PNC Infratech PNCINF) - ICICI...

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ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research Result Update February 7, 2020 CMP: | 200 Target: | 255 (28%) Target Period: 12-18 months PNC Infratech (PNCINF) BUY Strong execution in quarter… PNC Infratech (PNC) reported a strong Q3FY20 operating performance although higher finance costs led to slightly lower than anticipated PAT. Revenues grew strongly by 67.5% YoY to | 1,218.0 crore in Q3FY20. EBITDA margins at 14.1% were flattish YoY, better than our estimates of 13.5%. PAT was up 62.9% YoY to | 77.2 crore, slightly lower than our estimates on account of higher finance costs due to mobilisation advances. Order book at | 8,696 crore as of Q3FY20 PNC’s order book (OB) was at | 8,696 crore as of Q3FY20, implying order book-to-bill ratio of 1.9x on TTM revenues, giving us comfort on revenue visibility ahead. This does not include Challakere-Hariyur project (BPC: | 1,157.0 crore) and EPC project in Uttar Pradesh under NHDP Phase-VII as appointed dates on these projects are awaited. The company has submitted bids for projects worth | 15,000 crore and has further identified 40 projects to bid for in Q4FY20. With this, it has maintained order inflows guidance of | 5,000-6,000 crore in FY20E. On the execution front, execution in six out of seven HAM projects is in full swing. Appointed date on the Challakere HAM project is expected in Q4FY20, which will boost support execution. With strong execution maintained in 9MFY20, the management has reiterated its revenue growth guidance of 60% in FY20E. Overall, we expect revenues to grow at 38.7% CAGR to | 5,959.5 crore in FY19-21E. Funding of HAM equity to be met through internal accruals PNC has total equity requirement of | 848 crore for HAM projects. Of this, it has already infused | 427 crore as of Q3FY20. The balance | 421 crore would be infused over the next two to three years: | 46 crore in Q4FY20E, | 250 crore in FY21E & balance in FY22E. As of Q3FY20, standalone debt was at | 345 crore. However, with | 435 crore cash on books the company is net cash positive as of Q3FY20. Furthermore, the management expects limited rise in debt to | 390 crore by FY20E end. Additionally, PNC is expected to receive cash inflows of | 300 crore from monetisation of Ghaziabad Aligarh road project by Q1FY21E. Overall, with strong cash inflows from asset monetisation, healthy internal cash accruals and limited increase in debt expected, the company can easily fund its remaining equity requirement. Valuation & Outlook PNC remains our preferred pick in the EPC space given its robust orderbook and with execution starting in six of the seven HAM projects. With strong execution in 9MFY20 and operational performance expected to remain strong, the management has maintained its revenue growth guidance at 60% in FY20E. We expect revenue growth at 38.7% CAGR to | 5,959.5 crore in FY19-21E. Hence, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised SoTP target price of | 255/share. We value its construction business at | 228/share (at 7x FY21E EV/EBITDA implying 12.4x FY21 EPS). Key Financial Summary | crore FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E CAGR FY19-21E Net Sales 1,689.1 1,856.6 3,096.9 5,003.0 5,959.5 38.7% EBITDA 221.0 318.8 457.3 735.4 834.3 35.1% EBITDA Margin (%) 13.1 17.2 14.8 14.7 14.0 PAT 209.7 251.0 304.9 426.8 434.0 19.3% EPS (|) 8.2 9.8 11.9 16.6 16.9 P/E (x) 24.5 20.4 16.8 12.0 11.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 23.7 16.0 11.4 7.3 6.7 RoNW (%) 9.7 13.9 14.4 17.1 15.0 RoCE (%) 13.2 13.7 15.6 28.2 21.7 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Particulars Particular Amount (| crore) Market Capitalization 5,130.8 Total Debt 345.0 Cash 435.0 EV 5,040.8 52 week H/L (|) 219 / 126 Equity capital 51.3 Face value | 2 Key Highlights Core revenues grew 67.5% YoY to | 1,218.0 crore in Q3FY20 The management has maintained revenue guidance upwards to 50- 60% in FY20E Standalone debt stood at | 345 crore in Q3FY20 Maintain BUY with a revised target price of | 255/share Research Analyst Bhupendra Tiwary, CFA [email protected] Harsh Pathak [email protected]

Transcript of PNC Infratech PNCINF) - ICICI...

