POLICY ROUNDTABLE: The Future of South Asia...around the details of the “surgical strike” in...
Transcript of POLICY ROUNDTABLE: The Future of South Asia...around the details of the “surgical strike” in...
POLICY ROUNDTABLE:
The Future of South Asia Oct. 1, 2019
Table of Contents
1. “Introduction: A Changed Status Quo: Key Dynamics in the India-
Pakistan Nuclear Relationship,” by Debak Das
2. “In Kashmir, An Uncertain Ending to a Contested Past,” by Myra
MacDonald
3. “Will the United States and China Keep India and Pakistan from Going
to War?” by Yelena Biberman
4. “U.S. Policy in South Asia: Short-Term and Long-Term Imperatives,” by
Michael Kugelman
5. “Climbing the Escalation Ladder: India and the Balakot Crisis,” by
Rohan Mukherjee
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
2
1. Introduction: A Changed Status Quo: Key Dynamics in the India-
Pakistan Nuclear Relationship By Debak Das
Political relations in South Asia have hit rough weather. In 2019 alone, the Line of Control in
Kashmir has seen continuous ceasefire violations by both India and Pakistan; there have
been two crises (one military and one political) between the two countries; both neighbors
have reminded the other, using veiled threats, that they possess nuclear weapons; and each
has implied that the threshold for using such weapons could change. So where does the
nuclear relationship between India and Pakistan stand? Where do the key threats to peace in
the region come from?
Three key dynamics currently mark the nuclear relationship between India and Pakistan.
The first is a possible change to India’s nuclear no-first-use policy — something the Indian
government has signaled through political statements and actions in the last few years. The
second is Pakistan’s and India’s development of new tactical and strategic nuclear delivery
systems. And the third is the lowering of the threshold for conventional military engagement.
Each of these dynamics points to a change in the erstwhile nuclear status quo in South Asia
and represents serious challenges to the security and stability of the region.
The No-First-Use Debate
No first use — one of the pillars of Indian nuclear doctrine since 2003 — is in doubt and has
been for some time.1 Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh’s statement in August 2019 that
“[w]hat happens in the future depends on the circumstances” raised questions about
whether the Indian government was about to change India’s nuclear doctrine and abandon
no first use.2 Importantly, Pakistan’s prime minister referred to this as a “not-so-veiled
1 Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang, “India’s Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine, and
Capabilities,” International Security 43, no. 3 (Winter 2018/2019): 7–52, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00340. 2 Elizabeth Roche, “Rajnath Singh Sparks Debate on No-First-Use Nuclear Doctrine,” Livemint, Aug. 16, 2019,
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/rajnath-singh-sparks-debate-on-no-first-use-nuclear-doctrine-
1565978545173.html.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
3
nuclear threat to Pakistan” in a recent New York Times op-ed.3 This was not the first time
that such a statement had been made by an Indian defense minister. In 2016, then-Defense
Minister Manohar Parrikar stated that India’s commitment to no first use was tantamount
to “giving away your strength.”4 These statements, along with the ruling Bharatiya Janata
Party’s pledge to revise India’s nuclear weapons doctrine in its election manifesto prior to
the 2014 elections (conspicuously absent in the 2019 manifesto) demonstrates that there has
been for some time an interest in the party to revise India’s nuclear doctrine.5
These statements have also been accompanied by qualitative changes in India’s nuclear
arsenal, raising further doubts about India’s commitment to its no-first-use policy. As
Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang have argued, India’s development of counterforce
capabilities — including multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs),
submarine-launched ballistic missiles like the K-4 Sagarika, short-range tactical ballistic
missiles (Prahaar), hypersonic missiles (Shourya), and cruise missiles (BrahMos and
Nirbhay) — indicates that there may come a time when the ready availability of these
capabilities will lead India to revisit its current countervalue targeting nuclear doctrine.6
It is no surprise that these developments have not been well received by Pakistan.7 While
Prime Minister Imran Khan’s September 2019 statement that Pakistan would not be the first
to start a war with India was briefly misinterpreted as indicating a Pakistani no-first-use
policy, in actuality, Pakistan’s policy of “full spectrum deterrence” does not preclude the first
3 Imran Khan, “Imran Khan: The World Can’t Ignore Kashmir. We Are All in Danger,” New York Times, Aug.
30, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/opinion/imran-khan-kashmir-pakistan.html. 4 Rama Lakshmi, “India’s Defense Minister Questions Its No First-Use Nuclear Policy — Then Says It’s His
Personal Opinion,” Washington Post, Nov. 10, 2016,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/11/10/indias-defense-minister-questions-its-no-
first-use-nuclear-policy-then-says-its-his-personal-opinion/. 5 Jason Burke, “Indian Election Alarm as BJP Raises Prospect of Nuclear Weapons Rethink,” The Guardian,
April 7, 2014, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/07/indian-election-bjp-manifesto-nuclear-
weapons. 6 Clary and Narang, “India’s Counterforce Temptations.” 7 Khan, “Imran Khan: The World Can’t Ignore Kashmir.”
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
4
use of nuclear weapons.8 This means that if India shifts away from no first use, it could
further destabilize the nuclear status quo in South Asia with both states pledging, whether
openly or tacitly, first-use nuclear doctrines.
New Tactical and Strategic Weapons Systems
Related to the no-first-use debate is the issue of each country’s development of new tactical
and strategic weapons systems. The last few years have seen considerable advances on this
front by both sides. Pakistan’s Hatf 9 Nasr, a short-range missile with a range of 70
kilometers; its ground- and air-launched cruise missiles, in the form of the Hatf 7 Babur and
the Hatf 8 Ra’ad, which have “stealth capabilities”; and its development of sea-launched
cruise missiles all represent a shift toward counterforce targeting under its doctrine of full-
spectrum deterrence.9 Additionally, Pakistan’s introduction of sea-based nuclear delivery
platforms (the Babur 3 sea-launched cruise missile) is meant to give the country a secure
second-strike capability against India and to operationalize its triad.10 Adding to these
counterforce capabilities is the Ababeel medium-range ballistic missile with a range of 2,200
kilometers. This missile, which is currently being developed, is reported to be equipped with
MIRV warheads.11
On the Indian side, apart from the aforementioned counterforce technologies it is
developing, New Delhi has also operationalized its nuclear triad with the first successful
“deterrence patrol” of the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine Indian Navy Ship
Arihant in November 2018.12 While this may have made India’s nuclear forces more
survivable, the submarine has little operational utility right now. The Arihant does not
currently have the ability to strike a target beyond 750 kilometers, which is the range of the
8 Ankit Panda, “What Exactly Did Pakistan’s Prime Minister Say About the Country’s Nuclear Weapons?,” The
Diplomat, Sept. 3, 2019, https://thediplomat.com/2019/09/what-exactly-did-pakistans-prime-minister-say-
about-the-countrys-nuclear-weapons/. 9 Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris, and Julia Diamond, “Pakistani Nuclear Forces, 2018,” Bulletin of the
Atomic Scientists 74, no. 5 (September 3, 2018): 348–58. 10 Kristensen, Norris, and Diamond, “Pakistani Nuclear Forces, 2018,” 355. 11 Kristensen, Norris, and Diamond, “Pakistani Nuclear Forces, 2018,” 354. 12 Franz-Stefan Gady, “Indian Navy Boomer Completes ‘First Deterrent Patrol,’” The Diplomat, Nov. 6, 2018,
https://thediplomat.com/2018/11/indian-navy-boomer-completes-first-deterrent-patrol/.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
5
only operational missile on the submarine.13 It is expected that with the future Indian K-
series missiles like the K-4 Sagarika, the sea leg of the Indian nuclear triad will become more
robust. However, this may take some time to achieve.
Apart from the arms race that the introduction of these weapons has fostered, it is unclear
how command-and-control mechanisms have been or will be modified to keep up with these
systems. Short-range tactical nuclear weapons may require delegating launch authority to
battlefield commanders. For its part, India fears that this may be the case with Pakistan’s
Hatf 9 Nasr. Likewise, it is unclear what India intends to do with its Prahaar missile system
once it becomes operational. Additionally, there is little information on the command-and-
control system for India’s Arihant nuclear submarine. As Happymon Jacob points out, unlike
the air- and land-based nuclear platforms in India, where the nuclear warheads are under the
control of civilian organizations, the canisterized missiles in the Arihant would be under
military control with the captain of the submarine possessing launch authority.14 This would
represent a shift away from India’s previous policy of de-mating its nuclear warheads and
nuclear delivery systems.
In sum, each country’s new tactical and strategic weapons systems pose serious challenges
to regional stability. Not only has this new weaponry engendered an arms race, it also raises
serious problems with regard to nuclear command and control.
Lower Threshold of Military Engagement
Another dynamic that marks the India-Pakistan nuclear relationship is the recently lowered
threshold for military engagement.15 This could lead to an escalation that eventually reaches
the nuclear red lines of one of the two states involved. The “surgical strike” conducted by
13 Manoj Joshi, “INS Arihant’s Deterrence Patrol: More Hype than Necessary,” Observer Research Foundation,
Nov. 6, 2019, https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ins-arrogant-deterrence-patricks-more-hype-than-
necessary-45427/. 14 Happymon Jacob, “Aligning the Triad: On India’s Nuclear Deterrence,” The Hindu, Nov. 23, 2018,
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/aligning-the-triad/article25570465.ece. 15 Moeed Yusuf, “The Pulwama Crisis: Flirting with War in a Nuclear Environment,” Arms Control Today, May
2019, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-05/features/pulwama-crisis-flirting-war-nuclear-environment
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
6
India in September 2016 and the Balakot strike in February 2019 both demonstrated a new
Indian policy of engaging in conventional retaliatory strikes against Pakistan in response to
terror attacks emanating from its side of the Line of Control. While there was some ambiguity
around the details of the “surgical strike” in 2016, with Pakistan denying its occurrence, the
Balakot strike of 2019 led to a conventional escalation.16 Pakistan responded to the Indian air
strikes on its soil, and in the ensuing air battle over Kashmir, an Indian Mig-21 fighter was
shot down and the pilot captured. While the crisis de-escalated in the weeks following
Pakistan’s release of the Indian pilot, the incident’s implications are nevertheless important.
India’s new policy of retaliatory strikes has led to a lower threshold for military engagement
than was previously the case. This policy implies that in order to demonstrate resolve, India
will now be under pressure to retaliate in some measure every time there is a terrorist attack
on Indian territory. Such an aggressive policy runs two risks. The first is that the greater the
number of conventional military strikes on an adversary, the higher the chance of escalation.
The second is that at some point the pressure to show resolve may lead to baiting by India’s
adversaries, leading to inadvertent escalation. Both India and Pakistan will have to be careful
to avoid these outcomes.
Furthermore, the role of elections and public pressure in India’s militarily assertive response
to Pakistan in February 2019 is important to consider.17 The Balakot airstrike became a major
issue in the Indian elections that followed the crisis, making national security a salient issue
in election campaigns.18 The consequent success of the Bharatiya Janata Party demonstrates
16 M. Ilyas Khan, “India’s ‘Surgical Strikes’: Truth or Illusion?,” BBC News, Oct. 23, 2016,
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37702790. 17 Suchitra Vijayan and Vasundhara Sirnate Drennan, “After Pulwama, the Indian Media Proves It Is the BJP’s
Propaganda Machine,” Washington Post, March 4, 2019,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/03/04/after-pulwama-indian-media-proves-it-is-bjps-
propaganda-machine/; Barkha Dutt, “India Has Made Its Point in Pakistan. Time to Let the Diplomats Do the
Hard Talk,” Washington Post, Feb. 27, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/02/27/india-has-
made-its-point-pakistan-time-let-diplomats-do-hard-talk/. 18 Joanna Slater and Niha Masih, “India’s Modi Wins Resounding Election Victory with Potent Appeal to
Nationalism,” Washington Post, May 23, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-
election-results-modi-remains-favored-to-win-as-counting-starts/2019/05/22/830b9f60-7cb4-11e9-b1f3-
b233fe5811ef_story.html.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
7
that the tactic worked. This sets a dangerous precedent in South Asia whereby politicians
use muscular foreign policy associated with conventional military strikes for electoral benefit
— a strategy that could eventually lead to an uncontrollable escalation between two nuclear-
armed neighbors.
Takeaways
Undoubtedly, the status quo in the India-Pakistan nuclear relationship has changed. Thus
far, strategic stability has continued to hold. However, the potential for instability has
increased greatly, owing to India’s potential abandonment of its no-first-use policy, the
modernization and introduction of tactical and strategic weapons systems, and the lowering
of the threshold for conventional military engagement. Moreover, the rhetoric surrounding
nuclear weapons and their potential use has not helped.
There is, however, a silver lining. Despite the rising tensions and increased hostility between
India and Pakistan, some of the major nuclear confidence-building measures have endured
and been in effect. The most prominent among these are the Agreement on the Prohibition
of Attack against Nuclear Installations and Facilities (1988), the Agreement on Pre-
Notification of Flight Testing of Ballistic Missiles (2005), and the Agreement on Reducing the
Risks from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons (2007).19 In fact, the exchange of the list
of nuclear installations as a part of the 1988 agreement has taken place every year since
1992.20 This is evidence that institutionalized confidence-building measures, once
negotiated, can work in South Asia. Of course, negotiating such measures in the first place is
another matter.
