Plain packaging of tobacco products: a review of the evidence

8/4/2019 Plain packaging of tobacco products: a review of the evidence

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Plainpackagingoftobaccoproducts:areviewoftheevidence

Proposed design of plain cigarette packaging.

Source: Commonwealth of Australia (2010). Public consultation on plain packaging of tobacco products.

PreparedbyQuitVictoria,CancerCouncilVictoria,May2011

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TableofContents1. .........................................................................................................................3Executivesummary

2. ....................................................................................................................................5Introduction

3. ......................................................................................................6Packaginginthemarketingmix

4. ..............................................................................................8Recenttrendsincigarettepackaging

5. ................................................................11Resultsofresearchintotheeffectsofplainpackaging

5.1Historyofinternationalresearchonplainpackaging.................................................................11

5.2Summaryofresultsofresearchbytheme..................................................................................13

5.2.1Effectsofplainpackagingoneffectivenessofhealthwarnings ..........................................13

5.2.2Effectsofplainpackagingonperceptionsofharmfulness .................................................. 13

5.2.3Effectsofplainpackagingonappealofproduct..................................................................13

5.2.4Combinedeffectofplainpackagingandhealthwarnings...................................................15

6. ..................................................................16Expertresponsestotheproposalforplainpackaging

6.1Healthsectorresponsetoproposedlegislation .........................................................................16

6.2Financialmarketresponse .......................................................................................................... 16

6.3Tobaccoindustryresponse ......................................................................................................... 17

7. ....................................19Researchrelevanttomajorindustryargumentsagainstplainpackaging

7.1Wontwork .................................................................................................................................19

7.2Willbedifficultforretailers ........................................................................................................21

7.3Representsanacquisitionofintellectualproperty.....................................................................21

7.4Hasbeenconsideredandtheideaabandonedinothercountries.............................................22

7.5Willreducepriceandcompetitioninthetobaccomarket.........................................................23

7.6Willfacilitateillicittrade .............................................................................................................24

References ............................................................................................................................................28

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1. Executive summary

Thispaperpresentsthefindingsofresearchovertwodecadesandacrossfivecountriesonthetopic

ofplainpackaging.Itincludestheresultsof24publishedexperimentalstudieswhichhaveexamined

thelikelyimpactofplainpackagingonyoungpeopleandcurrentsmokers(Section5)i.Italso

summarisestheresultsofresearchpapersthatanalyseindustryargumentsaboutbarriersto

legislationresultingfrominternationallawandtradeagreements(Section7).

Themainfindingsfromthiscompilationofliteratureareasfollows:

Inaworldwideenvironmentofincreasingprohibitionoftobaccoadvertisingandsponsorship,

thecigarettepackhasbecomethekeymarketingtoolemployedbythetobaccoindustryto

attractandretaincustomers.(Section3)

Thetobaccoindustryusescigarettepacktechnologiesandinnovationsindesigntocommunicate

particularattributesabouteachbrandandbyextensionthepersonalityandsocialstatusofits

users.(Section4)

Currentpackcoloursandimagerycandilutetheimpactofgraphichealthwarnings.(Section

5.2.1)

Unregulatedpackagecolouringandimagerycontributetoconsumersmisperceptionsthat

certainbrandsaresaferthanothers.Removingcoloursfromcigarettepacksandmisleading

termssuchassmooth,goldandsilverwouldreducefalsebeliefsabouttheharmfulnessof

cigarettes.(Section5.2.2)

Adultsandadolescentsperceivecigarettesinplainpackstobelessappealing,lesspalatable,less

satisfyingandoflowerqualitycomparedtocigarettesincurrentpackaging.Plainpackaging

wouldalsoaffectyoungpeoplesperceptionsaboutthecharacteristicsandstatusofthepeople

whosmokeparticularbrands.(Section5.2.3)

Plainpackagingfeaturinglargergraphichealthwarnings(75%frontofpack)willbothreducethe

appealofthepackandstrengthentheimpactofthewarnings.(Section5.2.4)

BritishAmericanTobaccohasclaimedthatthelegislationwillnotbeeffective,pointingtothe

resultsofaninternationalanalysisithascommissioned(andprovideddatafor)ontheimpactof

healthwarningsonsales.Healthwarningshaveadifferentobjectivetoplainpackagingand

monthlyvariationsinsalesdataarenotanappropriateindicatorofeffectiveness.Inanycasethe

dataonwhichthisanalysisisbasedishighlyselectiveandthespecificationsofthemodelling

incorrectinatleastoneimportantrespect.(Section7.1).

