PMI Global Congress North America 2013 - Improving Focus and Predictability on Projects
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Transcript of PMI Global Congress North America 2013 - Improving Focus and Predictability on Projects
Improving Focus and
Predictability with Critical Chain
Project Management
Session NA13BRL11
Joe Cooper
Allegient – Indianapolis, IN
“PMI” is a registered trade and service mark of the Project Management Institute, Inc.
©2013 Permission is granted to PMI for PMI® Marketplace use only.
2
Topics covered
• Problems associated with poor project
performance
• Root causes of the problems
• Addressing the problems at their core
with Critical Chain solutions
3
Problems of poor
project performance
• Low team morale
• Missed delivery dates: Late projects
• Excessive project durations: Reduced
return on investment (ROI)
4
Low team morale
5
Root causes
• Low-trust environments
• Nonproductive multitasking
• Uncertainty in task estimates
– Student Syndrome
– Parkinson’s Law
• High amounts of work in progress
6
Multitasking example
Volunteer
needed
7
Multitasking example
1 A I
2 B II
3 C III
4 D IV
5 E V
6 F VI
7 G VII
8 H VIII
9 I IX
10 J X
8
Multitasking example:
observations
• Context switching creates a loss of
productivity, an increase in stress,
and a decrease in quality
• “Focus” allows most tasks (or
projects) to complete faster and with
better quality
9
Multitasking example:
observations
• Even the tasks (or projects) that
start later, finish earlier
• Time to Market and Return on
Investment improve significantly
10
Multitasking
Team Members: 1 1 1
P1: A B C D E F G H I J
P2:
P3:
48 Weeks
A B C D E F G H I J 50 Weeks
A B C D E F G H I J 52 Weeks
$ $ $ $
“Any man who can drive safely while kissing
a pretty girl is simply not giving the kiss the
attention it deserves” –Albert Einstein
$ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
11
Focused execution
Team Members: 1 1 1
P1: D E F G H I J
P2:
P3:
20 Weeks
D E F G H I J 28 Weeks
D E F G H I J 36 Weeks
$
B C A
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
B C A
B C A
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
12
Multitasking vs.
Focus comparison
Multitasking
Focus
“Focusing on everything is
synonymous with focusing on
nothing at all.” –Dr. Eli Goldratt
P1: A B C D E F G H I J
P2:
P3:
48 Weeks
A B C D E F G H I J 50 Weeks
A B C D E F G H I J 52 Weeks
P1: D E F G H I J
P2:
P3:
20 Weeks
D E F G H I J 28 Weeks
D E F G H I J 36 Weeks
B C A
B C A
B C A
13
Probability of task
duration
Pro
babili
ty
Time
10% confidence 50% confidence 95% confidence
2 days 5 days 12 days
.20
.40
.60
.80
1.0
“Prediction is very difficult,
especially if it’s about the
future.” –Nils Bohr
14
Student Syndrome
Planned Task
Effort
Time
“Never put off till tomorrow what
may be done the day after tomorrow
just as well.” –Mark Twain
15
Parkinson’s Law
• Work expands to fill the time allotted
– Reliable estimators
– Padding will be cut on next estimate
– Polishing the cannonball (deliverables)
“Work expands so as to fill the
time available for its completion.”
–Cyril Northcote Parkinson
16
Parkinson’s Law
∴ Heavily padded task durations
become self-fulfilling prophecies even
when the work is completed “early”.
“Work expands so as to fill the
time available for its completion.”
–Cyril Northcote Parkinson
17
Critical Chain
unlocks a series of
new paradigms
• Based on the works of Taiichi Ohno,
father of the Toyota Production System
– Dr. Goldratt: Standing on the shoulders
of giants – white paper
“We can’t solve problems by using the
same kind of thinking we used when
we created them.” – Albert Einstein
18
Critical Chain
unlocks a series of
new paradigms
• Biggest waste on projects is padding
buried in tasks
– 50/50 task estimates eliminate the
hidden padding
“We can’t solve problems by using the
same kind of thinking we used when
we created them.” – Albert Einstein
19
• Project buffer: When contingency is
aggregated, variability goes down –
Central Limit Theorem
“We can’t solve problems by using the
same kind of thinking we used when
we created them.” – Albert Einstein
Critical Chain
unlocks a series of
new paradigms
20
• 25% reduction in project durations is
minimum to expect
• Project on-time delivery improves to 95%
• Creates an objective and transparent
leading indicator of project health
“We can’t solve problems by using the
same kind of thinking we used when
we created them.” – Albert Einstein
Critical Chain
unlocks a series of
new paradigms
21
Protecting the project
commitment
Hidden
Padding
Hidden
Padding
Hidden
Padding
Hidden
Padding
Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4
Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Project Buffer Time
Saved
22
Buffer consumption chart B
uffer
consum
ed
23
Portfolio/Program buffer chart B
uffer
co
nsum
ed
.P1111
.P2222
.P3333
.P4444
.P5555
.P6666
P7777.
Project duration
24
The Critical Chain Way
• Aggressive and
achievable task
estimates – 50/50
• Focus until finished /
reduced multitasking
• It’s ok to be early, ok to
be late, just focus and
hand off the baton as
quickly as possible
25
The Critical Chain Way
• Mutual trust
• High team morale
• High speed,
quality, throughput
26
Thank you!
Joe Cooper
email: [email protected]
phone: 309-212-6305
: joecooper1
www.Allegient.com
:1joecooper