POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE - Morning Consult...analysis on the race for the White House....

P O L I T I C A L I N T E L L I G E N C E : 2 0 2 0 U . S . E L E C T I O N

WEEK OF 01 /06/20 – 01 / 12 /20

POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE

The 2020 U.S. Election


P O L I T I C A L I N T E L L I G E N C E : T H E 2 0 2 0 U . S . E L E C T I O N

To kick off this election year, Morning Consult is debuting a more comprehensive Political Intelligence than ever before, offering deeper insights into the 2020 race for the White House.

Political Intelligence: The 2020 U.S. Election now features more extensive data sets, including who's leading the Democratic primary among key demographics and how candidates hypothetically perform against President Trump.

C L I C K H E R E T O S I G N U P

A note on our new Political Intelligence…

Morning Consult delivers the most comprehensive data intelligence on the 2020 presidential election, interviewing more than 5,000 registered voters every day across the United States to offer data in unmatched scale and speed.

Make sure to sign up below to receive this report each week and follow @MorningConsult for the latest data and analysis on the race for the White House.

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult

https://morningconsult.com/form/political-intel-briefing/?utm_source=deck&utm_medium=sign-up-slide&utm_campaign=political_intelligence_report_sign_up


THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

NationalTrend Over TimeIn Key Primary States

789

By GenerationBy Race/Ethnicity 11

National

Among DemocratsAmong Independents

171819

Among Republicans 20

T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S

THE GENERAL ELECTION

Second Choice 13Candidate Favorability 14

Key Takeaways & Methodology 5

12By Ideology

10


KEY TAKEAWAYS(Week of 1/6/20 – 1/12/20)

Why Sanders Is Electable, TooThe latest hypothetical general-election matchup finds Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leading President Donald Trump by 4 percentage points, 46% to 42% – doubling his lead from last week's survey. He also performs better against Trump than former Vice President Joe Biden among a number of key voting blocs, including independents and 18- to 29-year-olds. (Read more)

Booker’s Second Choice Support Most Likely to Go to BidenTwenty-four percent of Sen. Cory Booker’s (D-N.J.) voters say former Biden is their second-choice candidate, followed by Sanders at 19% and Warren at 17%. Before dropping out of the race, Booker held 2% of the vote.

Billionaire Bump: Bloomberg Continues to Climb, Steyer Up in Early StatesFormer New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg claims 8% of the vote share nationally, with 4% for both Gen Z and millennial voters backing him. Bloomberg is among the top candidates for both Gen X and Boomers, claiming 8% of the vote share and 11%, respectively. Twenty days before the Iowa caucuses, Tom Steyer reaches 15% in early states. He claims 15% of the vote share, 4 points behind Sanders (19%) and 12 points behind Biden (27%).

Methodology: This week’s report features 41,496 surveys with registered voters, including 17,096 surveys with Democratic primary voters, conducted

from January 6, 2020 through January 12, 2020. The interviews were conducted online, and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of

registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region.

5

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/14/why-bernie-sanders-is-electable-too/



THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARYW H O ’ S L E A D I N G A M O N G D E M O C R A T I C P R I M A R Y V O T E R S


THE DEMOCRATIC PR IMARYNational

29%

23%

14%

8%

8%

5%

4%

3%

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Pete Buttigieg

Michael Bloomberg

Andrew Yang

Tom Steyer

Amy Klobuchar

C H A N G E F R O M L A S T W E E K

The following candidates received 2% or less of the vote: Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard, John Delaney, Michael Bennet, and Deval Patrick. “Someone else” received 1%.