19 Tanvi Kulkarni, “India-Pakistan Nuclear CBMs: A New Approach,” South Asian Voices, May 19, 2016,
https://southasianvoices.org/india-pakistan-nuclear-cbms-a-new-approach/. 20 “India and Pakistan Exchanged List of Nuclear Installations,” Ministry of External Affairs, Government of
India, Jan. 1, 2019, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-
releases.htm?dtl/30858/India+and+Pakistan+exchanged+list+of+Nuclear+Installations.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
8
Introducing the Roundtable Contributions
As the other contributors to this roundtable — Myra MacDonald, Yelena Biberman, Michael
Kugelman, and Rohan Mukherjee — highlight, beyond the nuclear relationship between
India and Pakistan, there are a number of other important factors that affect relations
between the two states and the future of security in Asia.
Perhaps the most significant issue in India-Pakistan relations is Kashmir. MacDonald argues
that even if the recent abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian constitution and the breaking
up of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories is an irreversible
move, the consequences will remain unpredictable for a long time. MacDonald writes that
Pakistan’s history suggests that it is likely to “exploit any renewed violence in the Kashmir
Valley to weaken India.” Her historically rich piece also suggests that the Kashmir issue does
not simply involve India and Pakistan — China could prove to be integral to how the current
crisis plays out.
Indeed, international actors have played an important role in India-Pakistan crises. Biberman
considers India-Pakistan relations from the angle of great power competition between the
United States and China. Her article contends that the China-Pakistan relationship, and the
more recent U.S.-Indian alignment, are not durable arrangements and come with their own
sets of stresses. Biberman argues that, given Pakistan’s unique position as an ally of both
China and the United States, the latter needs to reconsider its own alignment toward India.
If anything, she argues, “Pakistan is uniquely positioned to curtail China’s global aspirations,
both economically and from a security perspective.”
Continuing with the theme of international actors in South Asia, in his contribution,
Kugelman argues that the United States could bring South Asia into its Indo-Pacific strategy
by pursuing two goals in the region: boosting connectivity and tackling terror. Kugelman lays
out a strategy for U.S. foreign policy that focuses on ending the Afghanistan war in the
immediate future and emphasizes strengthening U.S.-Indian relations in the long term. In
contrast to Biberman’s argument, his article sees India as the United States’ most important
partner in the region and recommends deepening ties with it. Kugelman argues that by
creating connectivity and tackling terrorism in South Asia, the United States can rival the
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
9
entrenched Chinese presence in the region and mobilize the South Asian states to advance
its Indo-Pacific strategy.
Finally, in his discussion of the Balakot Crisis of February 2019, Mukherjee argues that,
contrary to popular belief, the Indian airstrike was not a sudden or revolutionary decision.
Instead, it was a product of the evolution of the India-Pakistan strategic dynamic over the
previous two decades. Tracing strategic developments in this time period, the article argues
that India’s boldness in responding conventionally to cross-border terrorism gradually
increased after the 1999 Kargil War when Pakistan failed to follow through on its nuclear
threats. The puzzle, Mukherjee states, “is not so much why Modi chose this option but why
previous prime ministers did not.” Consequently, Mukherjee concludes that Balakot did not
create a new normal that increases the risks of war.
Taken together, this roundtable seeks to understand the current crises in South Asia and the
security situation in the region in general. It highlights some of the most important trends in
the ongoing security dynamics between India and Pakistan: the changing nuclear
relationship between the two countries, the crisis in Kashmir, the recent Balakot crisis, the
role of international actors in mitigating and/or exacerbating tensions, and what policy
measures members of the international community might take to attempt to manage the
region better.
Debak Das is a MacArthur Nuclear Security Pre-doctoral Fellow at the Center for
International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. He is also a Ph.D. candidate
in political science in the Department of Government at Cornell University.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
10
2. In Kashmir, An Uncertain Ending to a Contested Past Myra MacDonald
When the British civil servant Walter Lawrence was posted to Kashmir in the late 19th
century to carry out a land revenue settlement, he was struck by the sheer volume of
rumors, with a new one brought to his camp almost every hour. These rumors had their
origin in an area of the old city of the Kashmiri capital Srinagar, around a bridge called the
Habba Kadal. Lawrence called it the Hawa Kadal, translating it as the “Bridge of Air.” “The
Kashmiris are called ‘Hawabin’, ‘those who see the air’ and they loved and lived on
rumour,” he wrote in his memoirs, The India We Served.21 “To them nothing seems real or
permanent, and the very idea of settlement was strange.”
In August, the Indian government unilaterally imposed such a settlement in the biggest
constitutional change in India’s only Muslim-majority state in 70 years. It revoked the
autonomy of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, split it into two by separating its
Ladakh region, and announced both would become union territories directly ruled by New
Delhi. To control the flow of information and stem rumors, it imposed a communications
blackout and enforced an unofficial curfew. Several thousand Kashmiris, including
mainstream pro-India politicians, were arrested without charge. Despite howls of outrage
from Pakistan, which controls part of the state but claims it in full, India is not expected to
reverse course. The government, led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party,
enjoys strong domestic support after winning a landslide election victory in May. Moreover,
its actions on Jammu and Kashmir fit with a broader view in the country that the region is
an integral part of India and that constitutional and administrative changes there are an
internal matter. Domestic criticism has largely focused on the means used rather than the
ends, while internationally, disapproval has been muted, except for from Pakistan’s
traditional ally, China. India’s large and growing economy, combined with impatience with
Pakistani support for Islamist militant proxies, has meant that it faced little pushback.
But if the move is irreversible, its consequences are unpredictable. This is not only because
of the usual volatility in relations between India and Pakistan, which both tested nuclear
21 Walter Roper Lawrence, The India We Served (Cassel and Company, Ltd, 1928).
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
11
weapons in 1998. It is also because the conflict over what was once the princely state of
Jammu and Kashmir actually comprises multiple overlapping conflicts. Among these is
opposition to Indian rule in the Kashmir Valley, the most heavily populated part of Jammu
and Kashmir and the heartland of a Pakistan-backed separatist insurgency that erupted in
the late 1980s. The Kashmir Valley’s reaction to the revocation of its autonomy has been
delayed by the Indian clampdown, prompting worries about what will happen when
restrictions are lifted. Kashmiri sentiment is in turn caught in the giant maw of the India-
Pakistan rivalry. Both Pakistan and India see control of Kashmir as an affirmation of their
national identities, with the former asserting its claim on the basis of a shared faith in Islam
and India rejecting religion as a determinant of the region’s fate. The two countries are not,
however, limited to an ideological confrontation over the Kashmir Valley. Both also have
strategic interests in the mountainous territories of the state that border Chinese Central
Asia. On the Indian side, Ladakh — the region newly separated from Jammu and Kashmir —
has contested frontiers with China’s politically sensitive Xinjiang province and Tibet. A
dispute over these frontiers led to a 1962 border war in which India was defeated by China.
On the Pakistan side, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a billion-dollar infrastructure
project meant to link Chinese Central Asia with Pakistani ports on the Arabian Sea and the
Gulf, runs through the former princely state’s Gilgit-Baltistan region. In addition to these
competing interests in the region are violent Islamist groups eager to exploit any
discontent. With so many elements in play — nuclear weapons, jihadist groups, Kashmiri
anger, border disputes, trade, money, and the three-way strategic competition between
India, Pakistan, and China — it would be reckless to forecast the outcome.
The best way to grasp the extent of the unpredictability is to imagine a giant piece of
machinery with many moving parts, none of which interlock properly with each other. Each
part is furthermore operated by different groups, none of which is in a position to know for
sure how their actions will affect the overall process. The challenge will be in making sense
of the different moving parts and how they interact with each other as the region enters a
new phase of volatility.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
12
A Contested Past
The princely state of Jammu and Kashmir was created in the mid-19th century by a Hindu
ruler who forged disparate fiefdoms in the northwest of India into a single entity about the
size of Britain. Dominated by the Himalayan and Karakoram mountains, the state acquired
its peculiar mix of emotional resonance and strategic importance long before India and
Pakistan began fighting over it. The Kashmir Valley, romanticized by the Moghuls as
paradise on earth, was celebrated worldwide for its beauty. But it represented barely more
than 10 percent of the territory of the state. Of greater strategic importance were — and are
— the large but sparsely populated regions to the north and east whose mountains and high
cold deserts separate the Indian subcontinent from Chinese Central Asia.
When the Indian subcontinent was partitioned into Hindu-majority — but secular — India
and Muslim Pakistan in 1947, Kashmir’s Hindu maharajah hesitated about whether to join
one or the other country, or try to remain independent. Facing an invasion by tribesmen
from Pakistan, he signed an accession treaty with India in exchange for military support. In
the war that followed between India and Pakistan, Jammu and Kashmir was torn in two.
India ended up with the larger part, the area that now comprises the union territories of
Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. Pakistan held a stretch of land it renamed Azad Kashmir
(Free Kashmir) along with Gilgit and Baltistan. The ceasefire line where both countries’
armies stopped fighting in 1948 eventually formed the basis for a division of the state along
what is today called the Line of Control. At the time, the U.N. Security Council passed a
resolution calling for a plebiscite to allow the people to decide whether to join India or
Pakistan. Only Pakistan continues to press for the implementation of this resolution
although it is purely rhetorical. In reality, Pakistan has never been willing to meet a major
condition of the resolution — that it first withdraw Pakistani nationals from its side of the
state.22 India claims all of the state on the basis of the accession treaty and insists any
arguments with Pakistan must be settled bilaterally.
22 “Resolutions Adopted by the Security Council in 1948,” United Nations Security Council,
https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/resolutions-adopted-security-council-1948.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
13
With the region already a flashpoint for India and Pakistan, China became involved in the
1950s as its new communist rulers moved to occupy what they saw as the country’s historic
borders and sent troops to take over Tibet. To improve the movement of troops and
supplies, the Chinese built a road between Xinjiang and Tibet that ran through the Aksai
Chin, an uninhabited expanse of high cold desert on the fringes of Ladakh. The borders of
Ladakh had never been agreed upon and India claimed the Aksai Chin as its own. The
dispute, combined with tensions on the eastern end of the border, escalated into the 1962
war and a humiliating defeat for India. The Aksai Chin remains in Chinese hands, while
India continues to claim it as part of Ladakh.
A year after that war, Pakistan reached a border agreement with Beijing covering its part of
the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir, ceding to China territory to the north of the
Karakoram mountains called the Trans-Karakoram Tract, known in shorthand as
Shaskgam. India claims it as part of Jammu and Kashmir and argues that Pakistan had no
right to give it up. Importantly, the border agreement smoothed the way for an alliance
between Pakistan and China and the building of the Karakoram Highway between Xinjiang
and Gilgit-Baltistan. It is this road that forms the basis of the transport and trade links of
the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Then in the late 1980s, the separatist insurgency erupted in the Kashmir Valley and was
quickly backed by Pakistan, using Islamist militants it had initially trained to fight the 1979–
1989 Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. At least 50,000 people were killed in the insurgency,
which spiraled into suicide bombings and “fedayeen” attacks by gunmen ready to fight to
the death. Kashmir’s minority Hindu population was attacked and forced to flee. Violence
has decreased considerably since then. According to the Delhi-based South Asia Terrorism
Portal, a total of 451 people, including civilians, security forces, and insurgents, died in the
Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir in 2018, compared to 3,288 in 2000.23 But discontent has
festered, leading to sporadic protests by youths throwing stones and rocks at Indian
security forces and prompting some young men to join small groups of armed militants.
23 “Datasheet – Jammu and Kashmir,” South Asia Terrorism Portal, https://www.satp.org/datasheet-terrorist-
attack/fatalities/india-jammukashmir#.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
14
Repeated efforts to reach a peace settlement between India and Pakistan have foundered.
After the nuclear tests in 1998, then-Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee travelled to
Pakistan in early 1999, hoping the presence of nuclear weapons would make war
unthinkable and peace inevitable. Within months, however, the two countries were
embroiled in the Kargil War, a border conflict that erupted after Pakistani troops crossed
the Line of Control in the remote mountains between Baltistan and Ladakh. Under intense
pressure from the United States, which feared the war could escalate and turn nuclear,
Pakistan was forced to pull back its troops. Then, between 2003 and 2007, a draft peace plan
was negotiated in behind-the-scenes talks. In essence, it would have given autonomy to the
different parts of Jammu and Kashmir while Pakistan and India retained authority over
foreign policy, defense, and communications on their respective sides of the Line of
Control. There would be no exchange of territory, but India and Pakistan would work
together to make borders irrelevant by encouraging trade, travel, and tourism across the
Line of Control. Domestic politics in both countries prevented them from finalizing an
agreement, and any hope of peace vanished after the November 2008 Mumbai attacks in
which the Pakistan-backed Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group killed 166 people. With smaller-
scale attacks launched by Pakistan-based militant groups continuing periodically, India has
become convinced that Pakistan has no interest in a lasting peace.