TheAllianceofAustralianRetailersallegesthatplainpackagingwoulddamageretailerbusiness,

increasingtransactiontimeatthecounterduetodifficultiesindifferentiatingbetweenbrands.

TheAARsuggeststhatasaresult,customerswouldswitchtodiscountoutlets.However,anyloss

ofconvenienceatretailoutletswillapplyequallytodiscountandconvenienceoutlets.Measures

includinglabellingofthecontainerswherepacksarestoredandbrandnamesprintedonpacks

inaclearfontstyleandsizewouldassistretailerstoquicklyindentifyandretrieveparticular

brands.(Section6.3and7.2)

Thetobaccoindustryclaimsplainpackagingrepresentsanacquisitionofintellectualproperty

andassuchisprohibitedunderthetermsofvariousinternationaltradeagreements.The

industryhassuggestedtheAustralianGovernmentwouldbeforcedtocompensatetheindustry

iV319.05.11.Weintendtoaddtothisreviewresultsofseveralmorestudiesthatweareinformedarecloseto

publication.

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inbillionsofdollars.Papersbyexpertsinconstitutionalandtrademarklawontheotherhand

suggestthatinternationalagreementspermitgovernmentstorestrictuseoftrademarksto

protectpublichealth.Theyadvisethatplainpackagingwillnotbeanacquisitionofintellectual

property,astheGovernmentdoesnotintendtousethelogosorbrandimagery;itwillsimplybe

restrictingtheuseofthesemarketingtoolsoncigarettepackages.IfCourtsweretorulethat

restrictionofuseoftrademarkswasanacquisitionofproperty,thenthelegislationhasbeendraftedtoallowtheuseoftrademarkswithlimitations.(Section7.3)

PlainpackaginghasbeencarefullyconsideredandresearchedinAustraliaandoverseasforsome

20years,butcontrarytoclaimsbytobaccocompaniesithasnotbeenabandonedasapolicy

option.ThepaperprovideslinkstostatementsbyparliamentariansinNewZealand,France,the

UnitedKingdomandtheEuropeanUnion,whicharealleitherundertakingpublicconsultationon

plainpackagingorhavenamedplainpackagingamongproposalsforfuturetobaccocontrol

strategies.(Section7.4)

Companieshaveclaimedthatthelegislationwillreducepriceandcompetitioninthemarket.

Opinionsofindustryanalystsaboutthelikelyeffectsoncompetitionaremixed.Aspointedout

by

Deloitte

MCS,

future

governments

have

open

to

them

the

option

of

further

increasing

excise

andcustomsdutyontobaccoproductsshouldaveragepricesoftobaccoproductsfall.(Section

7.5)

Tobaccoindustryclaimsthatplainpackagingwillincreaseillicittradeareexaggeratedand

misleading.TheindustrysestimationofthecurrentsizeoftheillicitmarketinAustralia(15.9%)

isbasedononeverysmallsurvey(949people)withaverylowresponserate.TheGovernments

NationalDrugStrategyHouseholdSurveyofmorethan23,000peoplesuggeststhatonlyabout

0.2%ofAustralians(1.2%ofsmokers)useunbrandedtobaccoproductshalfthetimeormore.

