PlanningPlanning• A population profile allows a country A population profile allows a country

to plan for the future:to plan for the future:• Children need- schools, medical Children need- schools, medical

care, daycare (dependents)care, daycare (dependents)• Young people need – colleges & Young people need – colleges &

universities, jobs universities, jobs • Older people need – healthcare, Older people need – healthcare,

retirement centers (dependents)retirement centers (dependents)• Dependency RatioDependency Ratio• = = (<15 years)+(>65 years) (<15 years)+(>65 years) x 100 x 100• 16-64 year olds16-64 year olds

Doubling TimeDoubling Time

• Doubling TimeDoubling Time = Number of years = Number of years that it takes for a population to that it takes for a population to double in size.double in size.

• Divide 70 by the % Natural Increase. Divide 70 by the % Natural Increase. For example: The % Natural Increase For example: The % Natural Increase for the world is 1.2% for the world is 1.2%

• = 70/1.2 = 58 years= 70/1.2 = 58 years

Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition

Return

Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition

• Phase I:Phase I: BR and DR both high (35-50). BR and DR both high (35-50).

• BR = DRBR = DR

• Very slow population growth due to a Very slow population growth due to a balance between birth rates (BR) and balance between birth rates (BR) and death rates (DR).death rates (DR).

• Little or no disease control occurs.Little or no disease control occurs.

• Populations experienced periodic food Populations experienced periodic food shortages.shortages.

• Phase II:Phase II: BR high and DR declines. BR high and DR declines.

• Rapid population growthRapid population growth

• As a result of improved food As a result of improved food production and public healthproduction and public health

• BR > DRBR > DR

• Phase III:Phase III: BR starts to decline. The gap BR starts to decline. The gap between BR and DR narrows.between BR and DR narrows.

• Fewer children needed – declining Fewer children needed – declining mortality.mortality.

• Increased urbanization.Increased urbanization.

• Increased female literacy and Increased female literacy and employment.employment.

• Contraceptives become more available. Contraceptives become more available.

• Why did Americans in the 1800’s Why did Americans in the 1800’s tend to have large families?tend to have large families?

• Most Americans lead a rural lifeMost Americans lead a rural life

• Economic reasonsEconomic reasons

• Mortality rates were higher than Mortality rates were higher than todaytoday

• Bites and BulgesBites and Bulges

• Prediction of present and future needs.Prediction of present and future needs.

• Zero Population Growth (ZPG) – Why is this Zero Population Growth (ZPG) – Why is this not achieved once a population reaches not achieved once a population reaches replacement level?replacement level?

• Population Momentum Population Momentum

Read the text and find out how Bites and Bulges affect a population profile. What is population momentum and how does it explain why a population continues to grow when it reaches ZPG.

• Why do people in some of the world’s Why do people in some of the world’s poorest countries have such high poorest countries have such high fertility rates?fertility rates?

• TraditionTradition

• ReligionReligion

• Early marriage ageEarly marriage age

• Availability of contraceptivesAvailability of contraceptives

• Female illiteracy rateFemale illiteracy rate

• High infant mortality ratesHigh infant mortality rates

• Children as economic assetChildren as economic asset

• Page 146-147 in textPage 146-147 in text

Use the text to examine these factors

• Why do people in developed Why do people in developed (industrial countries) have low (industrial countries) have low TFR?TFR?

• They lead a mainly urban lifestyleThey lead a mainly urban lifestyle• EconomicsEconomics1.1. They have high expectations and They have high expectations and

raising children is expensive.raising children is expensive.2.2. Education costsEducation costs3.3. They do not need children for old They do not need children for old

age security (Social age security (Social security/retirement funds)security/retirement funds)

• Phase IV:Phase IV: Decline in BR catches up with low Decline in BR catches up with low DR. DR.

• BR = DRBR = DR

• Economic development in developed world.Economic development in developed world.

• Are developing countries locked in to Are developing countries locked in to Phases II and III ?Phases II and III ?

• Many experts believe that without Many experts believe that without economic progress a nation cannot enter economic progress a nation cannot enter the final stage(s) of demographic transition.the final stage(s) of demographic transition.

