Better Research For Better Communication

Political Polling

Qualifications and Capabilities

Presentation

Prepared by:

Ethridge & Associates, L.L.C.

Dr. Steven C. Ethridge, Ph.D.

January 12, 2011

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Chronological Highlights of Ethridge’s Polling Career

31 years of experience 31 years commercial marketing research

U.S. Census Bureau

Message Factors, Inc.

Fred's, Inc.

27 years in political polling and strategic consulting

Began polling in April, 1983 as Interim Director of The Marketing Research Institute, Inc., Jackson, MS, now Marketing Research Insights, Inc. (MRI), Pensacola, FL

Mentored by Republican Pollster, Dr. Verne Kennedy, Ph.D. in Communication, President of MRI

Polled all throughout U.S. Primarily in the Mid-South (MS, LA, TN, AL and TX)

First client was Louisiana Governor Dave Treen (1983)

Chief polling competitor was Lance Tarrance, Tarrance & Associates (saw much of his work)

First polled statewide in TN in 1983 at MRI for a U.S. Senate race against Jim Sasser

Moved back to Memphis August 1983 Met and began being mentored by Dr. John P. Bakke, Ph.D. in Communication

Well-known political consultant

Political news analyst for News Channel 3

Chairman of Department of Communication, University of Memphis

Pollster and strategist of Republican Don Sundquist for U.S. Congress and Governor of TN

Ethridge first polled for Dr. Bakke and Congressman Don Sundquist in 1984

Worked with and learned from Douglas Bailey (Lamar Alexander‟s chief political strategist) in Bill Gibbon‟s race for Mayor of Memphis (1986)

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Chronological Highlights of Ethridge’s Polling Career

Became Executive Associate and Client Manager of The Gallup Organization, Inc. 1987-1988

Ethridge learned “Gallup Poll” methods first hand

Gallup bought out Tarrance & Associates, Inc. while Ethridge was there.

Ethridge got to see and learn from many of Tarrance‟s presentations and polls

Returned to Memphis, in September, 1988; started The Ethridge Company

Recruited to be Sr. Brand Manager, Market Research for Holiday Inns & Holiday Corporation (1989)

Chosen to be on founding management team of The Promus Companies, Inc. (parent company of Hampton Inns, Embassy Suites, Homewood Suites and Harrah‟s Entertainment)

Completed Master of Arts in Communication specializing in political communication under Dr. Bakke at the University of Memphis, 1990.

Ethridge‟s first TV news political analyst opportunity was in 1991 regarding the Memphis Mayor‟s race, predicting Dick Hackett's likely defeat

Used polling and communication strategy to lead Harold Sterling to an upset victory over Michael Hooks for Shelby County Property Assessor (1992).

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Chronological Highlights of Ethridge’s Polling Career

Founded Advanced Marketing Research, January 1993.

Ethridge was the first pollster in America to foresee Democratic U.S. Senator Jim Sasser‟s vulnerability to defeat

Foresaw in March 1993 that Sasser could be defeated 56%-44%

Ethridge was the only pollster in America to track Frist in the lead from December 1993 to September 1994

Pollster Whit Ayers did not detect Frist in the lead until September 1994

Together, Ethridge & Ayers wrote a memo to the Republican Senatorial Committee showing that we both had Frist in the lead.

Frist got the maximum contribution from RSC as a result

Frist defeated Sasser with 56% of the vote, just as Ethridge said could happen nearly two years earlier.

Ethridge was hired as lead pollster for Sundquist for Governor in 1993, to work with:

Dr. Bakke as Direct of Communication

Dick Morris as Communication Consultant

Charlie Black as General Consultant

Later Tom Ingram as PR Consultant

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Chronological Highlights of Ethridge’s Polling Career

Ethridge was the most accurate pollster in the 1994 Statewide Elections in Tennessee

Frist and Thompson‟s pollsters were showing the Governor‟s race closer and more volatile; while we were tracking Sundquist as being consistently ahead.

Dr. Bakke asked Ethridge to call the other firms to find out what the differences in methodology were.

We found our poll was superior in both sampling and screening for likely voters.

Dr. Bakke, Dick Morris and Charlie Black accepted Ethridge‟s polls as being correct and the others as being flawed.

The campaign made decisions based on our polls showing Sundquist clearly ahead, rather than reacting as if we were behind (which could have cost us the race).

