Platts-PP-29-July-2015 (1)

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www.polymerupdate.com www.platts.com This Week’s Highlights: Asian Propylene: Prices flat in thin activity Asian PP: Raffia falls $31-$36/mt on ample supply, low demand INDEX: Platts International Prices 1 Polymerupdate Indian Domestic Producer Price 1 Platts Polymer Shipping Costs (USD/MT) 2 Polymerupdate CIF India Prices 2 Polymerupdate Indian Open Market Price Table 2 Polymerupdate Indian Producer Posting Price Comparison 3 Heard in PP Market 4 Currency Rates 4 Platts International Market Commentary & Analysis 5 Polymerupdate - PP Market Supply Scenario 6 Platts Price Analysis Of PP Chain Processing Margins 7 Crisil Research – Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis 8 Point of Contact 10 Polymerupdate - About us & Copyright 10 Platts - About us & Copyright 10 MUDASSAR

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Price Index Plastics PP July 2015

Transcript of Platts-PP-29-July-2015 (1)

Page 1: Platts-PP-29-July-2015 (1)

  

www.polymerupdate.com   www.platts.com   

 

This Week’s Highlights:

Asian Propylene: Prices flat in thin activity

Asian PP: Raffia falls $31-$36/mt on ample supply, low demand

INDEX:

Platts International Prices 1

Polymerupdate Indian Domestic Producer Price 1

Platts Polymer Shipping Costs (USD/MT) 2

Polymerupdate CIF India Prices 2

Polymerupdate Indian Open Market Price Table 2

Polymerupdate Indian Producer Posting Price Comparison 3

Heard in PP Market 4

Currency Rates 4

Platts International Market Commentary & Analysis 5

Polymerupdate - PP Market Supply Scenario 6

Platts Price Analysis Of PP Chain Processing Margins 7

Crisil Research – Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis 8

Point of Contact 10

Polymerupdate - About us & Copyright 10

Platts - About us & Copyright 10  

 

MUDASSAR

Page 2: Platts-PP-29-July-2015 (1)

Week 30 – July 29, 2015

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA  |  Email: [email protected]  |  Tel: +91‐22‐61772000 (25 lines)  |  Fax: +91‐22‐61772025  1  

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES (USD/MT)

Product July 22 (WK 29)

July 29 (WK 30)

Price Change on Week

India Crude basket: (USD/b) 55.70 53.30 - 02.40

Naphtha: (MOP West India) 459.85 438.35 - 21.50

Propylene :

FOB Korea 854-856 844-846 - 10

CFR China 889-891 889-891 0 – CFR South East Asia 839-841 839-841 0 –

Poly propylene :

PP Injection South Asia 1180-1182 1149-1151 - 31

PP Injection Far East Asia 1114-1116 1079-1081 - 35

PP Injection South East Asia 1140-1142 1109-1111 - 31

PP Raffia South Asia 1180-1182 1149-1151 - 31

PP Raffia Far East Asia 1114-1116 1079-1081 - 35

PP Raffia South East Asia 1145-1147 1109-1111 - 36

PP IPP Film South Asia 1200-1202 1169-1171 - 31

PP IPP Film Far East Asia 1134-1136 1099-1101 - 35

PP IPP Film South East Asia 1165-1167 1129-1131 - 36

PP Copolymer South Asia 1215-1217 1189-1191 - 26

PP Copolymer Far East Asia 1164-1166 1129-1131 - 35

PP Copolymer South East Asia 1185-1187 1149-1151 - 36

PP BOPP South Asia 1195-1197 1164-1166 - 31

PP BOPP Far East Asia 1124-1126 1089-1091 - 35

PP BOPP South East Asia 1165-1167 1129-1131 - 36

China Domestic (YUAN/MT EX-WORK) : PP Raffia 8080-8120 7880-7920 - 200

 

POLYMERUPDATE INDIAN DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE – RIL (Ex-Hazira)

INDIA DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE - RIL (Ex Hazira)