A Contested Present
By revoking Kashmir’s autonomy and dismembering the state, the Indian government has
set out to break the mold. In doing so, it is following the path taken by a previous
government led by the Bharatiya Janata Party when it tested nuclear weapons. Despite
international opprobrium and anxiety — President Bill Clinton called South Asia the most
dangerous place in the world in 2000 — India survived the storm. Within a decade, India
had won recognition from Washington for its nuclear-armed status and staked a claim to be
treated as a serious global power. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has now crossed a similar
Rubicon. A legal challenge to the changes in Kashmir is not expected to succeed. Moreover,
the dismemberment of the state is popular in Buddhist-dominated Ladakh, which has long
resented being overshadowed by the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley. The Jammu region
has a Hindu majority and shares Ladakh’s frustration. Since the three regions are unlikely
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
15
to make common cause to put the state back together again, its dismemberment carries the
same finality as the nuclear tests.
The outside world, India reckons, will just have to get used to it. The government argues
that greater central control will allow it to introduce better governance and tamp down
simmering violence. India’s dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir had reached a stalemate,
punctuated by acts of terrorism by Pakistan-based Islamist militant groups. By breaking up
the state and incorporating its constituent parts into India, the government has essentially
declared that there is no longer a dispute. Many Indian commentators have also pointed to
the possible departure of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and highlighted the need to insulate
Kashmir from any spillover of renewed jihadi violence.24 Of all the arguments for why the
Indian government has made this decision, however, the most convincing — albeit ethically
unpalatable — is simply because it can. How well this gamble will play out depends on the
multiple players with a stake in the region.
Within the Kashmir Valley, it is fair to assume that the revocation of autonomy and the
lockdown that accompanied it will consolidate resentment against India. That assumption
is borne out by early reports by Indian journalists and researchers who have been allowed
into Kashmir.25 However, in an environment that is, somewhat ironically, more awash in
rumors than ever, given restrictions on mobile and internet communications in the valley, it
is as yet unclear what form that opposition will take. Substantively, the government’s
decision to revoke Kashmir’s autonomy — carried out by gutting Article 370 of the Indian
constitution that had granted it special status — changes little. India had been hollowing
out Kashmir’s autonomy for decades. But the perceived threat to Kashmiris’ ethnic and
religious identity will resonate emotionally, all the more so since the government also
removed restrictions on outsiders buying land in Kashmir, leading to fears of demographic
24 See for example Ashok Malik, “Jammu-Kashmir and Ladakh: Exploring a New Paradigm,” Observer
Research Foundation, Aug. 7, 2019, https://www.orfonline.org/research/jammu-kashmir-and-ladakh-
exploring-a-new-paradigm-54185/. 25 Khalid Shah. “Kashmir: the situation is abnormally ‘normal’,” Observer Research Foundation, Sept 17, 2019,
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/kashmir-the-situation-is-abnormally-normal-55579/
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
16
change. Whether this resentment dissipates into the sullen peace of the graveyard or
coalesces into a revived insurgency remains to be seen.
The Kashmir Valley’s exact response is all the harder to predict given that it has been vague
about what it wants. Though Muslim majority, it has never expressed an outright desire to
become part of Pakistan. The most frequently heard demand is for “azadi,” or freedom, a
rallying cry that can mean anything from independence to autonomy to the dignity that
would come from improved living conditions and an end to human rights abuses by Indian
security forces. An opinion poll published by Britain’s Chatham House think tank in 2010,
one of the few conducted in the region, showed a large majority of people in the valley were
in favor of independence for the whole of the erstwhile princely state.26 However, those
demanding independence have never been required to explain how this would work. The
chances of gaining independence for the whole of Jammu and Kashmir are just as unlikely
as those for a plebiscite — neither India nor Pakistan would countenance it. Nor does it
have support in different parts of the state beyond the Kashmir Valley. Independence for
the valley alone would be economically untenable, even if it were not sandwiched between
two hostile states.
Nor have those calling for independence been given the political space to make, or lose,
their case. Those wanting to participate in mainstream politics had to pledge their
commitment to India. The demand for “azadi” has, therefore, functioned more as a vehicle
for anti-India grievances rather than a defined agenda.
Without a clear focus for independence or secession to Pakistan, Kashmiri politics, both
official and unofficial, have historically been fraught by division. Those divisions may be
lessened by the revocation of autonomy, but they will not disappear altogether. Some
Kashmiris could limit their demands to a restoration of statehood. Islamists, for their part,
will try to use the crisis to enforce a strict interpretation of Islam. Optimists hope Kashmiris
will find a non-violent means of asserting their identity, encouraged by an older generation
weary of conflict. Pessimists point to Kashmiri youth who have grown up traumatized by
26 Robert Bradnock. “Kashmir: Paths to Peace,” Chatham House, May 26, 2010,
https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/109338.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
17
conflict and are now angry and cynical about any prospect for improvement.27 Moreover,
cynicism among the youth can easily be channeled into the nihilistic ideology of
international Islamist groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, which in recent years have
been picking up small pockets of support in the valley.
As for Pakistan, history suggests it will exploit any renewed violence in the Kashmir Valley
to weaken India. Kashmiri deaths at the hands of Indian armed forces suit the Pakistani
security state apparatus, because they help cast India as an existential enemy while shoring
up Pakistan’s identity as a besieged, militarily dominated Muslim homeland. In the past,
Pakistan has had no hesitation in stoking violence through funding militants and helping
them infiltrate Kashmir, and through the use of propaganda, all the while claiming to
champion human rights in Kashmir. Yet, India’s decision to revoke Kashmir’s autonomy
comes at a difficult time for Pakistan. Its economy is flailing: It has just reached the latest in
a series of bailout agreements with the International Monetary Fund, and it faces intense
pressure from the international Financial Action Task Force over terrorism financing and
money laundering. Balanced against those constraints are all the reasons why Pakistan has
so far refused to disarm its Islamist militant proxies and has clung to its anti-India ideology.
The Pakistani army derives its domestic dominance from enmity with India. It also
genuinely sees the much larger India as an existential threat and its militant proxies as an
insurance policy against Indian hegemony in South Asia. That Pakistan continued to cling
to its militant groups even after its acquisition of nuclear weapons shielded it from an
Indian invasion shows just how much they matter to it. And, of course, there is the need to
divert the attention of Islamist militants toward India to keep them under control and
prevent them from turning on the Pakistani state.
The Indian government, meanwhile, has used a hardline approach to Kashmir to please its
main constituency in an increasingly assertive Hindu majority. Its ability to revoke
Kashmir’s autonomy without wider consultation also serves as a warning of the might of
the state to those who might defy it. Underneath this strident nationalism, however, lies a
27 Myra MacDonald, “Changing Young Minds in Kashmir: Youth Rage and the Prospects for Peace,” War on
the Rocks, Sept. 14, 2018, https://warontherocks.com/2018/09/changing-young-minds-in-kashmir-youth-rage-
and-the-prospects-for-peace/.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
18
more challenging outlook. Within the Kashmir Valley, India has so far prevented any big
upsurge in violence through an influx of security forces and a clampdown on
communications and political activity. But the longer it maintains the lockdown, the more it
will stoke Kashmiri resentment and risk even greater violence when restrictions are lifted.
And while the Indian government has the capacity to maintain the lockdown for months in
the hope of wearing Kashmiris down, it may find it increasingly hard to fend off questions
from the international community about its curtailment of civil liberties.
Should Pakistan launch militant attacks in response to Delhi’s actions in Kashmir, India’s
response is also hard to predict. Modi has vowed to end Pakistani terrorism and in his
previous term in office showed his readiness to retaliate after attacks by Pakistan-based
militant groups. In 2016, India sent troops into Pakistani Kashmir to strike at militants
based there after an attack on an Indian army camp. While such tactical raids had been
going on for years, Modi’s government was the first to announce one publicly and then
celebrate it with much fanfare. Earlier this year, he went further, ordering airstrikes against
a militant training camp in Pakistan proper following a suicide bombing against Indian
security forces.28 It was the first use of air power in history by one nuclear-armed nation
against another and the first military action by India in Pakistan proper since their 1971 war.
As a result, India and Pakistan have entered an unpredictable and dangerous phase in
which assumptions that the presence of nuclear weapons would limit Indian retaliation no
longer apply.
Nonetheless, the experience of previous Indian governments suggests there are limits to
how far India can rely on military retaliation alone. During the 1999 Kargil War, it needed
U.S. support to force Pakistan to pull back its troops. Another crisis in 2001–2002, triggered
by an attack on the Indian Parliament, also highlighted the constraints on military action.
Though India mobilized its army for all-out war, it did not invade Pakistan for fear of a
conflict that might turn nuclear. Even without the presence of nuclear weapons, it is
questionable whether India had the capacity in conventional warfare to deliver a quick
28 Abu Arqam Naqash, Sanjeev Miglani, “India Launches Airstrike in Pakistan; Islamabad Denies Militant
Camp Hit,” Reuters, Feb. 26, 2019, https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-india-kashmir-pakistan/india-launches-
air-strike-in-pakistan-islamabad-denies-militant-camp-hit-idUKKCN1QF07P.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
19
knock-out blow to Pakistan.29 Its large army was slow and cumbersome, and badly in need
of modernization. The Indian government also had to contend with the fact that the risk of
war was threatening foreign investment and economic growth. War was averted and India
ultimately adopted a now-discarded policy of “strategic restraint,” eschewing military
retaliation in order to focus on building its economy.
To be sure, much has changed in the balance of power between India and Pakistan since
then. India’s economic growth has made it one of the world’s largest economies — in
seventh place at the latest count — giving it far more clout on the international stage. Yet, it
still needs to consider the risks any conflict would pose to its economy, all the more so
since growth is slowing.30 Its defense forces still require modernization, as highlighted in
this year’s airstrikes on Pakistan, which appear to have had only limited impact on their
intended target. Moreover, an Indian plane was subsequently shot down and its pilot
captured. India also faces an expanding Pakistani nuclear arsenal, which now includes
tactical nuclear weapons.
China is another wild card. Despite its contested borders with India and its alliance with
Pakistan, it has been reluctant to see a full-blown war on its doorstep. In the past, it has
frowned on Pakistani adventurism, refusing, for example, to support it during the Kargil
War. In its initial reaction to India’s revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy, Beijing expressed
alarm over the changes as well as over the altered status of Ladakh, and called for an
informal discussion on the subject at the U.N. Security Council. But it described India as a
friendly country, and one with which it intended to continue long-running talks to resolve
their border dispute. The relationship between Asia’s two largest countries, which since
1962 have managed to contain their border dispute to occasional localized skirmishes, could
worsen, however, if India’s ambitions for Kashmir go too far. Several Indian government
minister and many Bharatiya Janata Party sympathizers have already talked about
reclaiming the Pakistani side of Jammu and Kashmir, posing a threat to Gilgit-Baltistan, the
29 Walter C. Ladwig, “A Cold Start for Hot Wars? The Indian Army’s New Limited War Doctrine,” International
Security 32, no. 3. (Winter, 2007/2008): 158–90, https://www.jstor.org/stable/30130521. 30 Eric Bellman, “India’s Economic Growth Slows to Six-Year Low,” Wall Street Journal, Aug. 30, 2019,
https://www.wsj.com/articles/indias-economic-growth-slows-to-six-year-low-11567168382.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
20
only land bridge between Pakistan and China. The Indian government has also been vocally
reasserting India’s claim to the Aksai Chin, whose use as a link between Xinjiang and Tibet
is crucial to China.
An Unsatisfactory Ending
The Indian decision to bring its side of Jammu and Kashmir under central control
formalizes a division of the erstwhile princely state that began in 1947. This breaking up of
the state, made all the starker by the separation of Ladakh, essentially means the conflict
over Jammu and Kashmir is being addressed not by resolving its disputed status, but by
erasing its existence altogether. It is not a satisfying ending to a conflict that has dragged on
for 70 years. The Line of Control is not a natural border, either geographically or culturally.
Its geographical anomalies have been a source of conflict between India and Pakistan for
decades and it separates places and people who once had close family, trade, cultural, and
religious ties. The Indian move puts paid to any hopes, however unrealistic, that the
different parts of the former princely state could be reunited as an autonomous or
independent entity.
However unsatisfying an outcome, it is nonetheless the reality. The outside world can, at
best, quietly encourage talks between India and Pakistan, assert the importance of civil
liberties in Kashmir and across the region, and continue to prod Pakistan to disarm its
militant groups. Beyond that, however, the world will have to learn to live with the region’s
unpredictability in the short term and acknowledge there is no easy fix or forecast.
Walter Lawrence writes of meeting an old Kashmiri Hindu who was standing on his head
among a crowd of petitioners. When Lawrence asked why, the old man replied that his
affairs had been turned upside down by the land revenue settlement and he no longer knew
whether he was standing on his feet or his head. It was meant to be a joke, and everyone
including the elderly Hindu laughed. But the old man had a point about the lack of
permanence in Kashmir. Now the entire region has been turned upside down.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
21
Myra MacDonald is a specialist on South Asia and author of two books on India and
Pakistan. Her latest book, Defeat is an Orphan: How Pakistan Lost the Great South Asian
War,31 looks at how relations between India and Pakistan changed since their nuclear tests
in 1998. Her first was on the Siachen war.