Also polled for Ed Bryant for U.S. Congress District 7 and developed his winning strategy:

In his 1994 Republican Primary race

In his 1994 General Election

All of his subsequent races for Congress

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Chronological Highlights of Ethridge’s Polling Career

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Chronological Highlights of Ethridge’s Polling Career

Our news Channel 3 Exit Poll results were well within the margin of error (+/- 6.9 points).

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Chronological Highlights of Ethridge’s Polling Career

Ethridge is widely recognized as one of the most accurate pollsters in the Mid-South, having major credibility with the media

Contract pollster for The Commercial Appeal on dozens of polls since 1995. Local races (e.g., City Mayor; County Mayor)

Statewide races (e.g. Lamar Alexander for Senate)

Presidential races (e.g., George Bush for President)

Numerous public policy issues (e.g., the sale of MLGW; tax increases, etc.)

Social issues (e.g., racism)

News Story: The Commercial Appeal: Newspaper's Poll Forecast Tenn., Ark. Vote Correctly,Date: FRIDAY, November 10, 2000 Section: News, Page: A23

“George W. Bush's margins of victory over Vice President Gore in the three Mid-South states mirrored the margins forecast by a public opinion poll conducted for The Commercial Appeal. The survey, conducted by Ethridge & Associates LLC Oct. 29-Nov. 1, accurately predicted the percentage of the vote Bush and Gore received in Tennessee - 51 percent and 47 percent, respectively. The poll's margin of error for Tennessee was 3.9 percentage points.”

Acknowledged by Tennessee statewide media as being one of the most accurate pollsters in Tennessee elections. Ethridge & Associates, L.L.C.‟s polls have often been cited in the Tennessee Journal as an accurate and authoritative source. For example, regarding the polling in the 2004 Presidential campaign, The Tennessee Journal reported:

“As it turned out, two independent polls conducted in Tennessee the week before the election were on the money. [As one of these:] The Commercial Appeal commissioned a survey by Ethridge & Associates that was taken Oc. 29-Nov. 1. It showed Bush leading 47% to 44%.”

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Ethridge’s Polls and Campaigning Expertise Have Been Cited in Both National and Statewide News

Over the past 18 years, Ethridge‟s polls, expert analysis and reputation as a “veteran pollster” have been published in numerous state and national news publications.

The

Tennessee

Journal

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Ethridge’s Polls Have Been Favorably Cited in Books on National and Statewide Campaigns

Ethridge & Associates, L.L.C. has been cited favorably as a polling authority in several books by

nationally recognized authors. These include most recently (that we are aware of) Larry Sabato,

the well known author, national political analyst and founder of the University of Virginia‟s Center

for Politics (www.centerforpolitics.org) has cited our polls.

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Ethridge has also spoken by invitation before several professional trade associations on the

subjects of marketing, communication and research. To list a few . . .

Public Relations Society of America, Memphis Chapter Luncheon — Polls as Research,

Rhetoric and Ratings: How Candidates, PR Firms and Media Use and Should Use Polls, Presented

November 14, 2007 in Memphis, TN.

Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation — Motivating Donors to Give More: How to “Get Inside

Donors‟ Heads” to See What Makes Them “Tick,” Presented February 24, 2007, Washington, D.C.

Travel and Tourism Research Association International Conference — The Next Generation of

“Conversion” Studies: How to Improve Your Tourism Advertising Effectiveness, Return on

Investment and Campaign Funding, Presented on June 13, 2005 in New Orleans, LA.

Travel and Tourism Research Association Central State Conference — The Next Generation

of “Conversion” Studies: How to Improve Your Tourism Advertising Effectiveness, Return on

Investment and Campaign Funding, Presented on September, 2005 in Little Rock, AR.

Travel and Tourism Research Association Central State Conference — A Marketing

Opportunity Analysis for the Tennessee Department of Tourist Development: A Case Study,

Presented on September 29, 2000 in Hattiesburg, MS.

Political Candidate Training Seminar --- Held by Mike Carpenter, Carpenter Communications,

Memphis, TN, 1995

Public Relations Society of America, Memphis Chapter Luncheon — Elections in Tennessee,

Presented November 9, 1994.

Ethridge Has Been Invited to Speak on Politics and Marketing on Numerous Occasions

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Published Articles

Tennessee Speech Communication Association — Shifting Perceptions of a Southern Sheriff:

Message Making and Image Building in the Campaign of Jack Owens, by John P. Bakke and Steven C.

