Political Intelligence - September Midterm Report
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Transcript of Political Intelligence - September Midterm Report
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Key Takeaways
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P O L I T I C A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
TRUMP
SENATE
HOUSE
Trump’s approval remains relatively unchanged• Trump’s approval rating has dropped one point to 43% - potentially driven by a shift
with independent voters. • Despite slight improvements to his favorability in Nevada, North Dakota, and Ohio,
more voters continue to disapprove of his performance.
Democrats maintain a lead on the generic ballot• Democrats have a +5 lead on the generic ballot (41% Democrat vs. 36% Republican)• The generic ballot in toss-up districts remains unchanged with, the generic
Democratic candidate leading 41% to 35%. • In these toss-up districts, a majority of voters disapprove of the President’s
performance with 42% strongly disapproving.
Most incumbents appear well-positioned for re-election• Senators largely continue to receive positive approval rating among their constituents,
though Nelson joins McCaskill and Heller in receiving negative marks. The margin of approval has tightened for Donnelly and Manchin.
• Resentment towards incumbents remain high as voters across key Senate races, and even safe districts say that it’s time to give someone else a chance.
Trump ApprovalWhat voters think about POTUS1
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3
4
Generic Congressional BallotWhat voters think about control of the House and Senate
Approval and Reelection by IncumbentWhat voters think about key officials
Top Policy IssuesWhat voters prioritize at the polls
2018 MidtermsPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE
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Trump Approval by Party
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P O L I T I C A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
Trump Approval
2018 MIDTERMS
All Voters
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
43%Approve
52%Disapprove
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
StronglyDisapprove
Don’t Know / No Opinion
11%Approve
86%Disapprove
37%Approve
54%Disapprove
84%Approve
14%Disapprove
-1Change since previous month 0
14%
49%
8%
23%
35%
9%
12%
16%
8%
74%
38%
6%
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Trump Net Approval in Competitive Senate States
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Trump Approval
2018 MIDTERMS
1 Change since previous month
State All ()1 Dem. Ind. Rep.
-1 (0) -73 -13 69
0 (-2) -73 -5 72
4 (-1) -70 -9 73
5 (+2) -74 -4 75
1 (0) -88 +6 90
-7 (+2) -75 -17 70
State All ()1 Dem. Ind. Rep.
-5 (+3) -73 -19 67
-5 (+1) -72 -13 70
-8 (-2) -69 -17 66
6 (-1) -74 -11 76
29 (+2) -40 26 82
-16 (-1) -77 -20 67
Clinton won state in 2016 presidential election
Trump won state in 2016 presidential election
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Trump Approval by Congressional District Competitiveness1
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P O L I T I C A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
Trump Approval
2018 MIDTERMS
Safe Democratic
Districts
Districts thatLean
DemocraticToss-UpDistricts
Districts thatLean
Republican
Safe Republican
Districts
14% 17% 20% 23% 29%16%
20% 21%23%
26%
5%4%
4%4%
5%
13%13%
13%12%
11%
53%45% 42% 37%
30%
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
StronglyDisapprove
Don’t Know / No Opinion
1 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-10 D PVI, Lean R = 6-10 R PVI, Safe R = + 10 R PVI, Safe D = + 10 D PVI
2018 MidtermsPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE
Trump ApprovalWhat voters think about POTUS1
2
3
4
Generic Congressional BallotWhat voters think about control of the House and Senate
Approval and Reelection by IncumbentWhat voters think about key officials
Top Policy IssuesWhat voters prioritize at the polls
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Generic Congressional Ballot Among All Americans
