Plymouth Skills Analysis · 2008 and Q2 2009, contraction that is twice as deep as that experienced...

Plymouth Skills Analysis

Plymouth City Council

June 2015

Contents

Background & purpose

Summary

National context

Local economic context

Current employer demand for skills & future skills

requirements

Current supply of skills – young people unemployed/ Not in

Employment, Education or Training (NEET)

Current supply of skills – young people in education or

training

Current supply of skills – young people in employment

Skills & Employment – The Full

Labour Market Picture

Source: UKCES, 2009

Background & Purpose

Comprehensive picture of the skills provision across

Plymouth, placed within the local labour market context.

Draws on available evidence as a first step towards

understanding the skills needs across the city.

Complements the Skills Audit and the Employability

Survey in painting a picture of the skills demand-supply

mismatch, what it means for the city and what causes it.

Summary

LABOUR MARKET:

Falling (youth) unemployment rates below the UK rate, employment rising

Bounced back strongly from the recession

The demand for skills has risen in line with employment

CURRENT SKILLS PROFILE:

Skilled population with 34.7% NVQ4+ qualified workers and rising, and 3.5% with no

qualifications.

However, 9% of the NVQ3 qualified residents are unemployed, a significantly higher

rate than any other qualification group.

The rising supply in high-skilled employees has likely placed a downward pressure on

high-skilled resident wages

There is, on the other hand, an under-supply in low-skilled residents

This is amplified by significant skills gaps concentrated in existing low-level jobs, and

is complemented by a decreasing proportion of vocational learning and apprenticeship

starts.

FUTURE SKILLS NEEDS:

Hour-glass shaped occupational structure with a rise in the demand for high-level and

low-level skills and a decline in intermediate skills

This is reflected in higher employment growth in occupations such as managers and

senior officials and associate professional and technical occupations, and in

elementary occupations, and sales and customer services;

Construction skills expected to be of particularly high demand to 2030.

National Context

National Output

The UK experienced one of the deepest recessions of any major economy. UK GDP contracted by 6.0% in real terms between Q1 2008 and Q2 2009, contraction that is twice as deep as that experienced in 1980. This recession, however, has been characterized by a much lower decline in employment.

GDP exceeded its pre-recession peak in Q2 2013, and is now 2.9% higher than before the recession. Compared to the corresponding quarter the previous year, output growth has slowed from 3% in Q4 2014 to 2.4% in Q1 2015. This is due to a weaker output growth in the production and services industries and further contractions in construction output. Nevertheless, this is the 9th consecutive quarter of growth since the recession and is now 10.7% above its Q2 2009 trough.

The main driver for this marked recovery has been household spending, which is expected to continue making the greatest contribution to growth throughout 2015. This is followed by business investment and housing. 80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0UK GDP by sector Q1 2006 - Q2 2014

Total Production

Constructions Services

Source: ONS Quarterly National Accounts, 2014

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

108.0

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

GDP at market prices Qtr. Ch. GDP (%) UK GDP Growth, Q1 2006 - Q2 2014

% change quarter-on-quarter

GDP at currentprices - SA

REC

ESSI

ON

Real Wage Growth & Employment

Growth

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108Employment since the recession Q1 2008 - Q3 2014

France Germany United Kingdom United States

Real wage growth has seen a significant decline

since its brief recovery from the recession, with

the average nominal wage growth below the

growth in inflation

With inflation seeing a consistent decline since

the end of 2011, real wages have now begun to

see a positive growth over the last quarter of

2014, and EY forecasts show it will to grow

further as inflation continues to dip in 2015 and

nominal wages continue to grow

As opposed to output growth, the recent

performance of the labour market in the UK

compares favourably against other major

economies

Between 2008 Q2 and 2010 Q1 the number of

people employed fell by around 2.4%.

Employment levels have since risen and in Q1

2013 they have reached their pre-crisis peak. An

accelerated employment growth has been

experienced subsequently, and has been the

highest growth of all major economies.

Source: ILO Global wage report collection,

OECD Short-term labour market statistics, 2014

Inflation > wage growth

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Q1 2

006

Q2 2

006

Q3 2

006

Q4 2

006

Q1 2

007

Q2 2

007

Q3 2

007

Q4 2

007

Q1 2

008

Q2 2

008

Q3 2

008

Q4 2

008

Q1 2

009

Q2 2

009

Q3 2

009

Q4 2

009

Q1 2

010

Q2 2

010

Q3 2

010

Q4 2

010

Q1 2

011

Q2 2

011

Q3 2

011

Q4 2

011

Q1 2

012

Q2 2

012

Q3 2

012

Q4 2

012

Q1 2

013

Q2 2

013

Q3 2

013

Q4 2

013

Q1 2

014

Q2 2

014

Q3 2

014

Q4 2

014

% ch. qtr. Real Wage Growth 2006 - 2015

Wage growth

RPI

Labour productivity

UK labour productivity remains weak compared

to other major economies. Since 2007, UK

output per hour grew faster than in Germany

and Italy, but there remains a substantial gap in

labour productivity for the UK compared with the

USA and France.

The UKCES argue that this could be a result of

a combination of poor output growth and

resurgent employment with new highs in hours

worked and a tendency for UK firms to ‘hoard’

employees amidst constrained demand.

They also argue that it is more likely, however,

that – given the lasting nature of the productivity

gap – changes in the composition of output and

employment are more a reflection of sustained

adverse shocks in the UK’s terms of trade and

weaknesses in the reallocation of resources

between firms in the context of a banking crisis.

However, as the largest emerging economies

continue to develop and increase their demand

for high-value services which the UK is a leading

exporter in, there is potential for an accelerated

productivity growth. 96

98

100

102

104

106

108

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Labour productivity - Output per hour worked 2007-2013

Germany France Italy UK USASource: ONS International comparisons of productivity, 2014

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2010=100 UK Labour Productivity Q1 2006 – Q4 2013

REC

ESSI

ON

UK Sector Performance

In recent decades there has been a marked shift

in the UK economy away from manufacturing

towards services, and a hollowing out of the

labour market driven by technological progress,

with middle occupations becoming automated.

Growth has particularly been shifted towards

knowledge intensive services; which now

account for 34% of UK output and 29% of total

employment

Output in the constructions services has seen a

particularly significant reduction, and currently

accounts for 7% of the UK’s GVA. A similar

trend has been observed for the manufacturing

sector, currently 10% of output.

77% of UK GVA is accounted for by the services

sector, of which professional and business

services (12%) is the largest sub-sector.

Services also dominate UK employment,

accounting for 83% of jobs, with Health and

Social Work (13%) as its largest sub-sector.

Manufacturing (8%) and construction (6%) are

the next two largest sectors by employment.

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Mining & Quarrying

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

Oil and Gas

Utilities

Construction

Shipbuilding

Clothing & Textiles

Other Manufacturing

Wood, Paper & Printing

Non-metal products

Metal Products

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

Aerospace

Chemicals

ICT & Precision Instruments

Automotive

Pharmaceuticals

Machinery/Electrical/Transport

Admin & Support Services

Hotels & Restaurants

Community, Social and Personal services

Real Estate

Public Admin & Defence

Retail

Health & Social Care

Transport, Storage & Distribution

Publishing and Broadcasting

Information Economy

Education

Financial Services

Professional & Business Services

Oth

er P

rod

uct

ion

Low

-Med

Tec

h M

anu

fM

ed-H

igh

Te

chM

anu

fO

ther

Ser

vice

sK

no

wle

dge

Serv

ices

Structure of the UK economy 2013

Share of UK GVA Share of UK Employment Source: BIS Analysis of ONS – GDP (O) low level aggregates, 2014

Participation in Employment/

Apprenticeships and Learning

Apprenticeship participation has risen

by 73% from 2009/10 to 2013/14

From April 2016 the government is

abolishing employer National Insurance

Contributions for apprentices aged

under 25 thereby encouraging high

quality apprenticeships and access to

them

Participation in education, employment

or training has increased since 2011

and is currently 1% point above its peak

rate in 2008

Over the same period, the

percentage16-24 year old NEETs (Not

in Employment, Education and Training)

has declined to 2014 after its 2011

peak. At the same time, the % in

employment has risen significantly, and

the % in education or training has

remained relatively unchanged.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 2013/14

UK Apprenticeship participation 2003 - 2014

Under 19 19-24 25+

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

90%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

UK participation in education, training & employment

2008-2014

16-24 in employment, education or training 16-24 in education or training

16-24 in employment 16-24 not in employment, education and training

Source: The Data Source

ONS Labour Force Survey, 2014

Skills Shortage Vacancies and STEM

In 2013, 32% of vacancies were classified

as skills shortage vacancies; the highest

number of SSVs as a % of total vacancies

has been recorded in Skilled Trade (44%),

Professional and Associate Professional

occupations (41%), and in intermediate-

level occupations (Caring, leisure and

other service staff);

This is also against a higher proportion of

vacancies available in these occupations;

There has been an increase in STEM

apprenticeships since 2007/8, mainly at

the intermediate level. Higher Education

level STEM qualifications have also seen a

stark increase and make up the highest

number of STEM qualifications.

