American Feminist Literature Justine Huber, Katrina Kennel, and Rachel Hannum.
Plaintiffs' Expert Witness Affidavit featuring testimony from Professor Robert C. Hannum
Transcript of Plaintiffs' Expert Witness Affidavit featuring testimony from Professor Robert C. Hannum
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8/10/2019 Plaintiffs' Expert Witness Affidavit featuring testimony from Professor Robert C. Hannum
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STATE OF WISCONSIN CIRCUIT COURT DANE COUNTY
STEVE VERRETT,8162 Stagecoach Road Case No: C!oss "#a$%s, WI &'&28(
a%d
)AR* *ROON+'1 -!ee% A.e%/e)ad$so%, WI &'0+
"#a$%t$s,Dec#a!ato! 3/dg4e%t
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RAD SC7I)E,Atto!%e -e%e!a#10 West )a$% St!eet)ad$so%, WI &'0'
Dee%da%t5
PLAINTIFFS EXPERT WITNESS AFFIDAVITOF PROFESSOR ROBERT C. HANNUM
STATE OF WISCONSIN 99 SS
DANE COUNTY 9
I, ROERT C5 7ANNU), he!e de;ose a%d sa /%de! oath:
15 I ha.e ee% !eta$%ed as a% e$%se!t add!ess he!e?5
Qualificati!" a!# Bac$%&u!#
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8/10/2019 Plaintiffs' Expert Witness Affidavit featuring testimony from Professor Robert C. Hannum
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25 I a4 a "!oesso! o R$s@ A%a#s$s -a4$%g at the U%$.e!s$t o De%.e!5
'5 I g!ad/ated !o4 the U%$.e!s$t o Dato%, =$th a ache#o!Bs Deg!ee 5S59 $%
)athe4at$cs $% 10+ a%d !o4 F#o!$da State U%$.e!s$t =$th a )aste!s )5S59 $% Stat$st$cs $%
106, o##o=ed a Docto!ate "h5D59 $% Stat$st$cs $% 105 I% 2+, I eca4e a F/## "!oesso! o
Stat$st$cs at the U%$.e!s$t o De%.e! cha%ged $% 21 to F/## "!oesso! o R$s@ A%a#s$s
-a4$%g9 a%d a4 a 4e4e! o the E
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a%d the /s$%ess o cas$%o ga4$%g9( Gaming $a% a co/!se he#d $% as Vegas, =$th ha#Gdoe%
=o!#dGc#ass e
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8/10/2019 Plaintiffs' Expert Witness Affidavit featuring testimony from Professor Robert C. Hannum
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Edge: )athe4at$ca# A%a#s$s o Cas$%o -a4es5 Va%c/!a, Ead$%gto%, a%d Co!%e#$/s, eds5,
U%$.e!s$t o Ne.ada Re%o "!ess5
05 I he#d a Sess$o% Cha$! at the 10, 2, a%d 2 I%te!%at$o%a# Co%e!e%ce o%
-a4#$%g a%d R$s@GTa@$%g5 I =as a !ee!ee o! t=o ;a;e!s $% the 20 .o#/4e O;t$4a# "#a:
)athe4at$ca# St/d$es o -a4#$%g5 I ha.e a#so a;;ea!ed as a eat/!ed s;ea@e! at a %/4e! o
ga4$%g co%e!e%ces, $%c#/d$%g:
a5 J"o@e! a%d S@$##,K 1+th I%te!%at$o%a# Co%e!e%ce o% -a4#$%g R$s@ Ta@$%g,
a@e Tahoe, )a, 25
5 JS/;e! "a% : U%!a.e#$%g the )ste! o the 0L a%@$%g R/#e,K 1+th
I%te!%at$o%a# Co%e!e%ce o% -a4#$%g R$s@ Ta@$%g, a@e Tahoe, )a, 25
c5 J-a4$%g )ath: 7o= Cas$%os )a@e )o%e,K 3oh%s 7o;@$%s Co%e!e%ce o!