Page 1: PNC Infratech PNCINF) - ICICI Directcontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_PNCInfra_Q3FY20.pdf · PNC Infratech PNCINF) BUY Strong execution in quarter… PNC Infratech (PNC)

ICIC

I S

ecurit

ies –

Retail E

quit

y R

esearch

Result

Update

February 7, 2020

CMP: | 200 Target: | 255 (28%) Target Period: 12-18 months

PNC Infratech (PNCINF)

BUY

Strong execution in quarter…

PNC Infratech (PNC) reported a strong Q3FY20 operating performance

although higher finance costs led to slightly lower than anticipated PAT.

Revenues grew strongly by 67.5% YoY to | 1,218.0 crore in Q3FY20. EBITDA

margins at 14.1% were flattish YoY, better than our estimates of 13.5%. PAT

was up 62.9% YoY to | 77.2 crore, slightly lower than our estimates on

account of higher finance costs due to mobilisation advances.

Order book at | 8,696 crore as of Q3FY20

PNC’s order book (OB) was at | 8,696 crore as of Q3FY20, implying order

book-to-bill ratio of 1.9x on TTM revenues, giving us comfort on revenue

visibility ahead. This does not include Challakere-Hariyur project (BPC:

| 1,157.0 crore) and EPC project in Uttar Pradesh under NHDP Phase-VII as

appointed dates on these projects are awaited. The company has submitted

bids for projects worth | 15,000 crore and has further identified 40 projects

to bid for in Q4FY20. With this, it has maintained order inflows guidance of

| 5,000-6,000 crore in FY20E. On the execution front, execution in six out of

seven HAM projects is in full swing. Appointed date on the Challakere HAM

project is expected in Q4FY20, which will boost support execution. With

strong execution maintained in 9MFY20, the management has reiterated its

revenue growth guidance of 60% in FY20E. Overall, we expect revenues to

grow at 38.7% CAGR to | 5,959.5 crore in FY19-21E.

Funding of HAM equity to be met through internal accruals

PNC has total equity requirement of | 848 crore for HAM projects. Of this, it

has already infused | 427 crore as of Q3FY20. The balance | 421 crore would

be infused over the next two to three years: | 46 crore in Q4FY20E, | 250

crore in FY21E & balance in FY22E. As of Q3FY20, standalone debt was at

| 345 crore. However, with | 435 crore cash on books the company is net

cash positive as of Q3FY20. Furthermore, the management expects limited

rise in debt to | 390 crore by FY20E end. Additionally, PNC is expected to

receive cash inflows of | 300 crore from monetisation of Ghaziabad Aligarh

road project by Q1FY21E. Overall, with strong cash inflows from asset

monetisation, healthy internal cash accruals and limited increase in debt

expected, the company can easily fund its remaining equity requirement.

Valuation & Outlook

PNC remains our preferred pick in the EPC space given its robust orderbook

and with execution starting in six of the seven HAM projects. With strong

execution in 9MFY20 and operational performance expected to remain

strong, the management has maintained its revenue growth guidance at

60% in FY20E. We expect revenue growth at 38.7% CAGR to | 5,959.5 crore

in FY19-21E. Hence, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised

SoTP target price of | 255/share. We value its construction business at

| 228/share (at 7x FY21E EV/EBITDA implying 12.4x FY21 EPS).

