Planning adaptively for sea level rise, supported by quick-scan … · 2019. 12. 2. · Slide 3 •...
Transcript of Planning adaptively for sea level rise, supported by quick-scan … · 2019. 12. 2. · Slide 3 •...
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Planning adaptively for sea level rise,
supported by quick-scan tools
Webinar November 19th, 2019
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Slide 2
• > 200 registrations
• 17 countries
• 173 US, 13 states
• 147 Florida
• Governments, NGO’s, consultants, universities, small businesses
Introduction│This webinar
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Slide 3
• Dr. Jayantha Obeysekera, Research Professor and Director of the Sea Level Solutions Center, Florida International University
• Akintunde Owosina, P.E., Chief Hydrology and Hydraulics Bureau. South Florida Water Management District
• Dr. Marjolijn Haasnoot, Adaptive planning and water management
specialist, developer of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Deltares
• Dr. Kathryn Roscoe, flood risk and adaptation specialist and regional coordinator USA & Canada, Deltares
• Dr. Claire Jeuken, nature-based solutions and flood risk adaptation expert, Deltares USA
Introduction│ Speakers
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Slide 4
#daretoask
1. Introduction to adaptive planning
2. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)
3. Tools supporting the DAPP approach
4. Discussion
Introduction│ Webinar outline
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Slide 5
1. Introduction to adaptive planning
2. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)
3. Tools supporting the DAPP approach
4. Discussion
Webinar outline│ next presenter
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Slide 6
Project: Development of Short- and Long-Term Strategies for Resiliency with respect to Coastal Flooding in Miami-Dade County
• Funded by Florida Department of Environmental Protection
(Florida Coastal Management Program)
• Collaborators:
• South Florida Water Management District
• Deltares USA
• FIU Sea Level Solutions Center
• Miami Dade County (Office of Resilience and Emergency Management)
• City of Miami
Introduction to adaptive planning| Background
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Slide 7
Five Principles of Resiliency in coping with extremes:
1. Adopt a system’s approach;
2. Look at beyond-design events;
3. Build and prepare infrastructure according to ‘remain functioning’
4. Increase recovery capacity by looking at social and financial capital; and
5. Remain resilient into the future
De Bruijn et al. (2017)
Introduction│ We need a new paradigm for Resiliency Planning
Implications:
• Plan for future and not the present –projections can be deeply uncertain
• Price tag can be very high, and financing can be challenging
• Smart phasing of adaptation strategies is desirable
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Slide 8
SE Florida Climate
Compact (2015)
Larger bandwidthUncertainty increased→ Deep uncertainty
Introduction| Sea level rise projections for 2100
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Slide 9
Introduction│Uncertainties in “Shocks” and “Stresses”
RainfallExtremes:IDF Curves
FutureStorminess?
Ocean Dynamics, Gravitational Effects
SLR: Which Scenario?
Socio-economic trends?TheBalance.com
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Slide 10
Selected Methods of DMDU:
• Robust Decision Making (RBM) pioneered by RAND
• Decision Scaling or Stress Test (“bottom-up approach”)
• Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) developed by Deltares and TU Delft, The Netherlands
Introduction│Approaches to Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2
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Slide 11
Haasnoot et al. (2013) Glob. Env. Change. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006
Decisions are made over time in dynamic interaction with the system and cannot be considered independently
• DAPP explicitly includes decision making over time and sequences of decisions (pathways) under uncertainty.
• Supports planners to design a dynamic adaptive plans: short-term actions, long-term options, adaptation signals.
“Different roads leading to Rome”
Dynamic Adaptive Policy pathways (DAPP)| Introduction
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Slide 12
1. Introduction to adaptive planning
2. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)
3. Tools supporting the DAPP approach
4. Discussion
Webinar outline│ next presenter
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Slide 13
Adaptive pathways planning using DAPP
A systematic framework that helps focus on important planning and decision questionsunder deep uncertainty:
• What low-regret actions can we take now that contribute to future goals? • What actions can we postpone? How to prioritize?• What robust and flexible strategies perform well over a wide range of futures?