TheAustralianGovernmentsdraftplainpackaginglegislationspecifiesthatanticounterfeiting

markingswillbepermittedonplainpackaging,andtheAustralianTaxationOfficeandthe

AustralianCustomsandBorderProtectionServiceshouldandnodoubtwillcontinueto

vigorouslypursuetechnologiesandothersurveillanceandenforcementstrategiestopreventtheevasionofexciseandcustomsdutyinthiscountry.(Section7.6)

Insummarytherearestronggroundsforbelievingthatcurrentpackagingglamourisessmokingand

thattobaccoproductspackagedinastandardisedcolour,typefaceandformwould:

improvetheeffectivenessofhealthwarnings

reducemisconceptionsaboutrelativeharmfulnessofvariousbrandsand

reducetheoverallappealofsmoking

Theintensityofoppositiontoplainpackaginglegislationbytobaccocompaniessuggeststhat

tobaccoindustryexecutivesbelievethatsuchmeasureswillreducesalesandcompanyprofits.

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2. Introduction

Tobaccoproductsareuniqueamongconsumeritemsinthattheycausetheprematuredeathof

everysecondlongtermuser.Whileitisimpracticaltobanthepurchaseofaproductthatsomany

peoplefindsodifficulttoquit,governmentstheworldoverhaveacceptedthatitisunethicalto

encourageuseoftobaccoandappropriatetolegislatetopreventallformsofitspromotion.Despite

theeffortsofgovernmentstocomprehensivelydiscouragesmoking,innovationinpackaginghas

resultedincontinuingpromotionoftobaccoproducts.

Onthe29thApril2010theAustralianGovernmentannounced[1]twoofitsmajorresponsestothe

recommendations[2]ofitsPreventativeHealthTaskforce[3]whichhadsetoutacomprehensive

packageofmeasurestomakeAustraliathehealthiestcountrybytheyear2020.Aproposalto

mandateplainpackagingforalltobaccoproductssoldinAustraliawasthecentrepieceofthe

Governmentsresponse.PlainpackagingrecognisesAustraliascommitmentasasignatorytothe

WorldHealthOrganizationFrameworkConventiononTobaccoControl[4]andhasbeenwidely

applaudedbyhealthagenciesbothinAustraliaandinternationally.Ithasalsobeenvigorously

opposedbythetobaccoindustrywhichhascommissionedanumberofreportsthatsetoutitsobjectionstotheproposal.

Thispapercompilesandwhereverpossibleprovideselectroniclinkstomorethan130publications

relevanttothetopicofplainpackaging.Itbrieflysummarisesdiscussionofpackaginginthe

marketingliterature(Section3)anddocumentsnumerousexamplesofincreasingreliancebythe

tobaccoindustryonpackagingasamarketingtool(Section4).Thesearedrawnbothfromtrade

pressandfrominternalcompanydocumentsreleasedaspartofsettlementoflegalactionbetween

tobaccocompaniesandattorneysgeneralintheUnitedStatesunderthetermsofwhichallcompany

documentsbothhistoricalandcontemporary,bothintheUSandinoverseassubsidiariesare

releasedonacontinuingbasis.iiItsummarisesthefindingsof24publishedstudiesconductedto

carefullyandsystematicallytestandquantifythelikelyimpactofplainpackaging(Section5).It

recordsthereactionsofvariousexpertgroupstotheAustralianGovernmentsannouncementabout

plainpackaging(Section6).Finallyitdescribesresearchrelevanttosomeofthemajorarguments

againstplainpackaging,providinglinkstosubmissionsbytobaccocompaniesandothersopposing

suchlegislationaswellasresearchpapersthatanalyseindustryargumentsaboutvarious

unintendedconsequencesitenvisagesforretailersandgovernment(Section7).

ii Thesehavebeencomprehensively cataloguedbyseveralUSuniversitiesandareeasilysearchableonline.See

Hhttp://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/H

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3. Packaging in the marketing mix

Packagingact(s)asapromotionaltoolinitsownright.

PalmerA.Theproduct.InPalmer,AJ,eds,In:Principlesofmarketing.2000

(p215).[5]Theproductpackageisthecommunicationlifebloodofthefirmorthesilentsalesman

thatreachesouttocustomers.

UnderwoodandOzanne(p208).[6]

ifyousmoke,acigarettepackisoneofthefewthingsyouuseregularlythatmakesa

statementaboutyou.Acigarettepackistheonlythingyoutakeoutofyourpocket20times

adayandlayoutforeveryonetosee.Thatsalotdifferentthanbuyingyoursoappowderin

genericpackaging.

