Planning UES: Residential Single Family and Manufactured Home Heat Pump Water Heaters Christian...

Planning UES: Residential Single Family and Manufactured Home Heat Pump Water Heaters

Christian DouglassRegional Technical Forum

7/21/2015

2

Presentation Overview

Today we are seeking a decision from the RTF on the following residential HPWH measure updates:• Savings and costs – related to new

efficiency tier and baseline definition• Research strategy – proposed addition to

existing strategy

3

Measure OverviewMeasure Developers NEEA, Ecotope

CAT Review Christian Douglass

Tech Sub-Com Review Yes (6/18/2015)

R&E Sub-Com Review Yes (7/8/2015)

Notes • Measure last updated in November 2014• Current measure does not sunset until the end of

2015; however,• request to add new Tier 3 measure• additional research need identified for

research strategy• would like to address baseline issue, so

measure status can be set to “Active”

http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/subcommittees/hpwh/meetings.htm

http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/subcommittees/ResearchEval/meetings.asp

http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2014/11/HPWH_Provisional%20UES%20Update_2014-11-18_PROPOSED_v10.pptx

4

Subcommittee AttendanceTechnical Subcommittee

Christian Douglass, RTF Contract AnalystGeoff Wickes, NEEADane Christensen, NRELJim Maunder, Ravalli ElectricRick Knori, Lower Valley EnergyJanice Peterson, BPAAdam Hadley, RTF Contract AnalystJennifer Anziano, RTF ManagerGreg Kelleher, EWEBRobert Weber, BPAMike Baker, SBWMark Johnson, BPAAaron Winer, CLEAResultDave Baylon, EcotopeSarah Widder, PNNLDavid Murphy, BPA

R&E SubcommitteePhilip Kelsven, BPAMark Jerome, CLEAResultJames Domanski, CLEAResultBen Larson, EcotopeGreg Kelleher, EWEBPeter Miller, NRDCJim Perich-Anderson, Puget Sound EnergyRachel Clark, Tacoma PowerDavid Hales, WSU Energy Program Jennifer Anziano, RTF ManagerChristian Douglass, Contract AnalystAdam Hadley, Contract AnalystMohit Singh-Chhabra, Contract Analyst

5

Savings and Costs

6

Scope of This Update

• Adding additional performance tier (Tier 3) based on new product in the market– Affects savings and costs for Tier 3 and Tier 2, since new product can

perform at either level based on user settings– New product is the only HPWH currently available at Tier 2 or Tier 3

• Revising current practice baseline definition– Affects savings and costs for all measures

HPWH Market SnapshotEfficiency Tier Size (gal) ModelsTier 1 0-55 AO Smith SHPT-50

Rheem HB50>55 AO Smith SHPT-66

AO Smith SHPT-80Stiebel Eltron Accelera 220Stiebel Eltron Accelera 300

Tier 2 0-55 General Electric GEH50D*>55 General Electric GEH80D*

Tier 3 0-55 General Electric GEH50D**>55 General Electric GEH80D**

* Meets Tier 2 efficiency levels when set to default hybrid mode** Meets Tier 3 efficiency levels when set to Cold Climate Efficiency mode

8

Tier 2 / Tier 3 Performance Update• Updated HPWH performance characteristics (e.g.

COP curves, control schemes) in SEEM to reflect new Tier 2/Tier 3 product– Added Tier 3 performance characteristics and measures– Replaced current Tier 2 performance characteristics (based

on Airgenerate ATI) with those of new product– Kept Tier 1 performance characteristics the same

• Note: Performance characteristics were derived from lab tests of new product (i.e. not field tests)– This is relevant to the “Research Strategy” portion of

today’s presentation

Current Practice Baseline Update

Electric Resistance Water Heater (ERWH) can meet minimum Energy Factor for tanks 0 – 55 gal in size

Tier 1 Heat Pump Water Heater (HPWH) needed to meet minimum Energy Factor for tanks > 55 gal

• Current HPWH measure is “Under Review” due to uncertainty in baseline• Subcommittee discussed current practice baseline during 6/18 meeting• Key issue discussed: where to set baseline efficiency for various tank sizes in

light of the recent federal standard

April 2015 Federal Standard

10

Current Practice Baseline Update• At subcommittee, CAT proposed keeping baseline definition

simple and combining all tank sizes in a single baseline (and measure)– As a result, all HPWHs have some savings, even Tier 1 tanks >55 gal

• Why may there be savings for Tier 1 tanks >55 gal?– Strong arguments that the actual purchased HPWH size is not

necessarily equal to the tank size purchased in the counterfactual• Common to upsize a HPWH relative to a resistance tank (e.g. 50 gal

electric resistance to 60 gal HPWH)• Specific makes and models only come in certain sizes• Tank size is only one of many deciding factors (price, reliability, availability)

Current Practice Baseline Update• Feedback from subcommittee (and implementers

group):– Overwhelmingly supported concept of keeping the

baseline definition simple– Majority of subcommittee supported the CAT proposal and

combining all tank sizes– Some programs uncomfortable incenting >55 gal Tier 1

tanks, and would rather assume Tier 1 as the baseline. This means effectively that:

