P.M.I. ®

Intertanko ConferenceOil Balance in America

October 28, 2008

P.M.I. ®

Crude Oil

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3

Crude Oil Price (US$b)

WTI CushingDaily Crude Prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2005 2006 2007 2008

• Price volatility linked to financial performance.

• The 2008 expected WTI average is 105 US$/b.

• The WTD average of the worlds main producers require a minimum WTI price of 67 US$/b for 2009.

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4

Americas Crude Oil Production (Mbd)

• US and Canadian production represent half of the Americas production.

• Canadian synthetic crude and Brazilian offshore crude will sustain Americas production through 2019.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

USA Canadá Latin America

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5

Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela Crude Oil Production (Mbd)

The growth slope of latin american production is given by brazilian crude.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Brazil Mexico Venezuela

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6

USA Crude Oil Production (Mbd)

Since demand is expected to remain stagnant, Imports will increase proportionally to production decline in the USGC, USA’s main refining area.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

PADD I PADD II PADD III PADD IV PADD V

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7

Americas Crude Oil Imports (Mbd)

• US decline in production will increase its dependancy on foreign oils.

• Additional supply will most likely come from Canadian oil sands production delivered via pipeline into US Midcontinent and USGC.0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

USA Canadá Latin America

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8

USA Crude Oil Imports from the Americas 1993 - 2007 (Mbd)

• Primary imports come from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela.*

• Mexican production decline and Venezuelan politics will increase dependancy on Canadian oil.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Mexico Canadá Venezuela Colombia Ecuador Brazil

*Saudi Arabia is the second largest exporter to the USA.

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9

Canada Crude Oil Exports (Mbd)

Additional pipeline construction is required in order to export canadian crude oil to the USA.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Canada

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10

Mexico Crude Oil Production (Mbd)

Mexican crude oil production peaked in 2004; since then, field maturity has pushed production down.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

Mexico

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11

Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela Crude Oil Exports (Mbd)

• Venezuela may be the main latin american heavy crude exporter.

• The mexican government announced the construction of a new refinery in the next decade.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Brazil Mexico Venezuela

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12

Mexican Crude Oil Exports (Mbd)

* Estimated

• Oil production in Cantarell in decline.

• Ku Maloop Zaap production is compensating some of the loss.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2005

2006

2007

1S08

*

3T08

*

Maya Istmo Olmeca Altamira

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13

Mexico Crude Oil Exports 2007 (Mbd)

Export destiny:

Total 1,686 Mbd

80% United States10% Europe8% Caribbean2% India

USA 1,352

Europe 163

Caribbean 135

India 35

P.M.I. ®

14

Crude Oil Flows to the USA 2007

Canada 1,890 Mbd

Brazil169 Mbd

Venezuela 1166 Mbd

Mexico1352 Mbd

Ecuador200 Mbd

Colombia139 Mbd

Alaska (ANS)650 Mbd

P.M.I. ®

Refined Products

P.M.I. ®

16

Mexico Gasoline Commercial Activities (Mbd)

* Preliminary data

• 45% of mexican gasolines imports are from the USA.

• Mexican gasoline imports will continue to increase.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005

2006

2007

1S08

*

3T08

**

Imports Third Party Trading

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17

Mexico Gasoline Imports 2007 (Mbd)

USA133 Carribean

17

South America

12

Europe107

Middle East15

Asia14

Import destiny:

298 Mbd

75% Gulf of Mexico14% Pacific11% Northern border

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18

Mexico Distillate Commercial Activities (Mbd)

* Preliminary data

• Distillate imports in Mexico are increasing due to a higher demand.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2005

2006

2007

1S08

*

3T08

*

Exports Imports Third Party Trading

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19

Mexico Distillate Imports 2007 (Mbd)

USA43 Mbd

South America1 Mbd

Asia13 Mbd

Import source:

57 Mbd

75% United States23% Asia2% Southamerica

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20

USA Gasoline and Distillate Flows 2007

Finished MoGas and Components

Flow to the USA from:

Argentina 12 Mbd

Brazil 5 Mbd

Canada 165 Mbd

Mexico 7 Mbd

Venezuela 60 Mbd

Distillates

Flow to the USA from:

Argentina 1 Mbd

Canada 125 Mbd

Mexico 1

Venezuela 12

Finished MoGas and Components

Flow from the USA to:

Canada 18 Mbd

Mexico 133 Mbd

Distillates

Flow from the USA to:

Argentina 6 Mbd

Brazil 2 Mbd

Canada 12 Mbd

Mexico 43 Mbd

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21

Clean Products movements in Mexican Ports (2007)

Pacific Imports

Diesel 18.5 Mbd 42 vessels

Gasoline 76 Mbd 157 vessels

Pacific Exports

Jet Fuel 3 Mbd 5 vessels

Gulf Imports

Diesel 18 Mbd 27 vessels

Gasoline 225Mbd 417 vessels

Jet Fuel 3.6 Mbd 20 vessels

Gulf Exports

Diesel 2.6 Mbd 4 vessels

Total movement and product flow*

Gulf 449 Mbd 703 vessels

Pacific 87 Mbd 172 vessels

* Includes clean products, GLP, Nafta, and residuals.

P.M.I. ®

Conclusions

1. United States remains as the main crude oil importer of the world; most likely Canada will be the primary supplier through pipeline.

2. Texas and Louisiana will remain as the main export destination of mexican crude oil.

3. Gasoline will continue to flow from the United States and Europe to the Mexican Gulf Coast.

4. Diesel will flow mostly from Asia to the Mexican Pacific Coast.

5. The most common vessels for clean products in Mexican Ports are 50, 000 tons (Aframax). 80% of these vessels move products in the Gulf Coast and the remaining 20% in the Pacific Coast.

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23

Acknowledgement

PMI acknowledges all data and information contained in this presentation provided by the following:

• Pemex

• Purvin & Gertz

• Platts

• Reuters

• Energy Information Administration (US Department of Energy)