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The World Energy Challenge: The World Energy Challenge:

A Very Brief OverviewA Very Brief Overview

Engr 10Engr 10

With your neighbor discussWith your neighbor discuss

1.1. What are fossil fuels?What are fossil fuels?

2.2. Why are they important?Why are they important?

3.3. Are they renewable?Are they renewable?

4.4. Approx. what % of Approx. what % of world world energy useenergy use is fossil fuels? is fossil fuels?

What do you already know?What do you already know?

Approximately what % of Approximately what % of world world energy useenergy use is fossil fuels? is fossil fuels?

A.A. 20%20%

B.B. 50%50%

C.C. 65%65%

D.D. 85%85%

E.E. 98%98%

World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type (1990 – 2035)

Today

World Electricity Generation by Fuel Type (2010 - 2040)

Today

Demand for Energy Will Continue to Grow

billion

At our current rate of usage, these reserves would last 53 years.

Oil2013

42.1 229.6 329.6 130.3 147.8 808.5

Source of reserves data: World Energy Resources 2013 Survey, World Energy Council.

What have you heard about the What have you heard about the Keystone pipeline?Keystone pipeline?

Meclee: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Keystone-pipeline-route.png

At our current rate of usage, these reserves would last 113 years.

Coal

1.1 14.6 31.8 245 288.3 310.5

Source of reserves data: World Energy Resources 2013 Survey, World Energy Council.

2013

Source of reserves data: World Energy Resources 2013 Survey, World Energy Council.

Natural Gas2013

7.7 11.7 14.2 16.2 56.6 80.3

At our current rate of usage, these reserves would last 55 years.

Fossil Fuel DepletionFossil Fuel DepletionGood NewsGood News Continually finding new fossil fuel Continually finding new fossil fuel

depositsdeposits Many known, but untapped deposits Many known, but untapped deposits

Bad NewsBad News Fossil fuels, esp. oil and natural gas, will Fossil fuels, esp. oil and natural gas, will

not last forever.not last forever.• Even before they run out, as demand grows Even before they run out, as demand grows

and availability shrinks, prices will skyrocket.and availability shrinks, prices will skyrocket.

BBC News – 13 Jun 2014BBC News – 13 Jun 2014

What is the price of oil per barrel today?

Alternatives have risks tooAlternatives have risks too

August 29, 2011 – Due to Virginia EarthquakeAugust 29, 2011 – Due to Virginia Earthquake North Anna Unit 1 is currently in Cold Shutdown with the

Residual Heat Removal System providing core cooling. North Anna Unit 2 is currently in Hot Shutdown and will be taken to Cold Shutdown with the Residual Heat Removal System providing core cooling.

June 6, 2011 – Due to March 11 Japan EarthquakeJune 6, 2011 – Due to March 11 Japan Earthquake Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant experienced Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant experienced

full meltdowns at three reactors in the wake of an full meltdowns at three reactors in the wake of an earthquake and tsunami in March, the country's Nuclear earthquake and tsunami in March, the country's Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters said Monday. (note Emergency Response Headquarters said Monday. (note almost one year later, still evacuated)almost one year later, still evacuated)

What do you already know?What do you already know?

Which country is the #1 source of oil Which country is the #1 source of oil imports for the U.S.?imports for the U.S.?

a)a)RussiaRussia

b)b)Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia

c)c)CanadaCanada

d)d)MexicoMexico

e)e)VenezuelaVenezuela

Energy IndependenceEnergy Independence

U.S. oil imports - 2013 (in 1,000s barrels/day)

=7+ million bbl/day (~50% daily use)

If the U.S. produced its own energy: more stable price less dependence on

countries with unpredictable political situations

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/imports/companylevel/

CANADA 2,571

SAUDI ARABIA 1,168

MEXICO 831

VENEZUELA 738

IRAQ 428

COLOMBIA 389

NIGERIA 338

KUWAIT 323

ECUADOR 223

ANGOLA 188

BRAZIL 92

CHAD 57

ALGERIA 45

ARGENTINA 9

VIETNAM 9

Fossil Fuel ChallengesFossil Fuel Challenges

Non-renewableNon-renewable Depleting resourcesDepleting resources Increasing demandIncreasing demand

Is that all?Is that all?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ba/Gulf_Offshore_Platform.jpg

Air PollutionAir PollutionBurning fossil fuels causes air pollution from Burning fossil fuels causes air pollution from waste productswaste productsParticulates: Particulates: small bits of burned fuel, small bits of burned fuel, causing smogcausing smogOzoneOzone: nitrogen oxide & other gases react : nitrogen oxide & other gases react to create ozone near the earth’s surfaceto create ozone near the earth’s surfaceSulfur dioxideSulfur dioxide: causing acid rain: causing acid rainCarbon monoxideCarbon monoxide: displaces O: displaces O22 in blood, in blood, deprives brain, heart, etc. of Odeprives brain, heart, etc. of O22