Product July 22 (WK 29) July 29 (WK 30) Price Change on Week

INR/KG USD/MT INR/KG USD/MT INR/KG

PP Grade

Raffia 89.73 1272 89.73 1272 0 –

Injection 88.77 1258 88.77 1258 0 – TQ Film Homopolymer

91.97 1304

91.97 1304 0 –

Block Copolymer 91.86 1303 91.86 1303 0 –

Random Copolymer 96.39 1369 96.39 1369 0 –

BOPP Homopolymer 93.60 1328 93.60 1328 0 –

*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/kg basic (Nett of all taxes); equivalent USD/MT price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT) - Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers, processors, traders and distributors. - Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

  

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Specifications: Cargoes of 100-500mt delivered 15-30 days forward from date of publication with up to 30 days credit, basis CFR Far East Asia: China main ports (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Shantou, Hong Kong); CFR South East Asia: Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok, Laem Chabang, Map Ta Phut), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh). Platts prices reflect spot market values on the day of publication. India Crude Import Basket Calculation: ( (Dubai + Oman) / 2 * 65.2% ) + (Dated Brent * 34.8%) MOP West India : Mean of Platts FOB West India naphtha export price

 

MUDASSAR

Page 3: Platts-PP-29-July-2015 (1)

Week 30 – July 29, 2015

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA  |  Email: [email protected]  |  Tel: +91‐22‐61772000 (25 lines)  |  Fax: +91‐22‐61772025  2  

PLATTS – Polymer shipping costs (USD/MT)  

From: Middle East Middle East To: 25 – 100 MT > 100 MT East China 20 – 25 10 – 15 South China 15 – 25 10 – 15 India 45 – 50 30 – 40 Southeast Asia 30 – 35 25 – 30 NW Europe 55 – 65 50 – 60 Turkey 50 – 70 40 – 60 US Gulf 130 – 140 120 – 130 Latin America 165 – 175 160 – 165

NOTES: Polymers refer to Polyethylene, Polypropylene, Polystyrene, ABS, and PVC. 1) Middle East loadings refer to products coming from Jebel Ali (Dubai), Khalifa (Abu Dhabi), Jubail (Saudi Arabia), Shuaiba (Kuwait), Rabigh (Saudi Arabia), Mesaieed (Qatar), Assaluyeh and Bandar Imam Khomeini (Iran) ports. The assessments are normalized between these ports. 2) East China deliveries refer to products coming into Zhangjiagang, Shanghai, Jiangyin, Nantong, Ningbo, Nanjing, Zhenjiang ports. 3) South China deliveries refer to products coming into Shenzhen, Shantou, Hong Kong, Xiamen, Zhuhai ports. 4) India deliveries refer to products coming into Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai ports. 5) South East Asia deliveries refer to products coming into Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh) ports. 6) Northwest Europe deliveries refer to products coming into Antwerp port. Deliveries into Rotterdam and Amsterdam ports will be normalized to Antwerp. 7) Turkey deliveries refer to products coming into Istanbul and Mersin ports. 8) US Gulf deliveries refer to products coming into Houston port. No deliveries from the Persian Gulf. 9) Latin America deliveries refer to products coming into main ports in Brazil, Chile, Uruguay.

POLYMERUPDATE (CIF INDIA PRICES) 

PP Grade

CIF INDIA BY ORIGIN (Nhava Sheva Port)

South Korea Singapore Thailand Saudi Arabia

WK 29 WK 30 Price Changeon Week

WK 29 WK 30 Price Changeon Week

WK 29 WK 30 Price Change on Week

WK 29 WK 30 Price Change on Week July 22 July 29 July 22 July 29 July 22 July 29 July 22 July 29

Raffia 1290 1240 - 50 1230 1160 - 70 1250 1200 - 50 1200 1150 - 50 Injection 1290 1240 - 50 1230 1160 - 70 1250 1200 - 50 1200 1150 - 50 TQ Film Homopolymer 1310 1260 - 50 1250 1180 - 70 1270 1220 - 50 1220 1170 - 50 Block Copolymer 1300 1270 - 30 1260 1190 - 70 1250 1220 - 30 -- -- -- --