BrownandWilliamsonemployee(p5).[7]

TheconceptofamixofmarketingfunctionswasconceivedbyProfessorNeilBordenoftheHarvard

BusinessSchool.PerhapsthebestknowndefinitionofthismixisthatproposedbyMcCarthywho

talkedofthefourPsofmarketing.[8]Packagingdifferentiatesbrands,beingparticularlyimportantin

homogenousconsumerproductssuchascigarettes.[9]iiiColoursandtypefacehavelongbeenknown

toelicitparticularresponsesinconsumers,oftenshapedbystrongsocialandculturalforces.

Imageryandsymbolsalsoexertpowerfuleffects,linkingdesirableattributeswithparticularbrands.

Theworldsmostpopularcigarettebrand,Marlboro,[10]canreadilybeidentifiedthroughitsiconic

redchevron.Sociologically,asymbolactsasastimuluselicitingaparticularresponsebasedon

peoplesunderstandingofmeaning.TheheraldiccoatsofarmsonBensonandHedgespacksfor

instanceisanabstractwordlesssymbolthatimpartsnotionsofstatusandattestedquality.[11]

Withtheincreasingprevalenceoftobaccoadvertisingandsponsorshipbansthroughouttheworld,

thepackhasfastbecomethemostimportantpromotionalvehicleforreachingpotentialandcurrentsmokers.[12][13][14][15][16][17][18]

TheGovernmentofNorwayintroducedwhatwastheworldsmostcomprehensivebanon

advertisingin1975,andyetaqualitativestudyconductedin2003ofyoungadultNorwegian

smokersaged1823(bornfivetotenyearsafterthebancameintoplace)highlightshowthe

tobaccoindustrycontinuestomarkettothisdemographicthroughpersuasivecigarettepackdesign.

Thestudyshowedhowcigarettebrandsandcigarettepackagedesignsgavemeaningtopersonal

characteristics,tosocialidentityandtopositionsinhierarchiesofstatus.Intheyoungsmokers

accounts,brandsappearedtoaddanextradimensiontothesocialmeaningofsmokingintheirdaily

life.[19]

Morerecently

several

nations

have

banned

the

open

display

of

tobacco

products

in

retail

locations.

Thesejurisdictionshavereasoned:

Powerwallsandcountertopdisplaysarehighlyvisibleandeyecatching.Theypresentan

unavoidableandunfortunatespillofpromotionalimageryandproductremindersto

vulnerableconsumersincludingyoungpeople,formersmokersandsmokersofallages

whoaretryingtoquit(p8).[20]

iiiPortionsofthismaterialaredrawnfrom:FreemanB,ChapmanSandRimmerM.Review:thecaseforthe

plainpackagingoftobaccoproducts.Addiction2008;103:58090. Availablefrom

Hhttp://tobacco.health.usyd.edu.au/assets/pdfs/tobaccorelatedpapers/Addiction_generic.pdfH

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Withremovalofpointofsaleasanopportunityforpromotion,BritishAmericanTobaccoandPhilip

Morris[21]havepredictedthat,inthefuture,packdesignalonewilldrivebrandimagery.[22] Unless

governmentsimposefurtherrestrictionsonpackaging,bansontheretaildisplayoftobaccowill

encourageafurthershiftinindustryinvestmenttowardsinnovativepackdesign,withthepack

functioningastheonlyremainingvehicleforproductpromotion.

Uniqueamongindustries,thetobaccoindustryhaslongclaimedthatithasnointerestinattracting

newcustomers(i.e.nonsmokers)butisinterestedonlyinstimulatingbrandswitchingandin

maintainingbrandloyaltyincurrentcustomers.[23]Howeverinternalindustrydocumentscandidly

acknowledgethevitalimportanceofattractingnew(predominantlyyoung)smokers.[22][24][25]

[26][27][28]Thesedocumentsconfirmthatcompanieshaveinvestedheavilyinpackdesigninorder

tocommunicatespecificmessagestospecificdemographicgroupsincludingyoungpeople.[18][22]

