Planning for Electricity Access - World Bank
Transcript of Planning for Electricity Access - World Bank
1 P l a n n i n g f o r E l E c t r i c i t y a c c E s s
THE BOTTOM LINE
that “electricity for all” campaigns around the globe often fall short of their targets is partly a failure of planning. in the area of generation and transmission, technical changes could improve the handling of key constraints, such as fuel availability, funding, and the rate of building. Planning for distribution networks could be improved by gathering data on end-use demand and deploying geospatial tools. Most important of all, the entire planning process—from generation to distribution—must be better coordinated if access plans are to be successful.
2014/35
A K N O W L E D G E N O T E S E R I E S F O R T H E E N E R G Y & E X T R A C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E
Planning for Electricity Access Why is this issue important?
Better planning can improve the success rate of programs to expand access to electricity
With about 1.2 billion people around the world still lacking electricity, access to reliable power remains a global development challenge. However, “Electricity for All” programs in many countries of South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America are behind schedule. India, for example, had originally set the goal of achieving 100 percent electrification by 2012, but a quarter of its population, or more than 300 million people, are still without access to any form of modern energy services.1 The new government has recently announced a revised target of 2022. In Sub-Saharan Africa, nearly 600 million people—two-thirds of the region’s total population—and 10 million small and medium-sized enterprises have no access to electricity. Per capita electricity consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) averages only about 124 kWh a year, barely 1 percent of typical consumption in high-income countries and hardly enough to power one light bulb per person for six hours a day. The region (again excluding South Africa) consumes as much electricity each year as the state of New York (IEA 2010).
Lack of access to modern energy services is a major impediment to efforts to reduce extreme poverty. It impedes education—for example, because children are unable to study at night—and saps productivity and competitiveness because businesses, markets, and clinics must restrict their operating hours.
Solving the problem is not a simple matter. The level of effort needed to enhance access is immense. Notwithstanding significant
1 The failure to meet targets in India and many other countries can be tracked to generation and fuel supply constraints that were overlooked or ignored when targets were set.
progress made between 1990 and 2010, the pace of electrification must double in order to reach 100 percent electrification by 2030— a goal set by the United Nations General Assembly in 2012 (World Bank 2013). And, ironically, achieving meaningful improvement in energy access will require raising the very low per capita consump-tion targets that are often part of Electricity for All programs (Bazilian and Pielke 2013).
Finally, more extensive and realistic planning that takes into account physical, financial, and institutional constraints—will be needed to improve the effectiveness of electricity access programs by devising a technology mix and schedule that are more likely to be achievable. There is also ample room for better planning to select the best mix of grid and off-grid distribution.
This note highlights the importance of coordinating planning activities across the electricity supply chain from generation to demand, including new connections, to better plan for electricity access.
What is the key challenge?
Electricity planning in most developing nations suffers from common shortcomings
Planning for generation and transmission typically includes preparation of a master plan every three to five years, comple-mented in many cases by annual or biannual national plans from the energy ministry. Most such plans—which are too often based on the aspirations of governments and on political considerations—have done no more than provide a broad guide, typically a schedule for the installation of additional capacity that quickly proves overopti-mistic and falls behind for lack of investment. Planning in Bangladesh and India, for instance, has not reflected the serious primary energy
Debabrata Chattopadhyay is a senior energy specialist in the World Bank’s Energy
and Extractives Global Practice.
Rahul Kitchlu is an energy specialist in the Energy and Extractives Global Practice (Africa Unit).
Rhonda L. Jordan is an energy specialist in the Energy and Extractives Global Practice.
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2 P l a n n i n g f o r E l E c t r i c i t y a c c E s s
“Off-grid programs are
too often introduced
with the unexamined
assumption that the grid
will not reach parts of the
country for many years
and that the per capita
power consumption of
low-income households
will remain at a subsistence
level.”
crunch that has cut back gas and coal generation. Assumptions about the rate at which generation and transmission assets will be built have almost never been met in either country. As generation lags behind, transmission and distribution assets go underused and access to electricity is not expanded.
