Planning for the Threat Southern New England Hurricane ... · The Earthquake Program in FEMA Region...

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Planning for the Threat

Southern New England

Hurricane Evacuation Study

Paul Morey

Earthquake/Hurricane

Program Manager

FEMA Region I - Boston

Evacuation and

Planning Factors

Source: NOAA/NWS

Hatteras is too late!

Begin protective actions

Large wind field

Extreme forward speed

Decreased evacuation

decision time

Forecast Uncertainty

Evacuation and Protective

Actions

Widespread Wind, flood and Surge Event!

Goal: To provide emergency management officials

sound data that will inform them in hurricane

evacuation planning and decision-making

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Roles and Responsibilities

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• Coordination • Subject Matter Expertise • Training

• Project Management • Training • Tech Support •Subject Matter Expertise

• SLOSH Basin Development • Tech Support •Training •Subject Matter Expertise

Local Hurricane

Plans

State Evac and Support plans

Regional Ops and Support

plans

National Planning and

Ops

HES

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Hurricane Evacuation Studies (HES) H

azar

ds

An

alys

is

• SLOSH Model Development

• Surge MOMS

• Surge Maps

• Evacuation Zones

Vu

lner

abili

ty A

nal

ysis

• Identify at risk

• Populations

• Infrastructure

• Critical Facilities

• Local Planning Data

Beh

avio

ral A

nal

ysis

• Public Survey

• Analysis of Survey Responses

• Results for Input into Shelter and Trans Analysis

Shel

ter

An

alys

is

• Determining the Shelter Need

• Estimate Number of Shelter Spaces

• Potential Vulnerability

• Shelter Need or Shelter Deficit

Tran

spo

rtat

ion

An

alys

is

• Analysis of Traffic Volumes, Evac Routes, and Destinations

• Traffic Patterns

• Evacuation Clearance Times

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1-2 2 3-5 Shadow

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of R

esp

on

se

s

Evacuation Zone

A Overall With Order

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Hazards Analysis Understanding Storm Surge Potential

• Storm surge has the highest

potential for death and damage

• Storm surge is the main reason

we evacuate the coast

• Hurricane Evacuation Studies

utilize SLOSH for storm surge

estimation

Hurricane Ike Damage, TX. Photo: FEMA Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times

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Storm Surge Atlas Providing a picture of the maximum storm surge vulnerability

Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times

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Evacuation Zones How does an Emergency Manager communicate storm surge risk to

the public?


NYC Directional Atlas

NYC Hurricane Evacuation Zones

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Vulnerability Analysis Helping coastal decision makers identify risk and populations that

may need to evacuate

• Citizens residing in surge

prone areas

• Critical facilities

• Mobile/Manufactured

home communities

• Vulnerable Shelters

• Roadway network,

bridges, critical facilities

• Other areas to be

considered?

Identifies who/what will be affected?

Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation

Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times

Hurricane Behavioral Analysis



SOURCES OF INFORMATION

U. S. CENSUS

Population Size

Demographics

Household

Composition

Home Tenancy

Language

Vehicles

BEHAVIORAL STUDY

Attitudes About Risk

Hurricane Experience

Sources of Information

Evacuation Decision Process

Evacuation Intent

Transportation Needs

Evacuation Destination

Evacuation Route

Return Expectations



Some Key Findings

Serious under-concern about surge

Evacuation intent over-stated

Evacuation intent highest (and better predictor of actual behavior) For major storms

For mandatory or ordered evacuations

For households with children

With recent real hurricane experience

Often get “False Experience” effect Earl/Irene/Sandy?



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Shelter Analysis Understanding Shelter Need

Key Sheltering Issues:

• Location/Identification

• Capacity

• Response Rates

• ARC vs. Local Shelter

• Pet Friendly



Inputs

Demographics

Behavioral

Assumptions

Evacuation Routes

Levels of Service

(Roadway Capacities)

Travel Destinations

Evacuation Scenarios

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Transportation Analysis The Transportation Analysis utilizes data produced by the other

analysis to determine traffic congestion and clearance times



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Transportation Analysis Helping coastal decision makers understand traffic congestion

potential based upon evacuation decisions

Products of the Transportation

Analysis

• Traffic Patterns (bottle necks)

• Evacuating Vehicles

• Clearance Time tables

• Variables of:

• Response

• Population

• Evacuation Scenarios

(one way, Multi state)