Intheearly1990sapresenteraddressingmarketingstaffatPhilipMorrisremarkedthatsmokers:

arereadyforchangeandonceexposedtoinnovative{packaging}especiallyyoungadults

seetheircurrentpackagingasdatedandboring(p2).[29]

Thepresenterwentontoencourage

Packsaimedatyoungerwomenshouldbeslick,sleek,flashy,glittery,shiny,silky,

bold(p9).[29]

Packdesigndoesntjustcommunicatethepersonalityofacigarettebrandtothesmoker...italso

allowssmokerstoprojectthesecharacteristicstootherswhentheyhandleanddisplaythepackage

throughouttheirdailyroutines.[18]Justasdesignerclothing,accessoriesandcarsserveassocialcues

tostyle,status,valuesandcharacter,sotoocancigarettepackssignifyarangeofattributesabout

users.Asbadgeproducts,cigarettescanreinforcethecharacteristicsconjuredbybrandimage.[18]

[7][30][31][32][33] Thisbehaviournotonlyaffectsthesingleconsumerbutalsoexertsapowerful

effectontheirfriends,associatesandevencasualcontacts.Consumertheoryandresearchhas

demonstratedthatincidentalbrandencounters(ICBEs)powerfullyaffectbuyingpatternsinwaysin

whichtheconsumerisnotfullyaware.AseriesoffourstudiesbyFerraro,BettmandandChartrandpublishedintheJournalforConsumerResearchin2008forinstancefoundthatrepeatedexposureto

simulatedICBEs:

increaseschoiceofthefocalbrandamongpeoplenotawareofthebrandexposure,that

perceptualfluencyunderliestheseeffectsandtheseeffectsaremoderatedbyperceivers

automaticresponsestothetypeofuserobservedwiththebrand.(p729).[34]

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4. Recent trends in cigarette packaging

Intheearly1900sbeforetheadventoftelevisionandradio,collectablecigarettecardswereamajor

formofinpackpromotion.[35] Restrictionsonadvertisingoftobaccothroughthemassmediahave

promptedmanufacturerstoacontemporaryreturntothepackageastheprimarysourceof

promotion.

Ifyourbrandcannolongershoutfrombillboards,letalonefromthecinemascreenorthe

pagesofaglossymagazineitcanatleastcourtsmokersfromtheretailersshelf,orfrom

whereveritisplacedbythosealreadywedtoit.(p17)[13]

Manyarticlesinthetobaccoindustrytrademagazine,WorldTobacco, inrecenttimeshaveurged

manufacturerstousepackagingasanadvertisingtool[36][37][38][14][15][16][17] andadvances

inprintingtechnologyhaveenabledmanufacturerstotakepromotionthroughpackagingtoawhole

newlevel.Recentdevelopmentsincludeprintingofonpackimageryontheinnerframecard,[39]

outerfilmandteartape,[14]andtheincorporationofholograms,collectableart,metallic

finishes,[40]multifoldstickers,[16]photographs,andretroimagesinpackdesign.[41][42][43]

Withtheuptakeofprintedinnerframecardswhatwewillincreasinglyseeisthepackbeing

viewedasatotalopportunityforcommunicationsfromprintedouterfilmandteartape

throughtotheinnerframeandinnerbundle.Eachpackcomponentwillprovidean

integratedfunctionaspartofacarefullyplannedbrandorinformationcommunications

campaign(p37).[39]

Innovationsincigarettepackagingincludenotjustembellishmentstothepack,butalsothe

incorporationofdesignfeaturesoncigarettesthemselves.

Figure 1 A cigarette printed with the colours of the Dutch soccer team

Source: Raf de Ryck (private collection)

ExamplesofinnovationinpackaginginAustraliaincludethefollowing:

During200002aseriesofsubtlechangestocigarettepacksandtrademarkswere

observedonbothBenson&HedgesandWinfieldcigarettepacks.[44] Whenresearchers

calledthecompanytoenquireaboutthechanges,anemployeesaidtheywereplaying

withthelogobecausewecantdoanyadvertisinganymore(p154).[44]

InFebruary2006,onemonthpriortotheadoptionofpicturebasedwarningson

tobaccopackages,PeterStuyvesantcigaretteswerebeingsoldintrendyretrostyletins

which,unlikesoftpacketsofcigaretteswithonpackprintedwarnings,hadhealth

warningstickersthatwereeasilypeeledoff(p151)[45](Figures2and3).Retailers

reportedthatthetinswereverypopularwithyoungersmokers.