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Slide 14
Systematic framework of DAPP
Key features:
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Slide 15
Adaptation Tipping Points (ATP)
SLR scenario A
SLR scenario B
2040
2060
2040
2060
Threshold to meet risk objective
ATP
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Slide 16
The maps (left) show different possible sequences of decisions to achieve objectives. A scorecard (right) helps to evaluate the pathways and decisions.
Adaptation pathways maps
Sea level rise
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Slide 17
Adaptation pathways maps
Haasnoot et al. 2013; Haasnoot et al. 2018 Glob. Env. Change, Haasnoot et al. 2019 http://pathways.deltares.nl
Current situation
Action A
Action B
Action C
Action D
Transfer station to new policy action
Adaptation Tipping Point of a policy action (Terminal)
Policy action effective
Changing conditions
Time high-end scenario
Time low-end scenario0
0 10 70 80 90 100Years
10 70 80 90 100
Decision node
Adaptation signals based on signposts and trigger values
Sea level rise
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Slide 18
A phased approach to pathways
Awareness raising:• Serious gaming.• Introduction to adaptive planning method.
http://deltagame.deltares.nl
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Slide 19
A phased approach to pathways
Level III – Full assessment of pathways
Requirements for the model and further analysis
Narratives Level II – Quantitative design of pathways
Level I – Initial qualitative pathways - narratives
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Slide 21
Where have pathways studies been applied?
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Slide 22
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Slide 23
Where have pathways studies been applied?
Adaptive pathways studies in practice
Adaptive pathways in guidance
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Slide 24
Application to Miami C7 basin (2017)
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Slide 25
Level I - Workshop to explore pathways
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Slide 26
Level I - Initial analysis
To be modeled
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Slide 27
Measures
• M0 – No action
• M1 – Local flood mitigation: flood walls, exfiltration trenches, flap gates, and local pumps
• M2 – Regional flood mitigation: forward pumps at S-27 coastal structure (small & large pumps)
• M3 - Land-use mitigation: raise roads and buildings to 6, 7 or 8 feet elevation
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Slide 28
Level II – quantitative analyses
Hydrologic Drivers:
• Rainfall (4x);
• Storm Surge (1/10)
• Sea Level Rise (3x)
Adaptation Options
Hydrodynamic Model
XPSWMM
Delft-FIAT
Dynamic Adaptive
Policy
Pathways (DAPP)
(M $)
Exp
ecte
d a
nn
ual
dam
age
(M$
)
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Slide 29
Adaptation tipping points
2065 (2.21 ft)
SLR1
SLR32045
2025 2050
2065 (0.76 ft)
Objective: Expected annual damage (EAD) should not
exceed current levels
Threshold = current EAD
(M $)
EAD
(M
$)
Current EAD
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Slide 30
Adaptive pathways
Structuralmeasures
Land usemeasures
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Slide 31
Adaptive pathways
Structuralmeasures
Land usemeasures
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Slide 32
Adaptive pathways
Structuralmeasures
Land usemeasures
• Land use measures are needed in the end • Installing pumps can buy some time.
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Slide 33
• Decision making under uncertainty
• Adds adaptiveness (flexibility, robustness) and time
• Pathways open decision space, identify path-dependencies and overcome policy paralysis
• Tipping points identify when to act
• Monitoring keeps us on track
• Assessment modes: model-based, expert, participatory pathways
DAPP │a summary
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Slide 34
• Generic adaptation pathways to sea level rise: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab1871
• Economic evaluation for pathways that considers transfer cost: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02409-6
• Detecting timely, reliable and convincing signals of change: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.003
• Compound flooding in Louisiana
• Adaptation to uncertain high-end sea level rise
Recent and ongoing developments
Hawkins and Sutton, 2012
Haasnoot et al. 2019
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Slide 35
DAPP│Questions?