-2%

0%

0%

0%

+1%

+1%

0%

0%

7


THE DEMOCRATIC PR IMARYTrend Over Time

29%32%

29%

18%

22%23%

17%

21%

15%14%

5%

10%8%

2%

5% 8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

9/1/2019

9/8/2019

9/15/2019

9/22/2019

9/29/2019

10/6/2019

10/13/2019

10/20/2019

10/27/2019

11/3/2019

11/10/2019

11/17/2019

11/24/2019

12/1/2019

12/8/2019

12/15/2019

12/22/2019

12/29/2019

1/5/2020

1/12/2020

Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg Bloomberg

8


THE DEMOCRATIC PR IMARYKey Primary States

E A R L Y S T A T E S ( I A , N H , S C , N V )

( N = 7 4 2 , M O E + / - 4 % )

Value% Change(W-o-W)

Joe Biden 27% -2%

Bernie Sanders 19% 0

Tom Steyer 15% 5%

Elizabeth Warren 12% -1%

Pete Buttigieg 9% -2%

Michael Bloomberg 5% 2%

Andrew Yang 4% -1%

Amy Klobuchar 3% 0

Tulsi Gabbard 3% 0

S U P E R T U E S D A Y S T A T E S( A L , A R , C A , C O , M E , M A , M N , N C , O K , T N , T X , U T , V T , V A )

( N = 5 , 7 2 8 , M O E + / - 1 % )


Joe Biden 28% -1%

Bernie Sanders 23% -2%

Elizabeth Warren 15% 1%


Pete Buttigieg 7% 0

Andrew Yang 5% 1%

Tom Steyer 3% -1%

Amy Klobuchar 3% 0

Tulsi Gabbard 2% 0

Candidates not listed received 2% or less of the vote. 9


THE DEMOCRATIC PR IMARYGeneration

G E N Z , 1 8 - 2 1( N = 9 1 5 , M O E + / - 3 % )


Bernie Sanders 45% 2%

Joe Biden 15% -1%

Andrew Yang 12% 2%

Elizabeth Warren 11% 0



M I L L E N N I A L , 2 2 - 3 7( N = 4 , 4 0 5 , M O E + / - 1 % )



Joe Biden 21% 1%


Andrew Yang 8% 1%

Pete Buttigieg 5% 0


G E N X , 3 8 - 5 3( N = 4 , 1 5 7 , M O E + / - 2 % )


Joe Biden 30% -1%





Andrew Yang 4% 0

Tom Steyer 3% 0

BOOMER, 54-72( N = 6 , 5 0 7 , M O E + / - 1 % )


Joe Biden 35% -3%





Tom Steyer 5% 0

Amy Klobuchar 4% 0



Value % Change(W-o-W)


Joe Biden 23% -1%


Andrew Yang 8% 2%


Pete Buttigieg 5% 1%

Tom Steyer 3% -1%

THE DEMOCRATIC PR IMARYRace/Ethnicity

W H I T E( N = 1 2 , 3 0 5 , M O E + / - 1 % )

Value % Change(W-o-W)

Joe Biden 26% -2%



Pete Buttigieg 10% 0


Andrew Yang 4% 0

Tom Steyer 4% 0

Amy Klobuchar 3% 0

B L A C K( N = 3 , 5 8 9 , M O E + / - 2 % )


Joe Biden 41% -1%



Michael Bloomberg 6% 0

Andrew Yang 4% 0

Tom Steyer 3% 0

H I S P A N I C( N = 1 , 9 8 3 , M O E + / - 2 % )

A S I A N A M E R I C A N( N = 4 1 4 , M O E + / - 5 % )


Joe Biden 25% -1%


Andrew Yang 15% -3%


Michael Bloomberg 9% -1%


O T H E R( N = 6 4 1 , M O E + / - 4 % )



Joe Biden 23% 1%



Andrew Yang 7% 3%




THE DEMOCRATIC PR IMARYPolitical Ideology

L I B E R A L( N = 9 , 7 8 1 , M O E + / - 1 % )


Joe Biden 26% -1%



Pete Buttigieg 9% 0


Andrew Yang 4% 0

Amy Klobuchar 3% 0

Tom Steyer 3% 0

M O D E R A T E( N = 4 , 7 1 1 , M O E + / - 1 % )


