PLANNING POLICY AND EMISSIONS REDUCTION: - The National
Transcript of PLANNING POLICY AND EMISSIONS REDUCTION: - The National
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PLANNING POLICY AND EMISSIONS REDUCTION: DO THE RESULTS MATCH THE HYPE?
Timothy F. Welch
University of Maryland
National Center for Smart
Growth Research and Education
ACSP
53rd Annual Conference
November 2, 2012
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The Imperative
Reduce GHG emissions and atmospheric C02Concentrations before 450PPM
– To hold a +2oc global temprature change
– Avoid catastrophic anthropomorphic climate destabilization
R² = 0.9916
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
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450
460
CO
2 (
PP
M)
Year
CO2 Concentration 450 (PPM) 350 (PPM) CO2 TrendAtmospheric CO2,Mauna Loa Observatory (Scripps / NOAA / ESRL)
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New Evidence
• Total amount of CO2 that can be emitted between 2000 and 2050
• 80% chance of maintaining a 2oC warming (compared to pre-industrial period)
886gigatons
• From 2000 to 2011:
• 337gigatons CO2emitted
549gigatons
• of CO2 left for next 38 years
M. Meinshausen et al., Nature 458, 1158 (2009).
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Research Questions
• How likely are state climate strategies to meet
GHG reduction policy goals?
• How well do the policies conform to the new
evidence on needed GHG reduction needs?
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Policy TargetsInternational Origin
IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report - Annex I
(developed) countries need to reduce GHG
emissions 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020,
and 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050, in order
to stabilize below 450 ppm CO2-eq
concentration, after a temporary overshoot by
50 ppm
IPCC AR4 WGIII. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. WGIII Contribution
to the IPCC AR4 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007), chapter 13, Box 13.7 on
page 776.
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Policy TargetsNational Policies
ACT TARGET
Climate Stewardship Act of 2007 (Olver-Gilchrest) H.R.620 &
H.R. 4226 (Died – at Introduction and Committee, respectively)70% below 1990 level in
2050
Global Warming Reduction Act of 2007 (Kerry-Snowe) S.485
(Failed)62% below 1990 level in
2050
Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act
(McCain-Lieberman) S.280 (Failed – 2003/5/7)60% below 1990 level in
2050
Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act (Sanders-Boxer) S.
309 (Proposed - 2007)80% below 1990 level in
2050
Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2008, S.3036
(Died in Senate)71% below 2005 level in
2050
American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (Waxman)
H.R. 2454 (Died in Senate)83% below 2005 level in
2050
Executive Branch – EPA can regulate CO2 as a pollutant
Pledge to the United Nations17% below 2005 level in
2020
Energy Tax Prevention Act of 2011 (Upton) H.R.910 (Passed
House – April 07, 2011)Bars EPA from taking
any GHG related action
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Policy TargetsState Policies
6
1 1 1
12
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2010 2012 2015 2017 2020 2025
1st Target date
0123456789
10
10%
below
1990
5%
below
1990
1990 2000 2005 15%
below
2005
20%
below
2005
25%
below
2006
30%
below
buiness
as usual
1st Taret Level n=23
7
2
1 1
7
0
2
4
6
8
2020 2025 2035 2040 2050
2nd Target date
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 10%
below
1990
25%
below
1990
60%
below
1990
75%
below
1990
80%
below
1990
10%
below
2000
50%
below
2000
80%
below
2001
30%
below
2005
80%
below
2005
80%
below
2006
2nd Taret Level n=18
Source: Author’s Calculations
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Policy TargetsMaryland Policy
GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION ACT OF 2009
• Reduce statewide GHG emissions 25% from 2006 levels by 2020
• By 2011 MDE to:
– develop a 2006 Statewide greenhouse gas emissions inventory;
– develop a projected “business as usual” emissions inventory for 2020; and
– develop/publish for public comment a proposed plan
• Adopt final plan to achieve reductions, by 2012
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GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION ACT OF 2009
• Plan must ensure:
– no loss of existing jobs in the State’s manufacturingsector;
– net increase in State jobs
– net economic benefit to the State’s economy;
– opportunities for new “green” jobs in the energy and low carbon technology fields; and
– no adverse impact on the reliability and affordability of electricity service and fuel supplies
Policy TargetsMaryland Policy
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Kaya Identity
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Population
Per Capita GDP
Energy Intensity
Carbon Intensity
1
2
3
4
XX
XX
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Current Strategies• T-1. Maryland Clean Cars Program
• T-2. National Medium- & Heavy-Duty Fuel Efficiency Standard
• T-3. Clean Fuels Standard
• T-4. Transportation and Climate Initiative
• T-5. Public Transportation Initiatives*
• T-6. Double Transit Ridership by 2020*
• T-7. Intercity Transportation Initiatives*
• T-8. Bike and Pedestrian Initiatives*
• T-9. Pricing Initiatives
