Goals = Stay in Office, Improve Policy, Personal Gain 4. World System and Society = Constraints on Leaders 5. Menu Analogy a. Some items arent on the menu (no opportunity) b. Some items are on the menu but not desirable (no willingness) c. Item chosen = preferred, available dish (both opportunity and willingness) Slide 34 5. Example: US Intervention in Libyas Civil War (2011) Menu Get Qaddafi to step aside Support a truly democratic opposition Invade Libya and impose regime change Allow Qaddafi to crush/massacre the opposition Support an imperfect opposition without US troops Slide 35 5. Example: US Intervention in Libyas Civil War (2011) Menu Get Qaddafi to step aside Support a truly democratic opposition Invade Libya and impose regime change Allow Qaddafi to crush/massacre the opposition Support an imperfect opposition without US troops Slide 36 5. Example: US Intervention in Libyas Civil War (2011) Menu Get Qaddafi to step aside Support a truly democratic opposition Invade Libya and impose regime change Allow Qaddafi to crush/massacre the opposition Support an imperfect opposition without US troops Slide 37 III. Levels of Analysis A. Ordered by size of the units System 1. The International System: one unit over time Slide 38 III. Levels of Analysis A. Ordered by size of the units System Region 2. Regions: 2-24 groups of states over time Slide 39 III. Levels of Analysis A. Ordered by size of the units 3. Dyads: Pairs of states (19,306 in 2012) over time System Region Dyad Slide 40 III. Levels of Analysis A. Ordered by size of the units 4. States: Now about 197; fewer in previous years System Region Dyad State Slide 41 III. Levels of Analysis A. Ordered by size of the units 5. Decision-makers: at least one per state and usually more. System Region Dyad State Decision-Makers Slide 42 III. Levels of Analysis A. Ordered by size of the units 6.The public: 7 billion and counting System Region Dyad State Decision-Makers Public Slide 43 III. Levels of Analysis B. Textbook scheme: oversimplifies System Region Dyad State Decision-Makers Public Global Society Decision- makers Domestic Society Slide 44 C. Whats So Important? 1. Problem: Testing Hypotheses at the Wrong Level of Analysis a. Fallacy of Equivocation: Using the Same Word to Mean Two Different Things Balance of Power Does this mean all states are equal (system level), that two states are balanced with each other (dyad level), or that a leader is committed to preserving a balance of power (decision-maker level)? Slide 45 b. Example: Do Alliances Cause War? The World at Time 1The World at Time 2 Slide 46 b. Example: Do Alliances Cause War? The World at Time 1The World at Time 2 WORLD- SYSTEM Time 1Time 2 % Allied % at War Slide 47 b. Example: Do Alliances Cause War? The World at Time 1The World at Time 2 WORLD- SYSTEM Time 1Time 2 % Allied 0%60% % at War 0%40% Slide 48 b. Example: Do Alliances Cause War? The World at Time 1The World at Time 2 WORLD- SYSTEM Time 1Time 2 % Allied 0%60% % at War 0%40% STATE- YEARS Not AlliedAllied Peace War Slide 49 b. Example: Do Alliances Cause War? The World at Time 1The World at Time 2 WORLD- SYSTEM Time 1Time 2 % Allied 0%60% % at War 0%40% STATE- YEARS Not AlliedAllied Peace 53 War 20 Slide 50 b. Example: Do Alliances Cause War? The World at Time 1The World at Time 2 Answer: It depends on the level of analysis! A system with more alliances is more war prone A state in an alliance is less likely to fight a war Slide 51 2. Applying Findings at One Level to Another a. Aggregation: Building up from lower levels. Results may be unexpected! b. Example: The Democratic Peace hypothesis i. Democracies Dont Fight Each Other ii. Autocracies are Less Likely to Fight Each Other Than Average iii. Democracies Do Seem to Fight Just as Often as Autocracies c. Question: Is more democracy in the world a good thing if we want to avoid war? Slide 52 Democratic Peace Example #D#DAD DADA # of Wars Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2% Slide 53 Democratic Peace Example #D#DAD DADA # of Wars 01000.1 Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2% Slide 54 Democratic Peace Example #D#DAD DADA # of Wars 01000.1 1604.14 Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2% Slide 55 Democratic Peace Example #D#DAD DADA # of Wars 01000.1 1604.14 2316.15 Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2% Slide 56 Democratic Peace Example #D#DAD DADA # of Wars 01000.1 1604.14 2316.15 3136.13 Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2% Slide 57 Democratic Peace Example #D#DAD DADA # of Wars 01000.1 1604.14 2316.15 3136.13 4064.08 Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2% Slide 58 Democratic Peace Example #D#DAD DADA # of Wars 01000.1 1604.14 2316.15 3136.13 4064.08 501000 Risk for Autocratic dyads is 1% Risk for Democratic dyads is 0% Risk for Mixed Dyads is 2% Slide 59 Democratic Peace Example Solution: Relationship is nonlinear Adding democracies to a world of dictatorships increases war risk until critical point reached. After that point, more democracy means less war.