Poker Session PA #2PA Leak Busting

Fundamental Principles of Poker Revisited Problem Descriptions and Potential Leaks Table Changing Short Stack vs. Normal & Deep Stack Targeting Aggro and Thinking Players

PA Leak Busting

+EV play◦Plays that yield the greatest value long term

Reciprocity*-- We win every time we:◦Make a +EV play our opponents will not / cannot make◦Make a correct fold our opponents will not / cannot make

Exploiting our skill edge◦ The greater the delta in skill between ourselves and

our opponents the greater our win rate

Fundamental Principles of Poker Revisited

Your winning sessions just aren’t big enough to offset your losing sessions◦You average < 1 Buy-in on winning sessions ◦You average > 1 Buy-in on your losing sessions

You should be averaging +1.5 Buy-ins for your winning sessions◦Winning 3, 4, even 5 Buy-ins per session should be

common and occurring on a weekly basis.

Potential Leaks: Wins vs Losses

The only way to extract money from passive players is to hit our hand

60% of the time, we are NOT going to hit our hand◦When we do, we aren’t going to be as strong as we’d like

Inflating the pot is difficult vs. passive players Their passive play inadvertently minimizes their

mistakes

Targeting bad passive players is profitable, but it will not be enough to give us a +1.5 BI winrate

Potential Leaks: Exclusively Focusing on Passive Players

Table Changing too quickly◦ Time spent at a table is an investment

We learn table and villain tendencies We have an advantage vs all players new to the table We can optimal adjust and exploit the table for max results

Valid reasons for table changing◦ There is no money on the table ◦ There is no easy mark on the table◦Skill level is too high thus table is unprofitable for you◦You spot a more profitable table

Beware the “grass looks greener” lure All tables go through “cycles”. ◦Players will leave, new fish will arrive, just give it time

Potential Leaks: Table Changing

Doubling Up and Table Changing◦ Leaving a profitable table is a serious leak◦Maximizes our time at unprofitable tables while Minimizing

our time at profitable tables

TWO SCENARIOS Table A) We double up within 45 minutes Table B) We lose one buy-in within 90 minutes If we have to play six hours, which table should we play at?

Potential Leaks: Table Changing

Ironically, players have no qualms grinding 6 hours at the same table to get unstuck 2 buy-ins but want to leave after winning a big pot and doubling up. This tendency maximizes our time at unprofitable tables while minimizing our time at profitable tables

Short Stack play limits our ability to win◦ Limits the amount of money we can win◦ Limits the amount of +EV plays in our arsenal◦ 100% links our play to hand strength

We are dealt a very limited # of strong hands We become slaves to the cards and variance

◦ Limits Frequency of hands we can see◦ Limits opportunities to engage with -EV players

Thus, limits the amount of money we win

Potential Leaks: Short Stack vs Normal and Deep Stack Play

Short Stack vs. Normal / Deep StackACTION

Short Stack (40bb)

Normal Stack (100bb)

Deep Stack (250bb)

Raising top 10 hands Yes Yes Yes3 betting top 10 hands No Yes Yes3 betting top 5 hands Yes Yes YesLimping SCs and SGs EP No Yes YesLimping SCs and SGs MP No Yes YesLimping SCs & SGs LP Yes Yes YesPlaying SCs and SGs EP vs 4bb Open No No YesPlaying SCs and SGs MP vs 4bb Open No Yes YesPlaying SCs and SGs LP vs 4bb Open No Yes YesSet mining (limping) Yes Yes YesSet mining (4bb open) No Yes YesSet mining (8bb open) No No YesFloating w intent to steal No Yes YesDouble Barreling No Yes YesTriple Barreling No No YesDenying odds w turn shove in multi-way No Yes YesPot committed in Multi-way pot on turn Yes No NoRaising LP w 5% range plus flop cbet Yes Yes YesRaising LP w 10% range plus flop cbet Yes Yes YesRaising LP w 15% range plus flop cbet No Yes YesRaising LP w 20% range plus flop cbet No No Yes

Players involved in more pots◦More opportunity for profit

Fold Equity comes into play◦Gives us another tool in the toolkit to use to win

Employ Advanced Poker Principles

Targeting Aggro & Thinking Players

All lesser players are fish!!!