Random Copolymer 1330 1290 - 40 1290 1220 - 70 1270 1240 - 30 -- -- -- --

BOPP Homopolymer 1260 1210 - 50 1215 1160 - 55 1230 1200 - 30 -- -- -- --

- All prices are in USD/MT CIF India (Nhava Sheva) - For South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Saudi Arabia : Cargo size of 50-100mt delivered within 30 days. - Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers, processors, traders and distributors. - Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

POLYMERUPDATE - Indian Open Market Price Table Note: All prices are in INR/kg levels.

Product Mumbai Delhi Kolkatta Banglore Indore Chennai Ahmedabad Rajasthan Kanpur Hyderabad Punjab Kerala

PP Raffia 96.5 - 97 97 - 98 102 - 103 98.5 - 99 102 - 103 101 - 101.5 108 - 108.5 - 101 - 102 101.5 - 102.5 103 - 104 -

PP Film 100 - 101 103 - 104 106.5 -107 100.5 - 101 106 - 107 103 - 104 110 - 111 105 - 106 104 - 105 101 - 103 108 - 109 115.5 - 116

PP Injection 96.5 - 97 97 - 98 99 - 100 96 - 98 101 - 102 98.5 - 99.5 107 - 108 100 - 101 100 - 100.5 104 - 105 101 - 102 114 - 116

MUDASSAR

Page 4: Platts-PP-29-July-2015 (1)

Week 30 – July 29, 2015

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA  |  Email: [email protected]  |  Tel: +91‐22‐61772000 (25 lines)  |  Fax: +91‐22‐61772025  3  

POLYMERUPDATE - INDIAN PRODUCER POSTING PRICE COMPARISON (GRADE WISE) w.e.f 16-July-2015

BOPP

Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

RIL (Ex-Hazira) H029SG/H035SG 93600 1328

HALDIA (Ex-Works) F103 95700 1359

FIBRE FILAMENTS

Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

RIL (Ex-Hazira) H350FG/H200FG 92080 1306

IMPACT COPOLYMER

Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

RIL (Ex Works – BC/NC) MI3535 95930 1362

RIL (Ex-Hazira) B030MG/B120MA 91860 1303

HALDIA (Ex-Works) M304 96000 1363

INJECTION MOULDING (MFI - 3)

Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

RIL (Ex-Hazira) H033MG 89230 1264

HALDIA (Ex-Works) M103 92600 1313

INJECTION MOULDING (MFI 8-11)

Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

RIL (Ex Works – BC/NC) AM120N 87230 1235

RIL (Ex-Hazira) H110MA 88770 1258

HALDIA (Ex-Works) M110 90000 1276

RANDOM COPOLYMER

Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

RIL (Ex-Hazira) R019MZ 96390 1369

RAFFIA

Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

RIL (Ex Works – BC/NC) SS35N 89040 1262

RIL (Ex-Hazira) H030SG 89730 1272

HALDIA (Ex-Works) R103 97100 1379

TQ FILM

Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

RIL (Ex-Hazira) H100EY 91970 1304

HALDIA (Ex-Works) F110 93800 1331

*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/MT basic (Nett of all taxes); equivalent USD/MT price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT) - Ex Works: BC/NC = Ex Works Baroda Complex / Nagothane Complex | Ex Works: HC = Halidia Complex | Ex Works: M/B/T = Mumbai / Bhiwandi / Thane - Product Key: BOPP = Biaxially-Oriented Polypropylene, MFI = Melt Flow Index, - USD Price calculation: INR/MT – Aprox. Clearing and Forwarding charges / Basic Duty / Exchange Rate = USD/MT (For example: 82330 – 2500 / 1.075 / 54.24 = 1396)

  

MUDASSAR

Page 5: Platts-PP-29-July-2015 (1)

Week 30 – July 29, 2015

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA  |  Email: [email protected]  |  Tel: +91‐22‐61772000 (25 lines)  |  Fax: +91‐22‐61772025  4  