The off-grid programs (such as solar home systems) that have emerged to fill the vacuum are relatively expensive, have their own share of problems of reliability and quality, and ultimately do not expand access beyond basic household needs. Although such approaches may be a necessary part of an overall access plan, they are too often introduced with the unexamined assumption that the grid will not reach parts of the country for many years and that the per capita power consumption of low-income households will remain at a subsistence level. There are some exceptions. Bangladesh’s solar-home-system program has filled an important niche in face of severely constrained electricity supply. Off-grid programs implemented by the private sector on market principles are more sustainable than similar programs operated by grid utilities with capital and operating subsidies. But when they are implemented outside the purview of grid utilities, the latter cannot integrate them into their planning.
Planning of distribution systems is limited or nonexistent in most countries, even among the top-performing state utilities. Insufficient information on existing and new customers (including off-grid demand) makes it impossible to estimate future demand. Decisions about grid extension and off-grid electrification are driven by policy targets, with only limited planning and analysis to guide the operation of the system (World Bank 2014), the selection of transmission and distribution components, and the optimization of grid extension with off-grid solutions. An assumption typically implicit in planning of distribution assets is that the available supply of electricity will be adequate, which is not necessarily true. When supply proves inadequate, the utility usually ends up buying power at an exorbitant rate, building small and expensive diesel-powered generation plants or falling back on solar home systems and other off-grid solutions. Meanwhile, firms expand their reliance on back-up generation.
In short, even when rural electrification programs succeed in erecting poles and wires, supply in many cases has been too unreli-able to provide meaningful service, especially for economic activities.
What solutions are available?
More ground-level data and better coordination of planning processes will improve outcomes
Traditional planning tools and processes in electricity generation and high-voltage transmission are generally adequate but could be improved to better capture constraints that either were historically absent (for example, the intermittency of certain renewables) or were not binding enough to invalidate planning outcomes (for example, the supply of gas and oil). Bangladesh presents an example where the planning studies undertaken in 2005 largely missed the impend-ing gas shortage, anticipating more than 21 GW of new gas-based capacity in the base case (NEXANT 2005/06). The subsequent master plan developed in 2010 corrected for this problem to some extent (JICA 2011). The resulting plan was much more diversified, with domestic and imported coal accounting for more than half of the planned capacity.
Much better coordination of generation and transmission is needed, especially as power networks in the developing world become more interconnected (within regions of a single country, between countries, or among several countries in a given region).2 Similar enhancements are needed to anticipate and account for cross-border power trading, where this already exists or may be advantageous. India’s Central Electricity Authority has for decades relied on a sequential planning process that tailors transmission to generation without placing sufficient emphasis on grid-reinforcement projects that could reduce the need for peaking generation in some parts of the network. In its latest national electricity plan, the author-ity partly remedied the problem by developing subregional grids to reduce system costs (CEA 2012). Recent planning efforts in India demonstrate a more explicit recognition of the additional investment needed for grid reinforcement. However, recognition remains limited of cross-border power trading opportunities that could help India address the problem of access to electricity.
Finally, the forecasting of demand must be drastically improved. Historically, demand for electricity has been assumed to correlate strongly with economic growth. While the gross domestic product
2 Such coordination between generation and transmission is not easy to achieve because of increasing institutional separation and because financing may come from different sources.
3 P l a n n i n g f o r E l E c t r i c i t y a c c E s s
“Decisions about grid
extension and off-grid
electrification are driven
by policy targets, with
only limited planning
and analysis to guide the
operation of the system.
And planning of distribution
systems is virtually
nonexistent in most
countries, even among
the top-performing state
utilities.”
provides a helpful guide to aggregate demand, “hot spots” often are not captured. Accurate demand estimates depend on realistic estimates of disaggregated demand, including suppressed demand. Preparing such forecasts may involve a significantly higher level of effort. But as the work by Parshall and others (2009) and ongoing work at the Columbia University Sustainable Engineering Lab (http://sel.columbia.edu/projects/) make clear, this approach has the potential, by integrating network planning with demographic data, to produce realistic supply plans and to blur, to the extent possible, the boundaries between distribution and upstream generation and transmission.
New bottom-up approaches for demand estimates, such as planning tools based on geospatial data, should be incorporated wherever the requisite information is available or can be developed with relatively little effort. This is particularly important in planning distribution networks. With bottom-up approaches, planners can gather substantially more information on customers (for example, the location and income level of households) and then use structured analysis to gain a detailed view of demand and, on the basis of that analysis, decide on the best way to extend the grid or to rely on off-grid solutions, as the case may be.3 The costs of connecting new customers to the grid must be properly accounted for in determining the best course of action. Where those costs are underestimated, superior off-grid solutions may be undermined.
