Polishing the Crystal Ball: Using Historical Data to Project Serials

Trends and Pricing

Stephen Bosch, University of Arizona Kittie Henderson, EBSCO Information Services

Heather Klusendorf, EBSCO Information Services

What are price indices?What are price indices?

Periodic measurement of price changes among similar set of items to show market fluctuation

MMuch of the current work on serials pricing is based on: uch of the current work on serials pricing is based on: ““ANSI/NISO Z39.20 - Criteria for Price Indexes for Print Library Materials” published in 1999. “Describes how to prepare and compile price indexes to help you measure the extent of price changes on a periodic basis for a variety of library materials including hardcover trade and technical books, paperback books, periodicals, and microforms”.

Serials Pricing StandardSerials Pricing Standard

““ANSI/NISO Z39.20 - Criteria for Price Indexes for Print Library Materials”ANSI/NISO Z39.20 - Criteria for Price Indexes for Print Library Materials”

Link: http://bit.ly/ANSI_NISOLink: http://bit.ly/ANSI_NISO

Standards:

Serials Pricing Studies Serials Pricing Studies What’s Available?What’s Available?

Library Journal “Library Journal “Periodical Price Survey”Periodical Price Survey”

““Prices of U.S. and Foreign Published Materials” by the Prices of U.S. and Foreign Published Materials” by the ALA ALCTS Library Materials Price Index (LMPI) ALA ALCTS Library Materials Price Index (LMPI) Editorial Board in the Editorial Board in the Library and Book Trade AlmanacLibrary and Book Trade Almanac published by published by Information TodayInformation Today

Other studies such as the “American Association of Other studies such as the “American Association of Law Librarians Price Index for Legal Publications” Law Librarians Price Index for Legal Publications”

Different Approach, Similar Different Approach, Similar ConclusionsConclusions

The major differences in the pricing publications are in methodology.

The articles that appear in Library Journal are periodicals price surveys.

The work done for ALA ALCTS has traditionally been a periodicals price index.

What’s the Difference?What’s the Difference?

Price surveys generally gather information from broad sources in order to measure price changes in the market place

A price index will measure the change in price for a limited but consistent set of items

Pay no attention to that man behind the Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!curtain!

Methodology: Creating the LJ Survey

Data for the LJ survey is drawn from sets of serial titles contained in discreet packages, including:

Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Arts & Humanities Citation Index Science Citation Index Social Sciences Citation Index

EBSCO Publishing Academic Search Premier (ASP_ Masterfile Premier (MFP)

How Are the Titles Selected?

Titles included in the ISI products are selected based upon impact factor, impact factor, the average number of citations to the average number of citations to articles published in science and articles published in science and social science journals. social science journals.

Titles included in the EBSCO products Titles included in the EBSCO products are based upon EBSCO editorial are based upon EBSCO editorial policy. policy.

Methodology: Creating the LJ Survey

Pricing is derived from the EBSCO Information Services Title Database approximately 6,982 items indexed by the ISI

Indices approximately 3,660 titles in EBSCO ASP approximately 1,000 titles EBSCO Masterfile

Premier LJ Study includes titles published outside the

U.S. Titles may be included in both ISI and EBSCO

indices

Nitty GrittyNitty Gritty

More Nitty GrittyMore Nitty Gritty

Methodology: U.S. Periodical Price Index

The index produced by ALA ALCTS LMPI, the U.S. Periodical Price Index (USPPI) is drawn from a select sample of approximately 3,800 predominately print periodical titles published in the U.S.

Titles must meet definition of periodical outlined in ANSI Z39.20-1999: “A publication that comprises publications in a continuous series under the same title, published more than once a year over an indefinite period with individual issues in the series numbered consecutively or with each issue dated.”

Price Indexes for Print Library MaterialsPrice Indexes for Print Library Materials

A price index is an economic indicator that in systematic A price index is an economic indicator that in systematic fashion for a period of time and at fixed intervals of time fashion for a period of time and at fixed intervals of time (usually annual) provides for the derivation of average prices (usually annual) provides for the derivation of average prices and changes in terms of index numbers.and changes in terms of index numbers.

They describe the essential characteristics of various forms They describe the essential characteristics of various forms of library materials (according to the standard) to allow for of library materials (according to the standard) to allow for periodic measurement of those same characteristics.periodic measurement of those same characteristics.