Advanced and higher level apprenticeship

starts, on the other hand, have seen a

sharp fall over the same time period,

however are now beginning to see a

recovery.

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

27,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

STEM Qualifications

Higher Education STEM qualifications (LHS)Intermediate Level STEM Apprenticeships (RHS)Advanced/Higher Level STEM Apprenticeships (RHS)

Source: UKCES Employer Skills Survey,

The Data Service, 2013

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Man

ager

s

Pro

fess

ion

als

Ass

oci

ate

Pro

fess

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als

Ad

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Skill

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ry J

ob

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Hard-to-Fill Vacancies

Vacancies (000's)Skill-shortage vacancies (000's) (LHS)Skill-shortage vacancies (% of total vacancies) (RHS)

LOCAL ECONOMIC CONTEXT

Plymouth

In the aftermath of a deep recession, Plymouth has shifted onto a growth path that has

seen an increased and sustained output growth exceeding the national growth rate every

year since the recession, despite it having been felt more intensely in Plymouth. This has

been the result of a positive rebalancing of the economy towards private sector growth

(8.8% since 2010) and a decline in public sector dependency (from 26.3% in 2010 to

23% in 2013).

Employment

Public Sector Private Sector Military TOTAL

PLYMOUTH 000s % 000s % 000s % 000s

2009 26.5 25.1 79.1 74.9 7.5 7.1 105.7

2010 26.9 26.3 75.3 73.7 7.8 7.7 102.2

2011 25.9 25.3 76.7 74.7 7.6 7.4 102.6

2012 24.1 23.0 80.7 77.0 6.4 6.1 104.8

2013 24.4 23.0 81.9 77.0 5.8 5.8 106.3

Ch. -2.1 -2.1 2.7 2.1 -1.7 -23.3 0.7

GREAT BRITAIN

2009 5,685.2 21.3 20,957.4 78.7 161.3 0.61 26,642.6

2010 5,945.6 22.4 20,635.7 77.6 159.7 0.60 26,581.3

2011 5,699.3 21.4 20,894.1 78.6 156.4 0.59 26,593.5

2012 5,403.1 20.2 21,349.8 79.8 152.2 0.57 26,752.9

2013 5,368.9 19.8 21,807.6 80.2 145.0 0.53 27,176.5

Ch. -316.2 -1.6 850.2 1.6 -16.3 -10.1 533.9

Source: Business Register for Employment Survey (ONS), 2013

The Defence Analytical Services and Advice (MoD), 2013

Change in jobs 2009-13

no. % no. % Brighton and Hove 9,103 7.8 Norwich 404 0.5

Wolverhampton 5,196 5.0 B&NES -1,228 -1.5

Bournemouth 5,140 7.1 Southampton 2,275 2.1

Milton Keynes 14,447 10.3 Hull -1,073 -0.9

Stoke-on-Trent 3,933 3.7 Wakefield -2,158 -1.6

Coventry 9,030 6.5 Southend-on-Sea -2,283 -3.5

Derby 3,233 2.7 Kirklees -4,686 -3.1

Peterborough 1,966 2.0 York -2,534 -2.4

Sunderland -2,840 -2.5 Doncaster -2,050 -1.8

PLYMOUTH 654 0.6 Preston -5,045 -5.8

Portsmouth -294 -0.3 Blackpool -3,737 -6.3

Plymouth has been among the top few of

the 22 Key Cities that have seen a

positive net employment growth from

2009 to 2013;

Over this period, Plymouth has seen a

contraction of its public sector, particularly

in public administration & defence

activities

This has been offset by private sector

growth, with the property/real estate

sector seeing the highest expansion

Employment

-50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0%

Real estate

Education

Public administration & defence

Health & social work

Accommodation & food

Manufacturing

Industry total

Primary industries

Construction

Transport & storage

Arts, entertainment & recreation,other

Wholesale & retail

Professional, scientific & technical

Financial & insurance

Administrative & support

Information & communication

Biggest employment gains/losses

2009-2013

% ch 2009-13 GB

% ch 2009-13

Plymouth

Source: Business Register for Employment Survey (ONS), 2013

Plymouth’s Business Base

The chart on the left shows

the sectoral make-up of

Plymouth’s business base;

An important observation

is that Plymouth’s high

value added service sectors

are underrepresented, with

the share of enterprises in

Business Services,

Advanced Manufacturing,

Professional, Scientific &

Technical, Financial &

Insurance lower than

nationally;

On the other hand,

Plymouth has a higher

cluster of enterprises in the

Advanced Engineering,

Marine & Defence, Digital

and Constructions sectors.

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Stoke-on-Trent

Southend-on-Sea

Kingston upon Hull

Calderdale and Kirklees

Sunderland

Portsmouth

Barnsley, Doncaster and…

Wolverhampton

York

Bournemouth and Poole

UK

Wakefield

Peterborough

Plymouth

Brighton and Hove

Blackpool

Derby

Milton Keynes

Bath & NES

Coventry

Southampton

2012-13 GVA growth, 22 key cities ranking

GVA

GVA per head

Output Growth

Current nominal workplace-based GVA (as at

2013) is £5.2bn, an expansion of 4.2% from

£4.9bn in 2012, and it maintains a positive

trend since the recession. The improvement

has been experienced at a rate that is

significantly above both the regional and

national growth rates of 3.2% and 3.3%,

respectively, ranked 8th (out of 22) among the

22 key cities (see chart 3 below), and highest

growth rate among all the local constituencies

within the Heart of the South West LEP, after

Somerset (4.7%).

Plymouth has shown a higher resilience to

the recession, with a quicker and more

significant recovery, as seen in chart 1 below,

recovery that appears to be now more

sustainable, despite having suffered from the

recession more than the SW or the UK on

average. This is backed up by forecasts to

2023, which show that output growth is

stabilising to around 3%.

Productivity

Within the context of the widening performance

gap between the northern and southern regions

within the country over last 10 years, Plymouth is

considered a low-performance economy, being

dominated by London’s performance. Therefore,

Plymouth’s economic story is often hidden

Plymouth’s nominal GVA per head stood at

£19,943 in 2013, 3.7% higher than in 2012 and

increasingly closing the gap with the South West

and UK (less London) averages. It is currently

94% of UK’s (less London) and 94.2% of SW’s

GVA per head. Moreover, Plymouth ranked 10th

highest out of 39 cities in terms of total change in

city ‘score’ from Pre-Crisis (2005-07) to Recovery

(2011-13).

Productivity, on the other hand, in GVA per hour

worked terms, has significantly declined following

the brief recovery from the recession in 2010/11.

However, the trend follows the national, sub-

regional and regional trend, therefore it is not

specific to Plymouth and remains significantly

above the Heart of the South West Local

Enterprise Partnership (LEP) average.

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

% pa growth Productivity measures – Annual growth 2004-

2012

GVA per hour - PLY GVA per hour - GB

GVA per FTE - PLY GVA per FTE - GB

GVA per hour (UK=100)

Milton Keynes 117 Sunderland 89

Derby 109 Wakefield 88

B&NES 105 Coventry 88

Brighton and Hove 97 York 86

Southampton 97 Leicester 84

Peterborough 96 Stoke-on-Trent 83

Bournemouth & Poole 95 Hull 81

PLYMOUTH 93 Wolverhampton 80

Portsmouth 92 Blackpool 73

Southend-on-Sea 90

Source: Regional NUTS3 GVA & Sub-regional Productivity, ONS 2013

Unemployment & Economic Inactivity

Employment has improved, and a visible

and consistent improvement in the JSA

claimant rate has been experienced

particularly since February 2013, which has

more than halved over this time period, to a

current rate of 1.8%.