The importance of strategic and operational planning has been recognized in the last decade. Hawkins (2007, 2009) presented early ideas for improving distribution-network planning using General Electric’s SmallWorld software. Introduced in 2009/10, SmallWorld (GE 2010) uses spatial information to help planners understand where new networks should be targeted, where additional investment is required to meet forecasted demand for capacity, and where a business justification for investments in network upgrades may be needed. Network companies and distribution utilities in developed countries have begun to rely on these tools to support the business cases they present to regulators.
The concept of planning based on geographic information systems (GIS) has also been applied in developing nations such as
3 Again, the efforts and costs involved in developing GIS datasets and tools can be quite extensive, especially in a developing country. Nevertheless, geospatial planning has been suc-cessfully implemented in several developing nations, as discussed further on.
Kenya to gather and analyze information on where and how people live so as to improve their access to services and markets (Parshall and others 2009). Min and others (2013) report findings of a World Bank–funded research effort to use night-imagery data gathered by the U.S. Air Force’s Defense Meteorological Satellite Program to monitor power consumption in more than a thousand villages in Senegal and Mali. This is a relatively new but promising area in which significant effort is needed to develop and integrate the necessary data across jurisdictions to improve system-level planning and merge traditional engineering-focused methods of distribution planning with geospatial planning. For more examples of research on geospatial applications to power-system planning, see box 1.
Ideally, geospatial planning tools should be developed not at the utility level but at the national level. The scale of such an operation, including the need for coordination across relevant sectors (water, electricity, roads, telecommunications) poses a significant challenge. Real-life implementation of geospatial planning has tended to focus on individual sectors and to be confined to relatively small areas within a country. In an ongoing World Bank project in Nigeria, a geo-spatial least-cost model is being developed for a small region within the country by digitizing the existing grid network and overlaying it with technical, demographic, and economic data. The technical data elements needed for efficient distribution network planning analysis are digital mapping of the grid network and information on demand, supply (load), and resource availability. Necessary demographic data include population density and growth patterns (urban and rural sprawl), and social institutions (health centers, schools, government offices). Also needed are data on customers’ ability and willingness to pay for electricity based on poverty trends, household incomes and expenditures, and commercial and industrial activity. This extensive data set is created using simple and modern mapping techniques based on a GIS-embedded global positioning system.
The critical areas in which planning must improve if it is to address access in a rigorous way are summarized in figure 1.
Before sound distribution planning can be initiated, generation and transmission planners must have access to bottom-up forecasts that capture realistic demand and supply inputs. Planners need to realize that, to be meaningful and sustainable, access to electricity should be conceived not as a steady state of subsistence consump-tion but rather in terms of rising demand over time (World Bank 2013;
4 P l a n n i n g f o r E l E c t r i c i t y a c c E s s
“By combining GIS-based
data with conventional
distribution-network
planning tools (such
as load-flow software),
designs for distribution
networks can be made
to reflect real conditions
on the ground and thus
provide guidance on the
best way to enhance
access.”
Bazilian and Pielke 2013). They should also realize that generation and transmission plans have often failed to recognize constraints on the growth of generating capacity.
Planning of the medium- and low-voltage (MV/LV) distribution network, in turn, should be based on the forecast availability of electricity at the substation level for the forecast years. The level of availability will drive decisions to extend the grid or to rely on off-grid solutions. An important element in such planning is the extent of locally available renewable resources that may either be connected to the grid or become part of off-grid solutions (mini- and microgrids). Excellent planning tools, such as HOMER (http://www.homerenergy.com/), are available to help planners make the right decisions. By combining GIS-based data with conventional distribution-network planning tools (such as load-flow software), designs for distribution networks can be made to reflect real conditions on the ground and thus provide guidance on the best way to enhance access (Hawkins 2007, 2009).
Although not explicitly the focus of this note, the commercial viability of distribution companies, especially in countries where utilities have been privatized, is an important aspect of effective planning. Least-cost approaches, properly used, can help maintain the financial health of the sector, while incorporating affordability and other sociopolitical objectives through a system of graduated tariffs and subsidies. Once technical aspects are identified and planned, private distribution companies can be incentivized to make invest-ments in infrastructure such as substations, transformers, MV/LV line extensions, and so on, through a system of capital subsidies using a combination of direct subsidies (capital buydowns), indirect subsidies (tax credits, amortization allowances, trade and import incentives), and output-based allocations (connection subsidies). Targeted support (such as for pro-poor and gender-based policies) can be offered to distribution companies to recover the ongoing cost of supply and maintenance of assets through a combination of direct tariff subsidies (for households that consume small amounts of power) or cross-sub-sidization by consumers of larger amounts of power.