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P O L I T I C A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
Generic Congressional Ballot
2018 MIDTERMS
All Voters
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
41%Democratic Candidate
36%Republican Candidate
90%
27%
8%
52%
10%
21%
87%
DemocraticCandidate
Republican Candidate
Don’t Know / No Opinion
0Change since previous month 0
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Generic Congressional Ballot in Competitive Senate States
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P O L I T I C A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
Generic Congressional Ballot
2018 MIDTERMS
1 Change since previous month
State Dem.Candidate
Rep.Candidate
37% (+2)1 40% (0)1
38% (+1) 40% (+1)
36% (+1) 41% (0)
36% (0) 41% (+1)
39% (0) 37% (+2)
39% (0) 39% (+1)
State Dem.Candidate
Rep.Candidate
37% (-1) 37% (-1)
39% (0) 36% (0)
42% (+1) 36% (0)
33% (0) 45% (+1)
30% (-1) 43% (+1)
44% (0) 33% (0)
Democrat holds Senate seat opening in 2018
Republican holds Senate seat opening in 2018
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Generic Congressional Ballot by Congressional District Competitiveness1
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P O L I T I C A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
Generic Congressional Ballot
2018 MIDTERMS
56%46% 41% 37% 31%
21%24%
24%23%
23%
23% 30% 35% 40% 46%
Democratic Candidate
Republican Candidate
Don’t Know / No Opinion
Safe Democratic
Districts
Districts thatLean
DemocraticToss-UpDistricts
Districts thatLean
Republican
Safe Republican
Districts
1 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-10 D PVI, Lean R = 6-10 R PVI, Safe R = + 10 R PVI, Safe D = + 10 D PVI
2018 MidtermsPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE
Trump ApprovalWhat voters think about POTUS1
2
3
4
Generic Congressional BallotWhat voters think about control of the House and Senate
Approval and Reelection by IncumbentWhat voters think about key officials
Top Policy IssuesWhat voters prioritize at the polls
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Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, in Competitive Senate States
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P O L I T I C A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
Approval and Reelection by Incumbent
2018 MIDTERMS
Senator Approve DisapproveDeserves
ReelectionTime for
New Person
BillNelson(D-FL)
39% (-1)1 41% (+2)1 26% (0) 55% (+1)
JoeDonnelly
(D-IN)39% (-1) 38% (+2) 30% (0) 45% (+1)
Claire McCaskill
(D-MO)37% (-1) 48% (+2) 30% (-1) 54% (+1)
JonTester(D-MT)
52% (+1) 37% (+2) 46% (+2) 41% (+1)
HeidiHeitkamp
(D-ND)47% (-1) 43% (+1) 40% (+1) 45% (-1)
Do you think [Senator] deserves reelection?
Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Senator] is doing?
1 Change since previous month
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Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, in Competitive Senate States
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Approval and Reelection by Incumbent
2018 MIDTERMS
Senator Approve DisapproveDeserves
ReelectionTime for
New Person
DeanHeller
(R-NV)37% (-1)1 44% (+2)1 29% (+2) 51% (-1)
Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
45% (0) 29% (0) 33% (+1) 40% (-1)
BobCasey (D-PA)
43% (0) 31% (0) 32% (-1) 42% (-1)
Ted Cruz
(R-TX)49% (+1) 35% (0) 39% (+1) 42% (-1)
Tammy Baldwin
(D-WI)47% (0) 36% (0) 41% (0) 42% (0)
JoeManchin
(D-WV)44% (-1) 43% (+2) 35% (-1) 49% (+1)
Do you think [Senator] deserves reelection?
Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Senator] is doing?
1 Change since previous month
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Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, by Congressional District Competitiveness1
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Approval and Reelection by Incumbent
2018 MIDTERMS
43% 42%39% 38%
42%
30% 31%34% 34% 31% Approve
Disapprove
Do you approve or disapprove
of the job [Representative]
is doing?
Do you think [Representative]
deserves reelection?
