Policies toward sustainable regional development: Integrated modelling of economy, mobility and air...

Policies toward sustainable Policies toward sustainable regional development:regional development:

Integrated modelling of economy, mobility and air pollutionIntegrated modelling of economy, mobility and air pollution

Paul Safonov, Vincent Favrel, and Walter Hecq

Centre for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE)Centre for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE)Université Libre de Bruxelles - Free University of Brussels (ULB)Université Libre de Bruxelles - Free University of Brussels (ULB)

Policies toward sustainable Policies toward sustainable regional development:regional development:

Integrated modelling of economy, mobility and air pollutionIntegrated modelling of economy, mobility and air pollution

Paul Safonov, Vincent Favrel, and Walter Hecq

Centre for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE)Centre for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE)Université Libre de Bruxelles - Free University of Brussels (ULB)Université Libre de Bruxelles - Free University of Brussels (ULB)

Center for Economic and Social Studies on the Environment (CEESE), Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB)

PlanPlanPlanPlan

Four Stage Transport ModelTRIPS - Professional Transport Planning ToolA Case Study: Aim of the ProjectSystem of ModelsData Sources and AvailabilitySoftware SolutionsScenarios and SimulationsPolicy Recommendations


Four-stage transport modelFour-stage transport modelFour-stage transport modelFour-stage transport model

Trip generationTrip generationTrip DistributionTrip DistributionModal ChoiceModal ChoiceAssignmentAssignment


TRIPS software modulesTRIPS software modulesTRIPS software modulesTRIPS software modules

TRIPS is a set of inter-related modules as listed below. These contain the ‘building blocks’ of a model, enabling the user to access the features and facilities

to build models which meet individual requirements. Highway Assessment Public Transport Assignment Demand Modeling Matrix Estimation TRIPS Graphics TRIPS Manager - Graphical Project Management Tool Data Processing TRIPS and Showman Plus


A Case Study: Aim of the ProjectA Case Study: Aim of the ProjectA Case Study: Aim of the ProjectA Case Study: Aim of the Project

Analysis of the environmental impacts of mobility in the Brussels-Capital regionBrussels-Capital region, induced by major regional policy options:

Environmental impacts of mobility: emissions of air pollutants, which have effect at local level (CO, PM), regional level (NOX, VOC, SO2), and global level - the contribution of the Brussels region to greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) emissions

Policy options: offices' and housing relocation, transportation network development, modal shift, [parking, pricing/taxation, and other urban policies;]

Tool: System of Socio-Economic/Mobility/Emissions models


System of ModelsSystem of ModelsSystem of ModelsSystem of Models

Population and Employment dynamics spatial forecasts (per sector of activity) in Brussels

Main Economic sectors development model Economic scenarios are used to estimate the demand in buildings

(including offices) and workers in each economic sector.

Office stock dynamics (supply): spatial econometric models

Mobility model: O/D matrices generation and static assignment for public and private transport.

Air pollution: “vehicles-emissions” & "non renewable fuel consumption" models (new European/Belgian regulations on vehicles)


Structure of the Integrated ModelStructure of the Integrated ModelStructure of the Integrated ModelStructure of the Integrated Model

E m iss ion s M od e l:G H G / L o ca l p o llu ta n ts

A ss ig n m en t M od e l:m od a l ch o ice

(TR IP S )

M ob ility S cen arios(O /D m atrices )

(R e) L oca tiono f h ou sh o ld s

P op u la tion d yn am ics

O ffice S tockd yn am ics

(R e) L oca tiono f o ffices

E m p loym en t d yn am ics

Emissions/ Immissions Model

Transport Policy• Transport network development• Fleet Composition• Taxation and Pricing• Parking, etc


Economic and demographic forecastsEconomic and demographic forecastsEconomic and demographic forecastsEconomic and demographic forecasts

Macro-economic development indicators by main sectors of activities and respective demand for labor resources;

General birth rate and population dynamics;

Main trends and shifts in population and labor resources structure (e.g. from workers to executives, from permanent residents to foreigners and migrants, from town to periphery, growth of the share of middle-age (working) population, etc.);

Spatial distribution of the population in the region, according to different assumptions on the urban policy and economic scenarios.