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E CAGR FY19-21E

Net Sales 1,689.1 1,856.6 3,096.9 5,003.0 5,959.5 38.7%

EBITDA 221.0 318.8 457.3 735.4 834.3 35.1%

EBITDA Margin (%) 13.1 17.2 14.8 14.7 14.0

PAT 209.7 251.0 304.9 426.8 434.0 19.3%

EPS (|) 8.2 9.8 11.9 16.6 16.9

P/E (x) 24.5 20.4 16.8 12.0 11.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 23.7 16.0 11.4 7.3 6.7

RoNW (%) 9.7 13.9 14.4 17.1 15.0

RoCE (%) 13.2 13.7 15.6 28.2 21.7

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Particulars

Particular Amount (| crore)

Market Capitalization 5,130.8

Total Debt 345.0

Cash 435.0

EV 5,040.8

52 week H/L (|) 219 / 126

Equity capital 51.3

Face value | 2

Key Highlights

Core revenues grew 67.5% YoY to

| 1,218.0 crore in Q3FY20

The management has maintained

revenue guidance upwards to 50-

60% in FY20E

Standalone debt stood at | 345 crore

in Q3FY20

Maintain BUY with a revised target

price of | 255/share

Research Analyst

Bhupendra Tiwary, CFA

[email protected]

Harsh Pathak

[email protected]

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Result Update | PNC Infratech

Exhibit 1: Variance analysis

Particulars Q3FY20 Q3FY20E Q3FY19 YoY (%) Q2FY20 QoQ (%) Comments

Total Operating Income 1218.0 1247.0 727.0 67.5 1180.2 3.2Topline growth led by strong execution during

the quarter

Other Income 14.4 15.0 6.8 110.9 44.7 -67.9

Net Raw material consumed 846.0 872.9 498.3 69.8 759.5 11.4

Employee benefit expenses 85.3 68.6 55.2 54.7 58.3 46.3

Other Expenses 115.4 137.2 71.4 61.6 105.1 9.8

EBITDA 171.2 168.3 102.1 67.6 257.2 -33.4

EBITDA Margin(%) 14.1 13.5 14.0 1 bps 21.8 -774 bps

Depreciation 32.6 30.9 24.1 35.2 30.9 5.7

Interest 40.1 24.7 18.7 114.4 24.7 62.3

PBT 112.8 127.7 66.1 70.7 246.3 -54.2

Taxes 35.7 44.7 18.7 90.3 39.4 NM

PAT 77.2 83.0 47.4 62.9 206.9 -62.7RPAT grew on account of strong topline

growth and EBITDA margin expansion

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 2: Change in estimates

FY19 FY20E FY21E Comments

(| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change

Revenue 1,856.6 3,096.9 4,999.0 5,003.0 0.1 5,934.5 5,959.5 0.4 We incorporate management guidance

EBITDA 318.8 457.3 789.2 735.4 -6.8 818.2 834.3 2.0

EBITDA Margin (%) 17.2 14.8 15.8 14.7 110 bps 13.8 14.0 -20 bps

PAT 251.0 304.9 466.8 426.8 -8.6 439.6 434.0 -1.3

Diluted EPS (|) 9.8 11.9 18.2 16.6 -8.6 17.1 16.9 -1.1

FY18

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 3: Assumptions

Current Current Earlier Earlier

EPC FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E Comments

Order Inflow 1,832 3,972 5,668 7,750 6,150 6,000 8,000 6,000 8,000 We maintain our estimates

Order Backlog 3,445 5,400 9,392 15,286 12,210 13,331 20,945 18,904 19,296

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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Conference call Highlights

Awarding activity: As per the management, only 3,200 km road projects

have been awarded in YTD FY20 against target of 10,000 km in FY20 on

account of issues like land availability. However, NHAI has already

floated bids for 40 HAM and 50 EPC projects, which are expected to be

awarded in Q4FY20. Also, the management expects tendering and

ordering activity to pick up pace with the government recently having

announced the | 102 lakh crore National Infrastructure Pipeline with

investment in roads pegged at ~| 20 lakh crore in FY20-25. Apart from

this, the company could look at bidding for EPC related work pertaining

to metro and airport projects, going ahead.