3. Will the United States and China Keep India and Pakistan from
Going to War? By Yelena Biberman
South Asia is experiencing substantial structural shocks. The United States has abandoned
its prolonged partnership with Pakistan while courting India to counterbalance China.
Simultaneously, China and Pakistan are forging unprecedented economic ties. Are these
changes helping to stabilize South Asia? Or do they raise serious risks of conflict in the region,
with the possibility that China and the United States could be dragged into a future crisis
directly?
These questions are all the more pressing given that India and Pakistan are once again
standing on the brink of war, following India’s revoking of Kashmir’s special status as an
autonomous state and corresponding crackdown.32 Meanwhile, intense great power
31 Myra MacDonald, Defeat is an Orphan: How Pakistan Lost the Great South Asian War (London: C. Hurst &
Co., 2016).
32 Imran Khan, “Imran Khan: The World Can’t Ignore Kashmir. We Are All in Danger,” New York Times, Aug.
30, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/opinion/imran-khan-kashmir-pakistan.html.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
22
competition between China and the United States is on the horizon.33 Whether India and
Pakistan will go to war depends not only on the domestic dynamics within each state, but
also on international factors. Key among the latter is the nature and durability of the alliances
between China and Pakistan, as well as between the United States and India. These alliances
are based on pragmatism and a “balance of interests.” And while these ostensible allies do
not necessarily share each other’s interests, they do satisfy them.34
How (Un)Stable Is South Asia?
Views diverge sharply on how close Pakistan and India are to war. One influential line of
reasoning argues that the two countries’ possession of nuclear weapons alone will prevent
any full-fledged conflict from erupting.35 Accordingly, the involvement of great powers —
with their own nuclear weapons — adds another layer of protection by amplifying the
mechanism of nuclear deterrence.
Others see nuclearization as having encouraged more provocative Pakistani behavior and
aggressive Indian responses, with the outbreak of full-scale war, consequently, seeming to
be only a matter of time.36 The cover provided by China and the United States further
encourages the two regional rivals to take greater risks. Even an attack by a non-state actor,
such as in the recent Pulwama incident,37 increases the chances of a situation escalating
dangerously.
Where both of these logics fall short, however, is in their assumption that the current U.S.-
India and China-Pakistan relationships are durable. They are not. One is fickle; the other, a
33 David M. Edelstein, “The Persistence of Great Power Politics,” Texas National Security Review 2, no. 2
(February 2019): 117, http://dx.doi.org/10.26153/tsw/1940. 34 For the concept of “balance of interests,” see Yelena Biberman, Gambling with Violence: State Outsourcing of
War in Pakistan and India (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019), 28. 35 Sumit Ganguly, “Nuclear Stability in South Asia,” International Security 33, no. 2 (Fall 2008): 45–70,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/40207131. 36 S. Paul Kapur, “Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia,” International Security 33, no. 2 (Fall 2008):
71–94, https://www.jstor.org/stable/40207132. 37 Yelena Biberman, “Ending Terror in Kashmir,” Political Violence @ a Glance, Feb. 22, 2019,
http://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2019/02/22/ending-terror-in-kashmir/.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
23
gamble. South Asia is no more stable — or unstable — than it has been since it openly went
nuclear in 1998. The recent “trade war” between the United States and India,38 and India’s
subsequent turn to China and Russia,39 is the latest manifestation of India’s pragmatism and
America’s unpredictability — hardly a recipe for a stable alliance.40
The question of whether the unprecedented economic cooperation between China and
Pakistan — in the form of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor infrastructure projects —
could morph into a security alliance so durable that it emboldens Pakistan regionally and
China internationally is more complicated.
All-Weather Friends?
Never before have Pakistan and China collaborated so intensely. The former was known as
“America’s most allied ally in Asia” during the early Cold War years,41 a time when it had only
limited engagement with China. The 1962 Sino-Indian War turned Pakistan’s attention
toward China as a potential counterforce to its main foe, India. But, during its subsequent
two wars with India (in 1965 and 1971), Pakistan received little assistance from China.
Still, following the breakaway of the country’s eastern wing in 1971, Pakistani Prime Minister
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto expanded economic cooperation between the two countries. China began
assisting in Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, while Pakistan played a key role in the U.S.-
China rapprochement. With the United States pulling back its military, political, and
economic support for Pakistan in recent years, China has stepped in to provide vital financial
support for massive infrastructure projects across the country.
38 Ana Swanson and Vindu Goel, “Trump Administration Strips India of Special Trade Status,” New York Times,
May 31, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/trump-india-trade.html. 39 Atul Aneja, “China, India, Russia Consider Joint Front to Counter Trump’s Trade War,” The Hindu, June 24,
2019. 40 Sumit Ganguly and S. Paul Kapur, “The Myth of Indian Strategic Restraint,” National Interest, June 18, 2019,
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/myth-indian-strategic-restraint-63232. For more on the present state of
U.S.-India relations, see Sameer Lalwani and Heather Byrne, “The Elephant in the Room: Auditing the Past and
Future of the U.S.-India Partnership,” War on the Rocks, June 26, 2019, https://warontherocks.com/2019/06/the-
elephant-in-the-room-auditing-the-past-and-future-of-the-u-s-india-partnership/. 41 Mohammed Ayub Khan, “The Pakistan-American Alliance,” Foreign Affairs, January 1964,
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1964-01-01/pakistan-american-alliance.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
24
In January 2015, Pakistan’s army chief went to China to open “new doors of cooperation”
between the two countries. The Chinese leadership responded by designating Pakistan the
“most reliable friend” and an “irreplaceable all-weather friend.”42 Less than four months
later, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Pakistan to unveil the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor — an investment that is now valued at around $60 billion43 — to build a network of
roads, railways, and pipelines between the two countries.
Questions about whether China was taking advantage of Pakistan like it did Sri Lanka —
through big loans with long strings attached — began to mount,44 as did concerns that the
project might potentially destabilize a politically-strained country by “widening social
divides and generating new sources of conflict.”45 Few mainstream Pakistani politicians,
however, challenged the investments, except to demand that their respective regions receive
a larger share.46 A major reason for this was the military establishment’s view that a
partnership with China had an important security purpose. It functioned as “a counterpoint
to rising U.S. diplomatic and economic pressure to end support to Afghanistan- and India-
oriented militant proxies.”47
A Joint Gamble
The China-Pakistan partnership is held together by a peculiar force: a joint gamble. Pakistan
has made a credible commitment to China by gambling with its own economy and security.
42 “China Says Pakistan ‘Most Reliable Friend’, Vows to ‘Help in All Respects’,” Dawn, Jan. 26, 2015,
https://www.dawn.com/news/1159585. 43 Sabrina Toppa, “Why Young Pakistanis Are Learning Chinese,” The Atlantic, Nov. 14, 2018,
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/11/pakistan-china-cooperation-cpec/568750/. 44 Maria Abi-Habib, “How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port,” New York Times, June 25, 2018,
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html. 45 “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Opportunities and Risks,” Crisis Group Asia, no. 297, June 29, 2018, i,
https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/pakistan/297-china-pakistan-economic-corridor-opportunities-
and-risks. 46 Patrick Wintour, “‘All-Weather Friendship’: But Is Pakistan Relying Too Heavily on China?” The Guardian,
Aug. 3, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/aug/03/all-weather-friendship-but-is-pakistan-relying-
too-heavily-on-china. 47 “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,” ii.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
25
China credibly committed to Pakistan by risking the security of its nationals (and its
investments) in Pakistan and exacerbating the conflict in Xinjiang. The stakes for both
countries are very high. And they are the glue that keeps the partnership together.
Among the most serious threats to China’s economic activities in Pakistan are militant
Uyghur organizations, such as the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement, as well as Baloch
and Sindhi separatist outfits, such the Baluchistan Liberation Army and Sindhudesh
Liberation Army.48 Chinese officials deem Uyghur militants a serious threat to the over $1
trillion Belt and Road Initiative (of which the Pakistan corridor is a “crown jewel”). After all,
its overland portion originates in the Uyghur-populated western region of Xinjiang. Uyghur
militants have received safe haven in Pakistan in the past,49 but they no longer do. There are
now stricter border controls and crackdowns. Meanwhile, Pakistani officials have kept silent
about China’s harsh treatment of the Uyghur Muslim minority.50
The Baloch insurgents have demanded adequate compensation for resource extraction in
Balochistan, claiming that the Baloch have long been oppressed by the Pakistani central
government through a lack of adequate infrastructure construction and investment in the
needs of the people. Militant organizations, such as the Baluchistan Liberation Army and
Lashkar-e-Baluchistan, claim that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is not bringing in
additional development for the Baloch people. They view China as complicit with the
Pakistani government in denying their people needed development assistance and have
killed dozens of Chinese workers and numerous Pakistani military personnel since the
beginning of the infrastructure agreement. Despite the deployment of over 17,000 additional
Pakistani troops to the region, Baloch insurgents have been able to carry out high-profile
attacks. In May 2019, the Majeed Fidayeen Brigade, the Baluchistan Liberation Army’s suicide
48 “‘Sindhi Nationalists’ Target Chinese Engineer in Karachi Bombing,” Pakistan Today, May 30, 2016,
https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2016/05/30/remote-control-explosion-injures-three-including-chinese-
national/. 49 Veena Ramachandran, “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: The Uyghur Challenge and the Chinese Security
Model,” The Diplomat, March 30, 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/china-pakistan-economic-corridor-
the-uyghur-challenge-and-the-chinese-security-model/. 50 Matt Rivers and Lily Lee, “Former Xinjiang Teacher Claims Brainwashing and Abuse Inside Mass Detention
Centers,” CNN, May 9, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/09/asia/xinjiang-china-kazakhstan-detention-
intl/index.html.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
26
squad, attacked a luxury hotel in Gwadar. In 2018, it attacked the Chinese consulate in
Karachi and a bus carrying Chinese engineers in Balochistan’s Dalbandin district.51
China does not have a formal security strategy for the Pakistani arm of the Belt and Road
Initiative, but it is very concerned about the safety of its projects and its citizens in Pakistan.
It has used a variety of methods to address these concerns. These have included quietly
holding talks with select Baloch militants;52 providing diplomatic cover to powerful Islamist
organizations, such as Jaish-e-Mohammed, so as to avoid becoming a target of their ire;53
supporting Pakistan’s efforts to stabilize Afghanistan; and even operating its own army and
private military contractors inside Pakistan.54 There have also been sightings of Chinese
troops along the Line of Control that runs through Kashmir, much to the alarm of the Indian
security establishment.55
Pakistan has also significantly strengthened its own security apparatuses. It formed the
army-led Special Security Division and the Special Protection Units — the latter was raised
by each province from their police departments. The Pakistani Navy created a special wing
to protect the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’s sea lanes. Gwadar, a previously isolated
port city in Balochistan province that is now the heart of the network of infrastructure
projects, was turned into “something of a military cantonment” with the local population
facing “routine harassment at security checkpoints.”56
51 Farhan Zahid, “BLA’s Suicide Squad: Majeed Fidayeen Brigade,” Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Monitor
17, no. 2 (Jan. 25, 2019): 3-4, https://jamestown.org/program/blas-suicide-squad-majeed-fidayeen-brigade/. 52 Farhan Bokhari and Kiran Stacey, “China Woos Pakistan Militants to Secure Belt and Road Projects,”
Financial Times, Feb. 19, 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/063ce350-1099-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb. 53 Yelena Biberman and Jared Schwartz, “China and Pakistan Have Struck a Devil’s Bargain with Militants,”
Foreign Policy, April 5, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/china-and-pakistan-have-struck-a-devils-
bargain-with-militants/. 54 Selig S. Harrison, “China’s Discreet Hold on Pakistan’s Northern Borderlands,” New York Times, Aug. 26,
2010, https://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/opinion/27iht-edharrison.html. 55 “Chinese Army Troops Spotted Along Line of Control in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir,” Economic Times of
India, July 12, 2018, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/chinese-army-troops-spotted-along-
line-of-control-in-pakistan-occupied-kashmir/articleshow/51380320.cms. 56 Muhammad Akbar Notezai, “Will Balochistan Blow Up China’s Belt and Road?” Foreign Policy, May 30, 2019,
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/30/will-balochistan-blow-up-chinas-belt-and-road/.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
27
Conclusion
Alliance patterns in South Asia are changing. The U.S.-India alliance is relatively weak, with
both sides willing to partner with the other’s rivals when it fits their interests. The emerging
Pakistan-China alliance rests on a firmer foundation, one that is literally being built across
Pakistan with billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure investment. It may prove more
durable than the pragmatic cooperation between India and the United States.
Despite the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’s dual-use potential, its immediate purpose
is to provide China with greater access to global trade and to stimulate growth in its western
provinces. Whatever Beijing’s long-term plans for South Asia, it is currently focused on
consolidating its position in the Asia-Pacific and, ultimately, globally. Pakistan and India will
continue to clash over their disputed territories regardless of any great power presence.
Preventing such skirmishes from escalating is something that is, for now, in China’s interest.
Provoking or failing to prevent open conflict in the region would be a step backwards for
China’s regional efforts that support its larger global strategy to ensure unparalleled access
to trade and continued economic growth at home.
