Platforms, ecosystems, and the future of software

Michael Mace, April 7, 2009

mike@rubiconconsulting.com@ g

About Rubicon

• Help high tech organizations win markets through business and market strategyg gy– Since 1999– Practices: define, deliver, defend, optimize

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About me

• Macintosh software developerApple• Apple– Director of Mac platform marketing– Director of customer & competitive analysis– Director of customer & competitive analysis

• Palm/PalmSource– VP of product planningVP of product planning– Chief competitive officer

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Everybody wants a platform

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Where did this "platform" thingWhere did this platform thing come from in the first place?

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Agenda

• A quick history of software platformsWhat makes a platform win?• What makes a platform win?

• Where will the industry go next?

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W b h d b ttWe remember hardware better than software

• What's the firstfirst electronic computer?p

• ENIAC 1946• ENIAC, 1946

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What was the first business computer?

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J. Lyons & Co.

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J. Lyons & Co.

• 30,000 employees150m meals a year• 150m meals a year

• 36 miles of Swiss roll a day

• ...all on paper

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1951: The first business computer

• Lyons LEO, 1951– Paid Cambridge $5k

5 000 sq are feet 4k of memor– 5,000 square feet, 4k of memory weighing half a ton

– Payroll, inventory, order management...

• Processed an employee's wages in 1.5 seconds (vs. 8 minutes)

L• Lyons spun out as a computer company

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David Caminer, the first business app programmer / systems analyst

Software was synonymous with hardwarewith hardware

• First verified use of term "software"

• John Tukey, 1958– Statistician

software

Statistician• Princeton and Bell Labs

– Helped design the U2– Popularized the term "bit"

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What was the first third party app?

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The first third-party app

• Applied Data Research Autoflow, 1964

– An automatic flowcharting program• Also the first patented software

– RCA first then IBM– RCA first, then IBM– IBM: free clone– US government antitrust suit, 1969– January 1, 1970: IBM unbundles

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The first third-party app

• Martin GoetzProject Manager– Project Manager, Autoflow

– Holder of first software patent

• Mike Guzik– Lead programmer,

Autoflow

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Computerworld, June1968

1970s: Rise of the killer app

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1979: VisiCalc

• "Visicalc could some day become the software tailbecome the software tail that wags (and sells) the personal computer dog."p p g– Ben Rosen, later the founder

of Compaq, writing as an l t ith M St l Dan Bricklin at theanalyst with Morgan Stanley Dan Bricklin at the

West Coast Computer Faire, May 1979

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1980s: Separation of OS from hardware

• August 1980– IBM signs Microsoft

to supply the OS forto supply the OS for its new computer

• August 1981– IBM PC ships

• 1982– Microsoft licensesMicrosoft licenses

MS-DOS to 50 hardware manufacturers

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Agenda

• A quick history of software platformsWhat makes a platform win?• What makes a platform win?

• Where will the industry go next?

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The web discovers APIs

• Mashups

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Mobile discovers APIsOne-year growth in

• Intense interest due to recent successes of a

25,000

registered developers

recent successes of a certain mobile device

15 000

20,000

10,000

15,000

0

5,000

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0

Mobile discovers APIsOne-year growth in

• Intense interest due to recent successes of a

25,000

registered Palm developers

recent successes of a certain mobile device

15 000

20,000

10,000

15,000

0

5,000

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01998 1999

"That's unfair"

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Reality: Most platforms fail

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Definition of failure depends on your goalon your goal

– Give me a marketing boost over h i i

Need for developers

Don't carethe competition

– Get developers to add features

Don t care

C h tI don't have time to develop

– Address user problems and sub-

Care somewhat

dd ess use p ob e s a d submarkets that neither of us could have tackled alone

Care a lot

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What motivates developers?

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How platforms fail

Almost impossible to

Apps hard to findStore financials outrageous

monetizeg

Inconsistent APIs (raises cost)Very hard to get on device

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The PC and Windows

• The RiseIBM drives belief in large user base– IBM drives belief in large user base

– Hardware architecture permits powerful apps (for the time)– Open APIsOpen APIs– Clone licensing drives additional growth; virtuous circle

• The Decline– Microsoft preys on successful software developers– Intel and Microsoft can't coordinate innovation

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The less friction, the more apps

• Easy to developPowerful APIs great documentation and support uses– Powerful APIs, great documentation and support, uses existing tools/languages, easy to debug

• Easy to sellasy to se– No artificial barriers, easy discovery, marketing,

installation, billing, reasonable financials

• Large user base– Or the belief that it'll get large

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Pluses and minuses of iPhone ecosystemecosystem

Strength WeaknessA f i liAPIs Very capable App functionality limited

Develop- Familiar if you're a Mac Nonstandard; Java and pment

ydeveloper Flash missing

Store Built in, pretty good terms Arbitrary screening by Apple price pressureApple, price pressure

User basePerception of world domination, high traffic seen by websites

(Will it continue to grow?)by websites

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The ultimate ecosystem doesn't yet existdoesn t yet exist

• Advantages of an integrated platformAdvantages of an integrated platform– Great discovery, billing, support, APIs

• Advantages of web app developmentAdvantages of web app development– Lots of Ajax-style tools, instant deployment, huge user

base, write once run anywhere

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Agenda

• A quick history of software platformsWhat makes a platform win?• What makes a platform win?

• Where will the industry go next?

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Opportunity in disaggregation

1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

•Computers

•Software that lets computers do multiple tasks

• Independent software

•OS platforms separated from hardwarehardware

•Platforms separated from OS

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"The Network is the Computer"

Application Windows PC hardware

SolarisApplication

Solarisor Java Sparc servers

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Problems

• LatencyRichness of APIs• Richness of APIs

• Access to on-device features and data

– High latency• Mobile makes it worse

– Limited bandwidth– High cost– Battery life

– Limited capacity– Limited coverage

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Next: The OS disaggregates

Application Local hardwareLocal OS

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The Meta-Platform is the Computer

Cloud servers

Cloud components

Application

L l OS

Local hardware

Local OS

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Local hardware

Remember

• If you're a developer"Which platform gives me the best long term business– Which platform gives me the best long-term business proposition?"

• If you're a platform vendoryou e a p at o e do– "How can I create a better ecosystem than the other

guy?"

• Opportunity: Disaggregating the OS– Balancing local and cloud OS services

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Discussion

• mike@rubiconconsulting.comhttp://mobileopportunity blogspot com• http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com

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Win MarketsT d Ad i hi h h fi kiTrusted Advisors to high-tech firms seeking to transform their visions into strategies, strategies into plans, and plans into results.

Practices:

Define / Design / Defend / Optimize

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