APS unemployment has also declined

(from a peak of 11.9% in October 2012,

and 30.6% of those aged 16-24);

However, the figure is still persistent and

comparatively higher than that reported by

the JSA data releases: 6.6% (and 11.3%

aged 16-24) as at September 2014.

Moreover, a persistently large number of

residents claim for Employment Seekers

Allowance (ESA) and incapacity benefits,

despite the number of JSA claimants

having declined, and the total out-of-work

benefit claimant rate is a comparatively

high 16%.

Source: Annual Population Survey (APS),

Department for Work & Pensions 2014

Plymouth

All

claimants

JSA

claimants

ESA + incapacity

benefit claimants

Lone

parent

Carer

Others on income-related benefit

Disabled Bereaved

May 14 no. 26,355 3,860 13,615 2,130 2,895 645 2,925 285

% 16.00% 2.2% 8.2% 1.3% 1.8% 0.4% 1.9% 0.2%

Feb 14 no. 26,835 4,500 13,475 2,155 2,870 660 2,990 275

% 16.30% 2.6% 8.1% 1.3% 1.8% 0.4% 1.9% 0.2%

Nov 13 no. 26,605 4,295 13,415 2,155 2,780 665 2,980 315

% 16.2% 2.5% 8.1% 1.3% 1.8% 0.4% 1.9% 0.2%

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Unemployment and economic inactivity (aged 16-64) -

Plymouth vs UK, Jan 2008 - Dec 2014

Unemployment - Plymouth Economic inactivity - Plymouth

Unemployment - UK Economic inactivity - UK

Unemployment

While within the local context unemployment in the city has

fallen significantly after the recession period, Plymouth ranks

low (14/22) against the 22 key cities in terms of the greatest fall

in JSA claimant numbers;

The difficulty in keeping up the pace with other cities in

reducing unemployment in Plymouth can be largely attributed

to the city’s industrial structure, with the composition of

employment being uneven across sectors and employment

relying on just a few specialised sectors (e.g. health, education,

marine, manufacturing);

Structural changes resulting from longer-term shifts in the

pattern of labour demand across industries (e.g. decreasing

public sector dependency) may generate ‘reallocation shocks’

that lead to increases in regional unemployment as labour that

is displaced from declining industries takes time to be

absorbed into the new growing sectors of the economy (Lilien,

1982).

Source: JSA Claimant Count - ONS

-80%-60%-40%-20%0%

Blackpool

Wolverhampton

Doncaster

Kirklees

Hull

Bournemouth

Wakefield

Plymouth

Sunderland

Southend-on-Sea

Portsmouth

Norwich

Peterborough

Brighton and Hove

Coventry

Derby

Preston

Milton Keynes

Bath & NES

Stoke-on-Trent

Southampton

York

% change in JSA claimants Jan 2009-Jan 2015

Unemployment

Devonport and St Peter & the Waterfront have

seen the highest claimant rates, particularly

driven by high ESA & incapacity benefit

claimant numbers;

It is important to note that across all wards,

the number of JSA claimants represent only a

small proportion of the total number of

claimants!

Overall, the highest numbers of out-of-work

benefit claimants is concentrated in the

Western Arc of the city;

The duration of claims has declined

significantly since 2009, with a particularly

lower proportion claiming between 6-12

months;

The number of long term (1 year+) claimants

has also declined by 55% since the post-

recession unemployment peak in February

2013;

It currently stands below the national rate both

as a percentage of the working age population

and as a percentage of total claimants (0.4%,

as opposed to 0.6%, and 20.6%, as opposed

to 27.4%), at 705 claimants.

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Ranking of most deprived wards within Plymouth in

terms of out-of-work benefit claimants, May 2014

Total out-of-work benefit claimants ESA & Incapacity Benefits JSA

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan-0

9

Apr-

09

Jul-09

Oct

-09

Jan-1

0

Apr-

10

Jul-10

Oct

-10

Jan-1

1

Apr-

11

Jul-11

Oct

-11

Jan-1

2

Apr-

12

Jul-12

Oct

-12

Jan-1

3

Apr-

13

Jul-13

Oct

-13

Jan-1

4

Apr-

14

Jul-14

Oct

-14

Jan-1

5

JSA claimant rate by duration of claim

< 6 months - Plymouth 6 - 12 months - Plymouth

> 12 months - Plymouth < 6 months - UK

6 - 12 months - UK > 12 months - UK

Source: JSA Claimant Count - ONS,

Department for Work & Pensions 2014

Youth & Long-term Unemployment

Youth unemployment (aged 16-24) in terms

of JSA claimant numbers has fallen, in line

with the overall unemployment trend;

however, the total young benefit claimant

rate is a high 16% of total claimants;

This has been reflected in JSA rates which

remain stubbornly high where the 18-24

makes up a significant proportion of total

unemployment and long-term

unemployment;

Nevertheless, the duration of claims has

declined, the number of 16-24 year-olds

claiming for over 12 months being over 60%

lower than 12 months ago.

Moreover, according to the recent 2015

release of the Centre for Cities “Cities

Outlook” report, Plymouth ranked 10th

highest out of 39 cities in terms of total

change in city ‘score’ from Pre-Crisis to

Recovery. On the evidence – we have

bounced back very strongly.

Source: Department for Work & Pensions,

JSA Claimant Count (nomis), 2014

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Jan-0

9

Apr-

09

Jul-09

Oct

-09

Jan-1

0

Apr-

10

Jul-10

Oct

-10

Jan-1

1

Apr-

11

Jul-11

Oct

-11

Jan-1

2

Apr-

12

Jul-12

Oct

-12

Jan-1

3

Apr-

13

Jul-13

Oct

-13

Jan-1

4

Apr-

14

Jul-14

Oct

-14

Jan-1

5

Youth (16-24) JSA claimants by duration of claim

< 6 months - Plymouth 6 - 12 months - Plymouth

> 12 months - Plymouth < 6 months - UK

6 - 12 months - UK > 12 months - UK

Plymouth

16-24 25-49 50+

May 14 no. 4,185 13,400 8,765

% 15.9% 50.8% 33.3%

Feb 14 no. 4,405 13,625 8,800

% 16.4% 50.8% 32.8%

Nov 13 no. 4,290 13,480 8,825

% 16.1% 50.7% 33.2%

Hours-Related Underemployment

Plymouth ranked 2/22 in terms of the largest rates

of underemployment in 2011 and, with 31.4% of

the working age population working part-time, and

19.4% of those aged 16-19 & 49.

The ONS-defined underemployment rate is also a

high 13.6%, compared to the lowest rate of 8.1%

in Southend-on-Sea. This comprises those in

employment who either wish to work more hours

or are looking for an additional job or a

replacement job that offers more hours.

Both measures of part-time employment and

underemployment are based on the same sample

of the population drawn through the Labour Force

Survey (LFS) in the same year, and so the figures

are comparable.

Such a comparison shows that, despite a high

percentage of the population working part time,

when excluding the age group expected to

comprise of a high proportion of students in full-

time education and individuals close to retirement,

70% of those in part-time employment aged 16-19

& 25-49 are underemployed.

Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS - 2014

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Doncaster

Blackpool

Wakefield

Wolverhampton

Kingston-upon-…

Stoke-on-Trent

Milton Keynes

Sunderland

Coventry

Peterborough

Southend-on-Sea

Southampton

Derby

Bournemouth

Portsmouth

Kirklees

York

Plymouth

Brighton & Hove

Underemployment vs. % in employment aged 25-64 working part-time, 2011

Underemployed

% in employment working part-time - aged 16-64 less 16-24

Plymouth ranks 5/22 highest in terms of the number of employees

working under 10 hours, with 4.3% of all in employment, as

opposed to the highest (6.7%) in York and lowest (1.7%) in

Preston, on such contracts. This represents 58.4% of the total 16-

64-aged in part-time employment.

Placed within the context of specific ‘zero-hours contract’

employment figures for the UK…, which show that:

The number of people employed on a “zero-hours contract” in

their main job was 697,000 for October to December 2014,

representing 2.3% of all people in employment. In the same

period in 2013, this was 1.9% of all people in employment

(586,000).

On average, someone on a “zero-hours contract” usually

works 25 hours a week, and is more likely to be a woman, in

full-time education or working part-time, and under the age of

25 or 65 and over.

Around a third of people on “zero-hours contracts” want more

hours (are underemployed), with most wanting them in their

current job, compared with 10% of other people in

employment.