          

Heard in PP MARKET

Platts: PP Raffia/Injection: Aug offer heard at $1,100/mt CFR FE Asia

PP Raffia: Domestic China price heard at Yuan 7,900-8,000/mt, ex works

PP Raffia/Injection: Aug offer heard at $1,150/mt CFR SE Asia, Reliance origin

PP BOPP: BOPP vs PP Raffia spread at about $20/mt CFR SE Asia

PP Block Copol: Aug offer heard at $1,230/mt CFR SE Asia, NATPET origin

PP Raffia/Injection: Aug offer heard at $1,180/mt CFR S Asia, Aramco origin

PP Raffia/Injection: Aug offer heard at $1,190-1,200/mt CFR S Asia, NATPET origin

PP BOPP: BOPP vs PP Raffia spread at about $10/mt CFR S Asia

PP Block Copol: Aug offer heard at $1,240-1,250/mt CFR S Asia, Borouge origin

PP Raffia/Injection: Aug offer heard at $1,150/mt CFR SE Asia, Reliance origin

PP Raffia/Injection: Aug offer heard at $1,130/mt CFR FE Asia, Reliance origin

PP IPP Film: IPP Film vs PP Raffia spread at about $20/mt CFR FE Asia

PP BOPP: BOPP vs PP Raffia spread at about $15/mt CFR FE Asia

PP Block Copol: Block Copol vs Raffia/Injection spread about $50/mt, CFR FE Asia

PP Raffia/Injection: Aug offer heard at $1,120/mt CFR SE Asia, Borouge origin

PP Raffia/Injection: Aug offer heard at $1,090/mt CFR FE Asia, normalized to LC 30, Braskem origin

PP IPP FILM: IPP Film vs Raffia spread is about $15-20/mt CFR FE Asia

PP BOPP: BOPP vs Raffia spread is about $5-10/mt CFR FE Asia

PP Raffia/Injection: Aug offer heard at $1,140/mt CFR SE Asia, Mitsubishi origin

PP Raffia: Domestic China price heard at Yuan 7,900-7,950/mt, ex works

PP Raffia/Injection: Aug buying indication heard at $1,050/mt CFR FE Asia

PP Raffia/Injection: Aug offer heard at $1,160-1,170/mt CFR S Asia (Pakistan), APC/Lyondellbasell

PP Raffia/Injection: Aug offer heard at $1,120/mt CFR SE Asia, Borouge origin

Polymerupdate: 29-7-2015: Saudi Arabia producer offers PP Film at $1270-1280/mt in India (CIF Nhava Sheva port)

29-7-2015: Saudi Arabia producer offers PP Injection/Raffia at $1180/mt in India (CIF Nhava Sheva port)

29-7-2015: Saudi Arabia producer offers PP Copolymer at $1310/mt in India (CIF Nhava Sheva port)

29-7-2015: Saudi Arabia producer offers PP Injection/Raffia at $1150/mt in India (CIF Nhava Sheva port)

29-7-2015: Oman producer offers PP Injection/Raffia at $1150/mt in India (CIF Nhava Sheva port)

29-7-2015: Oman producer offers PP Film at $1160/mt in India (CIF Nhava Sheva port)

29-7-2015: Saudi Arabia producer offers PP Raffia/Injection at $1175/mt in Pakistan

29-7-2015: Saudi Arabia producer offers PP Copolymer at $1205/mt in Pakistan

29-7-2015: Saudi Arabia producer offers PP Raffia/Injection at $1200/mt in Pakistan

29-7-2015: Saudi Arabia producer offers PP Film at $1220/mt in Pakistan

            

MUDASSAR

Page 6: Platts-PP-29-July-2015 (1)

Week 30 – July 29, 2015

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA  |  Email: [email protected]  |  Tel: +91‐22‐61772000 (25 lines)  |  Fax: +91‐22‐61772025  5  