Ed/cato!s, as Vegas, NV, 3a%/a! 25
d5 J"o@e! a%d the a=,M -a4$%g a= S4;os$/4, D!a@e a= Schoo#, Se;te4e!
285
e5 MTa#e -a4es a%d "!o$ta$#$t: )o%e, )ath, a%d )ths,M -a4$%g O;e!at$o%s
S/44$t, as Vegas, NV, A;!$# 20
5 M*%o=$%g Whe% to 7o#d BE4 a%d Whe% to Fo#d BE4: The )athe4at$cs o "o@e!,M
NSF "!og!a4 o% -a4es o Cha%ce, U%$.e!s$t o Utah, 3/# 2&5
g5 MA )athe4at$ca# A%a#s$s o Cas$%o Dead Ch$; "!og!a4s,M I%te!%at$o%a# Acade4
o /s$%ess a%d Eco%o4$cs Co%e!e%ce, Octoe! 2'5
h5 M)athe4at$cs a%d -a4$%g Reg/#at$o%,M U%$.e!s$t o Ne.ada Schoo# o a=,
Octoe! 2'5
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$5 MStat$st$ca# Sta%da!ds $% -a4$%g Reg/#at$o%: Fact a%d F$ct$o%,M I%te!%at$o%a#
)aste!s o -a4$%g a= S4;os$/4, Se;te4e! 2'5
5 M-a4$%g a= a%d )athe4at$cs,M U%$.e!s$t o Ne.ada Schoo# o a=, Se;te4e!
225
@5 M7o= Cas$%os )a@e )o%e,M As$aG"ac$$c -a4$%g Cas$%os Wo!#d Co%e!e%ce,
S$%ga;o!e, 3/%e 225
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o!a# a!g/4e%ts $% the case o% Octoe! 1, 215
5 Common%ealth o! (entuc"y v' )*) Internet +omain ames 2895 Th$s case
co%ce!%ed a go.e!%4e%t eo!t to se$e 1+1 se;a!ate do4a$% %a4es assoc$ated =$th o%#$%e
ga4#$%g5 The "o@e! "#ae!s A##$a%ce $#ed a% a4$c/s !$e a!g/$%g that the ;o@e!G!e#ated
do4a$% %a4es d$d %ot !e#ate to ga4#$%g eca/se ;o@e! $s %ot a ga4e o cha%ce5 Test$4o% .$a
a$da.$t59
c5 Peter #' Stone v' Commissioner o! Revenue Services, State o! Connecticut2695
Th$s case co%ce!%ed =hethe! o! %ot: 19 the ;#a$%t$ =as a ;!oess$o%a# ga4#e! $% the t!ade o!
/s$%ess o ga4#$%g /%de! the I%te!%a# Re.e%/e Code, 26 D5S5C5 162a9( 29 the De;a!t4e%t
o Re.e%/e Se!.$cesB $%co4e ta< =as d$sc!$4$%ato! as a;;#$ed to "#a$%t$ a%d othe! $%d$.$d/a#s
catego!$ed the Co44$ss$o%e! as %o%G;!oess$o%a# ga4#e!s( '9 the State $4;e!4$ss$#
d$sc!$4$%ated aga$%st $%d$.$d/a#s ased /;o% the t;e o ga4#$%g act$.$t e%gaged $%( a%d +9
the State se#ect$.e# e%o!ced $%co4e !e;o!t$%g !eP/$!e4e%ts aga$%st those =$%%$%g #a!ge! s/4s
o 4o%e $% ga4#$%g act$.$t$es5
d5 Thomas Cala%ay v' -isconsin +epartment o! Revenue 2&95 Th$s case
co%ce!%ed a ;et$t$o%e! =ho =as a##eged to ha.e ee% e%gaged $% a t!ade o! /s$%ess $% ;#a$%g
s#ot 4ach$%es $% as Vegas a%d At#a%t$c C$t5
15 I s;ec$a#$e, a%d a4 a% e
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115 I ha.e ee% as@ed the "#a$%t$s $% th$s case to 4a@e th$s A$da.$t a%d to test$
o% the$! eha# to ;!o.$de $%de;e%de%t e
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1+5 ett$%g $% ;o@e! ;!oceeds $% J!o/%ds5K I% a !o/%d o ett$%g, the ;#ae!s act $%
seP/e%ce, a%d ca% 4a@e o%e o se.e!a# 4o.es5 I %ood has et, the% the ;#ae! =hose t/!% $t $s
to act 4a e$the! Jchec@,K =h$ch 4ea%s that he chooses %ot to et, a%d to a##o= the %e
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8/10/2019 Plaintiffs' Expert Witness Affidavit featuring testimony from Professor Robert C. Hannum
