PLastic Prateek

7/27/2019 PLastic Prateek

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Demand forecast from marketing department

PAMCOI (Central Marketing division)

Today's date 15.02.2010

Firm demand plan (for March 2010)

Division Products Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

MIL1001 20 50 36 50

MILITARY MIL1002 45 40 45 50

MIL1003 10 22 30 15

MIL1004 25 35 15 20

MAC2001 20 25 12 26

MAC2002 22 45 50 25

MACHINER MAC2003 30 32 22 33

MAC2004 15 20 33 35

MAC2005 12 15 18 30


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ivision + Assembly time + Test time)


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Lead time for subcontracted parts

Part nos. Lead time in days Mean Standard D

A124512 Norm(12,2) 12 2

A124553 Norm(15,1) 15 1

A125533 Norm(14,2) 14 2

A125524 Norm(6,1) 6 1A131212 Norm(11,2) 11 2

A134523 Norm(16,3) 16 3

A128863 Norm(14,3) 14 3

A126458 Norm(12,2) 12 2

A121789 Norm(13,3) 13 3

B156625 Norm(14,2) 14 2

B156627 Norm(11,2) 11 2

B156629 Norm(11,2) 11 2

B156631 Norm(16,3) 16 3

B156633 Norm(14,3) 14 3

B156635 Norm(16,3) 16 3

B156637 Norm(14,3) 14 3

B156639 Norm(12,2) 12 2

B156641 Norm(13,3) 13 3

B156643 Norm(14,2) 14 2

Note: Norm (13, 3) implies that lead time is normally distributed with mean 13 and standard deviation o


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eviation

3.


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Count of Processing sequence

Processing sequence Total

1-2-3-6-8-9-12 5

1-3-4-5-9-11-12 7

1-3-5-7-9-11-12 81-4-5-7-9-10-12 9

1-5-6-7-10-11-12 3


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Division

Machinery

Machinery Total

Military

Military Total


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Part nos Processing sequenc Total

B156640 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 4

B156644 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 6

B156648 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 6

B156652 1-5-6-7-10-11-12 4B156656 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 7

B156660 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 3

B156664 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 4

B156668 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 6

B156672 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 4

B156676 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 6

50

A124566 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 7

A124580 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 6

A126555 1-5-6-7-10-11-12 4

A126612 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 3

A127789 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 3

A129125 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 5

A129614 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 4

A132331 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 6

A132569 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 3

A134520 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 6

A135526 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 5

A136625 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 7

A137889 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 4

A141222 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 6A144651 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 7

B156612 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 4

B156616 1-5-6-7-10-11-12 6

B156620 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 5

B156624 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 7

B156628 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 3

B156632 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 4

B156636 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 6

111


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Machinery

B156672 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 2 3 6 8 9

1-3-4-5-9-11-12 3 4 5 9 11

1-3-5-7-9-11-12 3 5 7 9 11

1-4-5-7-9-10-12 4 5 7 9 101-5-6-7-10-11-12 5 6 7 10 11

Military

1-2-3-6-8-9-12 2 3 6 8 9

1-3-4-5-9-11-12 3 4 5 9 11

1-3-5-7-9-11-12 3 5 7 9 11

1-4-5-7-9-10-12 4 5 7 9 10

1-5-6-7-10-11-12 5 6 7 10 11


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Count of Process Sum of Bat Sum Of MeBatch

1 4 2 1.5 2 1.5 1.5 8.5 34

3 13 1.5 2 1.5 1.5 2 8.5 110.5

2 8 1.5 1.5 2 1.5 2 8.5 68

3 8 2 1.5 2 1.5 2 9 721 2 1.5 2 2 2 2 9.5 19

4 14

4 17

6 19

6 24

2 8

Means


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Sum roots Batch

0.1 0.15 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1175 0.342783 0.685565

0.15 0.2 0.1 0.15 0.1 0.105 0.324037 1.168332

0.15 0.1 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.105 0.324037 0.916515

0.2 0.1 0.2 0.15 0.2 0.1525 0.390512 1.1045360.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.14 0.374166 0.52915

Variance


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In-house manufacturing times for various products

Work stati Batch processing time distribution

in hours (Includes set up times also)

Mean Standard Deviation

2 N(2,0.1) 2 0.13 N(1.5,0.15) 1.5 0.15

4 N(2,0.2) 2 0.2

5 N(1.5,0.1) 1.5 0.1

6 N(2,0.2) 2 0.2

7 N(2,0.2) 2 0.2

8 N(1.5,0.15) 1.5 0.15

9 N(1.5,0.15) 1.5 0.15

10 N(2,0.2) 2 0.2

11 N(2,0.1) 2 0.1

Note: 1 and 12 are Part Entry and Exit stations


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Assembly time and Testing time for various products