• There are many exceptions to the this. There are many exceptions to the this. Many countries of Eastern Asia (China, Many countries of Eastern Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) have entered Stage Japan, Korea, Taiwan) have entered Stage IV of demographic transition while before IV of demographic transition while before reaching economic stability. reaching economic stability.

• Why do people in some of the world’s Why do people in some of the world’s poorest countries have such high fertility poorest countries have such high fertility rates?rates?

• TraditionTradition (in rural Tibet it is traditional for a (in rural Tibet it is traditional for a girl to marry once she reaches puberty) girl to marry once she reaches puberty)

• ReligionReligion (some religions ban the use of (some religions ban the use of contraceptives among their members)contraceptives among their members)

• Early marriage ageEarly marriage age

• Availability of contraceptivesAvailability of contraceptives

• Female illiteracy rateFemale illiteracy rate

• High infant mortality ratesHigh infant mortality rates

• Children as economic assetChildren as economic asset

• Page 174-176 in textPage 174-176 in text

There are links to some of the topics on this page. Click the links to find more information on the web. Make sure your browser is open.

IndiaIndia• Was the first nation wide family planning 1951Was the first nation wide family planning 1951• 1975 forced sterilization lead to downfall of 1975 forced sterilization lead to downfall of

government.government.• Centralized family planningCentralized family planning• There is a strong desire for sonsThere is a strong desire for sons• Literacy 60% Literacy 60% • Low contraceptive use – 31%Low contraceptive use – 31%• 25% of the population is below the poverty line25% of the population is below the poverty line• Infant mortality is high - 6.4% Infant mortality is high - 6.4% • Child mortality(1-4 years) Child mortality(1-4 years) • 3.7% (girls)3.7% (girls)• 2.5% (boys)2.5% (boys)

Visit the following India external link

China China

• Barefoot doctors were established in rural area Barefoot doctors were established in rural area during the Cultural Revolution.during the Cultural Revolution.

• Nation wide family planning - 1972-73Nation wide family planning - 1972-73• Birth quotas were established Birth quotas were established • Incentives and disincentivesIncentives and disincentives• Free schooling, jobs and medicine to those who Free schooling, jobs and medicine to those who

signed family planning agreementsigned family planning agreement• 1985 – rural family could have 2 children if first 1985 – rural family could have 2 children if first

is girl, urban couple was allowed 1 child is girl, urban couple was allowed 1 child regardless of sex of childregardless of sex of child

• 2006 – contraceptive use 87%2006 – contraceptive use 87%• Literacy rate – 91% (2007 CIA World Factbook)Literacy rate – 91% (2007 CIA World Factbook)• Marriage age 20 for women, 22 for menMarriage age 20 for women, 22 for men

Visit the following China external link

China - reasonsChina - reasons• Why has it brought fertility below Why has it brought fertility below

replacement level ?replacement level ?

• 92% Han ethnic group. (Its easier to deal 92% Han ethnic group. (Its easier to deal with one culture rather than a number of with one culture rather than a number of diverse cultures)diverse cultures)

• The population is used to obeying The population is used to obeying authoritarian ruleauthoritarian rule

• Good family planning infrastructureGood family planning infrastructure

• Integration of family planning with Integration of family planning with economicseconomics

China - problemsChina - problems

• Some women were forced to undergo Some women were forced to undergo abortionabortion

• Female infanticide and abandonmentFemale infanticide and abandonment – – normally 105-106 boys per 100 girls. normally 105-106 boys per 100 girls. Currently, 112 boys born per 100 girls.Currently, 112 boys born per 100 girls.

• The WHO said more than 50 million The WHO said more than 50 million women were estimated to be women were estimated to be “missing” “missing” (external link)(external link) in China.in China.

Thailand Thailand

• Culture – women are treated as equalsCulture – women are treated as equals• Buddhist scripture preaches that "many Buddhist scripture preaches that "many

children make you poor.“children make you poor.“• Education – literacy 93%Education – literacy 93%• Contraceptive availability is high.Contraceptive availability is high.• Sterilization is popular.Sterilization is popular.• Government low interest (1%) loans for Government low interest (1%) loans for

agricultural projects.agricultural projects.• Unemployment 2.1% (2007 CIA World Unemployment 2.1% (2007 CIA World

Factbook)Factbook)• TFR = 1.7; BR = 14 TFR = 1.7; BR = 14

Visit the following Thailand external link

SolutionsSolutions

• Female educationFemale education

• Employment opportunitiesEmployment opportunities

• Status of womenStatus of women

• Delay marriage ageDelay marriage age

• Availability of medicine (immunization Availability of medicine (immunization etc.) etc.)