Ethridge, 1987.

Awards

Travel and Tourism Research Association’s (TTRA) “Research in Action” Award — in

conjunction with our advertising agency client, Combs and Company, for strategic research

applied toward developing an effective marketing campaign.

Publications and Awards

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Sampling of Past Political Clients

President Lamar Alexander for President (2000)

Governor Bill Gibbons for Governor (2009, 2010) TN Governor Don Sundquist (1994, 1998)

U.S. Congress U.S Congresswoman Sue Myrick (R), NC 9th U.S. Congressional District (1996-present) U.S. Congressman Ed Bryant (R), TN (1994 - 2000) U.S. Congressman Don Sundquist for Congress, TN 7th Congressional Distinct (1984-1992)

Senate Harold Sterling for U.S. Senate, TN (1993)

State Legislature The Tennessee Republican Party (1996, multiple State Senate and House races) The Tennessee Republican Caucus (1998)

House District 34: Donna Rowland (1998)

House District 45: Debra Maggart (1998)

House District 79: Curtis Halford (1998)

House District 64: Tom DuBois (1996, 1998)

TN House Representative Eric Swafford , District 25 (2010)

Paul Stanley, TN State Representative (2000) Tennessee Republican House Caucus, numerous winning candidates (2008-2010)

Local Tom Leatherwood, Shelby County Registrar (2000-2010) Mike Carpenter, Shelby County Commissioner (2005) Mayor Jim Rout, Shelby County, TN, 1993)

Sheriff AC Gilless, Shelby County, TN (1989, 1993)

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Sampling of 2009-2010 Political Clients

U.S. Congress U.S Congresswoman Sue Myrick (R), NC 9th U.S. Congressional District (1996-present)

Governor Bill Gibbons for Governor (2009, 2010)

State Legislature TN House Representative Eric Swafford , District 25 (2010)

Representative Wil Neumann, North Carolina‟s House District 108

Tennessee House Republican Caucus (2008-2010)

Local Mark Luttrell, Shelby County Sheriff (2009)

Mark Luttrell for Shelby County Mayor (2010)

.

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Sampling of Conservative Non-Profit Clients(Coast to Coast)

The Reagan Ranch Center

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Sampling of Commercial Clients(Coast to Coast)

CJRW

Holston Valley Medical Center

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Common Types of Political Polls That We Do

Common types of political polls that we do . . . :

Strategic Planning and Benchmarking Polls — which include name recognition,

favorability, job performance, re-electability, trial heat ballot, issue importance, candidate

attribute motivating power, candidate images, message testing (candidate bios, issue position

attacks and rebuttals), identification of “swing voters”, media effectiveness, and target

demographic voter segments

Baseline Polls — shorter polls to help aspiring candidates “test the waters” about their

viability and their opponent‟s vulnerability, which typically include name recognition,

favorability, trail heat ballot, issue importance and limited candidate image and message

testing.

Tracking Polls — periodic tracking polls of key information to measure campaign

performance and “fine-tune” the campaign as it progresses toward victory

Crisis Management / Brush Fire Polls — typically shorter polls to assess the impact of

some critical event that could impact a candidates success at the polls (analogous to crisis

management polls for corporations) or on a corporations public image and financial success

Qualitative Exploratory Research — Focus Groups and In-Depth Interviews to explore

public opinion dynamics.

Audience Response Analysis — Testing TV ads and/or speeches using hand held

Interactive Audience Response/Dialing Systems/People Meters

Exit Polls — At voting locations, either during early voting for campaign tracking or on

election day for media.

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15 Key Benefits of Choosing Ethridge & Associates, L.L.C.

1. Not Just a Polling Firm — We specialize in Research-Driven Strategic Communication Development.

a. Unlike most polling firms, we are not just data collectors — we are veteran communication strategists and

who use research as a basis for developing winning campaigns.

b. This is not pandering (“leading through polling”) but rather it is helping clients discover how to best

communicate their convictions and agenda to the public to win.

c. Our philosophy is that of the famous ancient military strategist, Sun Tzu, who said, “Victorious warriors

win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.” In other

words, we use polling to figure out how to win and then provide strategic recommendations and on-going

consulting to lead campaigns to victory. (Incidentally, Ethridge is a Black Belt in Traditional Japanese

Shotokan Karate through Shotokan Karate of America, a mental skill that he applies to winning campaigns).