Management guidance: PNC’s order book (OB) is at | 8,696 crore as of

Q3FY20. The company, in its OB, has not included Challakere-Hariyur

project (BPC: | 1,157.0 crore; EPC cost: | 935 crore) and EPC project in

Uttar Pradesh under NHDP Phase-VII as appointed dates on these

projects are awaited. PNC intends to take up EPC work for metros,

airports apart from road based EPC works, going ahead. The company

has submitted bids for projects worth | 15,000 crore for eight EPC and

six HAM projects and further has identified 40 projects to bid for in

Q4FY20. Overall, PNC has maintained order inflows guidance of | 5,000-

6,000 crore in FY20E. Going ahead, it expects OI to the tune of | 8000-

9000 crore in FY21E. The management has increased revenue growth

guidance to 60% in FY20E and 20% in FY21E. Furthermore, it aims to

maintain 13.5-14.0% EBITDA margins in FY20E & FY21E

HAM projects: Six out of seven HAM projects are witnessing execution

in full swing. While 80% land is already available at the seventh HAM

project (Challakere-Hariyur), NHAI intends to sort out all hurdles related

to acquisition in the remaining patch of this project before giving

appointed date (AD). Hence, the management now expects appointed

date for this project by March, 2020. Financial closure for this project is

already in place

Equity requirement: PNC has infused | 427 crore equity in its HAM

projects by Q3FY20 and has a balance equity requirement of | 421 crore,

which would be invested in the next two to two and a half years: | 46

crore in Q4FY20E, | 250 crore in FY21E and balance in FY22E

Debt & capex: PNC’s standalone debt was at | 345 crore as of Q3FY20.

It aims for standalone debt at | 390 crore by FY20E end. On the capex

front, the company has incurred | 71 crore capex in 9MFY20. The

management has guided for | 125-150 crore capex in FY20E & | 100-150

crore in FY21E. Cash on PNC’s books is at | 435 crore, making the

company net cash positive as of Q3FY20

Finance & employee cost: Finance cost was higher at | 40.1 crore in

Q3FY20 vs. | 24.7 crore reported in Q2FY20 on account of higher

interest cost on mobilisation advances. The company drew | 300 crore

mobilisation advances for the Mumbai-Nagpur expressway in Q3FY20.

However, this interest cost could reduce, going ahead. Employee cost

was higher in Q3FY20 on account of one-time arrears worth | 20-24

crore and appraisal given to employees

Early completion bonus: PNC expects to book bonus worth | 14.1 crore

for early completion of Aligarh-Moradabad highway project in Q4FY20E

Taxation: Since PNC has MAT credit available that can be utilised till

FY21E, it will follow the old tax regime. Accordingly, the management

has guided for 25-26% tax rate in FY20E and 30% in FY21E

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Result Update | PNC Infratech

Company Analysis

Exhibit 4: Key EPC projects under construction

Order book Remaining Value (| crore)

Nagpur-Mumbai Expressway 1568

Chakeri-Allahabad 1386

Purvanchal Expressway, Pkg-V 1111

Purvanchal Expressway, Pkg-VI 745

Aligarh-Kanpur 609

Nagina Kashipur 599

Top 6 projects 6018

Other Projects 2678

Total 8696

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 5: Strong order book position

3972

5668 7750

6150

6000 8000

2017

1676

1857

3097

4879

5959

5400

9392

15286

12210

13331

20945

2.7

5.6

8.2

3.9

2.7

3.5

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(x)

( |

cro

re)

Orderinflow Revenue Closing orderbook Orderbook to bill (x)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 6: Net working capital days and D/E trend

98

98

109

131

113

76

83

96

0.40.5

0.0

0.1 0.1

0.2 0.2 0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

70

90

110

130

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(x)

(days)

Net Working Capital days Debt-Equity

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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Result Update | PNC Infratech