• Availability of Contraception/SterilizationAvailability of Contraception/Sterilization

• Social supportSocial support

USAUSA

• Fastest growing industrial Fastest growing industrial countrycountry

• July 1, 2007 population estimate July 1, 2007 population estimate 302.2 million302.2 million

• BR – 14; DR – 8BR – 14; DR – 8

• % natural increase = 0.6%% natural increase = 0.6%

U.S. Census Bureau U.S. Census Bureau Projections for USAProjections for USA

• USA is addingUSA is adding1.1. 1,700,000 per year through natural 1,700,000 per year through natural

increase (PBR)increase (PBR)2.2. 1,000,000 per year through 1,000,000 per year through

migrationmigration• Population growth rate = 0.92%Population growth rate = 0.92%• 33% of U.S. growth is due to 33% of U.S. growth is due to

migrationmigration

Teenage PregnancyTeenage Pregnancy• Accounts for 13% of U.S. birthsAccounts for 13% of U.S. births

• 78% of births to teens occur outside 78% of births to teens occur outside of marriageof marriage

• -U.S. teen pregnancy - twice as high -U.S. teen pregnancy - twice as high as in England and Wales or Canada, as in England and Wales or Canada, and nine times as high as in the and nine times as high as in the Netherlands or Japan.Netherlands or Japan.

National Vital Statistics Report, 1997, Vol. 47, No. 18, Table 2.

Visit the U.S. teen pregnancy external link

Percentage sexual activity rate Percentage sexual activity rate among U.S. teens - 1995among U.S. teens - 1995

Race and Fertility in U.S.Race and Fertility in U.S.

• 2001 – Population Reference Bureau 2001 – Population Reference Bureau (external link)(external link)

• non-Hispanic whites - TFR 1.9 non-Hispanic whites - TFR 1.9 • Asian Americans – TFR 2.0Asian Americans – TFR 2.0• American Indians – TFR 2.1American Indians – TFR 2.1• non-Hispanic blacks – TFR 2.2non-Hispanic blacks – TFR 2.2• Hispanics TFR 3.2.Hispanics TFR 3.2.• Continued growth (?)Continued growth (?)

Visit the U.S. fertility and race external link

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2007

Future needsFuture needs

• Median age of U.S. population is 36 yearsMedian age of U.S. population is 36 years

• Life expectancy 78 yearsLife expectancy 78 years

• 0-14 years - 21%0-14 years - 21%

• 15-64 years – 67%15-64 years – 67%

• >65 years – 12%>65 years – 12%

• Baby boom generation is agingBaby boom generation is aging

• Aging population – health care, social Aging population – health care, social security security

Contraceptives and FertilityContraceptives and Fertility

Return

Income and FertilityIncome and Fertility

Return

Contraceptive UseContraceptive Use (external link) (external link)

Region Contraceptive use among married women

More Developed countries 68%

Less Developed countries 60% (ex China)- 51%

Africa 28%

Asia 66% (ex China) -56%

Latin America 71%

North America 73%

Europe 67%

Look at the trend, do not memorize these numbers.

THE ENDTHE END

TFR and female educationTFR and female education

Return

Diverging Trends in Fertility Diverging Trends in Fertility ReductionReductionAverage number of children per woman

5.75.25.4

6.46.4

8.5

5.3

3.3

6.2

3.1

2.4 2.1

4.3

2.5

Egypt India Indonesia Iran Pakistan Turkey Yemen

1970-1975 2000-2005Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Marriage ageMarriage age

Return

Reaching Replacement FertilityReaching Replacement FertilityAverage number of children per woman

5.6

7.0

5.4

6.4

5.7

7.3

1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0

Azerbaijan Chile Iran Mauritius Thailand Tunisia

1960-1965 2000-2005

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Patterns of Fertility DeclinePatterns of Fertility DeclineAverage number of children per woman

0

2

4

6

8

10

1950–1955 1960–1965 1970–1975 1980–1985 1990–1995 2000–2005

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Uganda

Kenya

Columbia

South Korea