• All large HPWH purchases would have been large tank purchases in the counterfactual

• All small HPWH purchases would have been small tank purchases in the counterfactual

12

Current Practice Baseline Update: A Tale of Two Baselines

• In summary, we have two different program views of the baseline

• CAT’s proposal for today:– Include measure sets for both baselines, i.e. one measure set for “any

size tank” and one set for small (0-55) and large (>55) tanks separately• Part of measure specification will be that programs can use only one

measure set or the other• Proposal is pragmatic, not perfect

– Use future regional research that addresses this question, but not add to the existing RTF research strategy at this time

• Consistent with RTF direction provided in April of this year• Allows region to focus on more tangible research questions already

identified in the strategy

13

Summary of Baseline AssumptionsCurrent Practice Baseline

Description

Measure Identifier

Current Practice Baseline Assumption

Explanation of Baseline Assumption% ERWH

% Tier 1 HPWH

% Tier 2 HPWH

% Tier 3 HPWH

Small Tank / Large Tank

0-55 gallon tank 98 2 0 0

- HPWHs approximately 2% of electric storage water heater market share in the Northwest (for tanks 0-55 gallons), per NEEA market data

>55 gallon tank 0 80 20 0

- Assume Tier 1 HPWH as minimum baseline efficiency per the April 2015 federal standard

- Assume fraction of Tier 1 versus Tier 2 HPWHs based on current distribution of models available (slide 7).

Any Size Tank N/A 94 6 0 0

- Estimates penetration of HPWHs in the total electric tank market (all sizes)

- Next couple of slides explain the derivation of the assumed values

14

Any Size Tank Baseline: Explained• Starts with the following assumptions:

– Prior to the 2015 federal standard, eligible end users are choosing tank sizes in proportion to the RBSA stock

– HPWHs have a small fraction of market share (from NEEA market data) for both small and large tanks

0-55 gals >55 gals0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

HPWHERWH

Tank Size

Num

ber o

f End

Use

rs C

hoos

ing

a Pa

r-tic

ular

Con

figur

ation

1.5%

88.8%

0.1%

9.6%

15

Any Size Tank Baseline: Explained

• Then assume:– After the 2015 standard, 50% of large tank end users will

purchase large HPWHs, while 50% will purchase one or more small ER tanks

• Why 50%? This ensures that the sensitivity to savings is less than +/- 10% (turns out to be about +/- 7.5%)

• If we choose a fraction at one of the extremes (i.e. 0% or 100%), the impact to savings can be closer to +/- 15%

– The typical choices across all tank sizes will then be comprised of 6% HPWHs (1.5% + 0.1% + 9.6% * 0.5) and 94% ERWHs (88.8% + 9.6% * 0.5)

16Efficiency Tier Install Location Heating Zone HVAC Type Tank Size

Tier 1 Unconditioned Basement 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Any

Tier 1 Unconditioned Basement 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Small

Tier 1 Unconditioned Garage 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Any

Tier 1 Unconditioned Garage 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Small

Tier 1 Conditioned Interior, Non-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Any

Tier 1 Conditioned Interior, Non-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Small


Tier 2 Unconditioned Basement 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Small / Large


Tier 2 Unconditioned Garage 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Small / Large


Tier 2 Conditioned Interior, Non-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Small / Large

Tier 2 Conditioned Interior, Exhaust-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Any

Tier 2 Conditioned Interior, Exhaust-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Small / Large


Tier 3 Unconditioned Basement 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Small / Large


Tier 3 Unconditioned Garage 1 / 2 / 3 N/A Small / Large


Tier 3 Conditioned Interior, Non-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Small / Large

Tier 3 Conditioned Interior, Exhaust-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Any

Tier 3 Conditioned Interior, Exhaust-Ducted 1 / 2 / 3 Gas / Elec Res / Heat Pump Small / Large

Proposed Measure List Summary

17

Updated Savings:Any Size Tank, HZ1

gas gas gas resist resist resist hp hp hp gas gas resist resist hp hpTier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3Uncond Garage Uncond

BasementCond Indoor, Non-Ducted Cond Indoor, Exhaust Ducted

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Current Proposed

kWh

18




-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Current Proposed

kWh

19




-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Current Proposed

kWh

20

Updated Savings:0-55 gallons and >55 gallons, HZ1

gas

gas

gas

res

res

res

hp hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp

T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3Garage Base

mentIndoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust

DuctedGar Base Indoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust

Ducted0-55gallons >55gallons-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Current Proposed

kWh

21


gas

gas

gas

res

res

res

hp hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp




Ducted0-55gallons >55gallons

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Current Proposed

kWh

22


gas

gas

gas

res

res

res

hp hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp




Ducted0-55gallons >55gallons-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Current Proposed

kWh

23

Updated Costs: Any Size Tank, All HZs

Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3Non-Ducted Exhaust Ducted

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Current Proposed

$

24

Updated Costs: 0-55 gallons and >55 gallons, All HZs

Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3Non-Ducted Exhaust Ducted Non-Ducted Exhaust Ducted

