Political Science 12: IR -- Fourth Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_fourth_lecture_07082015.pdf ·...
Transcript of Political Science 12: IR -- Fourth Lecturepages.ucsd.edu/.../plsc_12_fourth_lecture_07082015.pdf ·...
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Political Science 12: IR -- Fourth Lecture
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Domestic Politics and War4
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Domestic Politics and War
1. War Model Review 2. Domestic Groups and War 3. Institutions and War
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Domestic Politics and War
1. War Model Review 2. Domestic Groups and War 3. Institutions and War
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Domestic Politics and War
Can internal characteristics of states explain why states go to war?
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Domestic Politics and War
Figure 4.1: The Price of Oil, 1957–2012
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War Model Review
It is usually more rational to bargain than to go to war.
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War as Outcome of a Failed Bargain
Figure 3.2: The Costs of War and
the Bargaining Range
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CASTLE A CASTLE B
War as Outcome of a Failed Bargain: A Model of War
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Castle A Castle B
Fertile farmland
A Model
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Castle A Castle B
Fertile farmland
A Model of War
The object of contention (the green line) can be anything that states are in conflict over.
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A B
Current Border
Probable new border if A and
B fight
A Model of War
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A B
Costs of fighting to A
Probable new border if A and
B fight
Costs of fighting to B
A Model of War
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A B
Net value of fighting to A
Net value of fighting to B
A Model of War
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A B
Range of possible border settlements that both A and
B prefer to fighting
Current Border
A Model of War
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A B
Current Border
B's proposal for a new border
A Model of War
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For any A and B, if • war is costly, and • the object of contention is divisible,
then there is always at least one negotiated settlement that A and B will both prefer to war.
A B
A Model of War
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Domestic Politics and War
1. War Model Review 2. Domestic Groups and War 3. Institutions and War
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Domestic Groups and War
• War may serve the interests of some domestic groups
• Groups may have selfish interests contrary to national interests
• Types of groups
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Domestic Groups and War
Collective action - Smaller groups tend to be better organized. - Larger groups suffer from free riding. Groups may shape policy to support their narrow interests
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Leaders and War
Figure 4.2: Rally Effects and Popularity of President George W. Bush, 2001–2004
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Leaders and War
Figure 4.3: Rally Effects and the Bargaining Range
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Leaders and War
• Deals that A prefers to war • Deals that B prefers to war • Red line = bargaining range
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Leaders and War
A B
• Bargaining range when Rally effect added to A’s payoffs
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Leaders and War
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Leaders and War
Figure 4.4: U.S. Battle Deaths and Public Support for War
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Leaders and War
Figure 4.A: War Outcomes and the Fate of Leaders
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Leaders and War
Figure 4.B: Democracy and the Fate of Wartime Leaders
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Groups and War
• War to satisfy the military or interest groups
• Costs fall on society as a whole; benefits may accrue a specific group
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Groups and War
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Hawks and Doves
• Hawks favor war • Doves oppose war
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Hawks and Doves
Bargaining with hawkish interests in State A
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Hawks and Doves
Bargaining with dovish interests in State A
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Hawks and Doves
Figure 4.5: Domestic Interests and International Bargaining
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Domestic Politics and War
1. War Model Review 2. Domestic Groups and War 3. Institutions and War
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Institutions and War
• Are democracies less prone to go to war?
• Features of democracies
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Institutions and War
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Institutions and War
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Institutions and War
Map 4.1: Democracy and Freedom
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Institutions and War
Figure 4.6: The Spread of Democracy, 1800–2010
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Institutions and War
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Political Science 12: International Relations