… this is a significant percentage, given that the UK rate of 2.3%

incorporating residents working over 10 hours as well, and around

25 hours on average, whereas the 4.3% rate in Plymouth refers to

only those working under 10 hours.

We would therefore expect the 1/3 ratio wanting more hours to be

higher in Plymouth, highlighting that underemployment is a

significant issue locally.

Hours-Related Underemployment

Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS - 2014

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Preston

Stoke-on-Trent

Sunderland

Doncaster

Blackpool

Milton Keynes

Wakefield

Coventry

Peterborough

Derby

Kingston-upon-…

Southend-on-Sea

United Kingdom

Portsmouth

Wolverhampton

Bournemouth

Brighton & Hove

Kirklees

Plymouth

Southampton

York

South West

Heart of the…

Norwich

Bath & NES

‘Zero-hour contract’ employment - APS, Q2 2014

% of all in employment who work under 10 hours

Average Earnings

£20,000

£21,000

£22,000

£23,000

£24,000

£25,000

£26,000

£27,000

£28,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Residence-based gross median annual wages,

2008-2014

Plymouth median UK median

£14,8

55

£17,0

34

£17,8

63

£19,4

72

£22,0

26

£27,8

17

£31,3

27

£32,8

77

£34,7

11

£0

£14,6

40

£17,8

18

£19,2

55

£20,7

36

£23,8

23

£30,9

99

£35,6

09

£38,3

59

£41,7

34

£54,0

82

£0

£10,000

£20,000

£30,000

£40,000

£50,000

£60,000

10% 20% 25% 30% 40% 60% 70% 75% 80% 90%

Residence-based gross annual wages percentiles,

2014

Plymouth

UK

The rising supply in high-skilled

employees has potentially placed a

downward pressure on high-skilled

wages, although there is no evidence

of cause and effect.

While average resident pay has risen,

this change is reflected in an increase

in the low-skilled wages, which can be

associated with a shortfall of low-

skilled residents in the city.

This is also seen in low-skilled wages

that are slightly higher than the UK

average, and high-skilled wages that

are significantly below national rates.

The second chart to the left also

shows that the pay gap between

Plymouth and the UK average widens

as one moves up the wage distribution

scale

Source: Annual Survey for Hours & Earnings, 2014

Increasing number of degree+ level

qualified and a high proportion are

employed.

Decline in the number of residents

without a qualification that is below the

UK average

However, a large proportion of the

NVQ3 and NVQ2 qualified are

unemployed, indicating a lower

demand for intermediate skills.

This is against an increase in the

supply of intermediate skills above the

UK average, which might result in a

further increase in unemployment for

these groups.

Skills Profile

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

NVQ4+ NVQ3 TradeApp'ships

NVQ2 NVQ1 Other NVQ No NVQ

Qualifications by economic activity in Plymouth, 2014

Economically inactive

Unemployed

Employed

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Qualifications change over time - Plymouth less UK, 2008 - 2014

% NVQ4+ qualified % NVQ3 qualified% NVQ2 qualified % NVQ1 qualified% with no qualifications (NVQ)Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS - 2014

CURRENT EMPLOYER DEMAND FOR

SKILLS & FUTURE SKILLS

REQUIREMENTS

Apprenticeship Vacancies by

Sector and Level

A significant number of apprenticeship vacancies have been made available in February and March 2015, indicating high demand particularly in:

Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies;

Business, Administration & Law;

Construction, Planning and the Built Environment.

While the largest proportion of vacancies have been in intermediate level apprenticeships, most being provided by Skills to Group Ltd, Babcock have also provided a significant number of advanced level apprenticeships, most of which have been filled up by April.

23

26

24 20

1 1

43

7

24

130

36

22

1 0

40 0

25

120

31

32

1 3

66

1 Health, Public Services

and Care

Engineering and

Manufacturing

TechnologiesConstruction, Planning

and the Built

EnvironmentRetail and Commercial

Enterprise

Leisure, Travel and

Tourism

Education and Training

Business, Administration

and Law

Mar-15

Feb-15

Apprenticeship Vacancies by Sector

Apr-15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Advanced Level Higher Level Intermediate Level Traineeship

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Apprenticeship Vacancies by Level

Source: Department for Work & Pensions, 2015

Apprenticeship Vacancies by

Learning Provider

The chart on the right shows that the

largest proportion of apprenticeships

have been provided by Babcock and

Skills to Group Ltd since the start of

2015;

It also shows that, except for City

College Plymouth vacancies and

Ministry of Defence vacancies, where

new vacancies could have been

advertised in April, most of the

remaining vacancies have been filled in

the 3-month period.

This is after a large number have been

advertised at the start of the year.

Apprenticeship Vacancies by Provider

0 50 100

Acacia Training And Development Ltd

Achievement Training Ltd

Babcock International Group,…

City College Plymouth

Cornwall College Business

Exeter College

Focus Training (SW) Ltd

GHQ Training

GP Strategies Training Limited

learndirect Limited

Lifetime Training Ltd

Ministry Of Defence

Paragon Skills For Industry

Positive Outcomes Ltd

Qube Qualifications And…

Skills to Group Ltd

T2 Business Solutions

Transplant Mastertrain

Work Skills Limited

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15


Average Weekly Salaries by

Sector and Level, April 2015

Average weekly wages across sectors and levels stood at £125 per week;

The highest salary offers have been provided at higher level apprenticeships, mainly in the Business, Administration and Law sector and in Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies.

Babcock have provided the highest offers, being the main provider for high level and advanced level apprenticeships.

£0 £50 £100 £150 £200

Health, Public Services and Care

Engineering and Manufacturing

Technologies

Construction, Planning and the Built

Environment

Retail and Commercial Enterprise

Leisure, Travel and Tourism

Education and Training

Business, Administration and Law

Traineeship

£0

£50

£100

£150

£200

£250

£300

£350

Advanced Level Higher Level Intermediate

Level

Traineeship

Average weekly wages by sector

Average weekly wages by sector


Public sector dependency still high,

Health, Education and Public

Administration & Defence being the

main sources of employment and

main demanders of high skills.

Demand for low and intermediate

skills comes mainly from the private

sector, particularly Manufacturing

and Retail, and is higher in Plymouth

than on average across the UK

Source: BRES - nomis, 2014

Current Skills Demand

18.8

15.1

12.8 11.8

7.3

6.6

5.3

4.7

4 3.9

3.3 2.1 2.1 1.4

13.5

15.8

9.5

8.5 7.0

4.8

8.4

4.4

5

7.9

4.4 3.7

1.7 4.0

Top sectors sustaining the economy - % of total employment, 2013

Health

Wholesale & Retail

Education

Manufacturing



Business administration &supportTransport & storage

Arts, entertainment, recreation &otherProfessional, scientific &technicalConstruction

Financial & Insurance

Property

Plymouth

GB

Top 5 sectors in terms of employment growth – Plymouth TTWA

No. of employees (rounded)

% all Plymouth employees

% change 2012-2013

Absolute change 2012-13

Property 2,700 1.90% 18.90% 424

Motor trades 3,000 2.10% 16.00% 417

Health 25,400 17.90% 11.30% 2,574

Construction 5,600 4.00% 10.80% 546

Financial & insurance 2,500 1.80% 5.90% 142

Education 17,700 12.50% 5.90% 981

Totals 56,900 40.0% 11.50% 5084

TOTAL EMPLOYEES 142,200 100% 1.80% 2,600

(all industries)

Demand for graduates

is higher than in

London and the East of

England

Source: UKCES, National Employers’ Skills Survey, 2013

A high number of local

firms are employing

graduates.

Current Skills Demand

School, college or university leavers recruited in the last 2-3 years

Cornwall and the Isles

of Scilly

Heart of the

South West

Plymouth

Yes - 16 year olds recruited to first job from school 10% 8% 9%

Yes - 17 or 18 year olds recruited to first job from school 11% 10% 18%

Yes - 17 or 18 year olds recruited to first job from FE College 13% 14% 20%

Yes - Recruited to their first job from University or other Higher Education institution 12% 9% 20%

No, have not recruited education leavers 71% 73% 57%

Don't know 1% 1% 1%

Any 28% 25% 42%

Future skills requirements to be seen mainly

in high- and low-skilled occupations if current

trends continue*

Demand for high skills is expected to

increase along with a growth in high-level

employment, mainly for occupations such as

managers and senior officials, associate

professional and technical occupations, and

professional occupations...

... as well as for low skills, required in

elementary occupations and sales and

customer service occupations.