Air Pollution Causes Health Air Pollution Causes Health ProblemsProblems

Short TermShort Term• Can irritate the eyes, throat, and lungs Can irritate the eyes, throat, and lungs • Bronchitis or pneumoniaBronchitis or pneumonia• Can aggrevate asthmaCan aggrevate asthma

Long TermLong Term• Chronic respiratory diseaseChronic respiratory disease• Lung cancerLung cancer• Heart diseaseHeart disease

http://familydoctor.org/online/famdocen/home/common/asthma/triggers/085.html

http://www.edf.org/page.cfm?tagID=6067

Air Pollution Causes Air Pollution Causes Environmental Damage Environmental Damage

Acid rainAcid rain• Kill plantsKill plants• Kill fishKill fish• Prevent fish eggs from hatchingPrevent fish eggs from hatching• Ruin soil – nothing growsRuin soil – nothing grows• Damage to Damage to

buildings/monumentsbuildings/monuments Crop damage due to ozone Crop damage due to ozone

(O(O33) smog - $ billions/year) smog - $ billions/yearTrees killed by acid rain

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6e/Waldschaeden_Erzgebirge_3.jpg

Fossil Fuel Extraction Causes Fossil Fuel Extraction Causes Environmental Damage Environmental Damage

Adverse environmental effects due to Adverse environmental effects due to drilling, leakages, and spills includedrilling, leakages, and spills include• Surface and ground water pollution Surface and ground water pollution • Drilling fluid (called mud) releasesDrilling fluid (called mud) releases• Land subsidence Land subsidence • Land and wildlife disruption Land and wildlife disruption • Oil spills Oil spills

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2387http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oiled_bird_3.jpghttp://www.masstech.org/cleanenergy/important/envother.htm

Clean Air Act – Clean Air Act – We’re getting better! We’re getting better!

Clean Air Act - resulted in significant Clean Air Act - resulted in significant improvements in the U.S.improvements in the U.S.• Pollution Pollution 20 cars today 20 cars today = = 1 car 1 car from 1960’sfrom 1960’s• Emissions reduced: CO by 33%, sulfur dioxide Emissions reduced: CO by 33%, sulfur dioxide

by 38%, volatile organic compounds by 42%, by 38%, volatile organic compounds by 42%, particulate matter by 75%, lead by 98%particulate matter by 75%, lead by 98%

Overall air pollution reduction Overall air pollution reduction approximately 48%approximately 48%

Hot spots of bad air pollution still existHot spots of bad air pollution still exist

http://www.dispatchesfromchina.com/2010/06/pass_the_mask.html

It’s Not All Good NewsIt’s Not All Good NewsMany developing countries do not yet have strict Many developing countries do not yet have strict pollution regulations in place, and pollution is pollution regulations in place, and pollution is significantly worse than in the U.S.significantly worse than in the U.S.

http://www.dispatchesfromchina.com/2010/06/pass_the_mask.htmlhttp://blog.sustainablog.org/do-cities-located-by-the-water-have-a-sustainability-advantage/

Beijing Mumbai

Baku, Azerbaijan

Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse Effect

Greenhouse glass Greenhouse glass allows short allows short wavelength radiation from the wavelength radiation from the sun to transmit through. It sun to transmit through. It reflects most of the long reflects most of the long wavelength radiation emitted wavelength radiation emitted by everything inside the by everything inside the greenhouse, trapping heat greenhouse, trapping heat inside.inside.

Greenhouse gases Greenhouse gases have this have this same effect, causing our world same effect, causing our world to be warm.to be warm.

Global WarmingGlobal Warming

The theory behind global warming - an The theory behind global warming - an increase in certain gases will cause more increase in certain gases will cause more heat to be reflected, increasing the heat to be reflected, increasing the atmosphere’s temperature.atmosphere’s temperature.• Burning of fossil fuels produces significant Burning of fossil fuels produces significant

amounts of these greenhouse gasesamounts of these greenhouse gases

Conclusions of the Intergovernmental Conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of 1,300 scientific experts from many of 1,300 scientific experts from many countries:countries:• Greater than 90% chance that human activities Greater than 90% chance that human activities

over the past 250 years have warmed our over the past 250 years have warmed our planetplanet

Can You Name The Main Can You Name The Main Greenhouse Gases?Greenhouse Gases?