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Figure 2 Peter Stuyvesantcigarettes packed in a tin container with a removable warningSource: Quit Victoria

Figure 3 Another Peter Stuyvesant tin

Source: Quit Victoria

BritishAmericanTobaccoAustralia(BATA)introducedsplitDunhillpacksinOctober

2006.[46]Thepackcouldbesplitalongaperforatedlinetocreatetwominipacks,

easilysharedbetweentwosmokersperhapsunabletoaffordafullpack(Figure4).

Oncesplit,oneofthetwopacksdidnotbearthemandatorygraphichealth

warning.[47]iv

ivBATAremovedthepacketsfromthemarketwhenitwasfoundtobeinbreachoftobaccoproductlabelling

laws.

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Figure 4 Split package of Dunhill cigarettes

Source: Quit Victoria

Whenthedescriptivetermslightandmildwereprohibited,andcigarettetar

yieldswerescheduledtobereplacedwithqualitativeinformationaboutharmful

constituents,theindustryrespondedbydevelopingcolourcodedpackageswith

newterms:NowyourHorizoncustomerscangettheirfavouritebrandinanexciting

newlookpack.Withnewdescriptorsandclearernumbersallourpacksaremuch

easiertoidentify.Researchprovesthatyourcustomerswillfindthenewpackmore

appealingandaloteasiertorecognize(p214).[48]

Legislationmandatingplainpackagingthatcoveredallaspectsofthedesignofsticksandeverypart

ofthepack(includinginserts,cardboardandcellophanewrap)wouldeffectivelystandardisethe

appearanceofallbrandsoftobaccoproducts,greatlyreducingthestatussignallingroleandappeal

ofcigarettes.[49]

Figure 5 An example of cigarettes in proposed plain packaging as proposed by health groups in 2010

Source: VicHealth Centre for Tobacco Control

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5. Results of research into the effects of plain packaging

Asplainpackshaveneverbeenlegislated,evidenceabouttheirpossibleimpactnecessarilyderives

fromexperimentalstudieswheresubjectshavetypicallybeenpresentedwithbothbrandedand

mockedupplainpacksandaskedaboutassociationsandpreferences.

5.1 History of international research on plain packaging

In1995anexpertpanelprovidedtotheCanadianDepartmentofHealthacomprehensivereviewof

thelikelyeffectsofplainpackagingentitledWhenPackagesCantSpeak:PossibleImpactsofPlain

andGenericPackagingofTobaccoProducts.[50]

Tothattime,foursetsofstudieshadbeenconductedonplainpackagingofcigarettes:

thesocalledMarlborostudy(Trachtenberg,1987)[51]

theNewZealandstudyset(BeedeandLawson,1992[52,53];Beedeet.al.,1991[54])

theAustralianstudy(CentreforBehaviouralResearchinCancer,1992)[55]and

theUniversityofTorontostudy(CentreforHealthPromotion,1993)[56].

Theexpertpanelfoundthatallfourstudiesproducedsomeevidencetosupportthehypothesisthat

plainandgenericpackagingmadecigaretteslessattractiveandappealing.Nocomparablestudy

providingcontraryevidencewasknowntoexist.[50]

TheresearchobjectivesoftheCanadianexpertpanelwere:

toassessthepotentialimpactofplainandgenericpackagingofcigarettesonthelikelihoodof

smokinguptake;

toassessthepotentialimpactofplainandgenericpackagingofcigarettesontherecognition

andrecallofhealthwarningmessagesoncigarettepackages;

toassessthepotentialimpactofplainandgenericpackagingofcigarettesonthelikelihoodof

cessationofsmoking;

toevaluatealternativedesignsforplainandgenericpackagingofcigarettesintermsoftheir

potentialimpactontheuptakeorcessationofsmoking;and

toprojectpossibleindustryresponsestoplainandgenericpackagingbyexamininghistorical

evidenceandtheoryofcompetitionregardingtheactionsofcompaniesinindustries

characterizedbyincreasingcommoditization.

