Policy Analysis for the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia: A Bayesian Network Model Approach
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Transcript of Policy Analysis for the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia: A Bayesian Network Model Approach
![Page 1: Policy Analysis for the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia: A Bayesian Network Model Approach](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022051514/5482f278b4af9f780d8b4925/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Policy Analysis
CambodiaBayesiaNetworks
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<basics>
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who?
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Mario Guajardo
Yai Oladokun Laleye
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not really…
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based on: Policy Analysis for the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia: A
Bayesian Network Model Approach
Authors: Olli Varis & Marko Keskinen
Helsinki University of Technology
(aka Findland’s MIT)
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where?
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what?
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Tonlé Sap lake
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lake = golden egg hen
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why?
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lake fishing = over 50% of GDP
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largest freshwater lake
in South East Asia
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lake water for 55 million
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lake wetlands = rice
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goal
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lake waters should be used to
provide economic well-being to
the people, without
compromising social equity and
environmental sustainability
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(balance)
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solution
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policy
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challenge
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finding
a balanced policy
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a balanced policy to
maximize win-win between
competing stakeholders
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social
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social
economic
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social
economic
environmental
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<model>
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approach
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bayesian network
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why?
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complex interconnections
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how?
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model architecture
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scenarios
impact
tendencieslink
matrix
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under the hood
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environment
society
sector policies
natural resources
economy
goals
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environmentfloods
droughts
toxic spillage
oil spillage
soil degradation
biodiversity decline
suspended soil
sedimentation
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environment
society
sector policies
natural resources
economy
goals
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societyfood security
human development
empowerment
gender equity
social cohesion
formal governance
rural push
urban pull
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environment
society
sector policies
natural resources
economy
goals
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environment
society
sector policies
natural
resources
economy
goals
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environment
society
sector policies
natural resources
economy
goals
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environment
society
sector policies
natural resources
economy
goals
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<experiments>
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four scenarios
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favors economic growth
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favors
environmental sustainability
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favors poverty reduction
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integrated scenario
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<results>
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favors economic growth
but with high degree
of uncertainty
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favors environmental
sustainability
but ignores villages
and their development
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favors social impact
gives fairly good results
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integrated scenario
gave best results
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<conclusion>
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many scenarios created
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gave insight to policy makers
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model found balanced policy
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it is now up to Cambodia to implement it…