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

Asian Propylene: Prices flat in thin activity

- Asian supply remains ample - Buyers wait for new plants to start up

Propylene was assessed at $890/mt CFR China Friday, flat from the previous assessment on Thursday last week rather than last Friday due to a public holiday in Singapore. Discussion in the CFR China market was thin and no deals were heard concluded. Buyers were not in a hurry amid expectations fresh supply would soon enter the market after the startup of new plants in China and South Korea. Sources said buying indications were around $880/mt CFR China while sellers were at $900/mt CFR China. The domestic price in East China was heard in the range of Yuan 6,500-6,900/mt, which averages to Yuan 6,700/mt or $913/mt on an import parity basis, down from Yuan 6,750/mt on Thursday last week. On a day-on-day basis, the CFR China marker fell $10/mt due to lower buy indications. Mid-week there was an increase in CFR China offers after a firmer FOB Korea deal was done, but the higher offers were not taken up and no deals had been confirmed by Friday. South Korea's Hanwha Total Tuesday sold 1,500-1,600 mt propylene for end August/early September loading via tender at $860-$865/mt FOB Korea. Most market participants considered the level high and not repeatable. A source in South Korea said Japanese buyers may have needed cargoes to fill vessel space. The FOB Korea marker was assessed unchanged from last week at $845/mt, but down $10/mt day on day as buying indications were lowered Friday. The CFR Taiwan marker was assessed at $888/mt, flat from a week ago. A source in Taiwan said inventory levels were relatively high and supply ample, while demand was weak with downstream phenol plants mulling lowering operating rates. The CFR Southeast Asia marker was assessed at $840/mt, also unchanged from the week before, in thin activity with August discussions heard to have mostly been concluded earlier.

RATIONALE:

Propylene was assessed at $890/mt on a CFR China basis Friday, flat from the previous assessment on Thursday last week. The buy idea was heard at $880/mt CFR China while the sell level was around $900/mt, similar to last week. The FOB Korea propylene marker was assessed at $845/mt, also unchanged from Thursday last week. The assessment was above buy indications heard at $840/mt. Domestic East China prices were heard in the range of Yuan 6,500-6,900/mt, with the average Yuan 6,700/mt equating to $913/mt on an import parity basis, down slightly from Yuan 6,750/mt on Thursday last week.

Asian PP: Raffia falls $31-$36/mt on ample supply, low demand

- Producers offer excess stocks from SE Asia

- Indian producers extend price protection

The CFR Far East Asia polypropylene raffia marker plunged $35/mt week on week to $1,080/mt Wednesday, as

buying sentiment continues to deteriorate following weak economic data out earlier this week. Traders in China

were heard offloading PP raffia cargoes at more than $100/mt below their purchase price, while actively exploring

export opportunities to Southeast Asia. Chinese domestic PP raffia plunged Yuan 200/mt on the week to Yuan

7,900/mt Wednesday, equivalent to about $1,037/mt on an import parity basis, and sharply below the assessed

CFR Far East Asia raffia price. The CFR Southeast Asia PP raffia marker fell $36/mt on the week to $1,110/mt as

producers offload excess inventory into an already weak market. The sharpest offer was heard to have come from

Borouge, which was said to offering cargoes stockpiled at its regional warehouse in Jurong Island, Singapore. The

CFR South Asia PP raffia marker fell $31/mt week on week to $1,150/mt Wednesday, following a slew of tenders

from Middle Eastern producers such as Saudi Aramco, APC and LyondellBasell. Indian producers meanwhile,

continued to agree to refund domestic clients the difference in prices for trades over July 21-31 if producers were

to lower offers on August 1. This strategy was meant to attract buyers who would otherwise have held back,

waiting for offers to fall.

RATIONALE:

Polypropylene raffia was assessed $35/mt lower on week at $1,080/mt CFR Far East Asia Wednesday. Substantial

volumes of deepsea cargoes from Brazil was heard offered at $1,090/mt CFR FE Asia after normalizing to Letter of

Credit on 30 days basis, while buy indications were at $1,050/mt. The CFR Southeast Asia raffia marker was

assessed at $1,110/mt, down $36/mt on the week reflecting offers heard from Borouge at $1,120/mt amid no

bids. The CFR South Asia PP raffia marker was assessed at $1,150/mt, down $31/mt on the week taking into

consideration offers at $1,160/mt from the Middle East, with few buy indications.