A decline to 2030 expected to be seen in

some low- and intermediate-skills

occupations, particularly in process, plant

and machinery operatives and administrative

and secretarial occupations.

*Note: these are baseline projections based on trends seen

over the past 5 years; they are not forecasts, and expected

future macroeconomic changes could shift this baseline

projection. Source: BRES, nomis

Oxford Economics Forecasting Model, 2014

Future Skills Requirements

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

Managers and senior officials

Professional occupations

Associate professional andtechnical occupations

Administrative and secretarialoccupations

Skilled trades occupations

Personal services occupations

Sales and customer serviceoccupations

Process, plant and machineoperatives

Elementary occupations

Employment growth and occupational structure, 2012 to 2030

% of total 2030 % of total 2012 % growth 2012-2030

Changing Industrial Structure

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Primary industries


Wholesale

Motor trades

Property

Financial & Insurance

Construction


Arts, entertainment, recreation &…

Transport & storage

Business administration & support



Retail

Manufacturing

Education

Health

Key employment sectors supporting

Plymouth's economy, 2009 vs. 2013

2013

2009

The main sectors of

employment sustaining the

economy are Health and

Education, despite public sector

dependency having fallen.

These sectors have also seen

the highest growth since 2009.

Retail and manufacturing,

however, are also significant

contributors. Nevertheless, the

manufacturing sector is

expected to contract

significantly (by around 23%).

Source: BRES – nomis, 2014

Changing Industrial Structure

The Health sector will continue

growing, by 8.3%; employment in the

Education and Public Administration

& Defence sectors, however, is

expected to decline, therefore public

sector dependency will further

reduce.

At the same time, private sector

employment, mainly experienced in

Real Estate, Professional, Scientific

& Technical services, Construction

and Information & Communication,

will see a large expansion of around

32%, 27%, 23% and 21%,

respectively. The creative industries

(16%) and accommodation & food

(11%) will also see significant

growth.

The manufacturing sector, however,

is expected to contract*.

Source: Oxford Economics Forecasting Model, 2014

32.0

26.7

22.7

21.0

18.6

15.7

10.9

8.3

4.7

3.7

1.4

-0.4

-5.1

-11.4

-14.5

-23.1

-23.1

-23.1

-23.1

-23.1

-40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

Real estate


Construction


Administration and support service

Arts, entertainment and recreation & other


Health & social work

Transport & storage

Total

Retail & Wholesale

Financial & insurance

Education


Primary industries

Aerospace

Marine

Manufacturing

Advanced manufacturing (exc aerospace & marine)

Food, drink & tobacco & other

Key sectors of overall employment growth 2013 to 2030

UK HotSW Plymouth

CURRENT SUPPLY OF SKILLS

Young people unemployed/NEET

16 – 18 Year-Old NEETs

The number of 16-18 year olds Not

in Employment, Education or

Training (NEET) has been falling

since 2013, after reaching a high,

and it remains below the national

rate.

78%

79%

79%

80%

80%

81%

81%

82%

82%

83%

83%

84%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2012 2013 2014

% in

learn

ing

% N

EE

T &

NK

% NEET Plymouth % NEET England % in learning Plymouth

16-18-year old NEETs, Plymouth - April 2012 - 2014

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

NEET % NK% In learning %

% 16-18 year old NEETs, Plymouth - June 2014

Year 14

Year 13

Year 12

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

Plymouth

Portsmouth

Torbay

Southampton

Telford and Wrekin

Peterborough

Southend-on-Sea

Bournemouth

Rotherham

Sheffield

Isle of Wight

Academic Age16-18 (Y12-Y14) NEET %

Source: Department for Education, 2014

18 - 24 Year-Old Unemployed

Economic activity of Plymouth HEI leavers HE provider Activity

Unemployed Other activity* Total %

2012/13

University of Plymouth 450 5,980 6,430 7.0%

University of St Mark and St John 25 695 725 3.4%

2011/12

University of Plymouth 490 6,025 6,510 7.5%

University of St Mark and St John 30 725 755 4.0%

Economic activity of all full-

time students ALL

QUALIFICATIONS

No

qualifications Level 1 Level 2 Apprenticeship Level 3 Level 4+

Other

qualifications

ALL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 24,527 1,382 2,619 4,904 128 11,648 3,226 620

Economically active: Total 8,892 215 922 2,165 88 4,085 1,267 150

In employment: total 6,753 136 586 1,603 75 3,173 1,073 107

Self-employed 232 15 24 32 10 65 75 11

Unemployed 2,139 79 336 562 13 912 194 43

Economically inactive 15,635 1,167 1,697 2,739 40 7,563 1,959 470

*’Other’ includes: in full-time employment; in part-time employment; due to start a job in the

next month; engaged in full-time further study, training or research; engaged in part-time further

study, training or research; taking time out in order to travel, other.

Sources: 2011 Census of Population, nomis

Destination of Leavers, 2011/12, 2012/13 – The Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA)

CURRENT SUPPLY OF SKILLS (2)

Young people in education or training

Participation in Education,

Training and Employment

4,580

4,600

4,620

4,640

4,660

4,680

4,700

4,720

4,740

4,760

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2011 2012 2013

FE

WB

L

Work-based learning (WBL) Full-time education (FE)

Participation in education and work-based learning of 16&17-year olds

Participation in full-time education and work-based

learning for the 16 and 17 year-olds has also declined.

However, significantly more 18-year olds have gone

into education in 2014, pushing the overall 16-18-year

old % in learning from below 80% to 83%, whilst the

number of 16 & 17-year olds in FE has been falling.


Participation in Education


Participation amongst those under the

age of 19 is particularly low and less

than half of the 19+ rate;

Level 2 and English & Maths have seen

the highest participation rates;

However, overall, participation has

declined significantly over time; the fall

experienced in Plymouth has been more

gradual, taking place just after a

pre-recession high, whereas the UK

has seen a more sudden and significant

decline starting in 2011, after a

consistent increase since 2006.

Moreover, participation rates in

Plymouth are higher than the UK

average, particularly so in Plymouth

Moor View, as opposed to Sutton and

Devonport.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Full Level 2 Full Level 3 English & Maths

Participation by level and age, 2013/14

Under 19 19+ All ages

900,000

920,000

940,000

960,000

980,000

1,000,000

1,020,000

1,040,000

1,060,000

1,080,000

1,100,000

1,120,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500England Plymouth Participation, 2005/06 - 2013/14

Plymouth Moor ViewPlymouth Sutton and DevonportEngland

GCSE Performance

After a consistent increase between 2008

and 2013, GCSE performance has now

fallen significantly*; nevertheless, it still

remains an improvement from the 2008/09

performance;


0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

% achieving 5+ A*-C grades inc. English & Maths

GCSEs Plymouth SW England

There was a clear gap between the

proportion of pupils that have achieved 5+

A*-C grades (inc. Maths & English) in

Plymouth and that across England, but the

gap has now almost closed, but the

proportion is now below the SW average

after briefly exceeding it in academic year

2012/13;

Despite the recent fall in performance,

Plymouth ranks 10 out of the 22 key cities,

being just 7%pts below York’s average and

around 15%pts above the lowest average.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

% achieving 5+ A*-C grades inc English & Maths GCSEs - 22 key cities ranking 2012/13

2013/14 2012/13

Level 2 and 3 Attainment

Attainment at levels 2 and 3 by the age of 19

has seen a consistent rise since 2005;

Plymouth’s attainment rate at level 2 has

closed the gap with the national average,

however level 3 attainment rate is yet to

achieve that, despite having risen in line with

that at level 2;

This is now to around 48% of pupils for level 3

and 85% for level 2; 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

L2 a

ttain

men

t gap

(p

pts

)

% a

ttain

ing L

2

Attainment and attainment gap between those

eligible and not eligible for FSM at Level 2 by age

19, 2005 -2013

Plymouth SW EnglandAttainment gap - Plymouth Attainment gap - SW Attainment gap - England

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

L3 a

ttain

men

t gap

(p

pts

)

% a

ttain

ing L

3

Attainment and attainment gap between those

eligible and not eligible for FSM at Level 3 by age

19, 2005 - 2013

Plymouth SW England

Attainment gap - Plymouth Attainment gap - SW Attainment gap - England


There is a clear attainment gap, however, at both

levels, between those eligible for free school

meals (FSM) and those that aren’t; This has been

as high as around 30% for both levels in 2006,

but has now almost halved for those at level 2;

At level 3, the gap has only declined by around

5%pts; however, this is a significant change

placed within the context of a national and

regional attainment gap that has remained

roughly the same over the 7-year period.