Totacklethesefiveoverallobjectives,theExpertPanelconceived,conductedandanalysedfindings

ofabatteryofsixdifferentstudiesemployingfivemethodologicalapproaches.[50]

Study Method

1)NationalSurveyofadolescents Survey directquestioning/withinsubjectdesign

2)WordImageSurvey Survey directquestioning/withinsubjectdesign

3)VisualImageExperiment Experiment directquestioning/withinandbetweensubjectdesign

4)RecallandRecognitionExperiment Experiment directquestioning/betweensubjectdesign

5)ConjointExperiment Experiment indirectquestioning/withinsubjectdesign

6)AnalysisofIndustryEffects Analysisofprecedentsofindustrycompetitive&strategyactivitiesincommodity

industries

Thenationalsurveyofadolescentsshowedthatteenagerswerehighlyawareofcigarettebrands.Around90%wereabletorecognizethetwomajorCanadianbrandsevenwhenbrandnameswere

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removedfrompackaging,withteenagerswhowereexperimentingwithsmokingonaverageableto

recognise2.9brandsandregular/frequentteenagesmokers5.9.Forallbrands,package

approacheswerethefirstthingmentionedbythemajorityofrespondentswhocorrectlyidentified

thebrandasmethodsbywhichcompaniespromotedawarenessofbrands. Whileteenagersrarely

admittothelikelihoodofpromotionalstrategiesaffectingthem,asurprisinglylargeproportion

reportedthathavingcigarettesavailableonlyinplainpackagingwouldbotherthemalot(23.8%).Manyrespondentsbelievedthathavingcigarettesavailableonlyinplainandgenericpackageswould

haveaneffectonthenumberofteenagerswhowouldstartsmoking.Morethanonethird(35.8%)

believedthatafewlesswouldstartsmokingand13.5%believedthatalotfewerwouldstart

smoking.Almostfortypercent(38.2%)believedthatplainpackagingwouldpromptmoreteenagers

tostopsmoking.

Thewordimagesurveyaimedtoassesstheassociationsteenagersmadeaboutproductsandabout

smokersthroughcomparingthepackagingofapopularandlesswellknownbrandtoplain

packaging.Thecurrent,brandedpackagingwasassociatedwithamorepositiveimagethantheplain

whitepackaging.Theresearchersconcludedthatwhileplainpackagingwouldnotpreventcigarettes

frombeingusedtoconveyanimageofbeingateensmoker,packagingcigarettesinplainand

genericpackageswouldreducetheabilitiesofbrandstodifferentiatethemselvesfromeachotherandthereforetheabilitytolinkpersonalimagewiththebrand.Totheextentthatteensattemptto

useaparticularcigarettebrandasabadgeoftheirownselfimage,aparticularbrandwouldbecome

alessusefulinstrument.[50][57]

Thevisualimageexperimentshowedthatteensaremuchlesslikelytoassociatespecificbrandswith

specifictypesofpeoplewhenpacksareplain,andevenlesssowhenplainpacksalsofeatureda

photoofalung.[50] Theresearchersconcludethat

Denudingcigarettepackagesofmajorelementsoftheirbrandmarkings(otherthantheirname)

appearstolimitteenagers'capacitytoassociatespecificimageswithspecificbrands.Underthese

circumstances,thesebrandslosetheirbadgevalueandselfdefiningcharacteristics.Whenthese

characteristicsrepresentkeymotivatorsinteenagers'decisionstosmoke,thenitseemsreasonableto

concludethatplainandgenericpackagingcanbeausefulstrategyinattemptingtodemarketcigarettes

toteenagersbecauseitwouldmakeitmoredifficulttobuildormaintainbrandequity.(Section6.3.4,p

101)

Therecallandrecognitionexperimentfoundthatatleastonewarning,Smokingcankillyou,was

betterrecalledwhenitwasontheplainpackagewheretherestofthepackagehadfewer

competingmessages.Theteensfavouritebrand,duMaurier,wasrecalledlesswhenitwasina

plainpackageasopposedtothefamiliarredpackage.