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A%othe! !o/%d o ett$%g the% ta@es ;#ace5 Ne
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8/10/2019 Plaintiffs' Expert Witness Affidavit featuring testimony from Professor Robert C. Hannum
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cha%ce ass/4$%g the o!de! $% =h$ch ;#ae!s 4o.e $s dec$ded a !a%do4 4echa%$s495
25 eca/se e.e% $% the 4ost s@$##/# o ga4es, s/ch as go#, asea##, a%d chess, a
cha%ce e.e%ta !ea@$sh g/st o =$%d that ca!!$es a ;e!ect# st!/c@ go# a## $%to a haa!d, a%
/4;$!es ad ca##, o! the a!$t!a!$# a=a!ded ad.a%tage o ;#a$%g the =h$te s$de o the
chessoa!d4a !eP/e%t# a#te! the o/tco4e o the ga4e, $t 4a@es the 4ost se%se to as@ %ot
=hethe! s@$## a#=as a%d e
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!et$!e o! good, o! he ca% ;#a tho/sa%ds o ha%ds o.e! the co/!se o a #$et$4e5 Th/s, a%od
a%a#$%g the %at/!e o ;o@e! 4/st dec$de =hethe! to co%s$de! o%# a s$%g#e o! a e= ha%ds o
;o@e!, o! $%stead co%s$de! ;o@e! o.e! the #o%g !/%5
2+5 The #o%g !/% $s the 4ost a;;!o;!$ate !a4e=o!@, o! t=o !easo%s5
a5 F$!st, a #o%g .$e= $s the 4ost co%s$ste%t =$th the sc$e%t$$c 4ethod5 I% sc$e%ce, a%d $%
stat$st$cs es;ec$a##, #a!ge sa4;#e s$es a!e c!/c$a# to e%s/!e that the !es/#ts o a t!$a# acc/!ate#
!e#ect !ea#$t5 S4a## sa4;#e s$es, o% the othe! ha%d, c!eate a s$g%$$ca%t !$s@ o e!!o!, as o%e
!$s@s ge%e!a#$$%g !o4 $d$os%c!at$c acts5 Fo! e
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that a!e dea#t5 Th$s $%de;e%de%ce d!a=s a !$ght #$%e et=ee% s@$## a%d cha%ce, a%d a##o=s /s to
test the $%#/e%ce o e$the! acto! o% a ;#ae!s s/ccess o! a$#/!e9 $% the ga4e o Te
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8/10/2019 Plaintiffs' Expert Witness Affidavit featuring testimony from Professor Robert C. Hannum
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S@$## 1 269, htt;:HH===5ta/5ac5$#H%ogaaH"DFSHs@$##+5;dJA#o%K9 J;o@e! $s ;!edo4$%a%t# a
ga4e o s@$##K95
25 The .a#$d$t o th$s co%c#/s$o% $s /%de!sco!ed the act that $t $s has ee%
a!!$.ed at a host o scho#a!s e4;#o$%g a =$de .a!$et o e4;$!$ca# a;;!oaches5 I% 4 4ost
!ece%t st/d, /s$%g a dataase o 4o!e tha% o%e $##$o% ha%ds o !ea# o%#$%e ;o@e! $%.o#.$%g 158
4$##$o% ;#ae!s, I a%d the othe! a/tho!s ;!ese%t a !eg!ess$o%Gased 4ethod o! $so#at$%g a%d
4eas/!$%g the sste4$c cha%ce a%d s@$## e#e4e%ts $% Te
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8/10/2019 Plaintiffs' Expert Witness Affidavit featuring testimony from Professor Robert C. Hannum
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'15 To ;/t th$s 4a!g$% o .$cto! $%to ;e!s;ect$.e, co%s$de! that 4a% ;o@e! ;#ae!s
;#a ga4es $% =h$ch o%e J$g etK $s 2 P/$te a e= ;!oess$o%a#s ;#a ga4es =$th 4/ch
h$ghe! sta@es95 I% th$s s$4/#at$o%, the st!ateg$c ;#ae! =o/#d ha.e =o% a% a.e!age o '2 ;e!