Post-16 Provision

Delivered Through

Schools & Colleges

Plymouth Secondary Schools

Source: School Autumn Census 14/15

SCHOOL TYPE NUMBERS ON ROLL 2014/15

All Saints Academy Plymouth Academy 892

Coombe Dean School Academy 1037

Devonport High School for Boys Academy (Grammar) 1164

Devonport High School for Girls Academy (Grammar) 835

Eggbuckland Community College Academy Trust Academy 1078

Hele’s School Academy 1254

Lipson Co-operative Academy Academy 1206

Marine Academy Plymouth Academy 870

Notre Dame RC School Academy 804

Plymouth High School for Girls LA Maintained (Grammar) 803

Plymstock School Academy 1569

Ridgeway School Academy 859

Sir John Hunt Community Sports College LA Maintained 795

St Boniface Catholic College Academy 652

Stoke Damerel Community College Academy 1439

Tor Bridge High Academy 1204

UTC Plymouth University Technical College Academy 196 (Years 10-13 only)

Plymouth School of Creative Arts Free School 120 (Year 7 only so far)

Plymouth Studio School Free School Opens 2015/16

EFA 16-18 Places & Funding

Source: EFA

Source: School Autumn Census 14/15

Plymouth Schools – On roll

2014/15

• School places have remained fairly stable across the last 3 years, however

funding has declined in line with EFA moves to equalise School/FE funding

• FE places have increased over the last 3 years

• The volume of young people moving in to post-16 declines until 2019 when

population levels begin to increase again

Provider 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

SCHOOL 3,833 3,846 3,870 £18.5M £19.2M £18.7M

FE 3,438 3,624 3,862 £16.1M £16.4M £17.1M

TOTAL 7,271 7,470 7,732 £34.6M £35.6M £35.8M

Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11

2,694 2,602 2,631 2,749 2,818

School Sixth Form & FE Core Aims

Source: EFA 2014

Post-16 provision is

predominantly at level 3

There is a slight increase in

level 3 provision over the

three year period with

declines evident at level 1

and level 2

Vocational provision which

had increased between 11/12

and 12/13 is now in decline

Academic provision appears

to be reasonably stable

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Entry 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3

Residents of Plymouth LA – Core Aim Level

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Residents of Plymouth LA – Core Aim Type

Academic Vocational

Destination of 16-year olds

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Plymouth Year 11 Cohort Activity

Staying at School

FE College

Apprenticeship

Other

Approximately two thirds of 16 year olds remain at School

Between 20% and 25% of 16 year olds transfer to FE Colleges

Around 4% of 16 year olds start an Apprenticeship

Source: CSW Statistical Reports 2014

Priority Sectors for Plymouth L1

Level 1 provision has

declined significantly from

2012/13 to 2013/14

Source: EFA 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300Residents of Plymouth – Core Aim – Level 1

2011/12 2012/13

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

FE S6F FE S6F FE S6F

Business Services 4 0 9 0 2 0

Arts, Media & Publishing 28 0 14 0 2 6

Engineering & Manufacturing Technologies 79 51 99 65 42 52

Health, Public Services & Care 122 3 157 0 17 0

Leisure, Travel & Tourism 32 10 35 3 13 0

Construction 184 54 199 75 61 29

ICT 0 12 3 0 3 0



significantly declined in

Construction from

2012/13 to 2013/14

Source: EFA 2014

020406080

100120140160180200

Residents of Plymouth – Core Aim – Level 2

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14







Construction 77 43 103 45 23 21

ICT 27 28 14 14 6 29


There is a lot less level 3

provision for Engineering &

Manufacturing Technologies

and Construction compared

to level 1 and 2

Provision for Arts, Media &

Publishing greatly

increases at level 3

Source: EFA 2014

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

Residents of Plymouth – Core Aim – Level 3

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14







Construction 11 0 28 0 17 0

ICT 44 130 46 175 36 138

CURRENT SUPPLY OF SKILLS (3)

Young people in employment

Young People on Their First Job


Employer’s perception of young people’s preparedness for work on their

first job leaving education is that 16-year old school leavers and University

leavers are either very well or well prepared.

17-18 year old school leavers, however, tend to be less prepared for work.

The highest percentage of ‘very well prepared’ leavers are the University

graduates

At the opposite end are the 17-18-year olds on their first job from school

that are the least prepared or ‘very poorly prepared’

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Very wellprepared

Well prepared Poorly prepared Or very poorlyprepared

Varies too muchto say

Very well/wellprepared

Poorly/very poorlyprepared

Preparedness for work of young education leavers on their first job

16-year old from school 17-18-year old from school 17-18-year old from FE college From University or other HEI

Around 22% of the Plymouth University

and the University of St Mark & St John

graduates are being retained in the city,

with the highest proportion from the

Health, Biological Science, and

Education subject areas, and a high

proportion of them have gone into

subject-related jobs (i.e. Health &

Education).

The destination of employment of the

remaining graduates, however, has not

necessarily matched their qualifications

and a lot of them are underemployed,

working in Retail; the greatest

proportion of them, nevertheless, work

in the Education sector, despite coming

from other backgrounds;

Health and Biological Sciences

graduates are most likely to secure

subject-related employment.

Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency, 2014

Destination of HE Leavers

116 99

78 125

15

109 91

16 21

86 96

31 47

103 129

86 79

200 212

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2011/12 2012/13

Education

Creative arts & design

Historical & philosophical studies

Languages

Mass communications &documentationBusiness & administrative studies

Law

Social studies

Architecture, building & planning

Engineering & technology

Computer science

Mathematical sciences

Physical sciences

Agriculture & related subjects

Graduate retention

21.3% 22%

271

245

134 128 124 120

81

51 47 41

28 17

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2011/12 2012/13

Education

Retail trade, except of motorvehicles and motorcycles

Human health activities

Food and beverage serviceactivities

Public administration anddefence; compulsory socialsecurityArchitectural and engineeringactivities; technical testing andanalysisSocial work activities withoutaccommodation

Employment activities

Sports activities andamusement and recreationactivities

Destination of University leavers

STEM HE Provision

STEM course provision at

Plymouth University represents

41.2% of total provision;

STEM graduates make up 39.3% of

all PU graduates employed in

Plymouth, and 47.2% of all other

PU graduates.

STEM

The highest make up of these

graduates are from a background

in Medicine and related, and

Engineering & Technology

Destination of STEM HE

Graduates The chart on the left shows

the destination of graduates

in the five STEM courses at

PU into employment in

Plymouth following academic

year 2012/13;

Medicine & related, and

Engineering & Technology

graduates have been the

highest proportion to secure

subject-related employment

in the city;

On the other hand, the most

other graduates across the

five subject areas have gone

into Education;

Concerningly, a significant

proportion of graduates

particularly in Computer

Science, Physical Science and

Mathematical Science have

gone into Retail after

graduation.

Lack of working/life experience or

maturity main skill gap

Although the vast majority of young

graduates, particularly University

leavers, are seen to be either ‘well’ or

‘very well’ prepared for work, and

very few skills gaps have been

identified for this group...

... 17-18 year old school leavers and

FE college leavers on their first job

have been reported to:

Lack a working world and life

experience or maturity required in the

workplace

Have a poor education or lack of

numeracy/literacy

Lack common sense

16 year olds appear better prepared

for the world of work compared to 17-

18 year olds Source: UKCES, National Employers’ Skills Survey, 2013

Skills Gaps

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Lack required skills or competencies

Literacy/numeracy skills

Poor education

Lack of common sense

Poor attitude / personality or lack ofmotivation

Lack of working world / life experience ormaturity

None / recruits not poorly prepared

Poor education/lack of numeracy/literacy

Poor education/lack ofnumeracy/literacy/other

Skills lacking among young education leavers on their first job

From University or other HEI 17-18-year old from FE college

17-18-year old from school 16-year old from school

The main skills that need improving,

identified in occupations with skills

gaps are:

- Planning and organisation skills

(59%)

- Technical/practical or job-specific

skills (57%)

- Team working skills (49%)

- Problem solving skills (40%)

- Customer handling skills (37%)

Over half of employers have, therefore,

reported soft and practical/job-specific

skills as the main skills that need

improving, suggesting that employees

are generally literate and numerate and

core skills are suitably developed for

work.


