Political Report March 2011: AEI's Monthly Poll Compilation

8/7/2019 Political Report March 2011: AEI's Monthly Poll Compilation

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Volume 7, Issue 3 March 2011A M O N T H L Y P O L L C O M P I L A T I O N

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org

Update on President ObamaThe uptick in positive views of President Obama in late December and January appears to be receding. President Obamas

support among whites is currently 39 percent, a particularly anemic showing. Higher gas prices may be contributing. In

2006, Gallup looked at the effect rising gas prices had on presidents, noting that in the past, presidents have not fared

well when gas prices were high. In fact, some of the lowest approval ratings Gallup has ever recorded were measured at

times when the nation faced a gas crisis.

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Recent average weekly ratings of Barack Obama

Percent approve

National Rep. Dem. Ind. Whites

December week one 46% 10% 78% 42% 37%

December week two 45 12 80 41 36

December week three 46 14 79 41 38

December week four 47 12 85 45 38

January week one 48 13 82 46 40

January week two 49 15 83 46 40

January week three 50 14 84 49 43

January week four 50 15 84 45 41

February week one 47 14 83 42 39

February week two 48 16 81 45 40

February week three 48 15 83 43 40

February week four 48 11 82 45 39March week one 46 14 79 43 39

March week two 47 14 79 44 39

Source: Gallup weekly averages.

Pain at the Pump: The Public Reacts to Higher Gas Prices

Q: Thinking about some specific aspects of the nations economy . . . Please tell me if you are hearing . . . ?

Financial Real estate Prices for food and The job Gas prices

markets values consumer goods situation (March) (Feb.)

Mostly good news 12% 8% 7% 10% 1% 2%Mostly bad news 33 46 62 50 90 77

A mix of good and

bad news 47 36 26 37 7 18

Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of March 2011.
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Report Shorts: Quick Takes on Issues in the News

Low On CongressAlthough there was some small improvement in Congresss ratings in some polls in late 2010 and early 2011, the institutions

ratings continue to be very low. In 1995 and 2007, when party control of Congress changed hands, the bodys ratings alsoimproved for a short time.

Approve of the job Congress is doing 18%

Disapprove 74

Note: Twenty percent of Republicans and Democrats approved; 15 percent of independents did. In a mid-March ABC/Washington Postpoll,27 percent approved.Source: Gallup, March 2011.

Comparing the SpeakersIn March 1995, Newt Gingrich had slightly higher positive marks than John Boehner has today. But Gingrichs negatives

were also considerably higher. In both years, many people were neutral or didnt have an opinion.

Positive Negative

Newt Gingrich (Mar. 1995) 27% 41%

John Boehner (Feb. 2011) 20% 21%

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of February 2011.

Drill Baby Drill?Gallup shows an uptick in support for increasing off-

shore drilling in U.S. coastal areas since May last year

when the BP oil spill was in the news.

March 2011 May 2010

Favor 60% 50%

Oppose 37 46

Source: Gallup, latest that of March 2011.

Stimulus StasisIn six questions asked since April 2009 by ABC/Washington

Postpollsters, no more than 37 percent have ever said

that the stimulus program has helped the economy.

Heres the latest:

Federal governments economicstimulus program has helped

the national economy 28%

Hurt 21

Hasnt made much difference 49

Source: ABC/Washington Post, March 2011.

Who Has the Political Advantage?Individuals are usually more popular than institutions,

and in the new ABC/Washington Postpoll, President

Obama bests the Republicans in Congress on the economy

and the deficit. The GOP had gained ground in the ABC/PostDecember poll, but slipped back again this month.

People believe that the Republicans in Congress are

taking a stronger leadership role than the President.

Trust to do a better job

Obama Republicans

in Congress

Economy 46% 34%

Deficit 45% 36%

Taking a stronger

leadership role 39% 46%

Source: ABC/Washington Post, March 2011.



Aiding Libya?

The polls below were conducted at the same time but pro-duced very different results. Question wording could

explain the difference. Pew introduced the subject by ask-

ing if the U.S. had a responsibility to do something about

the fighting there. Twenty-seven percent said we did, and

that introduction to the subject could explain why Pews

results are more negative than CNNs.

Favor U.S. and other countries

sending arms and supplies to

the people who are fighting

to remove Gaddafi from power 53%

Oppose 43Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, March 1013, 2011.

Favor U.S. and its allies sending arms

and supplies to anti-government

groups in Libya 23%

Oppose 69

Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, March 10-13, 2011.

