Planning and Disaster Risk Reduction in Latin America and DRR in Latin America by Omar...SEGEPLAN +...
Transcript of Planning and Disaster Risk Reduction in Latin America and DRR in Latin America by Omar...SEGEPLAN +...
Planning and Disaster Risk Reduction in Latin America
Omar D. Bello, Ph.D.
Economic Affairs Officer
Disaster Risk Reduction and Response Unit
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Disaster assessment methodology
BangkokFebruary 18, 2015
1. Data on disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)
2. Background of planning and disaster risk reduction in LAC
3. The case of Costa Rica
4. The case of Guatemala
5. The case of Peru
6. Stilysed facts of Damage and Losses Assessments and the
relationship to ex-ante planning
Number of Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
Central America: Deaths due to Weather Related Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
The Caribbean: Deaths due to Weather Related Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
South America: Deaths due to Weather Related Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Central America: Deaths related to a geophysical Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
The Caribbean: Deaths related to a geophysical Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
South America: Deaths related to a geophysical Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Central America: Affected population due to a Weather Related Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
The Caribbean: Affected population due to a Weather Related Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
Caribe: Número total de afectados por desastres climáticos
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
South America: Affected population due to a Weather Related Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
Central America: Affected population due to a Geophysical Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
The Caribbean: Affected population due to Geophysical Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
South America: Affected population due to Geophysical Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
Central America: Damage/GDP for Weather Related Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
The Caribbean: Damage/GDP for Weather Related Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
South America: Damage/GDP for Weather Related Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
Central America: Damage/GDP due to Geophysical Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
The Caribbean: Damage/GDP due to Geophysical Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
South America: Damage/GDP due to Geophysical Disasters
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
World
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
Latin America and the Caribbean
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
Deaths per Thousand Inhabitants
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
Affected Population per Thousand of Inhabitants
Source: EM-DAT, OFDS/CRED. Catholic University of Lovaine
Latin America and the Caribbean
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
1 2 3 4 5
a) a un shock en tormentas
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
1 2 3 4 5
b) a un shock en otros desastres climáticos
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
1 2 3 4 5
c) a un shock en desastre geológico
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
1 2 3 4 5
d) a un shock en el PIB de los países de ingresos altos
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1 2 3 4 5
e) a un shock en los términos de intercambio
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
1 2 3 4 5
f) a un shock en la tasa de interés internacional
The Caribbean
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1 2 3 4 5
a) a un shock en tormentas
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
1 2 3 4 5
b) a un shock en otros desastres climáticos
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
1 2 3 4 5
c) a un shock en desastre geológico
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
1 2 3 4 5
d) a un shock en el PIB de los países de ingresos altos
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
1 2 3 4 5
e) a un shock en los términos de intercambio
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1 2 3 4 5
f) a un shock en la tasa de interés internacional
Central America
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1 2 3 4 5
a) a un shock en tormentas
-0.80%
-0.30%
0.20%
0.70%
1 2 3 4 5
b) a un shock en otros desastres climáticos
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
1 2 3 4 5
d) a un shock en el PIB de los países de ingresos altos
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1 2 3 4 5
c) a un shock en desastre geológico
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1 2 3 4 5
e) a un shock en los términos de intercambio
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1 2 3 4 5
f) a un shock en la tasa de interés internacional
The need to improve urban and rural infrastructure, and the
development of sectoral plans and infrastructure, especially transport
and energy, in the 1950s and early 1960s marked the beginning of the
planning process in Latin America, which was formalized creating
planning economic entities in order to strengthen the operational
capacity of the public administration.
Creation of public enterprises. The size of the central government
increased.
Goal: economic growth (at that time it was equivalent to economic
development)
Economic growth does not necessarily reduce volatility to natural
hazards
Economic growth normally creates new forms of vulnerability or
exacerbate existing ones
There was no attention to disaster risk reduction topic.
The decline of this model is associated with the external debt crisis
(1982)
Policies on disaster have being reactive
Milestones related to the issue of disasters and public policy:
Mexico City earthquake, Mexico (1985)
Armero, Colombia (1986)
Mitch (1998), several Central America countries
After those disasters started in those countries a process to generate
institution that deal with disasters
At the beginning it was focus on disaster management: response toemergencies, and early warnings
LAC: Deadliest Disasters
1970-89
Year Country Type Deaths Aff.
Population
1970 PER Earthquake 66,794 3,216,240
1972 NIC Earthquake 10,000 720,000
1973 HND Mudslide 2,800
1974 HND Storm 8,000 600,000
1974 BRA Epidemic 1,500 30,000
1976 GTM Earthquake 23,000 4,993,000
1979 DOM Storm 1,400 1,554,000
1985 COL Volcanic eruption 21,800 12,700
1985 MEX Earthquake 9,500 2,130,204
1987 ECU Earthquake 5,000 150,000
LAC: Deadliest Disasters
1990-2010
Year Country Type Deaths Aff.