Skills Gaps

25% 27%

37%

33%

46%

41% 7% 49%

59%

33%

25%

25%

60% 2% 7%

16% 16%

35%

26%

38%

40%

8% 42%

50%

24%

22%

22%

52%

4% 9%

16% 7%

39%

25%

37%

49%

2%

40% 59%

25%

26%

34%

57%

1% 3%

Skills that need improving in all occupations with skills gaps

Basic computer literacy / using IT

Advanced IT or software skills

Oral communication skills

Written communication skills

Customer handling skills

Team working skills

Foreign language skills

Problem solving skills

Planning and Organisation skills

Strategic Management skills

Numeracy skills

Literacy skills

Technical or practical skills or Job specificskills

Personal attributes (e.g. motivation, workethos, common sense, initiative, reliability,commitment, punctuality, flexibility)*

Plymouth

HotSW

C & IoS

Skills Gaps by Occupation

Skills gaps are mainly occurring in

low- and intermediate - level jobs,

and are higher than the HotSW and

C&IoS rates;

However, while a low proportion of

employers have reported skills gaps

in high-level occupations such as

managers or associate

professionals, a significant 17%

have identified gaps in professional

occupations , a proportion also

above the regional rates;

The main causes for skills gaps

have been highlighted as staff being

new to the role and having not

completed their training, appropriate

training not being provided, and a

lack of motivation.


Skills gaps per job Plymouth

Heart of the South West

Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly

Managers 3% 3% 3%

Professionals 17% 10% 10%

Associate professionals 0% 9% 11%

Administrative/clerical staff 5% 6% 5%

Skilled trades 22% 11% 10%

Caring, leisure and other services staff 20% 15% 14%

Sales/customer service staff 15% 12% 15%

Machine operatives 18% 13% 14%

Elementary staff 15% 14% 14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

The development of new products and service

The introduction of new working practices

The introduction of new technology

They are new to the role

They have not received the appropriate training

Their training is currently only partially completed

They have been on training but their performance has…

Unable to recruit staff with the required skills

Problems retaining staff

Staff lack motivation

Lack of other skills e.g. communication, interpersonal*

Lack of aptitude to do job/reached maximum…

Non-work related problems e.g. health or personal…

Language barrier - English not first language*

Staff are too old to carry out the work required*

Other

New to the role/training not complete

Transient skills gaps

Causes of skills gaps for occupations that were followed up

Plymouth

Heart of the South West

Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly

Just below 70% of employers within

Plymouth have reported an impact of

skills gaps on their business

performance, with almost 20% seeing

a major impact. This is around 10%

above those across the HotSW and

Cornwall & IoS LEPs.

Skills gaps lead to:

- increased workload for other staff

- higher operating costs

- difficulties introducing new

working practices

- losing business/orders to

competitors

Impact of skills gaps


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Yes - major impactYes - minor impact No Any impact

Do skills gaps impact on how business performs?

Cornwall and the Isles of ScillyHeart of the South WestPlymouth

22%

18%

26%

28%

24%

50%

9%

42%

15%

12%

21%

31%

25%

50%

8%

43%

21%

9%

20%

36%

30%

57%

9%

36%

Implications of skills gaps Lose business or ordersto competitors

Delay developing newproducts or services

Have difficulties meetingquality standards

Have higher operatingcosts

Have difficultiesintroducing new workingpracticesIncrease workload forother staff

C & IoS

HotSW

Plymouth

4415

3548 3868

4782

413

5092

823

3387 3078

3320

3879

612

4097

785

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Supervision toensure that

employees areguided throughtheir job role

over time

Providedopportunities

for staff tospend time

learning through

watching othersperform their

job

Allowed staff toperform tasks

that go beyondtheir strict job

role and

providing themwith feedback

Any broaderdevelopment

activties

None of thesebroader

developmentactivities


activties or onor off the job

training


activities but noon or off job

training

Plymouth

Portsmouth

• The chart above shows the actions that employers across Plymouth and Portsmouth have taken to

support their employees development in the workplace;

• Plymouth employers tend to engage more in broader development activities than Portsmouth

employers

• Main activities include on or off the job training, supervision to ensure that employees are guided

through their job role over time, or have allowed their staff to perform tasks that go beyond their

strict job role and provide them with feedback;

• Just under 20% of employers in Plymouth have not engaged in any training or other development

activities.

Actions Taken to Aid Development of Employees


0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Lack of funds for training /training expensive

Can't spare more staff time (having themaway on training)

Staff now fully proficient /don't need it

Staff not keen

A lack of good local training providers

Lack of provision (e.g. courses are full up)

Difficulty finding training providers who candeliver training where or when we want it

A lack of appropriate training /qualificationsin the subject areas we need

Hard to find the time to organise training

Lack of knowledge about trainingopportunities and/or suitable courses

Decisions taken at head office

Staff turnover

Training not a management priority

Other

Portsmouth

Plymouth

Barriers to Providing More Training

• The main barriers to providing more on or

off the job training are:

A lack of funds for training/training

expensive

Can’t spare more staff time (having them

away on training)

Hard to find the time to organise training

• A high proportion of Portsmouth employers

also believe that training is not a

management priority; however, for

Plymouth employers, this is one of the least

significant barriers;

• It is important to note that a very low

percentage of Plymouth employers have

stated that their staff do not needed and are

fully proficient as a reason for not investing

in more training.


Apprenticeships Plymouth

Apprenticeship Starts

Source: SFA Learner Cube 2014

5 sectors dominate with over 93% of all starts

Except for Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies, all top sectors have seen a decline in

starts from 2012/13 to 2013/14

Of particular note is the Business, Administration and Law sector

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Starts in Top 10 Sectors - Plymouth All Ages

2012/13

2013/14

Apprenticeship Starts

Source: HM Government, Local Education Authority: Plymouth, 2014

Apprenticeship enrolments have

been dropping significantly after

reaching a peak in 2012;

In 2013/14, most starts have

occurred at the intermediate level

amongst those under 19;

Adult apprenticeship starts are also

mainly at the intermediate level, and

are not far below the number of

starts below the age of 19;

Most enrolments are concentrated in

Business, Administration & Law and

Engineering & Manufacturing.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2005/062006/072007/082008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/14

SW, England Plymouth Apprenticeship starts all ages, 2005-2014

Plymouth South West England

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Intermediate LevelApprenticeship

Advanced LevelApprenticeship

HigherApprenticeship

All Apprenticeships

Apprenticeship starts by level and age group, 2013/14

Under 19 19-24 25+ All Ages

Apprenticeship Starts by Sector

and Level

The number of

apprenticeship starts has

declined significantly after

having peaked in 2012;

This can be seen across all

sectors except for

constructions and health;

Moreover, most

apprenticeships in 2013/14

have been seen mainly in

the under 19 age group and

at the intermediate level and

19-24 at the advanced level.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Business, Administration & Law

Engineering & Manufacturing Tech

Health, Public Services & Care

Construction, Planning & the Built Env

Leisure, Travel & Tourism

ICT

Arts, Media & Publishing

Apprenticeship Starts by Sector

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Intermediate Level

Apprenticeship

Advanced Level

Apprenticeship

Higher

Apprenticeship

All

Apprenticeships

Under 19 19-24 25+ All Ages

Apprenticeship Starts by Level and Age Group,

2013/14

Source: HM Government, Local Education Authority: Plymouth, 2014

Priority Apprenticeship Sectors

Source: SFR, DFE

16-18

Increased demand for

Health/Engineering/Construction across the 4

years

Retail is holding steady

Decline in demand for Business Admin & Law

All Starts

Strong demand in Business Admin & Law until

2012, now in decline

Health & Engineering have shown growth over

the period, other areas have remained

reasonably steady

Source: SFA Learner Cube

219 251 199 169

164 229

172 231

151

137

153 151

119 97

150 131

114 122

121 130

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Top Five Apprenticeship enrolments by Sector 16-18