Joe Biden 35% -1%





Andrew Yang 4% -1%

Tom Steyer 5% 0

Amy Klobuchar 3% 0

C O N S E R V A T I V E( N = 1 , 8 1 4 , M O E + / - 2 % )


Joe Biden 32% -2%


Michael Bloomberg 11% 0


Tulsi Gabbard 6% 0

Pete Buttigieg 5% 0

Andrew Yang 5% 1%

Tom Steyer 4% -1%

Amy Klobuchar 3% 0



SECOND CHOICE

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Pete Buttigieg

Michael Bloomberg

Cory Booker

Current National

Vote Share

29%

↓

23%

↓

14%

↓

8%

↓

8%

↓

2%

↓

Voters’ Second Choice

29% Sanders20% Warren

14% Bloomberg

11% Buttigieg

33% Warren27% Biden9% Yang

34% Sanders23% Biden

12% Buttigieg

24% Biden18% Warren12% Sanders

11% Bloomberg

34% Biden13% Buttigieg13% Warren12% Sanders

24% Biden19% Sanders17% Warren

13

After voters registered their first choice, they were asked a follow-up about who they would choose as a second option. The results below show where the supporters for a selection of leading candidates could go next.


N A M E I D

99%

99%

94%

93%

84%

83%

81%

36%

31%

27%

14%

14%

18%

13%

39%

41%

38%

35%

34%

32%

33%

6%

6%

11%

19%

20%

17%

22%

6%

7%

16%

17%

19%

10%

13%

11%

16%

10%

10%

9%

7%

8%

8%

10%

6%

6%

4%

Bernie Sanders

Joe Biden

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Cory Booker

Pete Buttigieg

Andrew Yang

Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Heard Of, No Opinion Never Heard Of Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable

CANDIDATE FAVORABIL ITY

14


N A M E I D

76%

75%

71%

70%

66%

54%

12%

9%

5%

5%

3%

25%

28%

16%

17%

17%

14%

23%

22%

38%

22%

32%

26%

24%

25%

29%

30%

34%

46%

11%

11%

10%

14%

9%

7%

5%

5%

5%

13%

4%

4%

Amy Klobuchar

Tom Steyer

John Delaney

Tulsi Gabbard

Michael Bennet

Deval Patrick

Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Heard Of, No Opinion Never Heard Of Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable


15


16

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

11/11/19

11/18/19

11/25/19

12/2/19

12/9/19

12/16/19

12/23/19

12/30/19

1/6/20

1/13/20

Total Favorability Total Unfavorability Name ID Vote Share

Bloomberg

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

11/11/19

11/18/19

11/25/19

12/2/19

12/9/19

12/16/19

12/23/19

12/30/19

1/6/20

1/13/20

Total Favorability Total Unfavorability Name ID Vote Share

Steyer




THE GENERAL ELECTIONW H O ’ S L E A D I N G A M O N G R E G I S T E R E D V O T E R S


THE GENERAL ELECTIONAmong Registered Voters

46%

46%

43%

43%

42%

13%

13%

15%

15%

17%

41%

42%

42%

41%

42%

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders

Michael Bloomberg

Elizabeth Warren

Pete Buttigieg

D E M O C R A T D O N A L D T R U M P

18


THE GENERAL ELECTIONAmong Democratic Voters

89%

88%

86%

84%

82%

7%

7%

10%

11%

13%

5%

5%

4%

5%

6%

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Pete Buttigieg


19


THE GENERAL ELECTIONAmong Independent Voters

42%

38%

36%

35%

35%

25%

27%

30%

30%

31%

33%

34%

34%

35%

34%

Bernie Sanders

Joe Biden

Michael Bloomberg

Elizabeth Warren

Pete Buttigieg


20


THE GENERAL ELECTIONAmong Republican Voters

7%

7%

6%

6%

4%

7%

7%

6%

7%

8%

86%

87%

88%

87%

88%

Joe Biden

Michael Bloomberg

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Pete Buttigieg


21

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POLITICAL INTELLIGENCE - Morning Consult...analysis on the race for the White House....

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