Box 1. Major research efforts in geospatial planning
Despite promising beginnings, geospatial planning is still in the research and development stage. These three research groups are among those most active in the area:
• The Earth Institute at Columbia University has undertaken significant geospatial planning exercises over the past 10 years in several countries of Africa, Asia, and Oceania—including India, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Kenya (Parshall and others 2009); Liberia (Modi and others 2009); and Senegal. Under the leadership of Professor Vijay Modi, the Earth Institute is also implementing an ongoing Bank-supported program in Nigeria that is piloting geospatial least-cost planning in selected distribution zones while ensuring that the sector master plan is developed and updated in coordination with the distribution plan.
• Professor Ignacio Perez-Arriaga of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Universidad Pontifícia de Comillas is currently undertaking research on a comprehensive modeling framework to combine GIS data on households, a “reference electricity model” for the design of networks, and an energy planning model to analyze the impact of access policies across the economy (Perez-Arriaga 2014).
• KTH Division of Energy Systems analysis (KTH/dESA), under the leadership of Professor Mark Howells, has performed analyses based on geospatial planning for the 2015 World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency. Their recent work in Nigeria, for example, includes an extensive analysis of high- and medium-voltage network expansion compared with off-grid solutions (Howells 2014).
5 P l a n n i n g f o r E l E c t r i c i t y a c c E s s
“Future R&D efforts should
be directed not only at
enhancing specialized
tools, but at improving
how those tools can be
effectively coordinated to
support the development
and execution of a long-
term access strategy.”
Figure 1. Planning framework for electricity access
Source: World Bank.
Inte
grat
ion
Demand informed by bottom-up forecasts
Realistic constraints on investment, primary resources, rate of build, intermittency of renewables, policy targets, etc.
Detailed demographic data
Realistic constraints on investment, availability, uncertainties around generation development, right-of-way, and cross-border power trading across countries/regions
Generation plan
Bottom-up GIS-baseddemand forecast
Geospatial medium/lowvoltage network plan
High voltage transmissiongrid plan
Consideration of proximity to grid, economies of scale in MV/LV/Single-Wire-Earth Return Local renewable resources availableOff-grid options available
What have we learned?
Understanding demand and integrated planning are the royal road to expanding access to electricity
The persistent failure of “electricity for all” campaigns around the globe to meet their targets demonstrates that increasing access to electricity is a challenge not fully understood. Institutional weak-nesses, political interference, and the need for financing have all been identified as components of the challenge. But sound technical planning deserves no less attention. Even in the mature area of planning for generation and transmission, where the key ingredients already exist for better planning, small changes could improve the prospects of success of efforts to widen access to electricity. Defter handling of key constraints, such as fuel availability, funding, and the rate of building, would allow generation and transmission master plans to better guide access strategies. There is an equally pressing
need to improve the planning of distribution networks by deploying geospatial tools to gather and analyze data on end-use demand.
Most essential of all, the generation, transmission, and distribu-tion components need to be well coordinated if access plans are to be meaningful. No universally agreed methodology or planning tool yet exists to facilitate the necessary coordination. Future R&D efforts, as well as project planning by the World Bank and other donors, should be directed not only at enhancing specialized planning tools, but at improving how those tools can be effectively coordinated to support the development and execution of a long-term access strategy. A more holistic approach to project planning would seem to be indicated, both nationally and from the World Bank’s perspective. Small, individual Bank projects probably will not be as effective in widening access to electricity as a continuous project that supports GIS system development over a period of, say, 10 years.
6 P l a n n i n g f o r E l E c t r i c i t y a c c E s s
Available tools, properly used, can also inform policy interven-tions by governments and support the mobilization of resources (public, private, and donor-funded) behind access initiatives. There are many potential impediments to successful implementation of such initiatives, including political and social barriers. But a case backed by scientific data, rigorously gathered, will always have a better chance of overcoming these barriers.
References
ADB (Asian Development Bank). 2014. “Quantum Leap in Wind Power Development in Asia and Pacific.” Manila. Philippines. http://www.adb.org/projects/44489-012/main.