Health, Public Services &Care

Construction, Planning & theBuilt Env

Retail & CommercialEnterprise

Engineering &Manufacturing Tech

Business, Administration &Law

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

All Plymouth Apprenticeship Starts by Priority Sectors


Engineering & Manufacturing Tech


Construction, Planning & the Built Env


ICT


Providers delivering Apprenticeships

in Plymouth by volume 2013/14

Source: SFA Delivery Cube 2014

2013/14

PROVIDERS Inter Adv High TOTAL

City College Plymouth 298 185 1 484

Skills to Group Limited 287 77 364

Achievement Training Ltd 103 90 193

Acacia Training & Development Ltd

81 67 5 153

Marr Corporation Limited 71 54 21 146

EQL Solutions Limited 138 1 139

Exeter College 79 53 4 136

Focus Training (SW) Limited 86 44 1 131

GHQ Training Limited 83 44 127

Babcock Training Ltd 92 22 114

Lifetime Training Group Limited 76 28 104

Learndirect Ltd 56 37 93

Elmfield Training Ltd 56 56

2013/14

PROVIDERS Inter Adv High TOTAL

GP Strategies Training Limited 25 29 1 55

Cornwall College 51 1 52

Paragon Education & Skills Ltd 41 10 51

CITB 36 11 47

New College Swindon 35 7 42

Hit Training Ltd 25 2 27

West Nottinghamshire College 7 14 21

Plymouth College of Art 1 19 20

Education & Training Skills Ltd 2 8 5 15

Serco Limited 13 2 15

Eastleigh College 7 1 8

First4Skills Limited 5 2 7

Sussex Coast College Hastings 5 5

Other 276 78 11 365

Engineering & Manufacturing

Technologies

Engineering

Manufacturing Technologies

Transportation Operations & Maintenance


Technologies


Significantly greater

provision at level 2 than at

level 3

Level 3 shows growth from

2012/13 into 2013/14; this is

predominantly in the lower

age ranges

The decline in level 2

provision is for the 25+ age

group (likely to be linked to

funding), while starts among

the 16-18 year olds has

seen a particularly notable

increase.

127 147

45 84

43

53

44

92

210 138

39

21

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Intermediate -2012/13


Advanced - 2012/13 Advanced - 2013/14

Plymouth Apprenticeship Starts

25+

19-24

16-18


Technologies

Source: SFA Learner Cube, 2014

Provision at the two

local FE Colleges has

grown from 2012/13 to

2013/14

There are a number of

providers outside of the

area delivering provision

in this sector

Significant growth at

level 3 at City College

Plymouth

Cornwall College shows

growth at level 2

Provision at Skills to

Group Ltd has declined

0

50

100

150

200

250

Plymouth Apprenticeship Starts by Provider

2012/13

2013/14

020406080

100120140

Plymouth Apprenticeship Starts By Level & Provider

2012/13 Inter 2012/13 Adv 2013/14 Inter 2013/14 Adv

Construction, Planning & the

Built Environment

Building & Construction


Built Env



remained steady, with an

increase in 19-24 year old

starts almost compensating

for the decline in adult

apprenticeship starts (25+)


declined across all age

ranges;

Of note is the halving in the

number of apprenticeship

starts within the 16-18 age

group.

114 115

36 16

49 52

37

28

15 6

11

1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Intermediate - 2012/13 Intermediate - 2013/14 Advanced - 2012/13 Advanced - 2013/14


25+

19-24

16-18


Built Environment


There are three significant

providers in the City

CITB and Skills to Group

Ltd have grown provision

between 2012/13 and

2013/14

Provision at City College

has declined in this

period, yet it remains one

of the main providers of

constructions and building

apprenticeships and other


grown at Skills to Group

Ltd

Level 3 provision is in

decline apart from CITB

where there is a slight

increase

020406080

100120140


2012/13

2013/14

0102030405060708090

100

Plymouth Apprenticeship Starts by Provider & Level

2012/13 Inter

2012/13 Adv

2013/14 Inter

2013/14 Adv


Crafts, Creative Art & Design

Media & Communication



This is a sector with

significantly fewer starts

Provision in this sector

is dominated by Schools

and FE Colleges

Most starts have been

seen at the advanced

level;

Moreover, they have

mainly been dominated

by the 16-18 age group

in 2012/13, and by the

19-24 age group in

2013/14

1 1

5

1

4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6



Advanced - 2012/13 Advanced - 2013/14


25+

19-24

16-18



Delivery in this sector

is dominated by FE

Colleges

There is more level 3

provision in this

sector

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Plymouth College ofArt

Exeter College City CollegePlymouth

Creative Process


2012/13

2013/14

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Plymouth College ofArt

Exeter College City CollegePlymouth

Creative Process


2012/13 Inter

2012/13 Adv

2013/14 Inter

2013/14 Adv


Nursing & subjects & vocations allied to Medicine

Health & Social Care

Public Services

Child Development & Wellbeing



There is significant

provision in this

sector

Level 2 provision

has increased

marginally

Level 3 provision

has declined in the

25+ age range

(likely to be linked

to funding)

Level 4 provision is

growing (from a

low start point)

89 95

32 35

148 131

114 126

1 2

174 200

185 120

4 28 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450



Advanced -2012/13

Advanced -2013/14

Higher -2012/13

Higher -2013/14


25+

19-24

16-18



01020304050607080


2012/13 Inter

2012/13 Adv

2012/13 High

2013/14 Inter

2013/14 Adv

2013/14 High

Significant number of providers

operating in this sector (Local &

National)

Marr Corp and Skills to Group

Ltd provision has grown

significantly between 2012/13

and 2013/14

Level 4 provision

predominantly delivered

through Marr Corp

0

50

100

150

200


2012/13

2013/14

Information & Communication

Technology

ICT for Practitioners

ICT for Users


Tech


This is a sector with

relatively few starts

Provision in this sector

is dominated by

Schools and FE

Colleges

There is a decline in

both level 2 and level 3

provision

A significantly higher

proportion of the starts

compared to other

sectors are adult

apprenticeship starts

(25+)

7

2

8 10

4

2

4

10

4

8

16 3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



25+

19-24

16-18


Tech

02468

1012141618


2012/13 Inter

2012/13 Adv

2013/14 Inter

2013/14 Adv


Achievement Training

Ltd is the main provider

in this sector

Provision at Achievement

at level 2 is growing,

level 3 provision has

declined

05

1015202530


2012/13

2013/14


Sport, Leisure & Recreation

Travel & Tourism



This is a sector with relatively few starts

Provision in this sector is dominated by Schools and FE Colleges

Level 2 provision is growing in the 16-18 and 19-24 age ranges

There is a decline in level 3 provision across all age ranges

14

24 16

4

18

24

9

5

4

4

7

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60



25+

19-24

16-18


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Achievement

Training

Limited

Babcock

Training

Limited

Institute of

Swimming

Limited

League

Football

Education

Lifetime

Training

Group

Limited

Plymouth

City Council

Skills to

Group

Limited

Other


2012/13 Inter

2012/13 Adv

2013/14 Inter

2013/14 Adv


Significant increase

in provision delivered

by Skills to Group

Ltd

Provision through

other providers has

declined

General decline

in level 3

provision

Level 2

provision has

grown,

particularly at

Skills to Group

Ltd

0

5

10

15

20

25


2012/13

2013/14


Accounting & Finance

Administration

Business Management

Marketing & Sales

Law & Legal Services



Largest sector in Plymouth

Declining provision in all levels and ages

Small amount of level 4 provision mainly linked to Accountancy/Management

171 146

23 22 5 1

238 206

108 103 14 8

269

153

272

71

23 10

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800



Advanced -2012/13

Advanced -2013/14

Higher -2012/13

Higher -2013/14


25+

19-24

16-18


0

20

40

60

80

100

120


2012/13 Inter

2012/13 Adv

2012/13 High

2013/14 Inter

2013/14 Adv

2013/14 High


Significant number of

providers operating in

this sector (Local &

National)

Predominant

providers are City

College Plymouth,

JHP Group, Focus

Training and Serco

Limited

020406080

100120140160180


2012/13

2013/14

Summary

Falling (youth) unemployment rates below the UK rate

Bounced back strongly from the recession

Demand for both low- and high-level skills expected to rise in line with employment

Construction sector skills demand expected to see great expansion to 2030

Skilled population with 34.7% NVQ4+ qualified workers and only 3.5% with no

qualifications

Only 22% of graduates are retained in the city, mainly Health & Biological Sciences,

and Education graduates

Significant skills gaps concentrated in existing low-level jobs

Decreasing proportion of vocational learning and apprenticeship starts

Main reported employability and skills gaps are in planning & organisation skills and

technical/practical or job-related skills.

Any questions or feedback, please contact Adriana Curca in Economy & Employment,

Economic Development, Plymouth City Council: [email protected] or

01752 308688.

mailto:[email protected]

Plymouth Skills Analysis · 2008 and Q2 2009, contraction that is twice as deep as that experienced...

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