Nuclear Power Now?

We expect a flurry of new polls on nuclear power in thecoming weeks. Gallup took a one-day poll on March 15,

and the results of one question from it are shown here. In

another question in the new poll, 44 percent favored the

construction of nuclear power plants in the U.S. while

47 percent were opposed. As with other issues involving

risk, women were less in favor of construction than men

(34 to 55 percent). Democrats (32 percent) were less likely

to favor construction than Republicans (62 percent).

Independents were split.

2001 2010 2011

(Post-Japanese

earthquake)Favor the use of nuclear

energy as one of the ways

to provide electricity

for the U.S. 48% 62% 57%

Oppose 46 33 38

Source: Gallup, latest that March 15, 2011.

Health Care at Year OneOne year ago, on March 23, President Obama signed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Most pollsters have

continued to ask about peoples reaction to it, albeit not as often as they did during the heat of the debate. Comparing

March 2010 polls and polls taken thus far this year shows that opinion of the bill has not improved significantly. Responses

to most pollsters questions seem to move in a narrow range. Heres a sampling from a few of the major pollsters:

ABC/Post CBS/NYT Pew NBC/WSJ

Support/Oppose Approve/Disapprove Favor/Oppose Good/Bad idea

March 2010 48% 49% 37% 48% 40% 47% 36% 48%

Early 2011 45 50 33 51 41 48 39 39

Source: ABC/Washington Post, latest that of January 2011; CBS/New York Times, latest that of February 2011; Pew Research Center, latestthat of January 2011; and NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of January 2011.

The country is split down the middle when it comes to

who will find the right balance between cutting govern-ment spending that is not needed and continuing

government spending that is needed.

Trust Obama to do a better job 43%

Trust Republicans in Congress 42Source: ABC/Washington Post, March 2011.

To Cut or Not to Cut?



The Union LabelThe next few pages of this issue of AEIs Political Reportlook at what we have learned about views of unions nationally

and in Wisconsin. For 75 years, Gallup has asked Americans whether they approve or disapprove of unions. In the Gallup

(and Pew) polls, opinions became sharply more negative in 2009 and 2010 with a slight recovery in early 2011. Recent

negative attitudes have coincided with troubled economic times. Only 24 percent of Americans think labor unions have apositive impact on American companies ability to compete globally.

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of . . . ? (Gallup)

Q: Just in general is your overall opinion of . . . ? (Pew)

Source: Gallup, latest that of August 2010; PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of March 2011.

Approve of

Labor Unions(Gallup)

46%

Favorable Opinion

of Labor Unions

(Pew)

47%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

52%

July19

36

July19

42

July19

48

July19

54

July19

60

July19

66

July19

72

July19

78

July19

84

July19

90

July19

96

July20

02

Q: Overall, do you think. . . ?

Labor unions have aPositive Negative Not much

effect on effect on of an effect

Salary and benefits of

union workers 53% 17% 22%

Working conditions for

all American workers 51 17 25Workplace productivity 34 30 26

Availability of good jobs

in America 32 33 28

Ability of American com-

panies to compete 24 36 30

Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, February 2011.

Q: Would you, personally, like to see . . . ?

1999 2010

Would like to see

labor unions have

more influence than

they have today 30% 29%

Less 32 40

Same 36 27

Source: Gallup, latest that of August 2010.

Opinion of Labor Unions

(continued on the next page)



Q: Now Im going to read you the names of several public figures, groups, organizations and countries, and Id like you

to rate your feelings toward each one as . . . ?

Labor Teacher Federal gov. State and

unions unions Teachers employees local employees

Positive feelings 38% 47% 73% 42% 47%

Neutral 22 19 15 34 27

Negative 36 30 10 22 24

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, February 2011.

Q: As you may know, some labor unions represent people who are employed by private companies, while others repre-

sent people who are employed by state or local governments. Do you have a generally . . . ?

Favorable opinion of . . . Unfavorable opinion of . . .

Unions that represent workers

for private companies 48% 37%

Unions that represent workers

for state/ local governments 48% 40%


Union Households: How They VoteUnion households are reliably Democratic in elections. Nineteen seventy two remains the exception, when union house-

holds split their votes between Richard Nixon and George McGovern.

Source: AEI compilation. Data from 1952 through 1974 are from Gallups final pre-election poll each election year. All other data are from themajor network/Associated Press exit polls.