Population
1991 PER Epidemic 8,000
1991 PER Epidemic 1,726 283,353
1998 HND Storm 14,600 2,112,000
1998 NIC Storm 3,332 868,228
1999 VEN Floods 30,000 483,635
2004 HTI Storm 2,754 315,594
2004 HTI Floods 2,665 31,283
2005 GTM Storm 1,513 475,314
2010 HTI Earthquake 222,570 3,700,000
2010 HTI Epidemic 5,592 378,638
1. Knowledge of disaster risk
2. Risk Reduction
Prevention
Mitigation
3. Disaster Management
Preparedness
Response
4. Rehabilitation
Disaster assessment
Rebuilding
Financial Protection
The prospective risk management comprises the set of actions to prevent
the formation of new conditions of risk, which may arise with the
development of new investments and projects in the territory to
disregard location criteria, construction and safe operation. The
implementation of this approach has being relatively new in Latin
America
Integrating disaster risk reduction measures/ policies within national
public policies could help to achieve sustainable development. This could
be more important on a climate change context.
The expected impacts of those policies would be
• Preserving achieved poverty reduction
• Strenghting hazard resilience.
Costa Rica
Established in 1969
Ascribed to the Presidency of the Republic
2006: National Emergencies and Risk Prevention Act (N° 8488)
• Introduces the concept of “risk prevention”
• Regulates the State’s extraordinary activities in an emergency
• Empowers the CNE to coordinate the National Risk
Management System
Promote integrated, organized and harmonic coordination
between structures, methods, procedures and resources of all
state institutions, including participation from the private sector
and civil society.
Promote and implement public policy guidelines, which
incorporate the concept of risk management as a cross- cutting
element in planning and development.
National risk management policy
Commitment incorporated in the National Development Plan
(PND) 2006-2010
Strategic pillar: Social development and fight against poverty
Instrument of strategic planning
International commitments (Hyogo Framework for Action)
1. Poverty alleviation and increased resilience
2. Regulatory mechanisms and instruments for risk
management
3. Investment in and development of public infrastructure
4. Participation for local risk management
5. Development and dissemination of knowledge and use of
pertinent technologies
6. Preparedness and response to emergencies and disasters
7. Recovery and reconstruction
Established in 2008 (Executive Decree 34694 MIDEPLAN-
Hacienda).
Incorporation of disaster risk reduction (DRR) in the formulation
and evaluation of investment projects.
Reduce the impact of disasters on the fiscal deficit
• GDP: average loss of 0.83% between 2005 and 2009
• Supported by CEPREDENAC
• Bank of Public Investment Projects (BPIP)
Prospective study: threat, exposure and vulnerability
Objective: incorporate disaster risk reduction analyses and
alternatives in the pre- investment stages (profile, pre-
feasibility, feasibility and design) as part of the cost and
benefit estimations
Threats• Site
Exposure
• Identify vulnerability
Fragility
• Quantify damages and losses
Mitigation &
Prevention
• Risk reduction measures
• Mitigation and prevention costs and benefits
Database of public investment projects
Support planning, programming, budgeting, monitoring,
control and evaluation of public investments
Basic information:
• Linkages with the National Development Plan
• Objectives, description
• Expected outcomes
• Financing
• Risk analysis
• Environmental analysis
• Financial and/ or socioeconomic indicators
Register in the BPIP
Negotiation process
Final approval
Central Bank
Ministry of Finance
Guatemala
1987- 2005: the National Pre- investment Financing System
(SINAFIP) managed financing lines (IDB)
1990s: set the foundations for the National Public
Investment System:
• Creation of a fund to finance studies and designs
• Importance of elaborating public investments programs
• Project database
Presidential Secretariat for Planning and Programming
(SEGEPLAN): coordinates and prioritizes public investment
SEGEPLAN + Ministry of Finance: determine the national
policy to formulate, prioritize, evaluate and select
investment projects, and sources of financing
Guidelines
Public Investment Directorate•Updates and issues annual guidelines
•Establishes annual priorities
•Establishes information requirements and procedures
Incorporation of a technical evaluation of the projects (2001)
Incorporation of natural, economic and social risk analyses
(threats and vulnerabilities) as an additional criterion (2010)
Next steps
Draft bill to strengthen and institutionalize the National Public
Investment System•Organize and unify guidelines
•Prioritize economically and socially feasible projects
•Support descentralization
•Increase public participation