Exhibit 7: BOT project summary

Project % Stake Authority State Stretch Type Kms LanesEquity invested

(| crore)

PNC's share of invested

equity (| crore)

Debt outstanding

(| crore)

Ghaziabad Aligarh 35 NHAI UP NH-91 Toll 125.0 4 194.0 67.9 897.0

Kanpur Kabrai 100 NHAI UP NH-86 Toll 123.0 2 67.5 67.5 166.0

Gwalior Bhind 100 MPRDC MP NH-92 Toll 107.7 2 78.3 78.3 175.0

Bareilly Almora* 100 UPSHA UP SH-37 Toll 54.0 4 74.6 74.6 419.0

Rae Bareli Jaunpur* 100 NHAI UP NH-23 Annuity 166.4 2 139.6 139.6 577.0

Narela Industrial Estate 100 DSIIDC Delhi NA Annuity 33.0 NA 35.0 35.0 70.0

Kanpur Ayodhya 100 NHAI UP NH-28 OMT 217.0 4 0.1 0.1 -

Total 826.1 589.1 463.0 2304.0

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 8: HAM project summary

Project % Stake Authority State/Stretch Stretch Type Kms LanesTotal Project

cost (| crore)

PNC's share of invested

equity (| crore)

Outstanding Debt

Dausa-Lalsot 100 NHAI Rajasthan NH-11A Hybrid 83.5 4 820.0 65.0 309.0

Chitradurga–Davanagere 100 NHAI Karnataka NH-48 Hybrid 72.7 6 1338.0 55.0 308.0

Jhansi-Khajuraho (Package I) 100 NHAI UP & MP NH-75/76 Hybrid 76.3 4 1342.0 98.0 362.0

Jhansi-Khajuraho (Package II) 100 NHAI UP & MP NH-75/76 Hybrid 85.4 4 1262.0 58.0 309.0

Chakeri-Allahabad 100 NHAI UP NH-2 Hybrid 145.1 6 2018.0 77.0 150.0

Aligarh Kanpur 100 NHAI UP NH-91 Hybrid 45.0 4 1104.0 66.0 100.0

Challakere - Hariyur 100 NHAI Karnataka NH-150 A Hybrid 55.7 4 1013.0 8.0 0.0

Total 563.7 8897.0 427.0 1538.0

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 9: Revenue to grow at 38.7% CAGR in FY19-21E

1689.1

1856.6

3096.9

5003.0

5959.5

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

6000.0

7000.0

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(| crore)

38.7% CAGR

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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Result Update | PNC Infratech

Exhibit 10: EBITDA & EBITDA margin trend

221.0

318.8

457.3

735.4

834.3

13.1

17.2

14.8 14.7 14.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(| crore)

EBITDA EBITDA Margin

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 11: PAT growth trend

151.9

251.0

304.9

426.8

434.0

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(%

)

(| crore)

PAT PAT Margin(%)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 12: Return ratios trend

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

RoE RoCE RoIC Adjusted RoCE Adjusted RoIC

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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Result Update | PNC Infratech

Valuation & Outlook

PNC remains our preferred pick in the EPC space given its robust orderbook

& with execution starting in six of the seven HAM projects. With strong

execution in 9MFY20 and operational performance expected to remain

strong, the management has maintained its revenue growth guidance to

60% in FY20E. We expect revenue growth at a 38.7% CAGR to | 5,959.5

crore in FY19-21E. Hence, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a

revised SoTP target price of | 255/share. We value its construction business

at | 228/share (at 7x FY21E EV/EBITDA implying 12.4x FY21 EPS).