(continued from the previous page)

Democrat for

President59%

39%

Democrat for House

60%

Republican for House

37%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Republican for

President

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

Union Households



The Verdict on Public EmployeesThe polls suggest that majorities of Americans support making public employees pay more for their benefits and retirement

programs. It is not clear that Americans make a distinction between public and private sector unions when they think

about collective bargaining. Most polls show more support than opposition for public employee collective bargaining.

Q: In general, do you think . . . ?Responses of

Union

National Rep. Dem. Ind. households

Public employees are paid too much 42% 59% 31% 42% 37%

Too little 15 6 24 13 22

About right 35 28 38 37 34

Source: Quinnipiac, February 2011.

Q: Do you think . . . ?

Public employees receive better compensation

[than] comparable private sector employees 43%Worse 21

About the same 27

Source: Selzer & Company/Bloomberg, March 2011.


Public employees who belong to a union

and work for state government, city

government, or a school district should

have the same right to bargain when it comes

to their health care, pension, and other

benefits as employees who belong to a union

and work for private companies 77%

Should not 19


Q: In order to reduce state budget deficits, would you . . . ?

Responses of

National Rep. Dem. Ind. Union

householdsSupport making public employees

pay more for their benefits and

retirement programs 63% 72% 47% 70% 57%

Oppose 31 22 45 26 39

Support limiting collective bargaining

for public employees 45% 59% 33% 45% 29%

Oppose 42 25 56 43 62





Q: Let me read you a number of steps that elected officials are considering to deal with state budget deficits that affect

public employees who work for state government, city government, or a school district. For each one, please tell me if

you find this . . .

Acceptable Unacceptable

Require public employees to

contribute more of their pay

for their retirement benefits 68% 29%

Require public employees to

contribute more of their pay for

health care benefits 63 34

Freeze public employees salaries

for one year 58 40

Eliminate public employees right

to collectively bargain over health

care, pensions, and other benefits

when negotiating a union contract 33 62


Q: Do you think public employees . . . ?

Public employees should have the right

to collectively bargain for wages 64%

Should not 32


Limiting Collective Bargaining: Whats Motivating the Politicians?Around four in ten or more in recent polls believe governors or state legislators efforts to limit collective bargaining are

designed to weaken unions.

Q: With states facing budget crunches, several Republican governors across the country are trying to scale back benefits

for state workers. Which of the following positions . . . ?

Comes closest to your view . . .



The effort to limit collective bargaining

by public employees is more about

weakening unions 41%

More about controlling government costs 47

Note: Sixty-two percent of union households said it was to weakenunions, 30 percent to control costs.Source: Quinnipiac, February 2011.

Q: In general, when governors and state legislators try to

reduce the benefits of public employees, do you think . . . ?

They are doing this mostly to reduce

state budget deficits 49%

Mostly to weaken the power of unions 43


Public employees enjoy generous

benefits that cash-strapped states

can ill afford, and they should be

willing to sacrifice to help states

avoid a budget crisis 46%

Governors are unfairly targeting

public employee unions and

should not seek to balance their

budgets by taking away benefits

promised to state workers 49%



Opinions in WisconsinIn the 2010 election in Wisconsin, 26 percent of voters were members of union households. They voted for the Democratic

candidate for Governor Tom Barrett. Non-union households voted for Scott Walker, the Republican. The Wisconsin

Policy Research Institute polled Wisconsin residents opinions right after the November 2010 election and again in late

February and early March when the controversy about Governor Walkers plans was most intense. Thirty-five percenthad a negative view of him in the post-election poll. Fifty-three percent did so in the new poll, taken during the heat of

the controversy.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Some collegeTotal Whites or less

Have a favorable opinion

of Scott Walker

November 2010 45% 47% 42%

Feb.Mar. 2011 43 46 49

Unfavorable

November 2010 35% 32% 33%

Feb.Mar. 2010 53 50 52

Source: The Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, latest that of FebruaryMarch 2011.

Q: Do you think the state budget in Wisconsinthat is, the balance between government spending and revenuesis a . . . ?State budget in Wisconsin is a big problem 59%

Somewhat of a problem 36

Not a problem 3

Source: The Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, February March 2011.

Election Results from 2010Voted for

Barrett Walker

Actual Vote 46.48% 52.25%

Exit Poll

(Percent ofelectorate)

Whites (90%) 43% 55%

Whites with

no college (55%) 40 58

Union HH

Yes (26%) 63 37

No (74%) 43 56

Source: Wisconsin Secretary of State (actual results) and National Exit Poll Consortium for Wisconsin subgroup results.