ha%d !o4 the !a%do4 ;#ae!5 I% 4a% ;o@e! !oo4s, a dea#e! 4$ght dea# ' ha%ds ;e! ho/!5 Th/s,
a ;#ae! o##o=$%g a .e! as$c st!ateg co/#d e
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7o#dE4 to/!%a4e%ts et=ee% 21 a%d 2& data $%c#/ded 8 ;#ae!s $% 81 se;a!ate
to/!%a4e%ts95 Co4;a!$%g ;o@e! to go# /s$%g data !o4 ;!oess$o%a# go# to/!%a4e%ts9, a ga4e
/%$.e!sa## he#d to e ;!edo4$%a%t# s@$##Gased, the a/tho!s ose!.e that Js@$## d$e!e%ces
a4o%g to; ;o@e! ;#ae!s a!e s$4$#a! to s@$## d$e!e%ces ac!oss to; go#e!s5K The 4a$% co%c#/s$o%
$% th$s st/d $s that Jthe!e a;;ea!s to e a s$g%$$ca%t s@$## co4;o%e%t to ;o@e!: "!e.$o/s $%$shes
$% to/!%a4e%ts ;!ed$ct c/!!e%t $%$shes5K It $s 4 o;$%$o% that the co%c#/s$o%s o that ;ee!
!e.$e=ed st/d a!e co!!ect ass/4$%g the acc/!ac o $ts /%de!#$%g data5
'&5 Othe!s Dedo%%o Dette!4a%, 289 e
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'05 Us$%g a ga4eGtheo!et$c a;;!oach to st/d the !e#at$.e !o#es o s@$## a%d cha%ce $%
ga4es, othe! scho#a!s o!4 .a% de! -e%/gte%, 219 co%c#/de that the #e.e# o s@$## $% the
th!ee ;o;/#a! .a!$a%ts o ;o@e!, Se.e% Ca!d St/d, Te
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a#e to ose!.e =hethe! a ;#ae!s =$% !ate $%c!eased a#o%g =$th h$s s@$##, as 4eas/!ed h$s
$%de
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++5 As %oted ao.e, e.e! ha%d o ;o@e! $%.o#.es 4/#t$;#e dec$s$o% ;o$%ts, a%d each
o those dec$s$o%s $s $%#/e%ced %/4e!o/s acto!s !eP/$!$%g s@$##/# e.a#/at$o%5 I% o!de! to
4a@e the !$ght dec$s$o%s at the ta#e, ;o@e! ;#ae!s 4/st eco4e s@$##ed ;!act$t$o%e!s $% a .a!$et
o d$sc$;#$%es, $%c#/d$%g:
a9 )athe4at$cs, $5e5, ca#c/#at$%g odds(
9 Ose!.at$o%, $5e5, !ead$%g ha%ds a%d !ecog%$$%g ;atte!%s a%d Jte##sK(
c9 "scho#og, $5e5, assess$%g a% o;;o%e%ts 4ot$.at$o%s(
d9 "e!s/as$o% a%d dece;t$o%, $5e5, co%.$%c$%g o%es o;;o%e%t to 4a@e a 4$sta@e(
e9 3/dg4e%t, $5e5, ;!ocess$%g $%co4;#ete $%o!4at$o% P/$c@# to !each the !$ght dec$s$o%(
9 S$t/at$o%a# a=a!e%ess, $5e5, se#ect$%g ;!o$ta#e ga4es a%d e
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4/st e s/$c$e%t# ca;a#e o ;e!s/as$o% a%d dece;t$o% to $%d/ce the4 to /%=$tt$%g# 4a@e
those ad ets5 S@$##ed ;#ae!s 4a
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8/10/2019 Plaintiffs' Expert Witness Affidavit featuring testimony from Professor Robert C. Hannum