CEPREDENAC
Pertaining to the Central American Integration System
Mandate: promote activities, projects and programs
intended to reduce disaster risks that could cause human
and economic losses due to socio- natural factors
Promotes and coordinates international cooperation and
exchanges of information and expertise
Provides technical and scientific assistance
Regional Instruments
1999: Strategic Framework for the Reduction of Vulnerabilities
and Disasters in Central America
Immediate antecedent: Hurricane Mitch
Regional Plan for the Reduction of Disasters 2006-2015
2011: Comprehensive Risk Management Regional Policy for
Central America
Perú
1990s
• Weakening of the housing institutionalism
• Disorganized urban sprawl
• Rural- urban migration
• Weak urban planning
2000s
• National Plan for Urban Development
• National Housing Plan
• National Sanitation Plan
• Ecological- Economic Zoning Models
• Construction Code
• Other relevant regulations
Strengthening of the national planning system
Database of public investment projects
Support planning, programming, budgeting, monitoring,
control and evaluation of public investments
Basic information:
• Linkages with the National Development Plan
• Objectives, description
• Expected outcomes
• Financing
• Risk analysis
• Environmental analysis
• Financial and/ or socioeconomic indicators
Established in 2000
Coordinated by the Ministry of Finance
It was modified in 2002
• Incorporation of “risk” in development planning
• Promotion of sustainability
• Creation of the Multisectoral Commission for the Prevention and
Attention of Disasters
Follow and comply the established guidelines
Incorporate specific structural and non- structural measures
to prevent and mitigate disaster risks
To be declared viable, projects must be:
• Socially viable
• Sustainable
• Compatible with policy guidelines (national, sectoral and
local)
• Exposure analysisSite analysis
• Analysis of factors that could create fragility
Analysis of construction and operation technologies
• Analysis of the response capacity
• Analysis of the response capacity and service recovery
Organization and management
Technical
analysis
Resilience
Identification Phase
Analysis of hazardous
scenarios
1. Knowledge of disaster risk
2. Risk Reduction
Prevention
Mitigation
3. Disaster Management
Preparedness
Response
4. Rehabilitation
Disaster assessment
Rebuilding
Financial Protection
Indicators by the Inter American Development Bank
4 indexes of dissater risk management were developed by the Institute
of Environmental Studies of the National University of Colombia,
Manizales. The Project was funded by the IADB.
These indexes are:
a) Disaster Deficit Index
b) Local Disaster Index
c) Prevalent Vulnerability Index
d) Risk Management index
This system of indicators has a set of desirable features such as
a) they summarizes the presentation of information on risk
b) measure key elements of vulnerability
c) easy to understand by policymakers, and
d) allow cluster and comparison among countries.
They cover different aspects of the risk problematic and takes into
account aspects such as: potential damage and loss due to the probability
of extreme events, recurrent disasters or losses, socio-environmental
conditions that facilitate disasters, capacity for macroeconomic recovery,
behaviour of key services, institutional capacity and the effectiveness of
basic risk management instruments such as risk dentification, prevention
and mitigation measures, financial mechanisms and risk
transfer,emergency response levels and preparedness and recovery
capacity
DALA methodology will be used as one of the indicators of goal 1 of theSDG
Past DALAs could be used to determine stilysed facts about the damageand losses estimate profile by sector. It would be an important input forany planning process.
The Caribbean: Different disasters(%)
Social Infrastructure Productive
Hurricanes &
Storms
28.2 8.3 61.8
Extreme
precipitations
1.6 66.7 31.6
Geophysical 79.6 6.6 11.3
The Caribbean: Different disasters(%)
Social Infrastructure Productive
Hurricanes &
Storms
6.1 15.4 74.3
Extreme
precipitations
43.7 38.2 18.1
Geophysical 47 22.1 30.9
52%
28%
20%
Productivo Infraestructura Social
57%24%
10%9%
Vivienda Edificios públicos Salud Educación
85%
8%7%
Transporte Energía Agua y Saneamiento
80%
10%
10%
Agropecuario y Forestal Industria Comercio y Servicios
71%
16%
13%
Productivo Infraestructura Social
60%
32%
8%
Vivienda Salud Educación
64%
21%
15%
Transporte Energía Agua y Saneamiento
70%
21%
9%
Agropecuario y Forestal Industria Comercio y Servicios
Planning and Disaster Risk Reduction in Latin America
Omar D. Bello, Ph.D.
Economic Affairs Officer
Disaster Risk Reduction and Response Unit
ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean
Disaster assessment methodology
BangkokFebruary 18, 2015