#daretoask
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Slide 36
1. Introduction to adaptive planning
2. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)
3. Tools supporting the DAPP approach
4. Discussion
Webinar outline│ next presenter
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Slide 37
Tools supporting DAPP
4
SFINCS
Criticality tool
Delft-FIAT
CIRCLE
Adaptation Support Tool
Delft-FIAT Accelerator
Pathway generator
Serious Gaming
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Slide 39
Hazard Model
Damage and riskmodel
Modeling for the DAPP process
Drivers Adaptation Options
Dynamic Adaptive
Policy Pathways
(DAPP)
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Slide 41
• Quick overview
• risk --> most at-risk areas
• system response to climate change
• risk reduction and shelf-lives of measures
• influence of risk tolerance on the shelf-life of measures
• Engaging stakeholders in workshops
• Educational tool to understand DAPP process
Why a DAPP quick-scan tool
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Slide 42
Quick scan tool for Miami
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Slide 43
Ingredients:
• Simple hydraulic model
• Fast and automated damage model
Steps:
• Calibrate the combined hydraulic-damage model
• Implement hydraulic and land-use measures in the model
Recipe for a quick-scan model
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Slide 44
Quick scan tool - overview
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Slide 45
Quick-scan tool model structure
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Slide 46
Under the hood: hydraulic module
Cal
ibra
tio
n
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Slide 47
Under the hood: damage module
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Slide 48
Sea level rise
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Slide 49
Measures (same as C-7 study)
M0 – No action
M1 – Local flood mitigation: flood walls, exfiltration trenches, flap gates, and local pumps
M2 – Regional flood mitigation: forward pumps at S-27 coastal structure (small & large pumps)
M3 - Land-use mitigation: raise roads and buildings to 6 feet elevation
Hydraulic measures
Land-use measure
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Slide 50
Hydraulic measures (M1 & M2)
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Slide 51
Raising roads and houses (M3)
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Slide 55
Speeding it up: pre-processing
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Slide 56
Run time
Single run
Risk analysis
2 seconds
30 seconds
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Slide 57
Taking it for a test drive
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Slide 58
Flood depth and damages
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Slide 59
• Three sea levels
• CSL = 0 SLR
• SLR1 = 0.76 ft. SLR
• SLR3 = 2.21 ft. SLR
• Five measures/combinations
• M0 (no measures)
• M1 (local flood mitigation measures)
• M2 (regional pump)
• M1 + M2 (combination local measures + regional pump)
• M3 (elevating structures and roads)
Risk
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Slide 60
Risk analysis, C-7
Risk reduced to zero
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Slide 61
Tipping points
previous C-7 study quick-scan model
Current
Risk
5%
increase
10%
increase
Current
risk
5%
increase
10%
increase
M0 0.00 0.09 0.19 0.00 0.10 0.19
M1 0.55 0.66 0.77 0.46 0.62 0.77
M2B 0.50 0.79 0.95 0.52 0.80 0.96
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Slide 62
Pathways map
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Slide 63
Pathways map
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Slide 64
Pathways map
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Slide 65
Expanding the model
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Slide 66
Multi-basin results
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Slide 67
• Can play with the effectiveness of measures
• Include new measures with expert opinion about relative effectiveness
• Choose different sea level rises
• Change precipitation frequency
• Take future development into account
Engaging stakeholders
Accountable Now
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Slide 68
Discussion
#daretoask
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Slide 69
www.deltares.nl
www.slsc.fiu.edu
Thank you for your attention
More information:• https://www.deltares.nl/en/adaptive-pathways/
• https://publicwiki.deltares.nl/display/DFIAT/Delft-FIAT+Home
• https://www.deltares.nl/en/software-solutions/
• Recordings of the webinar.
We hope to see you at the Climate summit!