Exhibit 13: SoTP valuation

Entity Value (| crore) Per share (|) Comment

Construction Business 5,840 228 7x FY21 EV/EBITDA

BOT & HAM Projects 1,171 46

Bareilly Almora 79 3

Gwalior Bhind 192 8

Raibereli Jaunpur 89 3

Narela Industrial Area 150 6

Kanpur Kabrai 234 9

Investment in HAM projects 427 17

Less:Net Debt 457 18 FY21E net debt

Target Price 6,554 255

Rounded off target price 255

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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Result Update | PNC Infratech

Exhibit 14: Recommendation History vs. Consensus

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Feb-20Nov-19Sep-19Jul-19Apr-19Feb-19Nov-18Sep-18Jun-18Apr-18Jan-18Nov-17Sep-17Jun-17Apr-17

(%

)(|)

Price Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with BUY

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 15: Top 10 Shareholders

Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)

1 NCJ Infrsturcture Pvt 30-Jun-19 19.6 50.3 -1.1

2 Jain Yogesh Kumar 30-Jun-19 8.5 21.9 0.0

3 Jain Pradeep Kumar 30-Jun-19 8.0 20.6 0.0

4 Hdfc Asset Managemen 31-Dec-19 7.4 19.0 0.0

5 Jain Navin Kumar 30-Jun-19 7.1 18.1 18.1

6 Jain Madhavi 30-Jun-19 7.0 18.0 0.0

7 Icici Prudential Ass 31-Dec-19 4.7 12.0 -0.5

8 Jain Chakresh Kumar 30-Jun-19 4.6 11.8 0.0

9 Jain Vaibhav 30-Jun-19 4.6 11.7 0.0

10 Jain Ashita 30-Jun-19 3.1 7.9 0.0

Source: Reuters, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 16: Shareholding Pattern

(in %) Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19

Promoter 56.1 56.1 56.1 56.1 56.1

Public 43.9 43.9 43.9 43.9 43.9

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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Result Update | PNC Infratech

Financial summary

Exhibit 17: Profit and loss statement | crore

(| Crore) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Net Sales 1,856.6 3,096.9 5,003.0 5,959.5

Other operating income - - 124.0 -

Other income 23.0 23.0 85.6 39.5

Total Revenues 1,879.6 3,119.9 5,088.6 5,999.0

Raw Material Expense 1,218.2 2,114.0 3,492.1 4,171.6

(Increase)/decrease in inventories of WIP 6.0 - - -

Employee benefit expenses 124.0 192.3 265.2 309.9

Other Expenses 189.6 333.3 510.3 643.6

Total Operating Expenditure 1,537.8 2,639.5 4,267.6 5,125.1

EBITDA 318.8 457.3 735.4 834.3

Interest 30.7 64.1 117.2 122.4

Depreciation 77.2 92.2 127.0 131.5

PBT 233.9 324.0 576.7 619.9

Total Tax (17.1) 19.1 150.0 186.0

Reported PAT 251.0 304.9 426.8 434.0

Adjusted PAT 251.0 304.9 426.8 434.0

EPS (Diluted) 9.8 11.9 16.6 16.9

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 18: Cash flow statement | crore

| crore FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Profit after Tax 251.0 304.9 426.8 434.0

Depreciation 77.2 92.2 127.0 131.5

Interest Paid (23.0) (23.0) (85.6) (39.5)

Cash Flow before WC changes 318.8 457.3 735.6 834.3

Net Increase in Current Assets (154.2) (439.4) ### (847.5)

Net Increase in Current Liabilities 177.0 374.5 734.2 385.0

Net CF from Operating Activities 358.7 373.3 116.3 185.9

(Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets (128.0) (300.7) (125.0) (100.0)

Purchase of Investment (64.9) (123.5) (75.0) (200.0)

Interest Income 23.0 23.0 85.6 39.5

Net CF from Investing Activities (169.9) (401.2) (114.5) (260.5)

Proceeds from share capital - 0.0 - -

Interest Paid (30.7) (64.1) (117.2) (122.4)

Net CF from Financing Activities (72.7) 154.0 (131.3) (37.4)

Net Cash flow 116.2 126.1 (129.4) (112.0)