If containing China is the name of the game for the United States, then it would benefit from
reinvesting in its relationship with Pakistan. India will “balance” China only if it deems it to
be in its own interests, not because the United States wants it to do so. When and if that time
comes, India will itself turn to the United States for assistance and may even be willing to
compromise on knotty issues, such as Kashmir. Pakistan is uniquely positioned to curtail
China’s global aspirations, both economically and from a security perspective. It is not an
easy ally, but neither is the United States. Still, there is enough shared history — with
Pakistan playing a prominent role not just in helping the United States defeat the Soviet
Union through covert action in Afghanistan, but also in the historic rapprochement with
China and, more recently, negotiations with the Afghan Taliban57 — to provide a solid
57 Yelena Biberman and Jared Schwartz, “Pakistan Is Ready for Stability in Afghanistan,” East Asia Forum,
March 29, 2019, https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2019/03/29/pakistan-is-ready-for-stability-in-afghanistan/.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
28
foundation for cooperation and lessons for how best to move the relationship forward in a
“mutually beneficial” way.58
At the same time, the United States should not try to force Pakistan to terminate its
partnership with China. Pakistan is unlikely to honor such a request and instead would be
forced to play yet another “double game.”59
Yelena Biberman is an assistant professor of political science at Skidmore College and
nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center. Her book, Gambling
with Violence: State Outsourcing of War in Pakistan and India, was recently published by
Oxford University Press. She specializes in the study of political violence, South Asian
politics, and unconventional warfare.
Acknowledgements: The author thanks Farhan Zahid and Thomas Rodems for their
assistance with this article.
58 Summary of the National Defense Strategy of the United States of America, U.S. Department of Defense,
January 2018, 8, https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-
Summary.pdf. 59 Carlotta Gall, The Wrong Enemy: America in Afghanistan, 2001– 2014 (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt,
2014).
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
29
4. U.S. Policy in South Asia: Short-Term and Long-Term Imperatives By Michael Kugelman
It’s hard to overstate the strategic significance of South Asia.
The region sits astride the Indian Ocean region — one of the world’s busiest sea trade
routes — and serves as a gateway to the Middle East and East Asia. It houses a quarter of
the world’s population. It is home to threats that range from terrorism, insurgency, and
nuclear weapons to poverty, natural resource shortages, and climate change. And it is
ground zero for the sharpening strategic competition between the two Asian giants, India
and China.
And yet, South Asia is a region where the U.S. footprint is not nearly as deep as that of its
Chinese rival. Washington has traditionally viewed South Asia through a narrow lens, with
an emphasis on three separate silos: Afghanistan, where U.S. forces have been fighting a
war for nearly two decades; India, where Washington is pursuing a fast-growing
partnership; and Pakistan, where the United States manages a difficult but longstanding
relationship. The smaller states of South Asia, on the other hand, tend to receive short
shrift from Washington, in sharp contrast to Beijing’s plentiful investments and influence.
The Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy aims to widen U.S. engagement in South
Asia by building deeper ties with America’s longstanding friend, India, but also by
developing new partnerships with other South Asian states that make up the Indo-Pacific
region’s western reaches.60 However, to establish substantive and lasting region-wide
engagement, Washington will need to go beyond mere lip service and put some substantive
meat on the rhetorical bones of its regional engagement plan.
60 “Indo-Pacific Strategy Report: Preparedness, Partnerships, and Promoting a Networked Region,” U.S.
Department of Defense, June 1, 2019, https://media.defense.gov/2019/May/31/2002139210/-1/-
1/1/DOD_INDO_PACIFIC_STRATEGY_REPORT_JUNE_2019.PDF. For a broader articulation of the Indo-
Pacific strategy, see Mike Pompeo, “Remarks on America’s Indo-Pacific Economic Vision,” Indo-Pacific
Business Forum, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, July 30, 2018, https://www.state.gov/remarks-on-americas-indo-
pacific-economic-vision/.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
30
U.S. policy can achieve its goal of bringing South Asia into its Indo-Pacific strategy through
the pursuit of two region-wide goals: boosting connectivity and tackling terrorism.
However, U.S. policy should first address two more immediate goals: negotiating an end to
the war in Afghanistan and making more headway in its partnership with India. The
positive consequences of achieving these short-term goals — more stability in a volatile
region and a deeper relationship with a country that Washington regards as a key partner in
its Indo-Pacific strategy — will facilitate the longer-term U.S. objective of more robust
regional engagement in South Asia. And by extension, this will enable Washington to make
real progress with its Indo-Pacific strategy.
Short-Term Policy Priorities
For nearly two decades, the conflict in Afghanistan and America’s partnership with India
have been front-burner U.S. policy priorities in South Asia. Negotiating an end to America’s
longest-ever foreign war and strengthening a deep but flawed relationship with New Delhi
should constitute Washington’s two main short-term goals in South Asia.
Ending the Unending War in Afghanistan
President Donald Trump’s eagerness to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan has led to a
promising but risky effort to negotiate an end to the conflict. Just how challenging this
effort will be was underscored on September 7, when Trump abruptly called off talks
between the U.S. government and the Taliban — even though the two sides were on the
cusp of a troop withdrawal deal following multiple rounds of negotiations. Trump stated
that his government could not continue conducting talks with the Taliban because of the
group’s refusal to stop staging attacks during negotiations. However, even though Trump
declared that talks are dead, the administration has signaled — including, perhaps, through
Trump’s move on September 10 to fire National Security Adviser John Bolton, a vocal
opponent of talking to the Taliban — that it may be willing to resume talks.61 If negotiations
61 Sarah Westwood, Kevin Liptak, and Devan Cole, “US Still Interested in Taliban Peace Deal, Pompeo Says,”
CNN, Sept. 8, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/08/politics/mike-pompeo-taliban-peace-talks-
cnntv/index.html.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
31
do resume, reaching an agreement will be all the more challenging. Nevertheless, pushing to
restart them is the right thing to do.62
In recent months, lead U.S. negotiator and special adviser to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad
held nine rounds of talks with senior Taliban representatives. Washington identified
several key agenda points: an agreement on a U.S. troop withdrawal deal, a commitment
from the Taliban to deny space to international terrorists, a Taliban ceasefire, and an intra-
Afghan dialogue — comprising the Taliban, the Afghan government, and other key Afghan
political stakeholders — that hashes out a postwar political settlement.
Khalilzad’s job has always been a tall order. The Taliban, not the U.S. government, is
negotiating from a position of strength. The insurgents have arguably never been stronger.
They control and contest more territory now than at any time since U.S. forces entered
Afghanistan in 2001. And, unlike Washington, they are in no hurry to get a deal. Not
surprisingly, the sequencing of the talks that produced the now-suspended U.S.-Taliban
deal went in the Taliban’s favor. Negotiations largely focused on the first two agenda points.
The first, a troop withdrawal plan, is the Taliban’s core goal in talks. The second, a Taliban
promise to deny space to international terrorists, is an easy sell to the insurgents given that
al-Qaeda is a shadow of its former self and the Islamic State is a Taliban enemy. These were
the two points that comprised the U.S.-Taliban deal. There was little progress with the
other agenda points — a Taliban ceasefire and an intra-Afghan dialogue. The insurgents
refused even to implement a brief truce to coincide with this year’s Eid holiday (they had
agreed to one in 2018). And they have consistently refused to let Kabul join their talks with
Washington, which has led to tensions between the U.S. and Afghan governments. Not
surprisingly, the emerging U.S.-Taliban deal did not commit the Taliban to a ceasefire or to
launching intra-Afghan talks. This is one reason why many in Washington were unhappy
about the deal, and was one factor that accounts for Trump’s decision to call off talks.63
62 See Michael Kugelman, “Getting to ‘Yes’ Has Just Gotten a Lot Harder in Afghanistan,” Foreign Policy, Sept.
12, 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/12/getting-to-yes-has-just-gotten-a-lot-harder-in-afghanistan-
taliban/. 63 Jessica Donati, Michael C. Bender, and Craig Nelson, “Divided White House Promoted Trump to Call Off
Taliban Talks,’ Wall Street Journal, Sept. 8, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghan-government-praises-
trump-suspension-of-u-s-taliban-negotiations-11567956075.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
32
Had the deal been finalized, there would have been risks galore for Washington. The United
States could have ended up agreeing to a troop withdrawal deal before the Taliban had
stopped fighting and started talking to Kabul about a post-war settlement. And even if the
Taliban had stopped fighting and started talking to Kabul, it could have taken up arms again
if it didn’t like what it was offered in negotiations — or if there was a deal that it ended up
not liking.
Looming over all this is the possibility that an impatient Trump, even if he decides to try to
get negotiations back on the rails, could give up on talks entirely and pull troops unilaterally
in the absence of a deal. Such a move could cause rapid destabilization in Afghanistan,
thereby imperiling the stability that constitutes America’s chief interest in South Asia.
Still, despite these risks, negotiating with the Taliban is the right thing to do, simply
because there is no alternative. U.S. officials have now wisely recognized that the war can’t
be won militarily. Accordingly, Washington should stay the course on talks — even with the
added complication of the Afghan presidential elections currently scheduled for September
28. Given the likelihood of election rigging and fraud, the election outcome will probably be
contested, leading to a long period of political uncertainty and extended delays before the
new government is installed. This means that even if Washington chooses to pursue new
talks, election-related distractions in Afghanistan will delay their resumption.
If the United States does eventually reach a troop withdrawal deal, it should refuse to
remove any troops until the Taliban has laid down its arms and begun an intra-Afghan
dialogue. It should push for the establishment of a monitoring mechanism, ideally overseen
by the United Nations, to ensure that the Taliban abides by any commitments it makes in an
agreement. Additionally, U.S. negotiators should insist that any agreement allow America to
maintain access to several bases in Afghanistan in order to maintain a small presence of
troops to serve as trainers and advisers to the Afghan security forces, and to offer counter-
terrorism assistance amid the threat from the Islamic State that U.S. officials warn is
rapidly worsening.64
64 Kathy Gannon, “Islamic State Expands Reach in Afghanistan, Threatening West,” Associated Press, June 10,
2019, https://www.apnews.com/0a4f38c0ead84ecba2e0102c8b3b0b40.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
33
A sad irony of U.S. policy is that Afghanistan’s key neighbors share Washington’s desire for
a negotiated end to the war, but poor U.S. relations with these nations — China, Iran,
Pakistan, and Russia — hamper prospects for cooperation between Washington and key
regional actors on achieving this goal. The good news is that Islamabad has helped bring the
Taliban to the table for the current talks with the United States. For this reason, if talks do
resume, Washington should refrain from applying excessive bilateral pressure — much less
imposing punitive measures — on Pakistan as part of its longstanding effort to get
Islamabad to crack down on the terrorists operating on its soil. However, this should not
preclude Washington from continuing to work in multilateral settings — such as the United
Nations and the Financial Action Task Force, which monitors terrorist financing — to keep
the pressure on Islamabad. Judging by Islamabad’s recent decision to arrest dozens of
militants and shutter their facilities, such multilateral pressure appears to be bearing fruit.65
Meanwhile, Washington should actively encourage any efforts by China, Russia, and Iran —
three nations that have already sought to take on a greater role in Afghanistan and to
cultivate ties with the Taliban — to push the Taliban toward reconciliation, particularly if
the Taliban were to agree to a deal with the United States on a troop withdrawal plan. It
would be at that critical moment, when the impending departure of U.S. forces presents a
tantalizing battlefield advantage for the insurgents and may tempt them to take up the fight
again, that pressure from multiple quarters to lay down arms would be most essential.
To be sure, given the Taliban’s leverage in talks, not to mention its categorical rejection of
the Afghan political system, getting the insurgents to agree to a peace deal will be difficult.
Still, given the lack of alternatives, Washington should pursue negotiations so long as the
Taliban continues to be amenable to them. In a worst-case scenario, where there is no deal
or there is another deal that falls through, U.S. officials could at least say they tried their
best, and that they exhausted both the military and the diplomatic options in their efforts
to end the war. And in a best-case scenario, there would be some type of deal that would
65 Manu Pubby, “Action on LeT, Jaish-e-Mohd, Hizbul: Pakistan Shuts 13 Camps Across LoC Ahead of Anti-
Terror Body’s Plenary,” Economic Times, June 10, 2019,
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/action-on-let-jaish-e-mohd-hizbul-pakistan-shuts-13-
camps-across-loc-ahead-of-anti-terror-bodys-plenary/articleshow/69718715.cms.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
34
produce a modicum of stability in Afghanistan and enable America to focus more on its
broader goals in South Asia tied to the Indo-Pacific strategy.
If talks resume and once again collapse or a deal appears unachievable, Trump should not
pull all troops and head for the exits. Instead, he should sharply reduce but not eliminate
the U.S. troop presence and authorize the remaining American forces to focus exclusively
on training, advising, and counter-terrorism. This would enable Trump to tell his political
base — particularly with next year’s presidential election in mind — that he is bringing
troops home, while also continuing to fight the terrorists that threaten America.
