PLS 121: American Politics and GovernmentPLS 121: American Politics and Government

Political SciencePolitical Science

What is Science?

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The Story Thus Far…

• So far:– The Communist Manifesto

• Today:– Some nomenclature to help us

understand some of the aspects of science.

• Next Time:– The philosophy of science and how

we know when something is science.

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Some Nomenclature

• Theory

• Fact

• Law

• Hypothesis

• Operationalization

• Causation

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Theory

• Primary means of understanding the interactions in the world

• General understanding of the relationship between the variables

• Requirements in science:– General

– Deal with a large set of related results

– Produce empirical hypotheses

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Fact

• A generally agreed-upon interpretation of a phenomenon by competent observers

• Example:– The United States and Iraq were at

war between January 17 and February 27, 1991.

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Law

• A statement, with narrow scope, that has yet to be proven false– If ever shown to be false, it is

totally discarded

• Much narrower in scope than a theory, often focusing on one set of phenomena

• Example:– Modern democracies do not war

with other modern democracies.

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Hypothesis

• A proposed answer to a research question

• An empirical statement about a relationship between empirical variables

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Hypothesis

• The statement creates a partition of the world of possibilities:– Events that support the statement

– Events that conflict with the statement

– Events that have nothing to do with the statement

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Hypothesis

• Requirements:– Empirical

• Observables

– Falsifiable

• The set of conflicting events cannot be empty

– General

• Must apply to more than just one instance

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Hypothesis

• Example:– Free states are less likely to initiate

militarized interstate disputes.

• Checklist:– Empirical

– Falsifiable

– General

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Hypothesis

• Example?– Norway did not go to war with

Luxembourg in 1990.

• Checklist:– Empirical

– Falsifiable

– General

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Hypothesis

• Example?– The United States should withdraw

its forces from Iraq.

• Checklist:– Empirical

– Falsifiable

– General

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Hypothesis

• Example?– Democracies elect their political

representatives.

• Checklist:– Empirical

– Falsifiable

– General

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Hypothesis

• Example?– States that adhere to International

Law are more likely to use international institutions to settle interstate disputes.

• Checklist:– Empirical

– Falsifiable

– General

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Hypothesis

• Example?– Since 1972, states deemed free do

not use violent force first in a conflict.

• Checklist:– Empirical

– Falsifiable

– General

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Hypothesis

• Example?– The freer the market, the freer the

people.

• Checklist:– Empirical

– Falsifiable

– General

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Operationalization

• Each hypothesis contains at least two concepts

• Operationalization defines those concepts in empirical terms

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Operationalization

• Example:– Democracies do not war with other

democracies

– Definitions:

• A democracy is an independent state that elects its effective rulers.

• War is an interstate conflict in which more than 1000 combatants die.

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Operationalization

• Example?– State governments that use direct

democracy are better for their residents.

– Definitions:

• State governments refer to the governments of the 50 US states.

• Direct democracy refers to the initiative, referendum, and recall processes.

• Residents are those who live in the state.

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Causation

• When we say something causes something else, what do we mean?

• How do we show that A causes B?– ‘Show’, ‘demonstrate’, ‘suggest’,

but not ‘PROVE’.

• Requirements:– Exceptional Correlation

– Theoretic Feasibility

– Temporal Precedence

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Causation

• Example:– Electing liberal governments

causes the terrorist groups within the state to reduce their violence.

– Checklist:

• Exceptional Correlation

• Theoretic Feasibility

• Temporal Precedence

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Causation

• Example?– It has been shown that increases in

ice cream sales always precede increases in the violent crime rate.

– Checklist:

• Exceptional Correlation

• Theoretic Feasibility

• Temporal Precedence

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Assignment

• Write five hypotheses– Just scientific hypotheses, no need

for operationalization now

• These hypotheses will be shared during class on Wednesday

• For this assignment ONLY:– Write your hypotheses using

16 point font (Arial or Time NR).

• Why? – The overhead projector needs that

size to project well