Clearance Time = 48hrs

Mobilization Time

Travel Time

Queuing Delay Time (traffic)

Evacuation Decision Time

L= -48 L=0 L= -36 L= -24 L= -18 L= -12 L= -6 L=+6 L=+12 L=+18 L=+26

Hazards

Forecasted Landfall of TS winds or Hazards


Evacuation Clearance Times Timeline

HES in HURREVAC

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• Hazards Analysis

• Vulnerability Analysis

• Behavioral Surveys

• Shelter Analysis

• Transportation Analysis

Technical Data Reports – Paper and ITDR Detailed reports of the following analyses:


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• Decision Assistance Tool

• Overlay with Evacuation

Zones

• Better Communication with

the Public

• Easier Surge Product for

EM’s to Use

New Experimental Storm Surge Inundation

Graphic


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• Surge Inundation Maps:

Complete and delivered to CT,

RI and MA.

• Evacuation Zones: Complete

for RI, draft maps delivered to

MA and CT. Awaiting edits by

local EM’s.

• Behavioral Analysis:

Complete for CT, RI and MA.

Awaiting final reports.

• Shelter Analysis: Underway in

CT, RI and MA.

• Vulnerability Analysis:

Underway in CT, RI and MA.

• Transportation Analysis:

Underway in CT, RI and MA.

Status of SNE HES – Complete and delivered by July 1, 2014


FEMA Region I Earthquake

Program

Paul Morey

Earthquake/Hurricane Program Manager

FEMA Region I - Boston

Photos courtesy of USGS and the Weston Observatory

The Risk is Real!

National risk

Regional risk

Local risk

Photos courtesy of USGS and Tufts University

1638 Central New Hampshire – 6.5-

7.0

1755 Offshore Cape Ann – 6.0 – 7.0

1869 Eastern ME – 5.7

1940 Ossipee NH – 5.5

Photos courtesy of USGS and the Weston Observatory

Old port cities like Boston built on fill

Christchurch, New Zealand

Boston then….and now…

Photos courtesy of Tufts University and CNN

Aging infrastructure

URM Fire and Police Stations

URM Schools

Port/Industrial Facilities

Winter Weather

Urban Conflagration Secondary Effects

Tourist Population/Sheltering Photos courtesy of CNN and Boston Globe

NEHRP – National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

• Four agency partnership

• Work encompasses research, development, and implementation

activities

• Implementation activities are conducted primarily by FEMA

• Model building code standards

• Mitigation training and state/local support

• Publications – Seismic rehabilitation

• Outreach, technical assistance, ShakeOut, Hazus, Tsunami

Addressing the Risk

The Earthquake Program in FEMA Region I

• Strong partnerships

• State and local EM’s and planners

• NESEC Executive Director and Board

• State Geologists

• Academia (BC, Tufts, UMASS, Northeastern…)

• State and local building officials

• Hospitals

• Private sector (Nedrix)

Photos courtesy of FEMA and AP

Addressing the Risk

The Earthquake Program in FEMA Region I

Examples of NETAP training:

• FEMA 154 Rapid Visual Screening of

Buildings for Potential Seismic

Hazards combined with ATC 20 Post

earthquake Safety Evaluation of

Buildings

• E-74 Reducing the Risks of

Nonstructural Earthquake Damage

• FEMA P-767 Earthquake Mitigation

for Hospitals

Hazus Analysis of 11 Scenario Earthquakes in New England

• Working group members from federal

and state agencies, academia and the

private sector.

• Utilized FEMA’s Hazus loss estimation

software combined with USGS

ShakeMaps as the hazard input.

• Summary packets with various loss

estimation data such as building,

critical facility, and transportation

system damage.

State Support to Maine and Vermont

• Vermont seismic hazard mapping and

NETAP outreach to critical facility owners.

• Maine inventory of critical facilities using

FEMA 154 methodology entered into Hazus.

Photos courtesy of USGS and VT ANR

The Great Northeast ShakeOut

• Over 300,000 registered participants in 2013!

• Already over 52,000 signed up for 2014.

• Drill will be held October 16th at 10:16AM.

• Sign up at www.shakeout.org/northeast

Questions?

Photos courtesy of USGS, FEMA and the AP

Planning for the Threat Southern New England Hurricane ... · The Earthquake Program in FEMA Region...

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