0-55gallons >55gallons

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Current Proposed

$

25

Updated TRC B/C Ratios:Any Size Tank, HZ1

gas gas gas resist resist resist hp hp hp gas gas resist resist hp hpTier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier1 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3 Tier2 Tier3

Uncond Garage Uncond Basement

Cond Indoor, Non-Ducted Cond Indoor, Exhaust Ducted

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Current Proposed

TRC

B/C

Ratio

26





0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Current Proposed

TRC

B/C

Ratio

27





0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Current Proposed

TRC

B/C

Ratio

28

Updated TRC B/C Ratios :0-55 gallons and >55 gallons, HZ1

gas

gas

gas

res

res

res

hp hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp

T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T1 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3 T2 T3Garage Basement Indoor, Non-Ducted Indoor, Exhaust



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Current Proposed

TRC

B/C

Ratio

29


gas

gas

gas

res

res

res

hp hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Current Proposed

TRC

B/C

Ratio

30


gas

gas

gas

res

res

res

hp hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp gas

gas

res

res

hp hp




0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Current Proposed

TRC

B/C

Ratio

Delivery VerificationMeasure Specification

Delivery Verification Checklist

Component Specification Additional Notes HPWHsMeasure Identifiers

Efficiency Tier Tiers 1, 2, and 3 from NEEA's Northern Climate Heat Pump Water Heater Specification.

□ Check whether unit is installed in an unconditioned garage/basement or a conditioned interior space.

If unit is installed in conditioned interior space,

□ Check whether heating system is a gas furnace, resistance type (electric furnace or electric zonal) or a heat pump.

Install Location Unconditioned garage, unconditioned basement, conditioned interior.

□ Check whether exhaust air is ducted to the outside.

HVAC Type Gas, electric resistance (electric furnace or zonal), heat pump. Applies only to conditioned interior installs.

□ Check the heating zone.

Exhaust Ducting Ducted or unducted. Applies only to Tiers 2 and 3 and only conditioned interior installs.

Note: Delivery verification guidance for efficiency tier is provided below.

Heating Climate Zone

Heating Zones (HZs) 1, 2, and 3

Savings Baseline Current Practice N/AImplementation and Product Standards

NEEA Northern Climate Heat Pump Water Heater Specification

The specification and qualified products list (QPL) can be found at http://neea.org/northernclimatespec.

□ Check that unit is listed on the Northern Climate Specification QPL for the claimed efficiency tier or the unit meets all efficiency requirements of the Northern Climate specification for the claimed tier.

□ If tier qualification is dependent on operation mode, check that operation mode is set to the one required by the claimed tier.

Sunset Date 7/31/2016Sunset factors: Review market shifts and baseline assumptions.

32

Research Strategy

33

Background

• Res HPWH measure already has existing research strategy that was adopted at April 2015 RTF meeting– Existing strategy deals with HVAC interaction factor– Not proposing to open up this part of the strategy for

discussion

• Since then CAT has put research strategy in a new Word document template– No longer simply slides in a slide deck– Desire for research strategies to be stand-alone documents

with consistency in appearance and content for sharing with stakeholders

• Today’s proposal is to add a second objective to the existing strategy

http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2015/04/

34

Why do we need additional research?

• Up to this point, performance characteristics for all HPWH models within SEEM have been calibrated to field data to reflect “real world” performance and savings

• The problem is:– We know that new products entering the market may perform very

differently than those of the past– It is not sustainable ($$$) to collect field data for every new model

that enters the market

35

Why do we need additional research?

• We cannot calibrate HPWH performance to the DOE lab tests that are already being performed for each new model– DOE draw patterns are somewhat artificial and not

reflective of in situ draw patterns– Evidence that manufacturers “design to the tests” for

higher rated COPs– Ecotope compared lab calibrated results to field calibrated

results for older GE tank and found significant underestimation of resistance element use and overestimation of heat pump use

36

Proposed Research

Add an additional lab test to the existing

DOE test suite which uses “real world”

water draw patterns collected from field

data

Perform new lab test on two

older tanks for which we have

field data

Compare the calibrated

performance characteristics

resulting from the lab data to those resulting

from the field

If results compare well, use new lab

test moving forward to calibrate tank performance and energy savings

This is documented in more detail in the Research Strategy posted on the agenda.



37

Subcommittee Feedback

• Proposal was shared with both the technical HPWH Subcommittee and the Research and Evaluation Subcommittee

• Both subcommittees were satisfied with the approach

38

Proposed Motion

“For the Residential Single Family and Manufactured Home HPWH UES measure, I _________ move the RTF:

• Approve the measure updates as presented;• Adopt the revised research strategy;• Keep the Category at Planning;• Change the Status to Active;• Set the sunset date to 7/31/2016.”

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