2. Return on Investment — Some clients have been outspent by their opponents 2 or 3 to 1 and still won

because of our expertise in developing winning campaign messages, including:

a. Don Sundquist for Governor (1994)

b. Harold Sterling for Shelby County Property Assessor (1993)

3. Unlimited Polling Capacity — Telephone interviewing subcontractor relationships with dozens of highly-

experienced, quality telephone interviewing agencies in the U.S. allowing us to field thousands of

interviewers.

4. Speed of Turnaround — We can provide extremely fast turnaround on polling projects (average 3 to 10

days).

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15 Key Benefits of Choosing Ethridge & Associates, L.L.C.

5. Advanced Interactive Voice Response (IVR) — Automated polling capability:

a. 20 In-House phone line automated polling system

b. Unlike other automated polling systems, our system has all of the same capabilities of live

interviewing Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing System (CATI)

i. Question rotation

ii. List rotation

iii. Piping (inserting previous responses)

iv. Voice capture

v. Sample quota management

c. Subcontractor relationships to run over 1,000 automated polling phone lines.

6. Proprietary Services — Pioneers in motivational research:

a. Right Brain Research® — that uncovers the real reasons why people do what they do (through

our Strategic Alliance with the pioneer in consumer psychological research, Dr. Charles Kenny,

Ph.D., Founder and President of The Right Brain People)

b. Motivational Linguistics Analysis® — proprietary service that uncovers the exact words, phrases

and symbols that you need to use when writing advertising copy, speeches and press releases to

maximally motivate behavior

7. Proven Major Fundraising Expertise — We have helped conservative nonprofits raise tens of millions

of dollars using our motivational research and strategic communication development techniques.

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Regarding Our Proprietary Motivational Linguistics Analysis . . . a Couple of Testimonies . . .

“Steve Ethridge’s firm understands how to get inside the hearts and minds of the donor audience to discover what to

say to motivate them. Due to his innovative linguistics analysis, we were able to implement winning campaign

messages that significantly strengthened our case of support for national clients. In fact, in the case of Mount

Vernon he helped us to see [that] the visual imagery used for marketing President George Washington needed to

change and the language had to better capture the fondness American's felt toward our first President. As a result,

we broke 150-year fundraising records and saw contributions over $1.0 million through the mail. To locate a vendor like Ethridge & Associates has been a great find.” Stephen Clouse, President, Stephen Clouse &

Associates, Washington, D.C.

“Successful marketing strategies start with great research. That's why Steve Ethridge is one of my favorite secret

weapons. Steve often makes research the most exciting phase of a campaign. He thinks with both sides of his

brain, a potent blend of logic and emotion. He is the master of revealing what's in the hearts and minds of a

target market — not only their top-of-mind concerns, but the exact words and phrases that will stir them to

action. The insights, understanding and breakthroughs he generates have made a huge difference in many

successful campaigns. I've worked with Steve for over ten years, and he has never disappointed. . . . In

addition, he's great with our clients. His presentation skills, ability to explain results in layman's terms and to answer

questions make him invaluable in getting clients to buy into good marketing solutions. Steve is a great credibility

booster for an agency —- the kind of top-notch strategic partners who can make you look smarter than you really

are.” March 3, 2009. Top qualities: Great Results, Personable, Expert. Gary Meredith, Sr. VP of Marketing and

Development, American Target Advertising, Inc., Washington, D.C.

“Dear Steve: I am writing to let you know what a tremendous contribution your research and consulting made

to the success of the Ronald Reagan Historical Trust fundraising campaign. This campaign may be the

most successful fundraising campaign this decade. So far, we have raised $7 million dollars and the

money is still pouring in. Your research helped us tap the „responsive chord” among conservative donors that

motivated donors to reach deep into their pocketbooks and write very sizeable contribution checks . . . Steve, on

behalf of Ronald and Nancy Reagan, the Ronald Reagan Historical Trust and the owners of the ranch, the Young

America‟s Foundation, I want to express a heartfelt thank you for a job well don‟t. We will heartily recommend

Ethridge & Associates to any organization that wishes to use public opinion research to help it craft a winning

message. Sincerely, Ron Robinson, President, Young America’s Foundation, Santa Barbara, California.

