Polish Local Elections 2014

Polish Local Elections 2014: Overall Resultsand Allocation of Seats in Regional Assemblies

2

26,85% 26,36%

23,68%

8,78%

171179

157

28

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

PiS PO PSL SLD

Total number of seats in regional assemblies

Political Parties

3

Civic Platform (PO): one of the two major parties on the Polish

political scene since 2005. In government since 2007. Despite its

free market roots, the party has been taking an increasingly

social-democratic stance on social issues.

Law and Justice (PiS): since 2005 the main competitor of PO,

particularly strong in conservative constituencies. The party’s

platform embraces economic interventionism and protectionism,

combined with a strong socially conservative stance.

Democratic Left Alliance (SLD: a pro-European social-democratic

party, it is the historic successor to the Polish communist party

dissolved in 1990. Increasingly lagging behind the dominant PO

and PiS, and overshadowed in the local elections by both the PSL

and non-partisan urban movements.

Polish Peasant Party (PSL): a centrist agrarian party, with a

strong apparatus on the local level, increasingly representing the

interests of SMEs. On social issues the party maintains a

conservative profile. Since 2007, the junior coalition party of the

PO in government.

Regional Assemblies and City Mayorships

4

14

13

12

15

9

11

6

4

5

7 17

18

1610

3

1

2

8

1. Szczecin

2. Gorzów

Wlkp.

3. Zielona Góra

4. Wrocław

5. Poznań

6. Gdańsk

7. Bydgoszcz

8. Toruń

9. Opole

10. Katowice

11. Łódź

12. Olsztyn

13. Warszawa

14. Kielce

15. Kraków

16. Rzeszów

17. Białystok

18. Lublin

Non partisans

Main City Mayorships

5

Non

partisans46

29

13

12

5

6

Marek

Matraszek

Founding

Partner

Commentary

Following long delays in vote counting, Poland’s National ElectoralCommission (PKW) finally announced the official results of thefirst round of local government elections held on November 16th.Despite most ballots being cast for main opposition party Law andJustice (PiS), the ruling coalition parties Civic Platform (PO) andPolish Peasants Party (PSL) emerged as winners, controlling 15out of 16 regions.

The run-off races on November 30th for the mayorships of majortowns and cities underlined the key trend of the elections: PiS haddone well, but not well enough to secure key victories. In majorcities, PO candidates won the runoffs against PiS candidates, withonly a few exceptions. PO, despite achieving their worst resultsince 2005, won most seats at the regional level and maintainedits grip on most cities – the party’s candidates secured victories inŁódź and Lublin, won run-offs on November 30th in Warsaw,Gdansk, Wroclaw and Poznan, and recaptured some importantmiddle-sized towns. However these victories were achieved withnarrower margins than in 2010, and may point to more turnoverin the next local elections in 2018.

Commentary

7

The election results are a warning signal for PO. After seven years ofcontinuous victories, without its formidable leader Donald Tusk, mired ininternal rivalry between contenders for the party leadership, Civic Platformfaces a difficult electoral year in 2015. Losing its hitherto core electorate ofthe urban educated middle class, PO will have to set its course cautiously.

However, it is the PO’s junior coalition partner PSL which made the biggestgains – with the best ever election result for the party, securing 157 out of555 seats in regional assemblies. Once considered a narrow representation ofPolish farmers, PSL in recent years has became increasingly perceived as a“party of common sense”, opposing populist legislation and capturing localfootholds in towns and cities across Poland. One reason is its dynamicchairman with a penchant for campaigning in the field whilst allowingflexibility for local activists. Crucial was a rebellion by disillusioned POvoters, suspicious of Ewa Kopacz's shift to the left and doubtful that CivicPlatform remains dedicated to free market principles. PSL has become aparty of choice for small entrepreneurs, who believe that on a local level theycan rely on PSL commitments to support domestic businesses.

Commentary

8

Law and Justice proved unable to take power in key cities and provinces(although they did win a plurality of votes in six provinces), even givenfavourable conditions of the power void after Tusk’s departure to Brussels.PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński accused the PO and PSL of vote rigging anddemanded the elections to be voided. SLD leader Leszek Miller, joined him inthese claims after his own crushing defeat. Until now, Miller has alwayscriticised PiS, but with SLD scoring only 8.78% and finishing distant fourthwith barely 28 seats Miller is now in desperation switching tactics andattacking PO.

With the dust settling after the post-election chaos, two players haveemerged victorious. The first is PSL’s leader Janusz Piechociński, confidentlyopposing the vote-rigging claims. The second is President BronisławKomorowski, who has his own election battle to win in 2015, who cleverlyrefused to be drawn into the campaign. Radiating statesmanship, hecommitted also to amending the electoral code to prevent similar votingchaos in the future. Poles, tired of electoral conflict, welcomed his positionand Komorowski’s trust ratings as a result have soared again, entrenchinghim as the one of the most respected members of the Polish political class.

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