Bazilian, M., and R. Pielke. 2013. “Making Energy Access Meaningful.” Issues in Science and Technology (Summer). Also available at http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2013.22.pdf.
CEA (Central Electricity Authority). 2012. National Electricity Plan. Vols. 1 (Generation) and 2 (Transmission). New Delhi. http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/powersystems/nep2012/ generation_12.pdf; http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/powersystems/nep2012/transmission_12.pdf.
General Electric. 2010. “Utility and Telecommunication Solutions: Electric Utility Solutions.” Available at https://www.gedigitalen-ergy.com/geospatial/elecutil_solutions.htm.
Hawkins, D. 2007. “An Integrated Planning, Design, and Analysis Environment for New Distributed Generation Connections.” Presentation at 19th International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED), Vienna, Austria.
———. 2009. “An Integrated MV Distributed Generation Connection Planning Tool.” Presentation at 19th International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED), Prague.
Howells, M., 2014. “Status Report for WEO 2015 Chapter 3.” Unpublished report prepared for World Energy Outlook 2015, forthcoming, International Energy Agency, Paris.
Min, B., K. M. Gaba, O. F. Sarr, and A. Agalassou. 2013. “Detection of Rural Electrification in Africa Using DMSP-OLD Nightlights Imagery.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 34 (22): 8118–41.
Modi, V., E. Adkins, J. Carbajal, and S. Sherpa. 2009. “National Electricity Master Plan for Liberia.” Available at http://modi.mech.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/LiberiaEnergySectorReform_Phase4Report-Final_2013-08.pdf.
Nexant. 2005. “Power System Master Plan.” Prepared for the Power Cell under ADB TA-4379 BAN. Dhaka, Bangladesh.
JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). 2011. “Power System Master Plan 2010.” Final report of project to develop 2010 master plan for Bangladesh power system. Tokyo. February.
Parshall, L., D. Pillai, S. Moha, A. Sahoy, and V. Modi. 2009. “National Electricity Planning in Settings with Low Pre-Existing Grid Coverage: Development of a Spatial Model and Case Study of Kenya.” Energy Policy 37: 2395–2410.
Perez-Arriaga, I., Y. Borofsky, D. Ellman, A. Gonzalez, and C. Vergara. 2014. “Planning Models for Rural Electrification Using the Reference Electrification Model (REM) to Expand Electricity Access.” Presentation to Tata Centre, India. August.
World Bank. 2013. Global Tracking Framework. Sustainable Energy for All Program. Washington DC. http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/energy/publication/Global-Tracking-Framework-Report
World Bank. 2014. “India: Powering a 21st Century Nation.” Review and discussion of S. Pargal and S. G. Banerjee, More Power to India: The Challenge of Electricity Distribution. Report 88906. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/06/24/india-powering-a-21st-century-nation.
The authors would like to thank Morgan Bazilian and Vivien Foster for reviewing an early draft of this note and offering several helpful suggestions.
MAKE FURTHER CONNECTIONS
live Wire 2014/1. “transmitting renewable Energy to the grid,” by Marcelino Madrigal and rhonda lenai Jordan.
live Wire 2014/9. “tracking access to Electricity,” by sudeshna ghosh Banerjee and Elisa Portale.
live Wire 2014/16. “capturing the Multi-Dimensionality of Energy access,” by Mikul Bhatia and nicolina angelou.
live Wire 2014/17. “incorporating Energy from renewable resources into Power system Planning,” by Marcelino Madrigal and rhonda lenai Jordan.
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1 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s T o w a r d P r o v i d i n g s u s T a i n a b l e e n e r g y f o r a l l i n e a s T a s i a a n d T h e Pa c i f i c
THE BOTTOM LINE
where does the region stand
on the quest for sustainable
energy for all? in 2010, eaP
had an electrification rate of
95 percent, and 52 percent
of the population had access
to nonsolid fuel for cooking.
consumption of renewable
energy decreased overall
between 1990 and 2010, though
modern forms grew rapidly.
energy intensity levels are high
but declining rapidly. overall
trends are positive, but bold
policy measures will be required
to sustain progress.
2014/28
Elisa Portale is an
energy economist in
the Energy Sector
Management Assistance
Program (ESMAP) of the
World Bank’s Energy and Extractives
Global Practice.
Joeri de Wit is an
energy economist in
the Bank’s Energy and
Extractives Global
Practice.
