Pluribus vc hgs mkt overview
-
Upload
timothy-bernard-jones -
Category
Business
-
view
435 -
download
2
Transcript of Pluribus vc hgs mkt overview
Pluribus Capital Management
�Invest in those technologies, services and companies that will improve Homeland, Global and Corporate Security
while delivering high returns for investors�
Homeland and Global Security A new growth market
The Homeland and Global Security(HGS) market is defined as: The technologies, products, and services required by the Private
and Public sectors in order to ensure the normal operation and continuity of commerce, infrastructure services, transportation, logistics and communication in the case of :
Terrorism, Espionage and Sabotage Natural Disasters Radiological/Biological/Chemical agent outbreaks and attacks Cybercrime Cataclysmic events and outages
What�s the economic opportunity?
Prior to Sept 11, US spent $10B/year on homeland security
After Sept 11, that number has increased to $40B/year with a 5-10% growth rate/year
In June 2004 DHS awarded US-VISIT(biometric customs screening) contract $10B To a single company(Accenture)
Large HGS Market Size*
In a recent report by Equity International, public sector homeland security spending (federal, state, local) in the United States is projected to rise to $55.9 billion during 2004 and to $56.8 billion in 2005
In the UK, 93% of businesses with over $1B in revenue polled believe that terrorism will increase over the next 2 years as a result of the Iraq war, and that their operations will be affected somehow**
Global spending by governments on homeland security will rise to $562 billion in 2004 and to $572 billion in 2005
*Centre for Global and Homeland Security, 2003
** RAND/Janusian Terrorism Survey, 2004
Private Spend vs Public Spend Total US Spend Between $93B and $139B in FY 2003
�The biggest rise in spending is likely to come from the private sector�
---Fortune, �The Fruits of Safety�, June 28 2004
Current and Projected Size of Security Markets Estimated
1995 2002 Est. Five-Year Market Market Compound Size ($ Mil.) Size ($Mil.) Growth (%) What is Different?
Physical Security Then-1995 Now-2002 Guards $12,000 $18,000 5.0% 7.0% Pricing, quality slowly improving at largest U.S. brands; must
Improve on 4% EBIT margins. Wither Ira Lipman? Armoring 2,000 8.0% Not Covered in 1995; includes government contracts Personnel armoring/protection 1,500 8.0% Not Covered in 1995; includes government contracts Intelligence, Investigations, Consulting 8,000 9.0% Post 9-11, post-Enron business soars;Not Covered in 1995 Specialized Protection 3,000 12.0% Not Covered in 1995 Armored:
Armored Transport 1,200 1,600 5.5% 5.0% Slower growth, significant consolidation. Ancillary, Outsourced Services 450 1,200 20.0% 15.0% ATM, counting, coin wrapping up to 50% of revs.
Electronic Security
Alarm Monitoring ((Commerical) 3,500 4,950 7.0% 7.0% Massive consolidation virtually over. ADT with 35% share!?! Alarm Monitoring (r(Residential) 2,500 4,800 17.0% 10.0% Sanity returns as credit scores mean something again.
Alarm Equipment (Comm. & Res.)
4,000 6,900 11.0% 9.0% Tyco, Honeywell, GE, Siemens take over, encouraging integration Fire Equipment (Commercial) 2,500 3,500 7.0% 6.0% Again – Tyco, Siemens, Honeywell and GE. Wither SPX/Edwards?
CCTV Equipment & Systems 1,200 2,600 14.0% 14.0% Digital video becomes standard and analog prices/margins plummet Computer Security (not covered here) 1,500
7,000 30.0% 25.0%
Access Control Door Peripherals, Cards, fences 15,000 18,000 4.0% 6.0% Assa Abloy leads in doors, Magal in high-tech fences. Look for ECSI Electronic Access Control 675 1,200 24.0% 15.0% Tyco, Honeywell, GE, Siemens, et. al. New Technologies:
Biometrics (law & access) 60 420 40.0% 35.0% Huge growth from tiny base. AFIS growth slow. Where are profits? Smart/Token Cards 200 1,500 40.0% 30.0% U.S. still far behind Europe. Whose got the back end? RFID 240 1,100 30-35% 40.0% Lack of standards, cost/benefit hamper potentially huge market
“Homeland,” Explosives Detectiion 100 2,000 30.0% Post 9-11 drives bulk and trace detection revenues
EAS 1,100 2,300 15.0% 8-9% Tyco vs. Checkpoint. Source tagging here, but now more cyclical. Systems Integration TOTAL
1,500 4,500 $96,000
22.0% 12-15% We were too optimistic in 1995 on integration. But TYC, HON, GE, Siemens, will help drive total market to its potential.