Opening Cash/ Cash Equivalent 35.5 147.3 309.4 180.0

Closing Cash/ Cash Equivalent 147.3 309.4 180.0 68.0

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 19: Balance sheet | crore

(| Crore) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Liabilities

Share Capital 51.3 51.3 51.3 51.3

Reserves & Surplus 1,755.4 2,063.9 2,451.3 2,845.3

Total Shareholders funds 1,806.7 2,115.2 2,502.6 2,896.6

Secured Loan 128.6 374.7 400.0 525.0

Unsecured Loan - - - -

Total Debt 128.6 374.7 400.0 525.0

Deferred Tax Liability - - - -

Liability side total 1,935 2,490 2,903 3,422

Assets

Gross Block 570.5 860.2 996.2 1,096.2

Net Block 404.8 613.5 611.3 579.7

Capital WIP 11.1 6.2 6.2 6.2

Non-current Investments 793.4 916.9 991.9 1,191.9

Current Assets

Inventories 175.8 403.6 668.4 816.4

Sundry Debtors 690.0 615.4 1,069.4 1,387.8

Loans and Advances 412.7 566.3 892.2 1,142.9

Other Current Assets 149.7 282.2 441.1 571.5

Cash 147.3 309.4 180.0 68.0

Total Current Assets 1,575.4 2,176.9 3,251.0 3,986.6

Creditors 462.8 473.8 775.3 898.0

Provisions 17.6 11.7 18.4 22.5

Other Current Liabilities 205.6 369.9 582.8 711.9

Other Long Term Liabilities 165.2 370.3 583.3 712.5

Total Current Liabilities 851.2 1,225.6 1,959.8 2,344.9

Net Current Assets 724.3 951.3 1,291.2 1,641.7

Assets side total 1,935 2,490 2,903 3,422

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 20: Key ratios

(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Per Share Data

EPS (Fully Diluted) 9.8 11.9 16.6 16.9

Cash EPS 12.8 15.5 21.6 22.0

BV 70.4 82.4 97.5 112.9

Dividend per share 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.6

Operating Ratios

EBITDA / Net Sales 17.2 14.8 14.7 14.0

PAT / Net Sales 13.5 9.8 8.5 7.3

Inventory Days 35 47.6 48.8 50.0

Debtor Days 136 72.5 78.0 85.0

Creditor Days 91 55.8 56.6 55.0

Return Ratios

RoE 13.9 14.4 17.1 15.0

RoCE 13.7 15.6 28.2 21.7

RoIC 13.6 16.8 22.4 21.0

Valuation Ratios

EV / EBITDA 16.0 11.4 7.3 6.7

P/E 20.4 16.8 12.0 11.8

EV / Net Sales 2.8 1.7 1.1 0.9

Market Cap / Sales 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.9

Price to Book Value 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.8

Turnover Ratios

Asset turnover 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.7

Gross Block Turnover 3.2 3.6 5.0 5.4

Solvency Ratios

Debt / Equity 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2

Current Ratio 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7

Debt / EBITDA 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.6

Quick Ratio 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.3

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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Exhibit 21: ICICI Direct coverage universe (Construction)

Sector / Company CMP M Cap

(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E

KNR Constructions (KNRCON) 247 300 Buy 3,473 18.7 17.0 19.0 13.2 14.5 13.0 8.7 7.9 6.5 2.5 2.1 1.8 19.0 16.2 17.8

PNC Infratech (PNCINF) 200 255 Buy 5,131 11.9 16.6 16.9 16.2 12.0 11.8 11.4 7.3 6.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 14.4 17.1 15.0

Ashoka Buildcon (ASHBUI) 95 120 Buy 2,667 -1.4 -0.5 2.0 NA NA 48.0 5.8 5.6 4.8 NA NA 8.1 NA NA 16.9

NCC (NAGCON) 58 75 Buy 3,484 9.4 6.1 7.1 6.2 9.5 8.1 3.6 4.9 4.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 11.9 7.3 7.9

RoE (%)EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B (x)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its

stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,

Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined

as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

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