A K N O W L E D G E N O T E S E R I E S F O R T H E E N E R G Y & E X T R A C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E
Tracking Progress Toward Providing Sustainable Energy
for All in East Asia and the Pacific
Why is this important?
Tracking regional trends is critical to monitoring
the progress of the Sustainable Energy for All
(SE4ALL) initiative
In declaring 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for
All,” the UN General Assembly established three objectives to be
accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern energy
services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in the global
energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement in energy
efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012).
The SE4ALL objectives are global, with individual countries setting
their own national targets in a way that is consistent with the overall
spirit of the initiative. Because countries differ greatly in their ability
to pursue the three objectives, some will make more rapid progress
in one area while others will excel elsewhere, depending on their
respective starting points and comparative advantages as well as on
the resources and support that they are able to marshal.
To sustain momentum for the achievement of the SE4ALL
objectives, a means of charting global progress to 2030 is needed.
The World Bank and the International Energy Agency led a consor-
tium of 15 international agencies to establish the SE4ALL Global
Tracking Framework (GTF), which provides a system for regular
global reporting, based on rigorous—yet practical, given available
1 The universal access goal will be achieved when every person on the planet has access
to modern energy services provided through electricity, clean cooking fuels, clean heating fuels,
and energy for productive use and community services. The term “modern cooking solutions”
refers to solutions that involve electricity or gaseous fuels (including liquefied petroleum gas),
or solid/liquid fuels paired with stoves exhibiting overall emissions rates at or near those of
liquefied petroleum gas (www.sustainableenergyforall.org).
databases—technical measures. This note is based on that frame-
work (World Bank 2014). SE4ALL will publish an updated version of
the GTF in 2015.
The primary indicators and data sources that the GTF uses to
track progress toward the three SE4ALL goals are summarized below.
• Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured
by the percentage of the population with an electricity
connection and the percentage of the population with access
to nonsolid fuels.2 These data are collected using household
surveys and reported in the World Bank’s Global Electrification
Database and the World Health Organization’s Household Energy
Database.
• Renewable energy. The share of renewable energy in the
energy mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy
consumption that is derived from renewable energy resources.
Data used to calculate this indicator are obtained from energy
balances published by the International Energy Agency and the
United Nations.
• Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency
is approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
of energy intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total
primary energy consumption to gross domestic product (GDP)
measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to
calculate energy intensity are obtained from energy balances
published by the International Energy Agency and the United
Nations.
2 Solid fuels are defined to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural
and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed biomass (such as pellets and briquettes), and
other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite).
1 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d P r o v i d i n g s u s Ta i n a b l e e n e r g y f o r a l l i n e a s T e r n e u r o P e a n d c e n T r a l a s i a
THE BOTTOM LINE
where does the region stand
on the quest for sustainable
energy for all? The region
has near-universal access to
electricity, and 93 percent of
the population has access
to nonsolid fuel for cooking.
despite relatively abundant
hydropower, the share
of renewables in energy
consumption has remained
relatively low. very high energy
intensity levels have come
down rapidly. The big questions
are how renewables will evolve
when energy demand picks up
again and whether recent rates
of decline in energy intensity
will continue.
2014/29
Elisa Portale is an
energy economist in
the Energy Sector
Management Assistance
Program (ESMAP) of the
World Bank’s Energy and Extractives
Global Practice.
Joeri de Wit is an
energy economist in
the Bank’s Energy and
Extractives Global
Practice.
A K N O W L E D G E N O T E S E R I E S F O R T H E E N E R G Y & E X T R A C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E
Tracking Progress Toward Providing Sustainable Energy
for All in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Why is this important?
Tracking regional trends is critical to monitoring
the progress of the Sustainable Energy for All
(SE4ALL) initiative
In declaring 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for
All,” the UN General Assembly established three global objectives
to be accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern
energy services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in
the global energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement
in energy efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012).
The SE4ALL objectives are global, with individual countries setting
their own national targets in a way that is consistent with the overall
spirit of the initiative. Because countries differ greatly in their ability
to pursue the three objectives, some will make more rapid progress
in one area while others will excel elsewhere, depending on their
respective starting points and comparative advantages as well as on
the resources and support that they are able to marshal.
To sustain momentum for the achievement of the SE4ALL
objectives, a means of charting global progress to 2030 is needed.