Pushing for Deeper Partnership with India
Since the early 1990s, and especially since the early 2000s, U.S.-India relations have enjoyed
rapid growth. Impelled by shared democratic values, convergent interests related to shared
concerns about terrorism and China, and the advocacy of a large and active Indian-
American community, the bilateral relationship has arguably never been stronger. And yet,
today, largely because of the Indo-Pacific strategy, the imperatives for deepening that
partnership have arguably never been more compelling.
When discussing this policy, Trump administration officials — more so than when Obama
administration officials spoke about their Asia rebalance policy — explicitly link India to the
strategy’s success. “The United States will work with like-minded nations — from India to
the Pacific Islands — to advance our shared interests,” Vice President Mike Pence wrote in
a Washington Post op-ed about the strategy in 2018.66 In private briefings, senior
administration officials describe India as a central pillar of the Indo-Pacific strategy.
New Delhi is on board with the strategy’s overall goals. It has its own comparable policy,
called Act East, which like the Indo-Pacific strategy intends to ramp up investments and
activities in East and Southeast Asia. Indian officials trumpet the same themes and terms —
free, open, inclusive, and rules-based — as their U.S. counterparts when describing their
66 Mike Pence, “The United States Seeks Collaboration, Not Control, in the Indo-Pacific,” Washington Post,
Nov. 9, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mike-pence-the-united-states-seeks-collaboration-
not-control-in-the-indo-pacific/2018/11/09/1a0c330a-e45a-11e8-b759-3d88a5ce9e19_story.html.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
35
vision for the region. Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself, in a speech at the Shangri-La
Dialogue in Singapore in 2018, described the Indo-Pacific as a “free, open, and inclusive
region” that needs a “common, rules-based order” and should feature a “rules-based, open,
balanced and stable trade environment.”67
In both Washington and New Delhi, there is a strong consensus in favor of deep
partnership — but the current partnership is far from perfect. Defense ties are warmer than
economic relations, and recent months have brought some serious bilateral trade tensions.
Accordingly, Washington should prioritize efforts to ease commercial tensions. New Delhi
has been strikingly restrained, both in rhetoric and in action, as the Trump administration
— as part of its broader hardline position on global trade — has imposed tariffs on Indian
steel and aluminum products and revoked trade privileges on $6 billion worth of Indian
exports. New Delhi’s public reactions have been muted, and it has not taken retaliatory
steps.
Accordingly, Washington can do its part to help ease economic tensions by taking some
conciliatory steps. Given Trump’s strident hard line on trade, it is unlikely he will ease up
on his tariff measures. Instead, the White House should give New Delhi more flexibility to
import oil from Iran, one of India’s top suppliers of foreign hydrocarbons. Washington has
refused to extend short-term waivers to several countries, including India, which had
enabled them to keep doing business with Tehran after the reimposition of tough White
House sanctions. A new waiver for India — which has often reduced, at considerable risk to
its energy security, oil imports from Iran after previous U.S. sanctions — would be a
welcome step. Washington can also avert a crisis with New Delhi by not penalizing India for
deciding to acquire a new missile defense system from Russia in defiance of U.S. sanctions
against Moscow.
At the same time, Washington should continue moving forward on the defense side — not
just to pursue common goals, but to build more overall goodwill to help the two sides work
through their troubles on the economic front. In recent years, the United States and India
67 “Prime Minister’s Keynote Address at Shangri La Dialogue,” Media Center, Ministry of External Affairs,
Government of India, June 1, 2018, https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-
Statements.htm?dtl/29943/Prime+Ministers+Keynote+Address+at+Shangri+La+Dialogue+June+01+2018
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
36
have concluded several foundational agreements that enable their militaries to work closer
together. A chief objective now should be reaching agreement on the only foundational
accord yet to be finalized — the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement, which would
allow India to access U.S. geospatial technology to improve the accuracy and effectiveness
of its advanced weaponry.68
Finally, Washington should pursue greater cooperation with New Delhi in Afghanistan. To
be sure, the options are limited. Pakistan’s role in the U.S.-Taliban talks has effectively shut
its Indian rival out, and Washington’s determination to negotiate with the Taliban despite
Kabul’s absence has not sat well in New Delhi, which has a close partnership with the
Afghan government. Still, if negotiations are resumed, Washington can work with New
Delhi outside the talks, particularly by sharing intelligence on the location and movements
of terrorists in Afghanistan — including Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, India-
focused Pakistani groups that have had a presence in Afghanistan.
The Long View: Toward a Truly Regional South Asia Policy
The Trump administration envisions South Asia playing a major role in its Indo-Pacific
strategy. In an August 2018 briefing, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for South and
Central Asia Alice Wells stated that the administration “will build our commitment” to the
Indo-Pacific by allocating $100 million to South Asia — including $39 million to Bangladesh,
$40 million to Sri Lanka, and $17 million to Nepal. That funding, she said, would focus on
maritime security, humanitarian assistance, peacekeeping capabilities, and countering
transnational crime, “all of which are key to ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.”69
Similarly, a Department of Defense strategy report on the Indo-Pacific published in June
2019 lays out plans to develop new partnerships with these countries — along with the
Maldives — to combat illicit drugs, human trafficking, transnational crime, and terrorism.70
68 Shishir Gupta, “India, US to Take Forward Talks for Key Military Pact,” Hindustan Times, April 3, 2019,
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-us-to-take-forward-talks-for-key-military-pact/story-
bi2IfgMjKtKsfA2wjTqQzM.html. 69 Alice Wells, “U.S. Policy in the Indian Ocean Region,” Washington Foreign Press Center, Aug. 20, 2018,
https://www.state.gov/u-s-policy-in-the-indian-ocean-region/. 70 “Indo-Pacific Strategy Report,” U.S. Department of Defense.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
37
These investments, while promising, are numerous and diffuse, suggesting the difficulties
of making real and substantive progress with all of them. To truly deepen its engagement
with South Asia within the Indo-Pacific strategy purview, Washington should narrow the
scope and focus on two areas with considerable potential for cooperation: connectivity and
counter-terrorism.
Creating Connectivity
South Asia is notoriously disconnected, thanks to poor infrastructure, poverty, conflict,
tense interstate relations, and an ineffective regional organization known as the South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. Both the Obama and the Trump
administrations have offered plenty of rhetoric about the imperatives of supporting cross-
border connectivity projects. But they have rarely followed through. Beijing, meanwhile,
has expanded its Belt and Road Initiative deep into South Asia. Washington should move
beyond rhetoric and focus on concrete efforts to build greater connectivity in the broader
region — not in an effort to catch up to Beijing, which is impossible, but rather to achieve its
goal, articulated by the last two U.S. administrations, of reducing barriers between South,
Central, and East Asia.
For example, the Trump administration should focus on the New Silk Road initiative, an
idea Hillary Clinton originally articulated as secretary of state in 2011 that aims to better
connect South and Central Asia.71 Aside from backing several projects, including the
construction of a natural gas pipeline involving Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and
India, the Obama administration didn’t act on this vision. Trump’s first budget, released in
2017, identified the New Silk Road initiative as part of its funding request for activities in
South and Central Asia.72 However, little has been done since then.
71 Hillary Clinton, “Remarks on India and the United States: A Vision for the 21st Century,” Anna Centenary
Library, Chennai, India, July 20, 2011, https://2009-
2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2011/07/168840.htm. 72 “U.S., India to Revive ‘New Silk Road’ Seen as Counter to China’s Belt and Road Project,” Press Trust of
India, May 24, 2017, https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/us-india-to-revive-new-silk-road-to-counter-chinas-
belt-and-road-obor-project-1697632.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
38
Beyond the New Silk Road, the Trump administration need not reinvent the wheel and
develop new connectivity projects — particularly given that Belt and Road leaves little
space for new U.S.-supported projects. Instead, Washington should throw its support
behind existing, and particularly India-led, endeavors.
One of the most important is the Chabahar project, an Afghanistan-India-Iran collaboration
that entails India’s development of the Chabahar port in southern Iran and infrastructure
projects up into Afghanistan. This project’s advantages go beyond connectivity. If
completed, it would bring major benefits to Afghanistan and India, arguably Washington’s
two closest friends in South Asia. Afghanistan would enjoy greater access to markets in the
Middle East and beyond. India would gain access to new routes to Afghanistan and the vast
gas riches of Central Asia — routes it cannot use closer to home because Islamabad denies
it transit trade rights. To its credit, Washington has exempted India’s Chabahar activities
from the Iran sanctions regime — a big win for New Delhi, given the Trump
administration’s unrelenting hostility toward Iran. To be sure, Washington’s toxic relations
with Tehran preclude American financial support to Chabahar. But the decision to allow
India to push forward on this Iran-focused project highlights Washington’s willingness to
support connectivity projects even if they involve American rivals.
Another example is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the Pakistan component of the
Belt and Road Initiative. While Washington has expressed its concerns about Belt and
Road, it hasn’t pressured Pakistan to rein in this economic corridor. Moreover, several U.S.
private companies, including General Electric, have provided assistance to these projects.73
There are also initiatives worthy of U.S. support that involve nations friendlier to
Washington. These include the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and
Economic Cooperation, which comprises Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri
Lanka, and Thailand. Prime Minister Modi signaled the importance he accords to this
initiative by inviting the leaders of its seven member states to his second inauguration. It
73 “GE Equips New 1,320 MW CPHGC Power Plan to Help Pakistan Meet Growing Energy Needs,” GE
Newsroom, March 16, 2017, https://www.genewsroom.com/press-releases/ge-equips-new-1320-mw-cphgc-
power-plant-help-pakistan-meet-growing-energy-needs.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
39
involves cooperation in a number of areas germane to the Indo-Pacific strategy — from
trade and technology to energy and counter-terrorism. To increase its engagement with this
initiative, Washington should consider seeking an observer status in the organization, a
status it already enjoys in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.
Additionally, several newly emerging South Asian connectivity projects could benefit from
U.S. assistance. These include a plan for India and Bangladesh to cooperate on the
provision of electricity and Internet bandwidth, and a potential electricity-sharing
arrangement between Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal.74
Tackling Terror
In South Asia, Islamist terrorism is no longer a largely Afghanistan- and Pakistan-focused
phenomenon, as it was until relatively recently. The emergence of the Islamic State in the
region — the organization formally announced its presence with the establishment of
Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) in 2015 — has led to a new and geographically widening
terrorist threat.
Initially, IS-K mainly operated out of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Today, Afghanistan remains
the nation where it is most present and potent. Initially boasting fighters numbering only in
the hundreds — most of them disaffected former Taliban members — the group has now
expanded its membership in Afghanistan to the thousands, according to U.S. officials.75 IS-
K has survived several years of U.S. and Afghan airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan, home to
the group’s main bastion. Even though IS-K is not widely welcomed within Afghanistan’s
militant milieu — most of the country’s jihadists are aligned with the Islamic State’s al-
74 Md Fazlur Rahman, “Power Import Gets Easier: Bangladesh Can Import Electricity from Nepal, Bhutan
Thru Indian Territory,” Daily Star, Dec. 27, 2018, https://www.thedailystar.net/business/electricity-import-
from-nepal-bhutan-gets-easier-1679245. 75 Gannon, “Islamic State Expands Reach in Afghanistan.”
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
40
Qaeda rival — it has managed to increase its resources and networks thanks to
collaborations with local militant splinter groups.76
And yet, the Islamic State’s South Asian footprint now expands well beyond Afghanistan.
Over the last few years, it has claimed a series of attacks in Bangladesh.77 The Easter Sunday
massacre in Sri Lanka in 2019 revealed, in tragic fashion, the small but dangerous Islamic
State presence in that country. India, a nation where Islamist militancy has generally failed
to catch on, was where some of the Islamic State members linked to the Sri Lanka attacks
had reportedly been based.78 Finally, the island nation of Maldives — known more for its
climate change vulnerability than Islamist terror — is an unlikely source of Islamic State
recruits, with about 200 Maldivians (in a nation of just 400,000) having gone to fight with
the group in the Middle East.79
With the Islamic State on the defensive following the loss of its “caliphate” in the Middle
East, it is searching for ways to demonstrate its continued clout and relevance. Carrying out
more catastrophic attacks across South Asia could help achieve that goal, and particularly
with assistance from all the Islamic State fighters returning home from the Middle East.
These include not just the 200 from Maldives, but also more than 30 from Sri Lanka, 60
from India, and up to 650 from Pakistan.80 The group’s increasing regional spread, coupled
76 Amira Jadoon, “Allied and Lethal: Islamic State Khorasan’s Network and Organizational Capacity in
Afghanistan and Pakistan,” Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, December 2018,
https://ctc.usma.edu/app/uploads/2018/12/Allied-Lethal.pdf. 77 Iftekharul Bashar, “Islamic State Ideology Continues to Resonate in Bangladesh,” Middle East Institute,
Sept. 3, 2019, https://www.mei.edu/publications/islamic-state-ideology-continues-resonate-bangladesh. 78 Devjyot Ghoshal, “Indian Police Raid Islamic State Cell with Links to Sri Lanka Bombing Mastermind,”
Reuters, June 12, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-india-security/indian-police-raid-islamic-state-cell-
with-links-to-sri-lanka-bombing-mastermind-idUKKCN1TD1UY. 79 “Foreign Fighters: An Updated Assessment of the Flow of Foreign Fighters into Syria and Iraq,” Soufan
Group, December 2015, http://www.soufangroup.com/foreign-fighters/. 80 Richard Barrett, “Beyond the Caliphate: Foreign Fighters and the Threat of Returnees,” Soufan Center,
October 2017, https://thesoufancenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Beyond-the-Caliphate-Foreign-
Fighters-and-the-Threat-of-Returnees-TSC-Report-October-2017.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
41
with Trump’s strong interest in tackling terror worldwide, gives the administration a
compelling incentive to make counter-terrorism a centerpiece of a South Asia regional
engagement strategy. Given the goals of the Indo-Pacific strategy, U.S. support for South
Asian counter-terrorism measures should ideally be oriented around maritime security in
order to help the navies of the littoral states of the eastern Indian Ocean Region and
western Indo-Pacific — Bangladesh, India, Maldives, and Sri Lanka — fortify their coastal
areas against the threat of sea-based Islamic State attacks. After all, terrorism — not just
piracy or the aggressive actions of China — poses a threat to the “free, open, and inclusive”
principles that Washington, along with key partners like India and Japan, so often tout
when discussing their vision of the Indo-Pacific region.