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ett$%g, a%d e$the! o#d the est ha%d o! a$# to e
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eca/se the ho/se $s d$s$%te!ested $% the o/tco4e o a ;o@e! ha%d, the co%ce!%s a%$4at$%g
#eg$s#at$o% aga$%st ga4#$%g a!e 4/ted =he% $t co4es to ;o@e!5
c5 Seco%d, ets $% ;o@e! se!.e a d$e!e%t /%ct$o% tha% ets $% t!ad$t$o%a# cas$%o ga4es5 I%
t!ad$t$o%a# cas$%o ga4es, ets s$4;# esta#$sh the a4o/%t that a ;#ae! $s =$##$%g to =age!, a%d
cha%ce $s the ;!edo4$%a%t acto!$% 4a% cases the o%# acto!that dete!4$%es the o/tco4e
o the ga4e5 The ;#ae! ;#aces h$s et, a%d the% =a$ts o! the =hee# to s;$%, ;/##s the s#otG
4ach$%e #e.e!, !o##s the d$ce, =a$ts to hea! h$s %/4e!s ca##ed, o! =atches h$s ho!se c$!c#e the
t!ac@5 The s$e o! %at/!e o h$s et has %o $4;act o% the o/tco4e5
d5 Not so $% ;o@e!5 I% ;o@e!, the ets the4se#.es co%st$t/te the ;#ae!s 4ost $4;o!ta%t
too#s to a#te! the o/tco4e o the ga4e5 ett$%g at the !$ght t$4e a%d $% the !$ght a4o/%ts,
;#ae!s ca% =$% 4o!e ;ots #/$%g the$! o;;o%e%ts $%to o#d$%g, the ca% a/g4e%t the s$e o
;ots that the ;#a% to =$%, a%d the ca% othe!=$se 4a%$;/#ate the$! o;;o%e%ts $%to 4a@$%g
4$sta@es5 Th/s, /%#$@e a Jga4#$%gK et, a ;o@e! et $s %e.e! so#e# a =age! o% the o/tco4e o a
cha%ce e.e%t( $t $s $%stead a o!4 o st!ateg$c co44/%$cat$o%, #$@e a chess 4o.e, o! a $d $%
!$dge5
&'5 Fo! the !easo%s ao.e, I co%c#/de that s@$## ;!edo4$%ates o.e! cha%ce $% Te
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cha%ce e#e4e%ts, TOP / O!!icial 0ournal o! the Spanish Society o! Statistics and Operations
Research, Vo#5 , No5 1, ;;5 1G11+5
' Caot, A5N5, 7a%%/4, R5C5 2&95 "o@e!: "/#$c ;o#$c, #a=, 4athe4at$cs a%d the /t/!e
o a% A4e!$ca% t!ad$t$o%5 T'' Cooley $' Rev', Vo#5 22, No5 ', ;;5 ++'G&1'5
+ C!oso%, R5, F$sh4a%, "5, "o;e, D5-5 2895 "o@e! s/;e!sta!s: S@$## o! #/c@ Chance, Vo#5
21, No5 +, ;;5 2&G285
& Dedo%%o, )5A5, Dette!4a%, D5*5 2895 "o@e! $s a s@$##5 Gaming $' Rev', Vo#5 12, ;;5 '1G
'65
6 7a%%/4, R5C5, Caot, A5N5 295 To=a!d #ega#$at$o% o ;o@e!: The s@$## .s5 cha%ce
deate5 Gaming Research & Revie% 0ournal, Vo#5 1', No5 1, ;; 1G25
0 7o;e, "5, )cC/##och, S5 295 Stat$st$ca# A%a#s$s o Te