building a sound schedule in an

enterprise environment using

schedule metric analysis

Dr Dan Patterson, PMP l CEO & Founder, Acumen

Dr Dan Patterson PMP Founder, CEO Acumen

20 years project management software

Risk/schedule thought leader

Welcom, Pertmaster, Primavera, Acumen legacy

Acumen Project analytics

World-recognized risk workshops

S1 > S5 schedule maturity

Acumen Fuse project analysis tool

May 8, 2012

2

Introductions

Importance of a sound basis of schedule

The CPM schedule building blocks

Introduction to metric analysis

Industry standards

Your metric toolkit: key metrics

Scorecarding

Metrics for execution & forensics

Results from research on planning quality

Q&A

May 8, 2012

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Presentation Overview

The Importance of a

Sound Basis of Schedule

S1

• Schedule Basis

• Reflects latest scope/contractor updates

S2

• Critiqued Schedule

• Structurally sound, no contingency, sound logic

S3

• Risk-Adjusted Schedule

• Estimate uncertainty, risk events

S4

• Optimized Target Scenarios

• Reduced hot spots, higher confidence

S5

• Team Validated Scenario

• Buy-in on mitigation plans

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A schedule is a

forecast

Used as a benchmark

against which to

measure performance

Means of defining &

capturing scope

Means of

communicating the

plan to stakeholders

Linking Scope to Work

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Schedule needs to reflect the work needed to achieve the overarching objective of the project

Separate deliverables from work

Start your plan with a WBS…

• What are we building?

• Criteria

Project Objective

• Performance

• Cost, quality etc

Project Scope

• List of ‘features’ Project

Deliverables

• Breakdown of deliverables WBS

• Detailed work, durations, sequencing etc

Activities

• Capacities, demands etc Resources

Scheduling tools are

an excellent means of

modeling these

moving parts.

But…

They do little for

making sure the

building blocks are

used correctly….

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CPM Building Blocks Project Defines start or finish of the job

Encapsulates the defined work

Activities

Defines duration for a given scope

of work

Logic Links Defines sequence of work

Calendars Defines when an activity/resource

can work

Constraints Defines date overrides

Resources Defines who/what is available to

execute work

Resource

Assignment

Links the “executors” to their work

The Problem with Gantt Charts…

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Highly vertical in nature

A row per activity required

Humans like timelines!

Logic adds complexity

Difficult to trace

Detail lost in summaries

Just shows earliest/latest

Activity-centric

Doesn’t show by resource

Objective means of determining schedule quality

Analytics for a previously subjective science

Analyzing output from schedule, cost, risk models

Doesn’t replace need for a sound CPM tool

Objective of pinpointing hotspots

Shortcomings, issues, overruns, trends

Thresholds measure acceptability

Comparison against benchmarks/tripwires

Trending over time

Comparisons, performance improvements

May 8, 2012

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Introduction to Metric Analysis

May 8, 2012

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Metrics Metric definition

“a measurement used to mathematically gauge a quantity”

Metric Score

Typically a count of activities

Can be a summation e.g. cost

Metric percentage

Provides context e.g. within a set of activities

Threshold or Tripwire

Acceptable bandwidth relative to a given basis

Metric Examples

Sli

de

10

Government agency (compliance)

Government-wide

Department of Defense (DoD)

NDIA’s Generally Accepted Scheduling Principles

(GASP)

Non-government specific (best practice)

Project Management Institute (PMI)

AACE International

Thought leaders e.g. Acumen

Company-specific

May 8, 2012

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Industry Standards

Compliance Metrics

1. Capturing all activities: Schedule should reflect all

activities in WBS (government and contractor)

2. Sequencing all activities: Activities sequenced in

the logical order they are to be carried out

3. Assigning resources to all activities: reflect what

resources are needed to do the work

4. Establishing duration of all activities: realistically

reflect how long each activity will take

5. Integrating schedule activities horizontally and

vertically: breadth & depth scope

6. Establishing critical path for all activities: driving

path through schedule

7. Identifying float between activities: schedule

flexibility can be determined

8. Conducting schedule risk analysis: predict level of

confidence

9. Updating schedule using logic and durations to

determine the dates: realism

10. Creating a baseline schedule

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1. Logic: identify how schedule is linked together