A set of prices indexes is intended to meet administrative A set of prices indexes is intended to meet administrative needs for budgeting, materials price analysis, and other needs for budgeting, materials price analysis, and other purposes in libraries and other organizations with similar purposes in libraries and other organizations with similar information needs.information needs.

They represent a standard measurement of the market They represent a standard measurement of the market dynamics of a particular publication type (format) rather than dynamics of a particular publication type (format) rather than reflecting exact pricing for a specific library, publisher, or reflecting exact pricing for a specific library, publisher, or situation.situation.

How Are the Titles Selected and Maintained for the USPPI?

Titles are selected and maintained over to time in order to provide a comprehensive sample “market basket” to gauge changes in serials data.

Titles may fall off the USPPI list due to changes such as cessation or move to a format which requires a custom quote. Titles which closely match price, subject, and audience replace the dropped title in the index.

The methodology for the USPPI most closely resembles that used in others indices like the Consumer Price Index.

Methodology Similarities Methodology Similarities

Both studies rely on standard list pricing, usually print.

EBSCO provides pricing data for both studies.

Still More Nitty Gritty …..Still More Nitty Gritty …..

Different approaches, similar Different approaches, similar conclusionsconclusions

While approaches are different, both indicate that over the past few years periodical price inflation has consistently hovered in the 6-9% per annum range.

The main conclusion is the same!

Periodicals Price Survey 2011 | Under Pressure, Times Are Changing

How do the results of the price studies differ? The LJ Periodical Price Survey shows, for the ISI data, 7.6 % increase in 2008-09 and 4.4% increase in 2009-10, and 5.3% increase for 2010-11. The EBSCO ASP data shows a 9.4% increase in 2008-09 and a 4.1% increase in 2009-10, and 9.3% in 2010-11.The USPPI showed an overall increase of 7.1% 2008-09 and 6.4% in 2009-10.

Periodicals Price Survey 2011 | Under Pressure, Times Are Changing

No. of Titles

% of List

2011 Cost

% of Cost

Projected % of

Increase

Projected 2012 Cost

% of Cost

Projected Overall % Increase

ARTS AND HUMANITIES CITATION INDEXU.S. 448 35.0% $76,872 21.0% 6.6% $81,946 21.0% 6.2%

NON-U.S. 826 65.0% $282,434 79.0% 6.1% $299,663 79.0%

SOCIAL SCIENCES CITATION INDEXU.S. 948 46.0% $542,654 34.0% 7.0% $583,896 30.0% 6.6%

NON-U.S. 1,091 54.0% $1,070,991 66.0% 46.4% $1,152,386 70.0%

SCIENCE CITATION INDEXU.S. 1,370 39.0% $2,241,484 30.0% 7.6% $2,398,388 34.0% 7.6%

NON-U.S. 2,149 61.0% $5,231,719 70.0% 7.6% $5,566,549 66.0%

PROJECTED OVERALL INCREASE FOR ALL ISI TITLES: 6.7% SOURCE: LJ PERIODICALS PRICE SURVEY 2011

But which one is right for me?But which one is right for me?

It depends. It is very important to understand what

goes into a pricing tool and how it resembles or departs from local conditions.

So how does historical data So how does historical data turn into a forecast?turn into a forecast?

Data from recent price studies is the background for Data from recent price studies is the background for the development of projections – but the the development of projections – but the LJ LJ price price

survey reviews much broader spectrum of survey reviews much broader spectrum of information. information.

Year long scan of news sources to

keep up with changes in the

market, hundreds of articles, blogs, etc.

are reviewed

Review of other

economic data,

especially exchange

rates

Surveys of publishers and

libraries concerning expected $

trends

Interviews of industry

professionals to get a sense of

where things are going

After polishing – After polishing – what does the what does the

crystal ball show crystal ball show for the future?for the future?

Budgets for libraries and higher education are not in “recovery”.

After inflation calmed down last year, rates of increase are again on the rise with projections for next year approx. 7% for ISI titles and 8% for ASP.

With library budget in decline, this range of increase will be just as damaging as the price increases seen at the peak of the “serials crisis.”

No one comes out ahead - users will have decreased access to content - if budgets are going down and prices up something has to give!

Questions?

Heather KlusendorfMedia Relations CoordinatorEBSCO Information Services

Kittie S. HendersonDirector, Academic and Law Divisions

EBSCO Information Serviceskittieh@ebsco.com

Stephen BoschMaterials Budget, Procurement, and Licensing

Librarian University of Arizona Libraryboschs@u.library.arizona.edu