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15 Key Benefits (Continued) . . .

8. Easy Regional Availability to Those in the Mid-South — Which means . . .

a. Convenience — From Memphis, Ethridge can be anywhere in the Mid-South very quickly

and inexpensively

b. Regional Knowledge — About Mid-South voters and issues

9. Regional Polling Expertise — Although we have polled nationally and in all states in the

continental U.S., Ethridge is an unmatched expert in knowing how to poll in the Mid-South, and

especially in Tennessee.

a. Ethridge has been polling all across the Mid-South since 1983

b. We know how to poll Tennessee better than anyone, as evidenced by . . .

i. Being the first and only polling firm to foresee Sassers‟s defeat two years before it

happened

ii. Being the most accurate in consistently showing Sundquist well ahead of Bredesen

in 1994 when all the other polling firms were showing him either behind, tied or too

close to call

iii. Consistently being the most accurate pollster among published polls

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15 Key Benefits (Continued) . . .

No “Inside the Beltway” Baggage

(Which offers you at least five benefits)

10. Confidentiality — Our clients in D.C. tell us that one of many reasons that they hire is that D.C. is so

incestuous that as soon as a poll is done by a company in the D.C. Metro Area, it is leaked everywhere

they don‟t want it to be.

11. No D.C. “Group Think” — We offer close-to-the ground, objective thought about each Tennessee

campaign. We do not overlay campaign ideas from D.C. or from around the country onto your local

situation.

12. No “Cookie Cutter” Campaigns — We have seen good candidates lose because D.C. pollsters and

media consultants tried to run a “cookie cutter” campaign that worked somewhere else but failed here

(or vice-versa, they wouldn‟t do what was needed in TN because it didn‟t work elsewhere).

13. Close Attention to Your Campaigns — Because we poll in fewer races than most D.C. firms, we can

give each of your races the personalized attention that it deserves.

14. Veteran Expertise --- You will be dealing directly and exclusively with Steven C. Ethridge, a veteran

pollster with over 27 years of experience in polling and strategy, not with some junior level account

manager, as is often the case when dealing with larger firms.

15. Price/Value — Because we don‟t have Washington, D.C. overhead, we can be extremely price

competitive.

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Testimonials

“Steve is simply the best pollster in the Mid-South. He is reliable and accurate.” John Ryder, Past National

Committeeman at the Tennessee Republican Party

“Steven has done political work for us for years and we wouldn't ever consider using anyone else. He has always done

work of the highest quality and has been easy to work with.” Bill Constangy, Deputy Campaign Manager, Finance

Director at Sue Myrick for Congress (Charlotte, NC Area)

“Steve is an outstanding pollster and advisor. We've worked together on several political campaigns and Steve's polling

ability has been among the most reliable — in an art/science that can be tricky, with constantly changing dynamics

surrounding everything. I've known Steve for over a decade and believe he is a capable, ethical person.” Jim

Edwards, Ph.D., Senior Advisor at Majority Project 2010; Government Relations and Public Policy Expert at

MITA Group

“Steve is a consummate professional with an unwavering commitment to detail and accuracy. One of the best

researchers and strategic communications consultants in the business.” Marius Penzner, President, Penczner Media

(Washington, D.C. Metro Area)

“Of all the researchers I‟ve worked with, inside and outside the academic world, Steve Ethridge is the best research

methodologist I know. He not only knows how to conduct the research, but he also has the experience to know how to

apply it effectively.” Dr. John Bakke, Director of Communication — Sundquist for Governor Campaign

Chairman; Chairman (Retired), Department of Communication, The University of Memphis

“Dear Steve, Your polls were not only accurate and timely, but your strategic recommendations were helpful as well.

And your ability to handle benchmark and tracking polling in 15 State House and Senate Districts at the same time was

a valuable strategic weapon for our party in 1996.” Jim Burnett, Chairman, Tennessee Republican Party (1996).

“Dear Steve . . . Your polling results were extremely valuable to our campaign and helped us design direct mail that was

effective and targeted. To be perfectly honest, I was hesitant to poll based on the cost, but what an investment it was!

The dollars spent paid off by allowing us to defeat an 18-year incumbent in a primary, not just by a slim margin but 73%

to 27%. Without a doubt your polling was a big part of that margin.” Paul R. Stanley, TN State Representative.