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Conflict Analysis May 17, 2006

The Bank aims at promoting economic growth and poverty reduction through assistance that minimizes potential causes of conflict (Operational Policy on Development Cooperation and Conflict)

Sensitivity to conflict in Bank assistance:

A need to understand factors that affect conflict when developing strategies, policies and programs

Why conflict analysis?

Conflict Analysis Framework

Why conflict analysis?

Conflict Analysis Framework

Increase sensitivity to conflict in strategies, policies and programs

Identify and understand drivers and dynamics of conflict escalation and de-escalation

Understand linkages between conflict and poverty

Basis for strengthened resiliency to conflict escalation via appropriate development strategies and interventions

• Quick screening on 9 indicators to

determine conflict analysis need

• Full CAF: analysis of some 30 variables in different socioeconomic categories, adapted to local context

• Policy recommendations and programmatic implications

Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF)

Conflict Analysis Framework

Conflict Analysis Framework

Conflict Analysis Framework

Six categories of variables:

• Governance and Political

Institutions• Human Rights and

Security• Economic Structure and

Performance• Natural Resources

• External

Forces

• Social and Ethnic

Relations

Examples of variables used in conflict analysis:

• ethnic cleavages

• regional imbalances

• inclusiveness of political institutions

• militarization of society

• economic growth

• per capita income changes

• access to natural resources

• role of diaspora

Conflict Analysis Framework

Conflict Analysis Framework

Variables analyzed in local context on: • history/changes

• dynamics/trends

• public perceptions

• politicization

• organization

• link to poverty

• effects on conflict escalation and de-escalation

Conflict Analysis Framework

Conflict Analysis Framework

• Limited or comprehensive design

• Conducted alone or with partners

• Discrete analysis or part of wider work

• Public dissemination or internal use

At the Bank: 14 countries subject to conflict analysis, variety of design and process formats

Different CAF Formats

Conflict Analysis Framework

Comprehensive stand-alone analyses:

Nigeria, Somalia, Sri Lanka

Limited stand-alone analyses: CAR, Burundi, Venezuela

Limited conflict analysis as part of other work: Chad, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Angola

Other macro analyses with attention to conflict: Haiti, West Bank and Gaza

Conflict Analysis at the Bank

Conflict Analysis Framework

• Constraints of time, funding,

capacity

• Security and access during field work

• Relationship to host government

• Application of findings and recommendations in operations

Challenges in conflict analysis

Conflict Analysis Framework

• Briefer analyses often sufficient• Many benefits from multi-agency

analyses• Country anchoring important• Maintain conflict analysis rigor even

when conflict is not main focus• Conflict analysis should include

operational application of findings and recommendations, not end with dissemination

Way forward in conflict analysis

Based on the analysis: • What kind of strategy and interventions

would have a positive effect on the conflict situation (i.e. help reduce tension; strengthen country’s resilience to conflict escalation)?

• What kind of strategy / interventions should we avoid ?

Operational implications