The World Bank and the International Energy Agency led a consor-
tium of 15 international agencies to establish the SE4ALL Global
Tracking Framework (GTF), which provides a system for regular
global reporting, based on rigorous—yet practical, given available
1 The universal access goal will be achieved when every person on the planet has access
to modern energy services provided through electricity, clean cooking fuels, clean heating fuels,
and energy for productive use and community services. The term “modern cooking solutions”
refers to solutions that involve electricity or gaseous fuels (including liquefied petroleum gas),
or solid/liquid fuels paired with stoves exhibiting overall emissions rates at or near those of
liquefied petroleum gas (www.sustainableenergyforall.org).
databases—technical measures. This note is based on that frame-
work (World Bank 2014). SE4ALL will publish an updated version of
the GTF in 2015.
The primary indicators and data sources that the GTF uses to
track progress toward the three SE4ALL goals are summarized below.
Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured
by the percentage of the population with an electricity connection
and the percentage of the population with access to nonsolid fuels.2
These data are collected using household surveys and reported
in the World Bank’s Global Electrification Database and the World
Health Organization’s Household Energy Database.
Renewable energy. The share of renewable energy in the energy
mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy consumption
that is derived from renewable energy resources. Data used to
calculate this indicator are obtained from energy balances published
by the International Energy Agency and the United Nations.
Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency is
approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy
intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total primary energy
consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) measured in purchas-
ing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to calculate energy intensity
are obtained from energy balances published by the International
Energy Agency and the United Nations.
This note uses data from the GTF to provide a regional and
country perspective on the three pillars of SE4ALL for Eastern
2 Solid fuels are defined to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural
and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed biomass (such as pellets and briquettes), and
other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite).
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8 D o y o u h a v E s o M E t h i n g t o s ay ? s ay i t i n l i v E W i r E !
1 U n d e r s t a n d i n g C O 2 e m i s s i O n s f r O m t h e g l O b a l e n e r g y s e C t O r
Understanding CO2 Emissions from the Global Energy Sector
Why is this issue important?
Mitigating climate change requires knowledge of the
sources of CO2 emissions
Identifying opportunities to cut emissions of greenhouse gases
requires a clear understanding of the main sources of those emis-
sions. Carbon dioxide (CO2) accounts for more than 80 percent of
total greenhouse gas emissions globally,1 primarily from the burning
of fossil fuels (IFCC 2007). The energy sector—defined to include
fuels consumed for electricity and heat generation—contributed 41
percent of global CO2 emissions in 2010 (figure 1). Energy-related
CO2 emissions at the point of combustion make up the bulk of such
emissions and are generated by the burning of fossil fuels, industrial
waste, and nonrenewable municipal waste to generate electricity
and heat. Black carbon and methane venting and leakage emissions
are not included in the analysis presented in this note.
Where do emissions come from?
Emissions are concentrated in a handful of countries
and come primarily from burning coal
The geographical pattern of energy-related CO2 emissions closely
mirrors the distribution of energy consumption (figure 2). In 2010,
almost half of all such emissions were associated with the two
largest global energy consumers, and more than three-quarters
were associated with the top six emitting countries. Of the remaining
energy-related CO2 emissions, about 8 percent were contributed
by other high-income countries, another 15 percent by other
1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Data—Comparisons By Gas (database). http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3800.php
middle-income countries, and only 0.5 percent by all low-income
countries put together.
Coal is, by far, the largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions
globally, accounting for more than 70 percent of the total (figure 3).
This reflects both the widespread use of coal to generate electrical
power, as well as the exceptionally high CO2 intensity of coal-fired
power (figure 4). Per unit of energy produced, coal emits significantly
more CO2 emissions than oil and more than twice as much as natural
gas.
2014/5
THE BOTTOM LINE
the energy sector contributes
about 40 percent of global
emissions of CO2. three-
quarters of those emissions
come from six major
economies. although coal-fired
plants account for just
40 percent of world energy
production, they were
responsible for more than
70 percent of energy-sector
emissions in 2010. despite
improvements in some
countries, the global CO2
emission factor for energy
generation has hardly changed
over the last 20 years.
Vivien Foster is sector
manager for the Sus-
tainable Energy Depart-
ment at the World Bank
Daron Bedrosyan
works for London
Economics in Toronto.
Previously, he was an
energy analyst with the
World Bank’s Energy Practice.