Office relocation modelingOffice relocation modelingOffice relocation modelingOffice relocation modeling

Tendencies in Brussels office stock dynamics

Parking policy

Early consideration of environmental implications in the

urban planning process

Increasing urban densities around points of high

accessibility

Integrating land use and transport planning encouraging

mixed land use schemes


Software SolutionsSoftware SolutionsSoftware SolutionsSoftware Solutions

General Interface for the System of Models: Visual-Basic, TRIPS Command Language (TCL)Visual-Basic, TRIPS Command Language (TCL)

Demographic forecasts, Economic activities model: TCL, Excel, STATISTICATCL, Excel, STATISTICA

Urban development, O/D matrices generation: TRIPS Demand Modelling ModuleTRIPS Demand Modelling Module

Assignment: TRIPS TRIPS Highway Assessment and Highway Assessment and Public Transport Assessment ModulesPublic Transport Assessment Modules

Emissions: Visual-Basic, ExcelVisual-Basic, Excel


Data Sources and AvailabilityData Sources and AvailabilityData Sources and AvailabilityData Sources and Availability

National Statistical Institute (INS/NIS) Administration of the Brussels-Capital Region:

Brussels Office Survey (Jones Lang Wootton reports) Review of Office Property Regional Mobility Plan (Plan “IRIS”) Regional Plan of Land Use (P.R.A.S.) Regional Development Plan (P.R.D.)

Sustainable Mobility Information System (SMIS) A Meta-data base (CEESE-ULB)


Legend:

Number of district (1987)

Brussels-Europe area: districts 20-22, 43-45, 47

"Midi" (south central) area: districts 11, 12, 29

"Nord" (north central) area: districts 17, 18, 39

"Pentagone" (central) area: districts 1-9

Ring road

Administrative border of the the Brussels-Capital Region

Area under studyArea under studyArea under studyArea under study

BCR


Share of Brussels in the National EconomyShare of Brussels in the National Economy

Source: Duchâteau (1998), and own calculations, based on data base of Banque Nationale ,1999

1980 1990 1997

Share of Brussels in the GrossNational Product

15.5% 13.4% 12.6%

Part of Brussels in the globalamount of taxable revenue ofindividuals of the country

11.6% 9.8% 9.2%


Classification of sectors of activities (NACE 1)Classification of sectors of activities (NACE 1)Classification of sectors of activities (NACE 1)Classification of sectors of activities (NACE 1)

0. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery1. Energy and Water2. Extraction and Transformation of minerals, Chemical Industry3. Metallurgy, Manufacturing of Precise Mechanics4. Other Manufacturing Industries 5. Construction and Civil Engineering,6. Commerce, Restaurants, Accommodation, Reparations7. Transport and Communications8. Credit Institutions, Insurance, Trade9. Other services

Source: Kumps, A.-M., Taymans, M (1995) Développment du secteur tertiaire de la Région de Bruxelles-Capitale, N 27, IRIS Editions, BRES, Bruxelles.


Dynamics of mobility in the Brussels-Capital Region Dynamics of mobility in the Brussels-Capital Region 1985-19981985-1998

Dynamics of mobility in the Brussels-Capital Region Dynamics of mobility in the Brussels-Capital Region 1985-19981985-1998

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Year

Tra

ffic

in

de

x (

ba

se

10

0 i

n 1

98

5)

Motorway Regional network Local network Total

Calculated from: Recenment de la Circulation, Ministere des Communications et del'infrastructure, 1998 .


Composition of the Belgian private vehicle fleet in Composition of the Belgian private vehicle fleet in 19911991

Vehicles categories Number of cars, 1991 Share (%)

Petrol Engines 2,797,526 (71.57)

< 1.4 l 1,405,917 (35.97)1.4-2.0 l 1,186,085 (30.34)>2.0 l 205,524 (5.26)

Diesel Engines 1,089,055 (27.86)

< 2 l 795,512 (20.35)> 2 l 293,543 (7.51)

LPG Engines 22,484 (0.58)

Conventional [<1990] 20,085 (0.51)91/441/EEC [1991-1996] 2,399 (0.06)94/12/ECE [>1997] 0 (0.00)

Total fleetCalculation based on FIGAZ (1996).

3,909,065 (100.00)


255 zones

2,545 nodes

8,366 links

Road Network in Road Network in the Brussels Areathe Brussels AreaRoad Network in Road Network in the Brussels Areathe Brussels Area


Arts Loi


Origin-Destination Matrix and Traffic AssignmentOrigin-Destination Matrix and Traffic AssignmentMorning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)


1991 : 1,9 mln cars 1996: 2,15 mln cars (+11%) 3 mln veh*km 3,6 mln veh*km (+20%)


Emission CalculationEmission CalculationEmission CalculationEmission Calculation

,,, col dihotii ETETET

,)()( ,,,,,,,, j k j k

col dkjkcol djihotkjkhotjii VMSEFVMSEFET

w h e r e :i p o l l u t a n t i n d e x ;j v e h i c l e c a t e g o r y i n d e x ;k l i n k i n d e x ;E T i e m i s s i o n o f p o l l u t a n t i d u e t o r o a d t r a f f i c ;