32% 31%27% 27% 30%
40% 41%45% 45% 42%
Deserves re-election
Time for a new person
Safe Democratic
Districts
Districts thatLean
DemocraticToss-UpDistricts
Districts thatLean
Republican
Safe Republican
Districts
1 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-10 D PVI, Lean R = 6-10 R PVI, Safe R = + 10 R PVI, Safe D = + 10 D PVI
2018 MidtermsPOLITICAL INTELLIGENCE
Trump ApprovalWhat voters think about POTUS1
2
3
4
Generic Congressional BallotWhat voters think about control of the House and Senate
Approval and Reelection by IncumbentWhat voters think about key officials
Top Policy IssuesWhat voters prioritize at the polls
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Top Policy Issues Among All Voters
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Top Policy Issues
2018 MIDTERMS
All Americans
26%
21%
16%
16%
7%
5%
5%
4%
EconomicIssues
Security Issues
Senior's Issues
Health CareIssues
EducationIssues
Other
Women's Issues
Energy Issues
Democrats
23%
21%
20%
11%
8%
8%
5%
5%
EconomicIssues
Health CareIssues
Senior's Issues
Security Issues
EducationIssues
Women's Issues
Other
Energy Issues
Independents
28%
17%
16%
14%
8%
7%
5%
4%
EconomicIssues
Security Issues
Health CareIssues
Senior's Issues
EducationIssues
Other
Energy Issues
Women's Issues
Republicans
35%
28%
14%
12%
5%
3%
2%
2%
Security Issues
EconomicIssues
Senior's Issues
Health CareIssues
EducationIssues
Other
Women's Issues
Energy Issues
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Top Policy Issues in Competitive Senate States
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P O L I T I C A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
Top Policy Issues
2018 MIDTERMS
Arizona
24%23%
17%15%
8%5%
4%4%
Security
Economic
Senior
Health Care
Education
Other
Energy
Women
Florida
25%23%
18%15%6%
5%4%4%
Economic
Security
Senior
Health Care
Education
Other
Women
Energy
Indiana
25%22%
17%17%
6%5%
4%3%
Economic
Security
Senior
Health Care
Education
Other
Women
Energy
Missouri
28%19%
19%15%6%5%
4%4%
Economic
Health Care
Security
Senior
Education
Other
Women
Energy
Montana
29%18%
16%15%7%
6%5%
4%
Economic
Senior
Security
Health Care
Other
Energy
Education
Women
Nevada
24%21%
17%16%
9%6%
4%5%
Economic
Security
Senior
Health Care
Education
Other
Women
Energy
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Top Policy Issues in Competitive Senate States
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P O L I T I C A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
Top Policy Issues
2018 MIDTERMS
North Dakota
25%22%
20%15%5%5%5%
4%
Economic
Health Care
Security
Senior
Education
Other
Women
Energy
Ohio
26%20%
19%17%
6%5%4%
3%
Economic
Security
Senior
Health Care
Education
Other
Women
Energy
Pennsylvania
28%20%
17%16%6%
5%5%
4%
Economic
Security
Senior
Health Care
Education
Other
Women
Energy
West Virginia
25%23%
20%16%
5%4%4%3%
Economic
Security
Senior
Health Care
Education
Other
Women
Energy
Wisconsin
24%19%
18%18%
7%5%5%4%
Economic
Health Care
Security
Senior
Education
Other
Women
Energy
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Top Policy Issues by Congressional District Competitiveness1
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P O L I T I C A L I N T E L L I G E N C E
Top Policy Issues
2018 MIDTERMS
27% 26% 26% 26% 26%
18% 19% 20% 21% 23%
17% 16% 16% 16% 16%
15% 17% 17% 17% 16%6% 5% 5% 4% 4%8% 7% 6% 7% 7%4% 4% 4% 4% 3%6% 6% 5% 5% 5%
Economic Issues
Security Issues
Health Care Issues
Senior’s Issues
Women’s Issues
Education Issues
Energy Issues
Other
Safe Democratic
Districts
Districts thatLean
DemocraticToss-UpDistricts
Districts thatLean
Republican
Safe Republican
Districts
1 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-10 D PVI, Lean R = 6-10 R PVI, Safe R = + 10 R PVI, Safe D = + 10 D PVI
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Methodology
The results are compiled from surveys with more than 361,630 registered voters across the U.S. from July 1, 2018 to September 25, 2018. The data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region. Respondents in each state answered questions specific to their Senators.