A K N O W L E D G E N O T E S E R I E S F O R T H E E N E R G Y P R A C T I C E
Figure 1. CO2 emissions
by sector
Figure 2. energy-related CO2
emissions by country
Energy41%
Roadtransport
16%
Othertransport
6%
Industry20%
Residential6%
Othersectors
10%China30%
USA19%
EU11%
India7%
Russia7%
Japan 4%
Other HICs8%
Other MICs15%
LICs0.5%
Notes: Energy-related CO2 emissions are CO2 emissions from the energy sector at the point
of combustion. Other Transport includes international marine and aviation bunkers, domestic
aviation and navigation, rail and pipeline transport; Other Sectors include commercial/public
services, agriculture/forestry, fishing, energy industries other than electricity and heat genera-
tion, and other emissions not specified elsewhere; Energy = fuels consumed for electricity and
heat generation, as defined in the opening paragraph. HIC, MIC, and LIC refer to high-, middle-,
and low-income countries.
Source: IEA 2012a.
1 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d P r o v i d i n g s u s Ta i n a b l e e n e r g y f o r a l l i n e a s T e r n e u r o P e a n d c e n T r a l a s i a
THE BOTTOM LINE
where does the region stand
on the quest for sustainable
energy for all? The region
has near-universal access to
electricity, and 93 percent of
the population has access
to nonsolid fuel for cooking.
despite relatively abundant
hydropower, the share
of renewables in energy
consumption has remained
relatively low. very high energy
intensity levels have come
down rapidly. The big questions
are how renewables will evolve
when energy demand picks up
again and whether recent rates
of decline in energy intensity
will continue.
2014/29
Elisa Portale is an
energy economist in
the Energy Sector
Management Assistance
Program (ESMAP) of the
World Bank’s Energy and Extractives
Global Practice.
Joeri de Wit is an
energy economist in
the Bank’s Energy and
Extractives Global
Practice.
A K N O W L E D G E N O T E S E R I E S F O R T H E E N E R G Y & E X T R A C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E
Tracking Progress Toward Providing Sustainable Energy
for All in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Why is this important?
Tracking regional trends is critical to monitoring
the progress of the Sustainable Energy for All
(SE4ALL) initiative
In declaring 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for
All,” the UN General Assembly established three global objectives
to be accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern
energy services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in
the global energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement
in energy efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012).
The SE4ALL objectives are global, with individual countries setting
their own national targets in a way that is consistent with the overall
spirit of the initiative. Because countries differ greatly in their ability
to pursue the three objectives, some will make more rapid progress
in one area while others will excel elsewhere, depending on their
respective starting points and comparative advantages as well as on
the resources and support that they are able to marshal.
To sustain momentum for the achievement of the SE4ALL
objectives, a means of charting global progress to 2030 is needed.
The World Bank and the International Energy Agency led a consor-
tium of 15 international agencies to establish the SE4ALL Global
Tracking Framework (GTF), which provides a system for regular
global reporting, based on rigorous—yet practical, given available
1 The universal access goal will be achieved when every person on the planet has access
to modern energy services provided through electricity, clean cooking fuels, clean heating fuels,
and energy for productive use and community services. The term “modern cooking solutions”
refers to solutions that involve electricity or gaseous fuels (including liquefied petroleum gas),
or solid/liquid fuels paired with stoves exhibiting overall emissions rates at or near those of
liquefied petroleum gas (www.sustainableenergyforall.org).
databases—technical measures. This note is based on that frame-
work (World Bank 2014). SE4ALL will publish an updated version of
the GTF in 2015.
The primary indicators and data sources that the GTF uses to
track progress toward the three SE4ALL goals are summarized below.
Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured
by the percentage of the population with an electricity connection
and the percentage of the population with access to nonsolid fuels.2
These data are collected using household surveys and reported
in the World Bank’s Global Electrification Database and the World
Health Organization’s Household Energy Database.
Renewable energy. The share of renewable energy in the energy
mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy consumption
that is derived from renewable energy resources. Data used to
calculate this indicator are obtained from energy balances published
by the International Energy Agency and the United Nations.
Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency is
approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy
intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total primary energy
consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) measured in purchas-
ing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to calculate energy intensity
are obtained from energy balances published by the International
Energy Agency and the United Nations.
This note uses data from the GTF to provide a regional and
country perspective on the three pillars of SE4ALL for Eastern
2 Solid fuels are defined to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural
and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed biomass (such as pellets and briquettes), and
other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite).
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