Q: Im now going to read you a list of people and organizations that have been in the news recently. Please tell me

if you . . .

Have a favorable opinion of Unfavorable

70% Teachers 25%

67 Public employees 25

59 Teachers unions 36

59 Public employee unions 34

Democrats in the

50 state legislature 42

Republicans in the

46 state legislature 46

43 Scott Walker 53

38 Tea Party members 44

Source: The Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, FebruaryMarch 2011.

Q: Now Im going to mention some specific parts of the bill. For each, please tell me if this is something you . . .

Favor Oppose

Requiring public employees to contribute

to their own pensions 81% 18%

Limiting most public employees ability to

negotiate over non-wage issues in order

to prevent local union affiliates from

obstructing the budgeting process for

local governments 47 50Stripping most public employees of

their right to collectively bargain over

benefits and working conditions as part

of a ploy to eliminate public employee

unions altogether 32 58

Note: The wording in the second and third items was part of a split-ballot experiment.Source: The Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, latest that of FebruaryMarch 2011.

(continued from the previous pageOpinions in Wisconsin)

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research

Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar;

Michael Barone, Resident Fellow.

Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew

Rugg, Editor.

Interns: Greg Brooks, Julia Goldstein, Matt Hoyt.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS



The State of the StatesThere is widespread agreement in the country and in polls taken in individual states that states are facing very serious

budgetary problems. As is the case nationally, it isnt clear what people want to do about it. Raising taxes is decidedly

unpopular.

Q: As you may know, some state governments are facing budget problems that have forced them to raise taxes or

reduce spending. What about in your state: Is your state government currently . . . ? Q: (Asked of those who say state is

facing budget problems) Are these budget problems very serious, fairly serious, or not too serious?

Yes, state currently facing budget problems 81%

Very serious 36

Fairly serious 36

Not too serious 8

State is not facing budget problems 12


Q: What is the best way to deal with the budget in your state? Should state lawmakers . . . ?State lawmakers should mostly focus on . . .

Cutting major programs 19%

Increasing taxes 4

A combination of both 68


Q: Thinking now about state government efforts to balance their budgets, please say whether you would . . . ?

Favor Oppose

Reducing or eliminating certain state

programs 65% 32%

Reducing the number of workers onthe state payroll 62 35

Changing state laws to limit the bargaining

power of state employee unions 49 45

Raising state taxes on business 39 58

Raising state income or sales taxes 33 66

Borrowing more money by issuing bonds 30 66

Source: Gallup, March 2011.

Q: As you may know, many U.S. state governments are facing large budget deficits this year. Please say whether you . . .

the following ways state officials could reduce their budget deficits?

Favor Oppose

Reducing or eliminatingcertain state programs 47% 48%

Reducing pay or benefits the state

provides for government workers 44 53

Increasing state sales, income, or

other taxes 27 71

Source: Gallup/USA Today, February 2011.



Q: How would you rate the job performance of . . . ?

Excellent/good Fair/poor

Your state government when it comes

to balancing your states budget 22% 70%

Your states governor 42 57

Your states legislature 23 73

Source: Zogby International online poll, February 2010.

Q: As you may know, by law most states must balance their budgets, but many states are now unable to do so. In your

opinion, which is the better way to address this problem?

2011 2010 2003

The federal government should give

more money to states to help them

meet their budgets, even if it means

higher federal deficits 27% 26% 35%

States should take care of this themselves,

either by raising state taxes or cuttingstate services 60 58 57

Source: CBS, April 2003; PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of February 2011.

The State of the Nation

Q: How serious a problem do you think . . . ?

Feb. 2011 Feb. 2003Federal budget deficit is a . . .

Very serious problem 79% 44%

Somewhat serious 17 42

Not too serious 2 9Not at all serious 1 2

Note: In an early February 2011 Gallup poll, 11 percent volunteered that the federal budget deficit/federal debt was the most important issuefacing the country.Source: Quinnipiac, latest that of February 2011.

Q: In order to help reduce the budget deficit, do you think . . . ?

President Obama Republicans in Congress

Would cut government spending too much 10% 32%

Too little 51 33

About the right amount 32 29

Source: Quinnipiac, latest that of February 2011.

Q: In order to help reduce the budget deficit, do you think . . . ?

President Obama Republicans in Congress

Would increase taxes too much 44% 33%

Too little 14 25

About the right amount 36 36

Note: Forty-six percent of Democrats thought Republicans in Congress would increase taxes too much.Source: Quinnipiac, latest that of February 2011.