Division Products Assembly t Test time/unit

in hours* in hours*

MIL1001 0.7 0.3

Military MIL1002 0.85 0.3MIL1003 0.4 0.65

MIL1004 0.9 0.5

MAC2001 1 0.2

MAC2002 0.75 0.55

Machinery MAC2003 0.66 0.45

MAC2004 0.55 0.3

MAC2005 0.65 0.45

Note: Times are normally distributed with standard deviation of 0.2 hours


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Processing sequence - Batch size and lead time for receipt of raw material

Division Part nos Batch size Processing sequence Raw material receiving lead time (in days

Military A124580 2 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 6 3 5 7 9 11

Military A124566 3 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 7 4 5 7 9 10

Military A126612 3 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 3 2 3 6 8 9Military A126555 4 1-5-6-7-10-11-12 4 5 6 7 10 11

Military A134520 2 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 6 3 5 7 9 11

Military A135526 4 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 5 4 5 7 9 10

Military A136625 3 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 7 3 4 5 9 11

Military A127789 5 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 3 4 5 7 9 10

Military A129614 6 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 4 2 3 6 8 9

Military A141222 4 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 6 3 5 7 9 11

Military A137889 5 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 4 3 4 5 9 11

Military A132331 6 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 6 3 4 5 9 11

Military A129125 6 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 5 4 5 7 9 10

Military A144651 5 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 7 3 5 7 9 11

Military A132569 4 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 3 3 5 7 9 11

Military B156612 3 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 4 2 3 6 8 9

Military B156616 4 1-5-6-7-10-11-12 6 5 6 7 10 11

Military B156620 2 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 5 3 5 7 9 11

Military B156624 4 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 7 4 5 7 9 10

Military B156628 3 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 3 3 4 5 9 11

Military B156632 2 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 4 4 5 7 9 10

Military B156636 2 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 6 2 3 6 8 9

Machinery B156640 4 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 4 3 5 7 9 11 1.5

Machinery B156644 5 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 6 3 4 5 9 11 1.5

Machinery B156648 3 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 6 3 4 5 9 11 1.5

Machinery B156652 2 1-5-6-7-10-11-12 4 5 6 7 10 11 1.5

Machinery B156656 4 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 7 3 5 7 9 11 1.5

Machinery B156660 3 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 3 4 5 7 9 10 2

Machinery B156664 5 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 4 3 4 5 9 11 1.5

Machinery B156668 2 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 6 4 5 7 9 10 2

Machinery B156672 4 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 4 2 3 6 8 9 2

Machinery B156676 3 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 6 4 5 7 9 10 2

* Lead time is in days, normally distributed with a standard deviation of 1 day.


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)*

Batch

1.5 2 1.5 2 34 0.15 0.1 0.2 0.15

2 1.5 1.5 2 42.5 0.15 0.2 0.1 0.15

2 1.5 1.5 2 25.5 0.15 0.2 0.1 0.15

2 2 2 2 19 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2

1.5 2 1.5 2 34 0.15 0.1 0.2 0.15

1.5 2 1.5 2 27 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.15

2 1.5 1.5 2 42.5 0.15 0.2 0.1 0.15

1.5 2 1.5 2 18 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.15

1.5 2 1.5 1.5 34 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.15

1.5 2 1.5 2 27 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.15


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Batch

0.1 0.648074

0.1 0.724569

0.1 0.561249

0.1 0.52915

0.1 0.648074

0.2 0.676387

0.1 0.724569

0.2 0.552268

0.15 0.685565

0.2 0.676387


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SubContract Inhouse

MIL1001 A124512 A124580

MIL1001 A124553 A124566

MIL1001 A125533 A126612

MIL1001 A125524 A126555

Machine Division

SubContract Inhouse Mean Deviation Lead time days

MAC2001 B156625 B156612 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 #N/A

MAC2001 B156627 B156624 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 #N/A

MAC2001 B156628 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 #N/A

MAC2001 B156620 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 #N/A

MAC2002 B156627 B156616 1-5-6-7-10-11-12

MAC2002 B156629 B156632 1-4-5-7-9-10-12

MAC2002 B156631 B156636 1-2-3-6-8-9-12

MAC2002 B156640 1-3-5-7-9-11-12

MAC2002 B156648 1-3-4-5-9-11-12

Inhouse Inhouse in days

MAC2003 B156633 B156644 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 42.5 0.724569 6 1.770833 0.03019

MAC2003 B156637 B156652 1-5-6-7-10-11-12 19 0.52915 4 0.791667 0.022048

MAC2003 B156635 B156656 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 34 0.648074 7 1.416667 0.027003

3.979167


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RM lead time Subcontract in Days

6 14 3

4 14 3

7 16 3

17 44


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Count

1 Processing sequence Count

3 1-2-3-6-8-9-12 52 1-3-4-5-9-11-12 7

3 1-3-5-7-9-11-12 8

1 1-4-5-7-9-10-12 9

4 1-5-6-7-10-11-12 3

4

6

6

2 1-2-3-6-8-9- 5

1-3-4-5-9-11- 7

1-3-5-7-9-11- 8

1-4-5-7-9-10- 91-5-6-7-10-11- 3

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