2. Leads: leads distorts total float in schedule

3. Lags: hides detail in schedule

4. Relationship Types: Focus on Finish-to-Start (FS)

5. Hard Constraints: overrides natural CPM

6. High Float: network may not be logic-driven

7. Negative Float: result of forced planning

8. High Duration: lack of detail

9. Invalid Dates: errors around the data date

10. Resources: verification that tasks have resources

11. Missed Tasks: comparison to baseline

12. Critical Path Test: tests validity of driving path

13. Critical Path Length Index (CPLI): “realism”

14. Baseline Execution Index (BEI): performance

DCMA 14 Point GAO Scheduling Best Practices

Use of FS, FF, SF, SS links

SS links don’t account for durations

Lags hide schedule detail

Leads cause reverse dates

Circular logic between projects

Out of sequence updates

Open start/finish: hidden open ends

Logic Density™

Logic Hotspot™

Redundancy Index™

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Sound Logic

A

B

C

redundant

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Logic Density™

Great measure of complexity

Dual-band threshold: 2 to 5…

Determine Logic Hotspots™ in your schedule

Overly complex, non-necessary logic

Negatively impacts a schedule risk analysis

Look for less than 15% redundancy in schedule

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Redundancy Index™

Understand the use of constraints

Delivery dates?

Look for open ends with constraints

These are OK

Understand float around constraints

Float often artificially generated

Avoid hard constraints

They go against the whole premise of CPM!

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Appropriate use of Constraints

Appropriate use of calendars

Use reasonable number of calendars

Use reasonable level of detail

Don’t use hourly calendar on a 3 year construction project!

Be careful about multiple calendars in sequences of activities

Logic links inherit either predecessor or successor

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Calendars

Durations define level of detail in schedule

Ensure sufficient level of detail to:

Track performance

Publish status

Collaborate the work with the project team

Differentiate between critical/non critical

Great indicator as to how risky a project is

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Durations & Level of Detail

Average Float

Maximum Float

Float ratio (# of days float per day of work)

Float Map™

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Float Analysis

Means of grouping activities

Against which we can apply metrics

Means of quickly changing grouping

Multiple dimension slice and dice

Means of also slicing by time period

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Visualization

Ribbon Visualization

Metrics are useful but don’t give overall picture

Scorecarding: group individual metrics into single score

Schedule Quality Index™

Scores can be either

Activity based: number of activities that fail a test (less detailed,

higher scores)

Metric based: number of metrics that fail a test (more detailed,

lower scores)

Weight importance of metrics

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Scorecarding

Driving Logic trace shows key path(s)

Based on:

Forwards only view

Backwards only view

View between any two given activities

Analyze the driving path through metrics

May 8, 2012

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Tracing Driving Logic

Traditional measures include:

Earned value: heavy time investment to implement

Earned schedule: similar to EV

% complete: what does this really tell us?

Ahead/behind baseline: too granular a scale…

Baseline Compliance™

Used to determine how close a schedule is planned and executed against it’s baseline

Measure of well the plan is being executed

More than just date comparison

Looks at period-compliance

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Metrics for Execution

Baseline Compliance™

Compliance Scenarios

Compliance Metrics

Hidden critical paths

Risk Hotspots

Risk exposure over time

May 8, 2012

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Metrics for Risk Analysis

Compare multiple updates, iterations etc

Means of pinpointing

Changes e.g. duration, logic

More importantly, should be:

Insight into impact of changes e.g. float

Scorecarding

Use as means of showing improvements

May 8, 2012

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Metrics for Schedule Forensics

Sound basis of schedule is “king” for all things project

management…

Scheduling tools provide excellent framework for

developing CPM schedules

Yet they do little to help guide scheduling maturity –

garbage in, garbage out…

Metric analysis provides objective measurement

Visualization is as important as the analysis

Sound planning drives project success…

May 8, 2012

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Conclusions

Dr Dan Patterson PMP

dpatterson@projectacumen.com

Acumen Fuse Website

www.projectacumen.com

May 8, 2012

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