What does the Math Say? Integrating all aspects of poker into

a math model is too complicated◦We can look at each line separately ◦Set mining, Drawing, Floating, C-betting + Multi-

Barreling We can then compare Short Stack vs Normal &

Deep Stack theoretical ◦Winrates will be normalized meaning all things being

equal

Conceptualization

ACTIONShort Stack

(40bb)Normal Stack

(100bb)Deep Stack

(250bb)Raising top 10 hands Yes Yes Yes3 betting top 10 hands No Yes Yes3 betting top 5 hands Yes Yes YesLimping SCs and SGs EP No Yes YesLimping SCs and SGs MP No Yes YesLimping SCs & SGs LP Yes Yes YesPlaying SCs and SGs EP vs 4bb Open No No YesPlaying SCs and SGs MP vs 4bb Open No Yes YesPlaying SCs and SGs LP vs 4bb Open No Yes YesSet mining (limping) Yes Yes YesSet mining (4bb open) No Yes YesSet mining (8bb open) No No YesFloating w intent to steal No Yes YesDouble Barreling No Yes YesTriple Barreling No No Yes

No Yes YesPot committed in Multi-way pot on turn Yes No NoRaising LP w 5% range plus flop cbet Yes Yes Yes

Scenario◦Villain raises “X” amount preflop, Hero calls◦Hero will only continue with hand if flops a set◦Villain has an 3% chance of flopping a set

If Hero flops set as well, Hero will lose to set over set◦When Hero flops a set, Hero will stack villain 50% of the

time

Set Mining

Not profitable to set mine under 50bb

100bb should be considered “threshold” for profitability

Set Mining: Demo

$10 Raise Preflop, 50% V stack off

Hero Chip Stack

Not profitable to set mine under 50bb

100bb should be considered “threshold” for profitability

Set Mining: Demo

$21 Raise Preflop, 50% V stack off

Hero Chip Stack

Scenario◦Villain raises “X” preflop, 1 caller, Hero calls◦Hero flops a “generic” draw (merge flush/straight draws)

Hero’s draw will have 20% chance of hitting◦Villain will fire 2/3 pot bets on each street

Caller folds on flop◦ If Hero hits draw on turn or river hero shoves

Villain will call Hero shove 50% of the time 5% of the time, each villain will have a better hand (i.e.

overflush)

Drawing

Drawing

Hero Stack Size

$15 preflop raise, $15 dead money Villain bets 65% of pot on each street Hero folds to river bet if misses Hero shoves river if hits draw Villain stacks off 50% of the time

Open EndedStraight Draw

Drawing

Hero Stack Size

$26 preflop raise, $26 of dead money Villain bets 65% of pot on each street Hero folds to river bet if misses Hero shoves river if hits draw Villain stacks off 50% of the time

Open EndedStraight Draw

Drawing

Hero Stack Size

$15 raise pre, $15 of dead money Villain bets 65% of pot on each street Hero folds to river bet if misses Hero shoves river if hits draw Villain stacks off 50% of the time

Straight Draw+ Flush Draw

Drawing

Hero Stack Size

$26 raise pre, $26 of dead money Villain bets 65% of pot on each street Hero folds to river bet if misses Hero shoves river if hits draw Villain stacks off 50% of the time

Straight Draw+ Flush Draw

Hero is in position vs thinking/aggro player (V)◦ V raises with a top 20% range◦ Hero will call/float with a top 10% range (excluding hands Hero

would 3-bet like AQ+, JJ+) Villain raises X preflop, two callers, Hero calls Villain c-bets, other players folds, Hero calls Villain Turn Action dependant on Hero SPR◦ If Hero SPR > 1 & V hits, V will bet strong (2/3 pot)

Hero will only call with TPGK or better◦ If Hero SPR > 1 & V misses, V will bet weak (1/3 pot)

Hero can then raise or bet and V will fold◦ If Hero SPR < 1 & V misses, Villain will put Hero all-in

Hero will only call with TPGK or better

Floating: Targeting Thinking and Aggro Players

Differences in Short Stack vs Normal / Deep Stack can result in a FACTOR OF TEN difference in EV

Summary Part I