Planning for a Future Climate on the Salt and Verde River20Presentation.pdf · Saguaro Lake 69,765...
Transcript of Planning for a Future Climate on the Salt and Verde River20Presentation.pdf · Saguaro Lake 69,765...
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James WalterSRP Surface Water Resources
WESTCAS Annual ConferenceJune 20th, 2018
Planning for a Future Climate on theSalt and Verde River
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• SRP and the Reservoir System
• Hydro-climatology of the Watershed
• Recent Climate Change Projections
• Uncertainties
Outline
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Salt River Project
• Established 1903
• A Federal reclamation project
• A private corporation
• Delivers almost 1 million acre-feet per year
• Established 1937 as a political subdivision of the state of Arizona
• 1,000,000 customers in and around the Phoenix metro area
Salt River Valley Water
Users Association
SRP Agricultural Improvement and
Power District
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Flagstaff
PrescottPayson
13,000 Sq. MileProject
Watershed
Tucson
RiverPhoenix
Peoria
Tempe
Mesa
Gilbert
Chandler
Scottsdale
Glendale
Phoenix
Tolleson
Avondale
SRP’s Water Service Area
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Salt and Verde Watersheds
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VERDE CONSERVATIONSTORAGE:302,403 AF
SALT CONSERVATION STORAGE:2,004,287 AF
2026’
1798’
1529’
1914’
HorseshoeDam
StewartMountain
Dam
RooseveltDam
BartlettDam
Mormon FlatDam
Horse Mesa Dam
Total Conservation Storage: 2,306,690 AF
Horseshoe109,217 AF
Bartlett178,186 AF
Saguaro Lake69,765 AF
Canyon Lake57,852 AF
Apache Lake245,138 AF
Roosevelt Lake
1,631,532 AF
1660.5’
2218’ Top of Safety of Dams
2151’ Top of Conservation
C.C. CraginDam
6720’
C.C. Cragin15,000 AF
East Clear Creek Storage:15,000 AF
Verde River Storage:
287,403 AF
2100’ -
6720’ -
- 2000’
1506’ -
1610.5’ -
- 1748’
1891’ -
SRP’s Reservoirs
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SRP’s Delivery System
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Salt and Verde Normals (1981-2010)
Rain/SnowMonsoon
Rain
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Climate Variability
Salt-Tonto-Verde SWE above 7,000’
16
12
8
4
0
Inch
es
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Climate Variability
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Climate Variability
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Luong et al. 2017
Climate Change - Summer
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Climate Change - Summer
Pascale et al. 2017
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Seager and Vecchi 2010
Climate Change - Winter
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Climate Change - Winter
Woodhouse et al. 2016
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Climate Change – Winter (AR’s)
Lu et al 2018
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Climate Change – Winter (AR’s)
Singh et al. (in review)
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Vano et al. 2014
Climate Change – Uncertainties
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Climate Change – Uncertainties
Mearns et al. 2009
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Climate Change – Uncertainties
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Climate Change – Uncertainties
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Verde River Mean Accumulating Daily Inflow
Climate Change – Uncertainties
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Climate Change – Uncertainties
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Questions
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System Health
Streamflow Projection
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RPM
• Inflow• Local (ungauged inflow)
• Reservoir Operations
• Deliveries
• Groundwater
• Reservoir/River Losses
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Running the RPM
• Monthly time-step
• Can run through GUI
• Batch run• SRP Python script used to
batch inflows into dss
• Hydrologics executable for batch run
• 64 runs takes less than 10 minutes
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RPM Output
• Detailed output for storage, demands, deliveries, exchanges, losses, spills, etc.
• Variety of standard reports and graphs
• Ad hoc reports and graphs
• Calculates various statistics about output data
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Examples of RPM Output
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Purpose of the RPM• Current and future shortages
• Average surface water supply
• Future groundwater supply
• Effect of physical changes to reservoirs (i.e. increased conservation storage)
• Effects of operational changes to reservoirs
• Changes in demands
• Changes in exchanges and transfers
• Sedimentation effects
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Benefits from high resolution dynamically downscaling