Conclusion
In the immediate term, Washington should focus its South Asia policy around two key
priorities: negotiating an end to the war in Afghanistan, and further strengthening its
relationship with India, Washington’s most critical partner in South Asia. However, beyond
these short-term, narrowly defined goals, U.S. officials should focus on applying a wider
lens to a region that Washington envisions playing a major role in its Indo-Pacific strategy.
Scaling up support to, and cooperation with, more South Asian states — specifically when it
comes to connectivity and counter-terrorism — can help Washington advance its Indo-
Pacific strategy. And it can help push back, even if only modestly, against America’s Chinese
rival in a South Asia region where Beijing is much more present and popular than
Washington.
Michael Kugelman is deputy director for the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center
and is also the center’s senior associate for South Asia. He is responsible for research,
programming, and publications on South Asia. His specialty areas include Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and U.S. relations with each. His recent projects have focused
on India’s foreign policy, U.S.-Pakistan relations, India-Pakistan relations, the war in
Afghanistan, trans-boundary water agreements in South Asia, and U.S. policy in South Asia.
Mr. Kugelman is a regular contributor to publications that include Foreign Policy and Foreign
Affairs. He is on Twitter @michaelkugelman.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
42
5. Climbing the Escalation Ladder: India and the Balakot Crisis By Rohan Mukherjee
On February 14 of this year, a suicide bomber drove a car loaded with explosives into a
convoy of paramilitary personnel in the Pulwama district of the Indian state of Jammu and
Kashmir.81 The attack left 44 soldiers dead and around 70 injured.82 Jaish-e-Mohammad, a
terrorist group operating out of Pakistan with the support of the Pakistani military and
intelligence establishment, claimed responsibility for the attack. Founded in 2000, Jaish is
responsible for some of the deadliest terrorist attacks in Kashmir and elsewhere in India,
including attacks on Jammu and Kashmir’s legislative assembly and the Indian national
parliament in 2001, and, more recently, attacks on an airbase in Pathankot and an army base
in Uri in 2016.
On Feb. 26, 2019, the Indian Air Force launched a retaliatory strike on a location identified
as a Jaish training complex near the town of Balakot in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province
of Pakistan. While India had restricted previous reprisals to parts of Pakistani Kashmir, i.e.,
to disputed territories, this airstrike was the first to take place on Pakistani soil since the
India-Pakistan War of 1971. The following day, Pakistan retaliated with an airstrike in Indian
Kashmir that led to an air battle and the downing of an Indian Air Force MiG-21 on the
Pakistani side of the Line of Control, the de facto border between the two countries in
Kashmir. The government of Pakistan released the pilot of the downed aircraft two days
later, thus officially beginning the process of defusing the crisis.
This sequence of events is remarkable for a number of reasons, two of which matter from a
strategic perspective. First, in launching airstrikes on Pakistani soil, India deviated from its
81 As of Aug. 9, 2019, Jammu and Kashmir is no longer a state of the Indian Union. The Parliament of India
passed a law dissolving the state and dividing the region into two federally administered territories: Jammu
and Kashmir, and Ladakh. 82 Shaswati Das, “44 CRPF jawans killed, 70 injured in Pulwama terror attack in J&K,” LiveMint, Feb. 18, 2019,
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pulwama-terror-attack-death-toll-rises-to-40-jem-claims-
responsibility-1550143395449.html..
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
43
traditional restraint in the face of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, visible most prominently
in its lack of a military response to the 2008 Mumbai attack by another Pakistan-backed
group, Lashkar-e-Taiba, that claimed 164 lives.83 Second, in seeking to defuse tensions
following the air battle over Kashmir by releasing the Indian pilot, Pakistan deviated from
its traditional policy of publicly manipulating the risk of nuclear confrontation to induce
Indian restraint and external great power involvement, typically by the United States. As
one analyst, drawing an analogy to the Cuban Missile Crisis, put it, “Pakistan may have just
blinked.”84
How significant are these departures and what are their strategic implications? Pakistan’s
efforts at de-escalation are more easily explained than India’s actions. As Ashley Tellis
argues, over the years successive U.S. presidents have grown increasingly worried that
Islamabad’s inability (and unwillingness) to dismantle the terrorist groups operating from
its soil threatens not just India but also American interests in Afghanistan. Washington’s
disaffection culminated in the Trump administration’s unprecedented response in the
aftermath of the Pulwama attack, which was to publicly support India’s right to self-defense
while intensely pressuring Pakistan behind the scenes to de-escalate.85 China, consistent
with its stance toward such crises over the last two decades, and additionally concerned
about the fate of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, maintained its distance and urged
both sides to exercise restraint.86 Even compared to the 1999 Kargil War, when Pakistan
83 “Mumbai Terror Attacks Fast Facts,” CNN, July 29, 2019,
https://www.cnn.com/2013/09/18/world/asia/mumbai-terror-attacks/index.html. 84 Zack Brown, “Did Pakistan Just Blink?” National Interest, Feb. 28, 2019,
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/did-pakistan-just-blink-45792. 85 Ashley J. Tellis, “A Smoldering Volcano: Pakistan and Terrorism after Balakot,” Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, March 14, 2019, https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/03/14/smoldering-volcano-pakistan-
and-terrorism-after-balakot-pub-78593. 86 Ananth Krishnan, “For China, 62 Billion Reasons to Be Cautious in India-Pakistan Crisis,” South China
Morning Post, March 2, 2019, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2188313/china-62-billion-
reasons-be-cautious-india-pakistan-crisis.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
44
was shocked by the combination of U.S. pressure and Chinese aloofness, Islamabad’s
diplomatic options after Pulwama were severely limited.87
In contrast to Pakistan, India’s behavior in the crisis requires some unpacking in order to
draw out its strategic implications. Seen as an isolated incident, the Balakot strike might
seem revolutionary. In the context of the India-Pakistan strategic dynamic over the last two
decades, however, it appears more evolutionary.
The India-Pakistan Strategic Dynamic
Although India enjoys unambiguous conventional military superiority over Pakistan, this
superiority is diminished by tactical considerations on the India-Pakistan border, as well as
by India’s need to defend against a potential attack from China.88 Moreover, since the
nuclearization of the subcontinent in the late 1980s, Pakistan has repeatedly threatened the
deployment of nuclear weapons in crises with India as part of its “catalytic” nuclear
posture, designed both to deter a major conventional attack by India and to draw the
United States and other great powers into any military crisis on the subcontinent.89 This
catalytic posture has allowed Pakistan to sponsor the insurgency in Indian Kashmir and
terrorism in India more broadly with virtual impunity.
India’s tradition of restraint toward Pakistan is therefore not the result of a cultural
predisposition, as some scholars have claimed,90 but rather a function of environmental
87 See Ashley J. Tellis, C. Christine Fair, and Jamison Jo Medby, “Limited Conflicts Under the Nuclear
Umbrella: Indian and Pakistani Lessons from the Kargil Crisis,” RAND Monograph Report, 2001,
https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1450.html. 88 Walter C. Ladwig III, “Indian Military Modernization and Conventional Deterrence in South Asia,” Journal
of Strategic Studies 38, no. 5 (2015): 729–72, https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2015.1014473. 89 Vipin Narang, “Posturing for Peace? Pakistan's Nuclear Postures and South Asian Stability,” International
Security 34, no. 3 (Winter 2010): 38–78, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec.2010.34.3.38. 90 Stephen P. Cohen and Sunil Dasgupta, Arming without Aiming: India's Military Modernization
(Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 2010), 147.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
45
and geopolitical factors, coupled with Pakistan’s manipulation of the risk of nuclear war.91
When this risk has seemed to ebb, Indian leaders have sought ways to punish Pakistan for
its sponsorship of cross-border terrorism. As S. Paul Kapur notes, in the aftermath of the
Kargil War, when Pakistan failed to make good on its nuclear threats, Indian civilian and
military leaders began to realize that restraint was not their only option.92 The terrorist
attack on the Indian parliament in 2001 thus led to a massive military mobilization on the
border with Pakistan. Lessons learned from the incredibly slow pace of this mobilization led
to further reforms in Indian military thought and practice, resulting in a limited war
doctrine known as “Cold Start,” which envisioned rapid mobilization to capture and hold
small amounts of Pakistani territory in retaliation for a major terrorist attack.93 Meanwhile,
India developed an explicit nuclear doctrine resting on three pillars: credible minimum
deterrence, no first use, and massive retaliation. Thus, in the event of a major terrorist
attack, Cold Start would allow a limited land grab as retaliation, while India’s nuclear
doctrine would deter Pakistan from escalating to the nuclear level. Unfortunately, when the
time came to deploy the doctrine after the 2008 Mumbai attack, “India froze … and Pakistan
took note.”94
Pakistan’s own strategy evolved in response to India’s limited war doctrine. In 2011,
Islamabad unveiled a solid-fueled, short-range ballistic missile, the Nasr, capable of
carrying a tactical nuclear warhead and deployed explicitly to counter Indian armored
thrusts into Pakistani territory.95 This development creates a credibility problem for India’s
nuclear strategy — namely, if Pakistan were to attack Indian troops on Pakistani soil with a
tactical nuclear weapon, would India actually retaliate by targeting Pakistani cities? Similar
91 For a pre-nuclear version of this argument, see Rudra Chaudhuri, “Indian ‘Strategic Restraint’ Revisited:
The Case of the 1965 India-Pakistan War,” India Review 17, no. 1 (2018): 55–75,
https://doi.org/10.1080/14736489.2018.1415277. 92 S. Paul Kapur, “India and Pakistan's Unstable Peace: Why Nuclear South Asia Is Not like Cold War Europe,”
International Security 30, no. 2 (Fall 2005): 147, https://www.jstor.org/stable/4137597. 93 Walter C. Ladwig III, “A Cold Start for Hot Wars? The Indian Army's New Limited War Doctrine,”
International Security 32, no. 3 (Winter 2007/2008): 158–90, https://www.jstor.org/stable/30130521. 94 Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang, “India's Counterforce Temptations: Strategic Dilemmas, Doctrine, and
Capabilities,” International Security 43, no. 3 (Winter 2018/19): 14, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00340. 95 Ankit Panda, “Pakistan Conducts Test of Nuclear-Capable Nasr Missile,” The Diplomat, Jan. 26, 2019,
https://thediplomat.com/2019/01/pakistan-conducts-test-of-nuclear-capable-nasr-missile/.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
46
to the logic underlying the presumption of Pakistani non-escalation in response to a limited
land grab by India, a strategic nuclear response to a tactical battlefield outcome appears
disproportionate and not worth the material and reputational costs.
Consequently, in this post-Nasr world, India has two options in the nuclear domain. The
first is to develop tactical nuclear weapons of its own, thus creating an appropriately
calibrated response to Pakistan’s use of battlefield nuclear weapons.96 However, India faces
significant resource constraints in developing the required number of tactical weapons and
significant organizational constraints in developing the command and control mechanisms
required to effectively deploy them militarily.97 The latter constraint, which Pakistan does
not face, originates at least in part from India’s history of strong and dysfunctional civilian
control of the military and nuclear weapons development.98 Moreover, an exchange of
tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield may still escalate to the strategic level, allowing
Pakistan to retain the threat of nuclear war that has paralyzed Indian decision-makers in
the past.
Christopher Clary and Vipin Narang highlight India’s second option, which is to shift the
focus of massive retaliation from civilian to military targets.99 It would seem far more
credible for India to threaten to wipe out Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities in response to the
use of battlefield nuclear weapons than to hit Pakistani cities. The problem here is that
complete success in a counterforce attack is virtually impossible, even in the case of a
geographically smaller state such as Pakistan (which has additionally taken steps to
disperse its nuclear arsenal and make it mobile). Moreover, if Pakistan is expecting such a
response to its use of battlefield nuclear weapons, then it has an incentive to conduct a
massive first strike instead. One way for India to address this challenge is to weaken its no-
96 Evan Braden Montgomery and Eric S. Edelman, “Rethinking Stability in South Asia: India, Pakistan, and the
Competition for Escalation Dominance,” Journal of Strategic Studies 38, no. 1-2 (2015): 159–82,
https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2014.901215. 97 Toby Dalton and George Perkovich, “India’s Nuclear Options and Escalation Dominance,” Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, May 19, 2016, https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/05/19/india-s-nuclear-
options-and-escalation-dominance-pub-63609. 98 Anit Mukherjee, The Absent Dialogue: Politicians, Bureaucrats, and the Military in India (New York: Oxford
University Press, 2019). 99 Clary and Narang, “India's Counterforce Temptations,” 7–52.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
47
first-use principle and make room for a preemptive strike on Pakistan. Although Clary and
Narang argue that top Indian decision-makers are flirting with this idea — and India’s
defense minister recently seemed to publicly confirm this argument100 — it still raises the
critical issues of whether Indian leaders can credibly commit to striking first (even with
counterforce targeting), and if they can be completely successful in doing so.