© 2004, Jeffrey Kessler Sr. VP, Lehman Brothers TM Equity Research
Security Sector Analysis – Sector Scorecard
SECTOR FIRE PROTECTION
ACCESS CONTROL CCTV LOCKING
SYSTEMS BIOMETRICS HOMELAND SECURITY
GUARDING SERVICES
ALARM MONITORING
FACILITIES SERVICES
BUILDING CONTROLS & MONITORING
SYSTEMS INTEGRATION
SUPPLY CHAIN
TECHNOLOGY
Global Market Size
$15-$20bn $1-$2 bn $1-$2 bn $20 bn $525 mm $20 bn $43 bn $23 bn $220 bn NA NA $12 bn
Projected Growth Rate
GDP+ 8% - 10% 9% - 11% 4% - 5% NM NA 5% - 7% 7% - 9% GDP 5% - 8% NA 13%-16%
Product vs. Service Focus
Product Product Product Product Product Product Service Service Service Product/Svc Product/Svc Product
Technology Intensive ◑ ◕ ◑ ◑ ● ● ○ ◑ ○ ◑ ◕ ◕
Product Innvovation ◑ ◑ ◑ ◑ ● ◕ ○ ◔ ○ ◑ ◑ ◑
Market Fragmentation ◔ ◕ ◑ ◑ ● ◔ ◑ ◕ ● ◑ ◕ ◕
Competitive Pressure ◕ ◕ ◕ ◕ ◑ ◕ ◑ ◑ ◑ ◕ ◕ ◕
Acquisition Opportunities ◑ ◑ ◕ ◑ ● ◔ ◑ ◑ ◑ ◑ ◕ ◕
Area to Focus? ● ◕ ● ◕ ◑ ◑ ◔ ◔ ◑ ◑ ◕ ◑
Low
High
© 2004, Jeffrey Kessler Sr. VP, Lehman Brothers TM Equity Research
Homeland Security Market Forces
The HGS sector will see considerable mergers and acquisitions activity as a result of the need for larger established companies to deliver more innovative solutions Established HGS companies will acquire best of breed startups to
supplement R&D budgets reduced during the 2000-2003 downturn GE Acquisition of Invision for $900M in 3/04
Like other multi-year trends, HGS is a global market with global needs as evidenced by: Madrid Train Bombings Saudi, Bali, Kenya, and Morocco attacks HSBC Bank bombings in Turkey Ongoing security presence in UK, France Emerging threat concerns in China, Japan
New Security Market Consolidating
Ion TrackInvision
Kampro Technology
Kalatel8x8
Osborn HoffmnFiber Optix
InterlogixSentrol
ITI
Casi RuscoInfoGraphis
GE
NotifierGamwell
FCI, FireliteSystem Sensor
NorthernWSE
Silent Witness(Gyyr)Ultrak
AdemcoADI
Honeywell
PhillipsBurle
Detection Systems
RadionicsReady Key
Bosch
Motorola Indala
HID(et all)
Securitron
Yale LocKMedeco
Assa Abloy
Sensormatic
DSC
ADT
SimplexGrinnell
Tyco
© 2004, Sandra Jones and Company
Future Drivers
�Money makes the world go round� Global economy War and politics Government spending Fear and treat Technology evolution Battle of the brands Things not on our radar screen
Defense sector vs. HGS sector Force Protection, the unexploited niche
The Aerospace and Defense sectors are historically oriented towards Force Projection solutions Overseas military use
There has historically been a lack of focus on Force Protection solutions, to protect against: Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attacks such as in Iraq Attempted missile (MANPAD) attacks on commercial jetliners
The HGS market category embodies the new global focus on force protection ;the HGS market is evolving as more spending occurs in the private sector 70% of US Critical infrastructure (oil wells, chemical plants,
computer systems) is in the private sector
The Innovation Problem Large Capabilities Gap
Recent observations from Department of Homeland Security Advanced Research Projects Agency (HSARPA) bidders conferences reveal gaps between existing technology and needs: Example: Current DHS focus is on complete Systems vs.
Components Result: DHS is funding yesterday�s technology, not �best of breed�
innovation from universities and small startups
An opportunity exists to introduce best of �breed technology� where current market standards are �best available� Startups don't necessarily build complete systems but can create
ecosystems with larger companies to deliver full systems
Top DHS/Public Sector Investment Opportunities*
I. BioSurveillance/Biosensors II. US-VISIT Program III. Radiation Detection Equipment and Technology IV. Anti-Missile Technology for Commercial Aviation V. Intelligence Integration and Risk Analysis Systems VI. Explosive Detection and Baggage Systems VII. Air Cargo Security Technology VIII. Remote Video Surveillance Technology IX. Identification and Credentialing Systems and Technologies X. Vaccine and Medication Stockpiles XI. Cyber Security XII. DHS Human Resources System XIII. Operation Center Establishment and Management
*Civitas Group LLC, Implications of President�s 2005 DHS Budget Request
Private Sector Investment Areas
High Availability Disaster Recovery Business Continuity Solutions
Data Storage/Networking LT Hardened storage
Enterprise and Internet Software Business Intelligence, Data
Warehousing Network Availability and
Management Nuclear/Biological/Chemical Environmental Technologies Water/Power/Food Production
and Security solutions
Information Security Wireless and Satellite
Communications Unmanned Aerial Vehicles &
Robotics Risk Management and Insurance
Services Explosive Detection and Narcotic
Interdiction Physical Security Surveillance and Video Logistics, Trade and
Transportation Systems Navigation Technologies
Biometrics Data Mining Wireless RFID
Internet & Remote Video
Fiber Optics & Bandwidth
GPS
? Unknown
Today Intelligent Video
© 2004, Sandra Jones and Company
Technologies to Watch
National Focus with Targeted Investment Regions
DC/NOVA
• Federal Lab Infrastructure
Atlanta
• Info Security
• CDC
LA-Long Beach
• Defense Integrators
New England
• MIT/Draper
San Diego
• Bioscience
• Defense Integrators/Infrastructure
Silicon Valley
• LBL/LLNL
• Stanford/UCB
• NPS
RTP/Carolinas
• Biotechnology
Conclusion: Homeland and Global Security (HGS) is an excellent Early
Stage Investment Category
Serves a Market need in closing the gap between Systems vs. Components
Potentially generates high returns for investors due to Cyclically low valuations for seed/A round investing M&A activity