MUDASSAR

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Week 30 – July 29, 2015

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA  |  Email: [email protected]  |  Tel: +91‐22‐61772000 (25 lines)  |  Fax: +91‐22‐61772025  6  

POLYMERUPDATE - PP MARKET SUPPLY SCENARIO No. 4 cracker planned to be shut by CPC CPC is likely to shut its No. 4 cracker for maintenance turnaround. The cracker is planned to be shut in Q4, 2015. The period of the shutdown could not be ascertained. Located in Linyuan, Taiwan, the cracker has an ethylene capacity of 380,000 mt/year and propylene capacity of 193,000 mt/year. PP plant likely to be restarted by LCY Chemical LCY Chemical is likely to restart its polypropylene (PP) plant. The plant is likely to be restarted in end-July 2015 or early August 2015. It is presently under a shutdown. Located in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, the plant has a production capacity of 250,000 mt/year. PO unit restarted by NKGC Nanjing KUMHO GPRO Chemical (NKGC) has restarted a propylene oxide plant. The plant

restarted over the weekend. It was shut for a maintenance turnaround. Located in Nanjing, China, the plant has a production capacity of 90,000 mt/year Naphtha cracker likely to be shut by Lotte Chem Lotte Chem is in plans to shut a naphtha cracker for maintenance turnaround. The cracker is likely to be shut in October 2015. It is planned to remain off-stream for around one month. Located in Daesan, South Korea, the cracker has an ethylene capacity of 1 million mt/year, propylene capacity of 500,000 mt/year and butadiene capacity of 150,000 mt/year.

MUDASSAR

Page 8: Platts-PP-29-July-2015 (1)

Week 30 – July 29, 2015

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA  |  Email: [email protected]  |  Tel: +91‐22‐61772000 (25 lines)  |  Fax: +91‐22‐61772025  7  

PLATTS – Price Analysis of PP Chain Processing Margins  

Naphtha to Propylene Propylene to Polypropylene

Typical North East Asian $/mt margin for producing propylene from naphtha using a conversion cost of $250/mt 

Typical $/mt margin for producing PP homo injection in Far East Asia from propylene using a conversion cost of $150/mt 

Polyproplene : Naphtha ratio

CFR China Vs SEA Propylene

 CFR FE Asia PP homo injection prices as a ratio of naphtha CFR China propylene premium or discount to CFR South East Asian propylene prices

MUDASSAR

Page 9: Platts-PP-29-July-2015 (1)

Week 30 – July 29, 2015

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA  |  Email: [email protected]  |  Tel: +91‐22‐61772000 (25 lines)  |  Fax: +91‐22‐61772025  8  

Currency rates equivalent to 1 US Dollar :

Countries Currency Rates Countries Currency Rates

Indian Rupees (INR) 63.81 Japan Yen (JPY) 123.59

Pakistan Rupees (PKR) 101.82 Indonesia Rupiahs (IDR) 13,447.00

China Yuan Renminb (CNY) 6.21 Malaysia Ringgits (MYR) 3.80

Bangladesh Taka (BDT) 77.70 Singapore Dollars (SGD) 1.36

Sri Lanka Rupees (LKR) 133.50 South Korea Won (KRW) 1160.68

Thailand Baht (THB) 34.83 Saudi Arabia Riyals (SAR) 3.74

Taiwan New Dollars (TWD) 31.42 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) 3.67  

CRISIL Research – Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis  

 