• T-10. Transportation Technology Initiatives
• T-11. Electric Vehicle Initiatives
• T-12. Low Emitting Vehicle Initiatives
• T-13. Evaluating GHG Emissions from Major New Projects
• T-14. Airport Initiatives
• T-15. Port Initiatives
• T-16. Freight and Freight Rail Strategies
• T-17. Renewable Fuels Standard*
• T-18. CAFE Standards (MY2008-2011)
• T-19. Promote Hybrid & Electric Vehicles
• T-20. Pay-As-You-Drive Insurance
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Target in Context
• In 2010– Total GHG reduction less than 9% in midst of greatest recession
since 1930s
– 26% industrial reduction, due to lower activity
– 15% power plant reduction, due to natural gas prices
– 6.5% transport, less commuting less activity
– Increases in commercial and residential
• All likely temporary reductions, 2011-12 expect increases
• Recommended reductions greater than entire GHG output of:– Commercial,
– Residential,
– Industrial,
sectors combined
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Baseline/Current/Target GHG
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5
10
15
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40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Maryland Commercial Industrial Residential Transportation Electric Power
MM
T C
O2
2006
2010
2020 Target
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Energy Consumption by Source
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Av
era
ge
MP
G
Year
Historical CAFE Standards and Average US Fleet Economy
LDV MPG
New Method
CAFE
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Price Assumption
0
0.5
1
1.5
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2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0
50
100
150
200
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300
Ga
s P
rice
(p
er
gall
on
)
CP
I
Year
CPI (projected) Annual (Ave.) CPI Gas Price (nominal)
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R² = 0.9881
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Av
era
ge
MP
G
Year
Historical & Projected CAFE Standards and Average US
Fleet Economy CAFE
LDV MPG
Poly. (LDV MPG)
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Inventory and Goals
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
CO
2 (
ton
s/d
ay
)
CO2 By County
2006 2020 2020 Target (SHARE)
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$0.08
$0.09
$0.10
$0.11
$0.12
$0.13
$0.14
$0.15
$0.16
AO
C (
$/m
ile
)
Year
Scenario Auto Operating Cost ($/mi, 2000 Constant Dollars)
BAU Gas Tax ($0.50) Gas Tax ($2.00) VMT Tax ($0.50)
VMT Tax ($2.00) CO2 Tax ($25/ton) CO2 Tax ($50/ton) CO2 Tax ($75/ton)
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2006/2020/Target(Statewide Implementation)
R² = 0.9005
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
Yea
rly
CO
2e
(M
MT
)
Year
Transportation GHG Emissions
Historic
Baseline
2020
Proportional
Target
Gas Tax
($0.50)
Gas Tax
($2.00)
VMT Tax
($0.50)
VMT Tax
($2.00)
CO2 Tax
($25/ton)
CO2 Tax
($50/ton)
CO2 Tax
($75/ton)
Power
(Historic)
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2006/2020/Target(Statewide Implementation)
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
Yea
rly
CO
2e
(M
MT
)
Year
Transportation GHG Emissions
Historic
Baseline 2020
Proportional Target
Gas Tax ($0.50)
Gas Tax ($2.00)
VMT Tax ($0.50)
VMT Tax ($2.00)
CO2 Tax ($25/ton)
CO2 Tax ($50/ton)
CO2 Tax ($75/ton)
Efficiency (65mpg)
Hybrid Max
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2006/2020/Target(Statewide Implementation)
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
Yea
rly
CO
2e
(M
MT
)
Year
Transportation GHG Emissions
Historic
Baseline 2020
Proportional Target
Gas Tax ($0.50)
Gas Tax ($2.00)
VMT Tax ($0.50)
VMT Tax ($2.00)
CO2 Tax ($25/ton)
CO2 Tax ($50/ton)
CO2 Tax ($75/ton)
Efficiency (65mpg)
Required Target
Hybrid Max
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Conclusions/Recommendations
• Establishing ‘fantastical and magical’ strategies and targets only distracts from important policy goals
• Provides a ‘way out’ for policy makers– By looking tough, but doing little
– Likely a set-up in many states for a cap and trade program to generate revenue
• Need to formulate a multitude of realistic strategies, test and incrementally ramp-up or replace
• Policy formulation through jurisdictional convergence– As opposed to “set it and forget it” mentality
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Conclusions/Recommendations
Jurisdiction Planned
Target Year
Year CO2 Budget
Exceeded
(w/o CAP)
Year CO2 Budget
Exceeded
(w/ CAP)
Maryland 2020 2027 2029
United States 2050 2028 2031
World 2050 2026 2033
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Conclusions/Recommendations
• For Maryland to do its part in keeping 20C within 20% probability
– Can only emit 1,113 Mt CO2 from 2012 – 2050
• Compared to current trend: 2,754 Mt CO2
• And current CAP: 2,318 Mt CO2
– Need to aggressively change target
• From: 25% below 2006 by 2020
• To: 70% below 2006 by 2020
• Or: 68% below 1990 from 2020 – 2050
– AND HOLD CONSTANT
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Conclusions
To keep 80% chance of 2oC pre-industrial:
• Not only do the likely policy results not match
the ‘hype’
• The hype does not match the need
Jurisdiction Target Year Reduction Year Percent Below Avg. Annual Reduction
(from 2012)
Maryland 2020 2006 70% 8% (65%)
United States 2033 1990 80% 3.73% (82%)
World 2039 1990 80% 3.23% (87%)