GHGs in AtmosphereGHGs in Atmosphere

Water Vapor (HWater Vapor (H22O)O)• 36%-72%36%-72%

Carbon Dioxide (COCarbon Dioxide (CO22)) Methane (CHMethane (CH44)) Fluorocarbons (CFCs)Fluorocarbons (CFCs) Ozone (OOzone (O33)) Nitrous Oxide (NNitrous Oxide (N22O)O)

http://nlc-echs-groupthree.co.uk/greenhousegasses.aspx

http://www.climatechoices.org.uk/pages/cchange3.htm

Correlation Between CO2 and Temperature

Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences: Global Warming Facts and Our Futures, originally provided to that site by Kurt Cuffey, University of California, Berkely.

Correlation Between CO2 and Temperature

A climate model that includes both natural processes and human activities closely matches actual measurements of 20th-century temperatures

The same climate model without human activity (natural processes only) does not match the strong warming observed during the past few decades.

http://www.koshland-science-museum.org/exhibitgcc/historical06.jsp

Why So Much Disagreement?Why So Much Disagreement? Heat Island EffectHeat Island Effect

• Many temperature sensors for collecting long-term data Many temperature sensors for collecting long-term data originally were in the country. As cities have grown, originally were in the country. As cities have grown, sensors now are in the city. Temperatures are higher in sensors now are in the city. Temperatures are higher in the city (example: walking in a parking lot on a hot day).the city (example: walking in a parking lot on a hot day).

• It is difficult to model this in climate change predictions. It is difficult to model this in climate change predictions. ResultResult → → a lot of uncertainty in long-term temperature a lot of uncertainty in long-term temperature trends. Satellite data are more accurate, but are not trends. Satellite data are more accurate, but are not available for that long of a period.available for that long of a period.

http://www.epa.gov/heatisld/images/UHI_profile-rev-big.gif

Why So Much Disagreement?Why So Much Disagreement?

Predicted temperature increases tend to be within Predicted temperature increases tend to be within (or close to within) the uncertainty of computer (or close to within) the uncertainty of computer models.models.

Many causes interact, making it difficult to say Many causes interact, making it difficult to say with certainty what causes what. Computer with certainty what causes what. Computer models must be simplified significantly and cannot models must be simplified significantly and cannot take all interacting parameters into account.take all interacting parameters into account.

Petition ProjectPetition Project About 32,000 About 32,000

American scientists American scientists (9000+ with PhDs) (9000+ with PhDs) signed a petition signed a petition saying that saying that no no scientific evidence scientific evidence existsexists that man- that man-made GHG made GHG emissions have had emissions have had a significant effect a significant effect on Earth’s on Earth’s temperature. temperature.

Here are several Here are several figures from a figures from a published paper published paper that this project that this project references.references.

http://www.petitionproject.org/review_article.php

Petition Project, cont.Petition Project, cont.

http://www.petitionproject.org/review_article.php

So, Who’s Right??So, Who’s Right?? Many of your professors have strong Many of your professors have strong

opinions on this matter, you should opinions on this matter, you should do the research to form an informed do the research to form an informed opinion of your own.opinion of your own.

Here are two links, on either side of Here are two links, on either side of the issue, to get started. Both links the issue, to get started. Both links refer to scientific data and make refer to scientific data and make clear, reasoned argumentsclear, reasoned arguments• http://climate.nasa.gov/http://climate.nasa.gov/• http://www.petitionproject.org/http://www.petitionproject.org/

gw_article/Review_Article_HTML.phpgw_article/Review_Article_HTML.php

Your OpinionYour Opinion

Based on what you know today, do Based on what you know today, do you believe that man-made global you believe that man-made global warming is occurring?warming is occurring?

a)a) YesYes

b)b) NoNo

Your OpinionYour Opinion

Over the next 30 years, which of the Over the next 30 years, which of the following do you think will be the most following do you think will be the most important solution to the energy crisis?important solution to the energy crisis?

a)a)Energy conservationEnergy conservation

b)b)Increased drilling for fossil fuelsIncreased drilling for fossil fuels

c)c)Alternative energy sourcesAlternative energy sources

Possible Solutions to the Energy Possible Solutions to the Energy CrisisCrisis

More drilling for/excavation of fossil fuelsMore drilling for/excavation of fossil fuels Invest in technologies to improve Invest in technologies to improve

efficiency and reduce emissions from the efficiency and reduce emissions from the burning of fossil fuelsburning of fossil fuels

The best energy source - conservation! The best energy source - conservation! • In the long term, we may need to make In the long term, we may need to make

significant lifestyle changes as the world significant lifestyle changes as the world energy demand grows.energy demand grows.

Invest in alternative energy sourcesInvest in alternative energy sources

Engineers will be needed for all of these Engineers will be needed for all of these solutions!solutions!