Overview: On exports, worry beads forming After falling by 1.5% in 2014-15, merchandise exports from India plunged 16.8% in the first 3 months ofthis fiscal. What went wrong? The export destinations are not doing well, prices of many export items have fallen and the rupee, too,has appreciated in real terms against the basket of 36 countries. Weakgrowth in the US economy in the first quarterwould have contributed to the sharp slide in India'sexports as well.But our preliminary analysis shows the decline in exports is higher than warranted by these factors. That isto say, the decline isn’t merely cyclical; there could be structural elements at play as well. The cyclicalcomponent of the exports will move up when cyclical factors (world GDP growth, prices) turn favourable,but structural factors, if not addressed, will continue to act as a drag on India's export performance.The slowdown in trade is not unique to India. An IMF study (2014) notes that a part of the global tradeslowdown since the crisis has been driven by structural, not cyclical factors. Theslowdown in trade could reflect deeper, structural factors, such as a rise in protectionism or a change inglobal production schemes throughout the world.In the case of India, there are additional worries. Falling competitiveness is another structural factorrestricting export growth. For key export items such as gems & jewellery and textiles, RevealedComparative Advantage has come down over the years. Recently,the Indian commerce secretary also expressed concerns on falling competitiveness of Indian exports due toinfrastructure and easing of doing business issues.Another concern is the threat emanating from treaties such as Trans Pacific Partnership(TPP), which is being forged between 12 countries, including the US. By not being a part of TPP, India riskslosing out a significant chunk of its export market; TPP countries account for 25% of India’s exports.Indeed, India needs to address export-related issues on a war footing.

MUDASSAR

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Week 30 – July 29, 2015

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400013, INDIA  |  Email: [email protected]  |  Tel: +91‐22‐61772000 (25 lines)  |  Fax: +91‐22‐61772025  9  

IIP indicates industry growth gaining traction Industrial production growth inched down to 2.7% in May from 3.4% in April. However, despite the volatility, IIP numbers have averaged at a higher level in 2015 - at 3.5% since January 2015 as compared to 1.4% in the 5 months prior to that. Therefore, IIP data suggests an improvement in industrial activity this year in comparison to 2014, so far. In May, IIP growth slowed as the manufacturing sector lost momentum on the back of weak performance of consumer-oriented sectors. Unseasonal rains earlier in the year, resulting in lower rural demand, are weighing on consumer goods. This is reflected in lower two-wheeler and tractor sales in April and May. Therefore, favourable distribution of rainfall so far and deficiency at -4% of long term average - much lower than last year - is a welcome respite.

Inflation crawls up in June Inflation inched up to 5.4% from 5% in May due to a 70 bps increase in food inflation. Higher protein inflation -9.7% in June compared with 8.2% in May - was behind the food inflation rise. Inflation in pulses crossed 22% in June as production suffered largely a result of a weak monsoon last year and damage to crops from unseasonal rains this year. So far, the monsoon scenario remains favourable, with rainfall at 4% below the long term average as on July 8, 2015. But, healthy and well-distributed rainfall in July and August will be crucial. We go by Indian Meteorological Department’s forecast of 12% deficient rainfall, but assume distribution remains normal, and the government undertakes proactive steps to contain food inflation. We, therefore, expect CPI inflation at 5.8% in 2015-16, down from 6% in 2014-15. Core inflation rose 20 bps to 5.3% in June, a slower climb compared to 40 bps in May. The pick-up came from a sharp jump in personal care and effects (up 120 bps) and in household

services, health, transport and communication and, recreation and amusement (all up 30 bps).

Rupee stays put in June The rupee averaged 63.9/$, hardly changed from 63.8/$ in May. However, it fell to 71.6 against the euro from71.2 in May. In the first half of June, the rupee hovered between 64.2/$ and 63.8/$, and rose to 63.5/$ in the second half as weak employment data dragged the US dollar down. However, as uncertainty on Greece loomed large in the last week of June, the rupee lost some ground, closing at 63.8/$. There was also no support from FIIs, with net outflows continuing for the second consecutive monthly.

About CRISIL Research CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today India's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macroeconomy and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists, sector experts, company analysts, and information management specialists. 

  

 

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Page 11: Platts-PP-29-July-2015 (1)

Week 30 – July 29, 2015

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