Policy-opinion responsiveness and performance politics: evidence from

the UK

Will JenningsESRC Research Fellow

University of Manchester

Outline

• Models and measurement of policy-opinion responsiveness.

• Some evidence from the UK:– Macro-Politics: the Queen’s Speech 1960-2001

(Jennings and John)– Meso-Politics: the UK asylum system 1994-2007

(Jennings)– Performance-Politics: party support and issue

competence 1971-1997 (Green and Jennings)• Reflections.

Government by the people?

“I assume that a key characteristic of a democracy is the continuing

responsiveness of the government to the preferences of its citizens, considered as

political equals.” (Robert Dahl, 1971)

The policy-opinion link

• Representation (congruence approach)Policy = opinion + elections

• Responsiveness (dynamic approach)Change in policy = change in opinion

• Thermostatic (public responsiveness)Change in opinion = change in policy

Policy representation

• Representation of public opinion by the policy system (i.e. policies represent the preferences of the general public).

• Tested through policy consistency (e.g. Monroe 1998), covariation (e.g. Page and Shapiro 1983), congruence (e.g. Stimson et al. 1995).

Dynamic representation

• Policy is a function of public preferences, either directly through politicians' response to changes in public opinion, or through elections that result in changes in partisan control of the legislature.

• Implies a gradual, continuous equilibration of policy and public opinion (e.g. Stimson et al 1995; Wlezien 1995; Soroka and Wlezien 2005).

The Public Thermostat

“The representation of public opinion presupposes that the public actually notices

and responds to what policy makers do. Without such responsiveness, policy makers would have little incentive to represent what

the public wants in policy – there would be no real benefit for doing so, and there would be

no real cost for not doing so.” (Soroka and Wlezien 2005)

Evidence 1: The Queen’s Speech

• The UK Policy Agendas Project: policy content coding system, 19 major topics, 225 sub-topics.

• Text of the Queen’s Speech, 1960-2001, blind-coded at the ‘quasi-sentence’ level.

• Gallup’s survey question about the “most important problem” facing the country.

Table 1. The Policy Agendas Coding System1. Macroeconomics 13. Social Welfare

2. Civil Rights, Minorities (*Immigration) & Civil Liberties

14. Community Development & Housing Issues

3. Health 15. Banking, Finance & Domestic Commerce

4. Agriculture 16. Defence

5. Labour & Employment* 17. Space, Science, Technology & Communications

6. Education 18. Foreign Trade

7. Environment 19. International Affairs & Foreign Aid

8. Energy 20. Government Operations

10. Transportation 21. Public Lands & Water Management (Territorial Issues)

12. Law, Crime, and Family Issues

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.1

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Mos

t Im

port

ant P

robl

em

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

Queen's Speech

Queen's Speech (Law & Order)

MIP (Law & Order)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Mos

t Im

port

ant P

robl

em

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Queen's Speech

Queen's Speech (Econ) MIP

(Econ)

Error-correction model

ΔPOLICYt = α0* + α*

1POLICYt-1 + β0*ΔOPINIONt

+ β*1OPINIONt-1 + PARTYt + εt

Lag of policy

Short-run effect of public opinion

Long-run effect of public opinion

Difference in policy between

political parties

Short-run change in policy

Results

• Policy-opinion responsiveness is found to be significant for: macroeconomic issues, education, health, and law and order.

• Note that these are policy topics with the highest average level of public attention.

• There is also a partisan difference in the average level of policy-making attention (i.e. difference between Con and Lab).

Evidence 2: The UK asylum system

• Home Office data on the rate of decision-processing and the number of applications for asylum, 1994-2007.

• Ipsos-MORI data on public concern about the ‘most important issue facing Britain today’.

• Vector error-correction models of quarterly data. Significant relationship for the level of asylum applications and public opinion.

-1.25

-0.75

-0.25

0.25

0.75

1.25

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Ap

plic

atio

ns

for

Asy

lum

-1.25

-0.75

-0.25

0.25

0.75

1.25 Preferen

ce for "M

ore" o

r "Less"

Evidence 3: performance politics?

• What is the relationship between party support and issue competence?

• Gallup data on voting intentions, 1971 to 1997, and public rating of the “best party to handle the most important problem”.

• Tests for ‘Granger causation’ of party support > issue competence, and issue competence > party support.

Issue Competence and Vote:Incumbents

Con19711974

Lab19741979

Lib19741979

Con19791983

Con19831987

Con 19871992

Con19921997

Vote

Competence

No No Yes * No No No No

Competence

Vote

NoYes

*Yes***

Yes *

Yes**

NoYes***

Issue Competence and Vote: Challengers

Lab19711974

Lib19711974

Con19741979

Lab 19791983

Lib19791983

Lab19831987

Lib19831987

Lab19871992

Lib19871992

Lab19921997

Lib 19921997

Competence

Vote

No No No No No No No No Yes * No No

Vote

Competence

Yes *Yes **

Yes * Yes * Yes * No No No No NoYes

*

Reflections

• There is evidence of a policy-opinion link at the macro level in British politics. This is not comprehensive, however.

• There is also evidence of responsiveness from specific policy domains.

• Last, public perceptions about performance matter. In other words, there is – statistically at least – a transmission mechanism between issue competence and support of incumbents.