News about National Public RadioSixty-one percent of Americans never listen to NPR while 10 percent tune in regularly. The age profile of NPRs regular

listeners is similar to the age profile of the country as a whole. Its regular audience is more upscale in terms of education

and income than the general public. It is also more Democratic and more liberal than the population as a whole.

Q: Now Id like to know how often you watch or listen to certain TV and radio programs. For each that I read, tell me if

you watch or listen to it . . .

Listen to NPR

Regularly 10%

Sometimes 13

Hardly ever 14

Never 61

Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, June 2010.

Comparing NPRs Regular Listeners to the Nation as a Whole

1829 3049 5064 65+

National sample 23% 32% 27% 17%

NPR audience* 21 35 28 16

$75,000

National sample 28% 31% 26%

NPR audience* 17 29 44

HS or less Some college College grad



Rep. Dem. Ind.

National sample 25% 33% 34%NPR audience* 14 40 41

Conservative Moderate Liberal



Note: * Regular listeners.

Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, June 2010.

Q: Do you . . . ?

Support cutting off federal

government funding to NPR Oppose

40% Natl. 49%

54% Rep. 33%

27 Dem. 62

40 Ind. 50



13/13

Whos Hot, Whos Not

Q: Id like to get your feelings toward some of our

political leaders and other people who have been in

the news. Ill read the name of a person and Id like

you to rate that person using something called a feelingthermometer. You can choose any number between

0 and 100. The higher the number the warmer or more

favorable you feel toward that person, the lower the

number, the colder or less favorable. If we come to a

person who you havent heard enough about to form

an opinion, you dont need to rate the person. Just tell

me and well move on to the next one.

Mean Percent whothermometer did not know

score enough about(Of those who the people

knew enough to rate themto rate)

Top five

Michelle Obama 60.1 4%

President Clinton 59.2 2

Christopher Christie 57.0 55

President Obama 56.5 0

Rudolph Giuliani 52.3 13

Bottom five

Haley Barbour 43.5 65

Newt Gingrich 42.7 17

Sarah Palin 38.2 4Harry Reid 34.8 37

Nancy Pelosi 32.9 15


The Donald

Q: Now Im going to read you the names of several

public figures, groups, organizations and countries,

and Id like you to rate your feelings toward each one

as . . .Positive feelings about

Donald Trump Neutral Negative

July 1990 14% 28% 49%

Oct. 1999 14 25 55

Dec. 1999 16 28 48

May 2004 26 38 29

Feb. 2011 26 49 29


The Sheen on Charlie SheenWere not surprised the pollsters have turned their atten-

tion to Charlie Sheen. The CNN/Opinion Research Cor-

poration poll shown below suggests that he is one of the

least popular figures in America. Hardly anyone thinks

hes winning, to use a formulation that he himself uses.

A new online Public Policy Poll pits Sheen against Sarah

Palin and Barack Obama. Palin leads Sheen by 49-29 per-

cent (although she loses to him among independents) and

Obama beats him by 57 to 24 percent. In another question

in the poll, the gap between those who had a favorable and

unfavorable opinion of Sheen (57 points) was identical tothe gap about John Edwards in an earlier poll.

Q: Please say if you . . .

Have a favorable opinion of Charlie Sheen 17%

Unfavorable 69

Q: As you may know, [Charlie Sheen] frequently has used

the word "winning" when talking about himself. Based

on what you know about his recent behavior, would you

say that . . . ?

Charlie Sheen has been mostly been

winning in the past few weeks 17%

Mostly losing 75Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, March 2011.

Q: Who do you think . . . ?

Actor Charlie Sheen has a firmer grip on reality 32%

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi 14

Neither 37

Source: Fox/Robins/Shaw, May 2011.

Save the DateApril 1

An Early Look at the 112th Congress

What do the early days of the 112th Congress tell us

about the countrys policy direction? How has Congress

changed since the 1994 Republican takeover? Learn theanswers to these questions and many more on April 1,

when AEI will host its first Politics Watch event of the

year, The First 100 Days: An Early Look at the 112th

Congress. A panel of experts, including former members

of Congress Vic Fazio and Vin Weber (invited) and

Wall Street Journalcongressional correspondent Janet

Hook, will offer their insights. For more information

and to register, please visit www.aei.org/events.
http://www.aei.org/eventshttp://www.aei.org/http://www.aei.org/events

Political Report March 2011: AEI's Monthly Poll Compilation

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