Climbing the Escalation Ladder
India’s nuclear options are, thus, far from ideal, and risk courting even greater strategic
instability than currently exists in South Asia. However, thinking of nuclear responses to
Pakistan’s development of tactical nuclear weapons may be jumping a few steps too far
ahead. Herman Kahn’s classic work on escalation, which details a 44-rung “ladder” of
increasingly escalatory moves that countries in a crisis can undertake to demonstrate
resolve, suggests that there are numerous non-nuclear steps that a country in India’s
position may take before reaching the threshold where nuclear war is thinkable.101 This
threshold is approximately one-fifth of the way up the ladder, whose uppermost rungs
involve a nuclear war targeting civilian population centers. In between are actions grouped
under categories of increasing severity such as intense crises, limited nuclear wars,
exemplary nuclear attacks, and nuclear wars involving military targets. The history of
India-Pakistan crises shows that both countries have consistently stayed below the
threshold where nuclear war becomes thinkable, i.e., before crises become “intense.” Their
repertoire of escalatory tactics — increased shelling on the Line of Control, covert
operations across the Line of Control, diplomatic maneuvering, significant military
mobilization, missile tests as shows of force — falls well within the range of what Kahn calls
“subcrisis maneuvering” and “traditional crises.”
The escalation ladder is neither an ironclad framework nor a blueprint for crisis
management. Rather, it is a heuristic device that can help one think through the options
available to countries and, in particular, gauge escalation and de-escalation behaviors in a
100 Elizabeth Roche, “India’s ‘No First Use Nuclear Policy’ May Change: Rajnath Singh,” LiveMint, Aug. 16,
2019, https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-s-no-first-use-nuclear-policy-may-change-rajnath-singh-
1565946292515.html. 101 Herman Kahn, On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios (New York: Praeger, 1965).
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
48
crisis or over multiple crises. In the India-Pakistan context, it suggests three important
lessons. First, there are numerous escalatory steps available to both countries that have
never been taken. Their words to each other and to external great powers notwithstanding,
both countries’ actions have displayed considerable caution to keep escalation within the
non-nuclear realm. Second, and relatedly, Islamabad’s rhetoric and fearmongering about
nuclear war remains in the realm of cheap talk, as New Delhi discovered during the Kargil
War and during the Balakot episode. While one need not assume this as a rule of thumb, it
does suggest that there is room for India to operate without bringing nuclear war into the
picture.
Third, and most importantly, it is precisely this room to maneuver that the government of
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi exploited for the first time in the Balakot episode. In
Kahn’s framework, the airstrike and ensuing air battle can be categorized as a “dramatic
military confrontation,” or “a direct (‘eyeball to eyeball’) confrontation that appears to be a
stark test of nerves, committal, resolve, or recklessness.”102 What’s important about this
step is that it is the highest rung on Kahn’s ladder before nuclear war becomes thinkable.
Until Balakot, neither India nor Pakistan had gone beyond “harassing acts of violence,” or
illegal acts of violence carried out through clandestine channels. Balakot moved both
countries one rung up the escalation ladder, which is both closer to making nuclear war
possible but also very far from nuclear war itself.
It is in this sense that Balakot is more evolutionary than revolutionary. In finding greater
room for non-nuclear escalation through precision airstrikes that New Delhi was careful to
label as “non-military preemptive action,” India behaved exactly as a nuclear state
demonstrating resolve to a nuclear adversary without courting nuclear war would. The
puzzle is not so much why Modi chose this option but why previous prime ministers did
not. Long before Balakot, various analysts and practitioners had listed precision strikes on
terrorist camps as one of the few viable military options available to India in the event of a
Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attack.103 For example, former Foreign Secretary and National
102 Kahn, On Escalation, 43. 103 George Perkovich and Toby Dalton, Not War, Not Peace: Motivating Pakistan to Prevent Cross-Border
Terrorism (New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2016).
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
49
Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon went on the record as advocating precisely this action
in the aftermath of the 2008 Mumbai attack.104
Menon himself offers a reason why previous Indian leaders may not have considered
airstrikes a viable option. In 2008, the Indian leadership calculated that airstrikes would do
little to diminish the organizational capabilities of terrorist groups in Pakistan, and would
cause the international community to default to their standard response to an India-
Pakistan crisis: “split the blame and credit 50:50 in the name of fairness or even-
handedness.”105 The difference during Balakot was that world opinion — especially U.S.
official opinion — had shifted. In 2016, when Indian special forces carried out a surgical
strike on terrorist launchpads in Pakistani Kashmir in retaliation for a terrorist attack at
Uri, various countries called for restraint but also exhorted Pakistan to curb terrorist
activities originating in territories under its control. By February 2019, two years into the
Trump presidency, the geopolitical space for greater escalatory action against Pakistan had
further increased. The Balakot airstrike thus represents the conjunction of propitious
international circumstances and imaginative coercive diplomacy by the Modi government.
Isolating Pakistan
Aside from military options, much of the policy analysis on India’s approach to Pakistan has
emphasized the value of diplomatically isolating Pakistan or economically squeezing it
through the international Financial Action Task Force. It is worth pausing for a moment to
consider whether isolating Pakistan is possible and desirable. If India’s goal is to somehow
induce Pakistan into giving up cross-border terrorism, the evidence since the late 1980s
suggests that both military and non-military coercive measures have short-term effects at
best. Pakistan’s geopolitical importance to major powers such as the United States, China,
Saudi Arabia, and now even Russia has ensured a steady supply of financial and military
resources that is unlikely to abate in the near future. While world opinion may be
marshalled against Pakistan as an exporter of global jihad, the major powers are unlikely to
104 Shivshankar Menon, “Insider Account: Why India Didn’t Attack Pakistan After 26/11,” Scroll.in, March 13,
2019, https://scroll.in/article/916259/insider-account-why-india-didnt-attack-pakistan-after-26-11. 105 Menon, “Insider Account.”
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
50
push a nuclear weapons state with Islamist domestic political factions and numerous
terrorist groups operating in its territory too far.
Indeed India’s own security interests are unlikely to be served by a Pakistan that has been
economically and diplomatically weakened to the point where the government’s domestic
legitimacy is threatened. As research on partial democracies has shown, these types of
situations are ripe for external conflict, as competing elite groups vie for power through
increasingly nationalist appeals.106 A longstanding and bitter rival next door might serve as
a convenient and tempting target for diversionary conflict in these circumstances. India’s
challenge, therefore is to use economic punishment and diplomatic isolation in specific and
targeted ways — not as a general long-term strategy for dealing with Pakistan, but as short-
term components of coercive crisis diplomacy.
What Happens Next?
Has Balakot created a new normal, one that increases the risks of war — nuclear or
conventional — on the subcontinent? The short answer is no.
Given that India’s airstrikes targeted “non-military” targets, and that numerous
independent reports suggest they failed to hit them,107 the response is unlikely to deter
terrorist groups and their paymasters in Pakistan. Pakistan’s fundamental incentive to rely
on cross-border terrorism as a strategy to keep the Indian military tied down in Kashmir —
both tactically and in terms of the military’s fraught relations with Kashmiri society —
remains unchanged. Although India did move up the escalatory ladder by conducting the
airstrikes, there is limited room for further action without entering the realm of “intense
106 Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, “Democratization and the Danger of War,” International Security
20, no. 1 (Summer 1995): 5–38, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539213; Sara McLaughlin Mitchell and Brandon C.
Prins, “Rivalry and Diversionary Uses of Force,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, no. 6 (2004): 937–61,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/4149801; Jaroslav Tir, “Territorial Diversion: Diversionary Theory of War and
Territorial Conflict,” Journal of Politics 72, no. 2 (April 2010): 413–25,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1017/s0022381609990879. 107 Simon Scarr, Chris Inton, and Han Huang, “An Air Strike and Its Aftermath,” Reuters, March 6, 2019,
https://graphics.reuters.com/INDIA-KASHMIR/010090XM162/index.html.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
51
crises,” to use Kahn’s term. What Balakot has done is add one more item to the menu of
non-nuclear options available to India when contemplating retaliation for a Pakistan-
sponsored terrorist attack. The menu otherwise remains the same and will inform decision-
making when the next major terrorist attack occurs. India and Pakistan are therefore no
closer to nuclear war — an outcome both sides would strenuously wish to avoid — than
they were before Balakot. They do, however, now live in a world where more forms of
escalation short of major conventional war may be possible.
India for its part has crossed a psychological threshold.108 Whereas previous governments
flirted with the idea of escalation or conducted it covertly, the Modi government, in its first
term, publicly demonstrated greater resolve than its predecessors on at least three
important occasions: the surgical strikes of 2016, the military standoff against China at
Doklam in 2017, and at Balakot in 2019. In each case, the Indian military acted with
unexpected boldness, taking the adversary by surprise and courting risk in a controlled
manner. The evidence is mounting that Modi’s approach, at least in this realm of security
policy, has overturned long-held Indian beliefs about the prudence of restraint and not
pushing the limits of competitive risk-taking. The importance of Modi, and by corollary
Trump’s policy toward Pakistan, also highlights the somewhat contingent set of
circumstances that permitted the Balakot strikes. Given that the basic terms of the strategic
interaction between India and Pakistan are unchanged, a different set of circumstances
involving, for example, a less adventurous Indian prime minister and/or warmer relations
between the United States and Pakistan would likely dampen any Indian desire to move up
the escalation ladder in a future crisis.
Lessons from Balakot
Ultimately, any response to a future terrorist attack sponsored by Pakistan on Indian soil
will have to include the careful weighing of the costs and benefits of coercion. In this regard,
the actual circumstances of the Balakot strike offer important lessons for India. The strike
did little to alter Pakistan’s fundamental strategic calculus about the utility of cross-border
terrorism. While it succeeded in demonstrating Indian resolve, India was unable to
108 Tellis, “A Smoldering Volcano.”
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
52
dominate the escalation ladder at this level, as Pakistan launched its own airstrikes on
“non-military targets” the very next day. India’s execution of the entire confrontation left
much to be desired: Not only did the Indian Air Force lose an aircraft and have a pilot taken
prisoner, it also inadvertently shot down a helicopter of its own in the midst of the air
battle, killing six personnel and a civilian.109 After the airstrikes, Pakistan sought to inflict
costs on India by closing down its airspace, an act that cost airlines around the world
millions of dollars and hit India’s national carrier, Air India, especially hard.110
Set against these costs, the airstrike had one major upside, which was to give Modi and the
Bharatiya Janata Party a boost in the run-up to India’s national elections that began six
weeks after the crisis.111 It is unlikely that the airstrike was decisive in the election, and it is
certainly not logically tenable that Modi ordered the strike with electoral gain in mind (it
could have easily backfired). Yet, the political success of the decision opens up the
domestic space necessary for Modi, or a future prime minister, to make a similar decision in
a crisis. Pakistan, for its part, also enjoyed a domestic political win with the capture of an
Indian pilot and the conciliatory move of returning him to India.
In this sense, Balakot followed in the path of the 2016 surgical strike — in both cases, the
two governments had opposite accounts of events and yet were able to use the
confrontation to either save face or increase domestic political support. This might be the
closest approximation to a new normal in India-Pakistan relations, a change in what Kahn
called the “agreed battle” or ongoing conflict between the two countries. Balakot certainly
represents a change in the degree to which India is willing to escalate a crisis with Pakistan,
but it does not signal a deeper shift in the South Asian strategic environment.
109 Manjeet Singh Negi, “Indian Air Force Probe Finds Friendly Fire Caused February 27 Budgam Chopper
Crash, 5 Officers in Dock,” India Today, Aug. 23, 2019, https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/indian-air-force-
budgam-chopper-crash-friendly-fire-officers-guilty-1590764-2019-08-23. 110 “Air India Loses Rs 300 Crore in 2 Months Due to Pakistan's Airspace Restrictions,” Business Today, April
29, 2019, https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/aviation/air-india-loses-rs-300-crore-in-2-months-due-to-
pakistan-airspace-restrictions/story/341498.html. 111 Tamanna Inamdar, “Six Charts Explain How Balakot Strikes Helped Boost Modi’s Popularity,” Bloomberg
Quint, March 12, 2019, https://www.bloombergquint.com/elections/six-charts-explain-how-balakot-strikes-
helped-boost-modis-popularity.
Texas National Security Review
Policy Roundtable: The Future of South Asia https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable-the-future-of-south-asia
53
Rohan Mukherjee is an assistant professor of political science at Yale-NUS College,
Singapore.