E T i , h o t e m i s s i o n o f p o l l u t a n t i d u e t o r o a d t r a f f i c w i t h h o t e n g i n e s ;E T i , c o l d e m i s s i o n o f p o l l u t a n t i d u e t o r o a d t r a f f i c w h i t c o l d e n g i n e s ;E F i , j , h o t e m i s s i o n f a c t o r o f p o l l u t a n t i f o r v e h i c l e c a t e g o r y j d r i v e n w i t h h o t

e n g i n e s ;E F i , j , c o l d e m i s s i o n f a c t o r o f p o l l u t a n t i f o r v e h i c l e c a t e g o r y j d r i v e n w i t h c o l d

e n g i n e s ;S k a v e r a g e s p e e d o n t h e l i n k k ;V M j , k , h o t v e h i c l e m i l e a g e f o r v e h i c l e c a t e g o r y j d r i v e n o n l i n k k w i t h h o t e n g i n e s ;V M j , k , c o l d v e h i c l e m i l e a g e f o r v e h i c l e c a t e g o r y j d r i v e n o n l i n k k w i t h c o l d

e n g i n e s .


Emission FunctionsEmission FunctionsEmission FunctionsEmission FunctionsCO

0

20

40

60

80

10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150

Speed

g/k

mHot Emissions

Cold Start Emissions

NOx

0

1

2

3

4

5

10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150

Speed

g/k

m

VOC

0

2

4

6

8

10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150

Speed

g/k

m

CO2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150

Speed

g/k

mSO2

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150

Speed

g/k

m

PM

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150

Speed

g/k

m


Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) EmissionNitrogen Oxides (NOx) EmissionMorning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) EmissionNitrogen Oxides (NOx) EmissionMorning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)

1991: 71 ton 1996: 61 ton (-15%)


Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) EmissionSulphur Dioxide (SO2) EmissionMorning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)

Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) EmissionSulphur Dioxide (SO2) EmissionMorning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)

1991: 4 ton 1996: 4,36 ton (+8%)


Considerations for ScenariosConsiderations for ScenariosConsiderations for ScenariosConsiderations for Scenarios

Mobility tendencies in the Region

Modal Choice Patterns

Developments of the Transportation Network

Dynamics of Vehicle Composition


Congestion Level Congestion Level (Saturation Index = Number of Cars/Link Capacity)(Saturation Index = Number of Cars/Link Capacity)

Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)

Congestion Level Congestion Level (Saturation Index = Number of Cars/Link Capacity)(Saturation Index = Number of Cars/Link Capacity)

Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)

1991 2005




2005: “Business-as-usual” Scenario 2005: “Sust.Transport” Scenario


Carbon Dioxide CO2 Emissions Carbon Dioxide CO2 Emissions Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)

Carbon Dioxide CO2 Emissions Carbon Dioxide CO2 Emissions Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)

2005: “Business-as-usual” Scenario 2005: “Sustainable Transport” Scenario


Methane (CH4) Emissions Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)

Methane (CH4) Emissions Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)



Sulfur Dioxide (S02) Emissions Sulfur Dioxide (S02) Emissions Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)

Sulfur Dioxide (S02) Emissions Sulfur Dioxide (S02) Emissions Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)Morning Peak Hour (7.30-8.30)


Zaventem


Comparative analysis of scenarios: Comparative analysis of scenarios: totals relative dynamics (totals relative dynamics (19911991 = 100%) = 100%)

Comparative analysis of scenarios: Comparative analysis of scenarios: totals relative dynamics (totals relative dynamics (19911991 = 100%) = 100%)

TrafficIntensity

Air Pollutants Emission Fuel Consumption

Year

Veh*km CO2 CH4 NOx VOC CO PM SO2 Petrol Diesel LPG

1991 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

1996 120 116 87 86 85 86 99 109 103 160 57

2005 (S1) 163 179 91 80 68 75 129 94 154 255 470

2005 (S2) 124 117 60 60 40 41 87 69 98 180 346


Policy RecommendationsPolicy RecommendationsPolicy RecommendationsPolicy Recommendations

Development of the mixed land-use schemes, favouring the localisation of offices and residential areas close to the accessibility points;

Improvement of the links in public transports between the city centre and the suburbs (suburban metro/suburban express rail system - RER);

Introduction of the parking control, which would favour the switch from roads to public transport.

Decrease of automobile traffic in residential areas and limitation of the congestion in the city centre by means of traffic-flow control measures;

Improvement of the travel conditions of pedestrians and cyclists. Stimulation of the use of LPG-driven and electric vehicles.

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