Conjointanalysisisamultivariatetechniqueusedspecificallytounderstandhowconsumersdevelop

preferencesforproductsandservicesbasedonthesimplepremisethatconsumersevaluatethe

utilityofaproductorserviceidea(realorhypothetical)bycombiningtheseparateamountsofutility

providedbyeachattribute.Whilepricewasfoundtobethemostimportantcontributortodecisions

aboutsmoking,researchersconcludedthatplainpackagingwouldalsoinfluencedecisionsabout

uptakeofsmokingandquitting.

Onthebasisofadetailedanalysisofthefindingsofallfiveofthesestudiesseechart1,pages152

155,theexpertpanelconcluded:

Virtuallyallthefindingsofthesefivestudiesconvergeonthefollowingconclusions.Plainandgenericpackaging

oftobaccoproducts(allotherthingsbeingequal),throughitsimpactonimageformationandretention,recall

andrecognition,knowledge,andconsumerattitudesandperceivedutilities,wouldlikelydepresstheincidenceof

smokinguptakebynonsmokingteens,andincreasetheincidenceofsmokingcessationbyteenandadult

smokers.Thisimpactwouldvaryacrossthepopulation.Theextentofchangeinincidenceisimpossibletoassess

exceptthroughfieldexperimentsconductedovertime.[50]p158

SincetheCanadianexpertreview,furtherresearchhasbeenconductedinCanada,[58][59][60][61][62][63]theUnitedStates,[64]Australia,[65][66][67][68]theUnitedKingdom[69]New

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Zealand[70]andacrosscountries.[71]Thisresearchhasfocussedontheeffectsofplainpackagingon

awareness,recallandimpactofhealthwarnings,[53][55][61]onperceptionsofriskinessoftobacco

products,[62][69][71] andontheappealofbrandsandproducts.[52][54][58][65][66][67][70]

[68][63][64][68]

5.2 Summary of results of research by themeInareviewofevidenceontheeffectsofplainpackagingconductedupto2009Hammond

concludes:[72]

Theevidenceindicatesthreeprimarybenefitsofplainpackaging:increasingthe

effectivenessofhealthwarnings,reducingfalsehealthbeliefsaboutcigarettes,andreducing

brandappealespeciallyamongyouthandyoungadults.Overall,theresearchtodate

suggeststhatplainpackagingregulationswouldbeaneffectivetobaccocontrolmeasure,

particularlyinjurisdictionswithcomprehensiverestrictionsonotherformsofmarketing.

The following four sections summarise the findings of studies to dateboth before and since

Hammondsreviewthathaveexaminedthesemajorpotentialbenefitsofplainpackaging.

5.2.1 Effects of plain packaging on effectiveness of health warnings

Plainpackresearchshowsconsistentlythatpackbrandimagerydistractsfromandthereforereduces

theimpactofhealthwarnings.Studentshaveanenhancedabilitytorecallhealthwarningsonplain

packs.[53][61]Healthwarningsonplainpacksareseenasbeingmoreseriousthanthesame

warningsonbrandedpacks,suggestingthatbrandimagerydiffusestheoverallimpactofhealth

warnings.[60]Amulticountrytobaccosurveyexaminingtheeffectivenessofwarningsshowedthat

smokersinCanada,whowereatthetimeofthestudyexposedtolarge,picturebasedwarnings,

weresignificantlymorelikelytoreportthinkingaboutthehealthrisksofsmoking,tostopfrom

havingacigarette,andtothinkaboutquittingbecauseofthehealthwarnings.[73]Thesamestudy

alsoshowedthatthelargerandmoreprominentahealthwarning,themorelikelyitwastobe

recalled.Plainpackagingwouldenablethewarningsizetobefurtherincreasedandallowfor

additionalinformationelaboratingonwarningsandaboutsmokingcessationtobeprintedonpacks.

5.2.2 Effects of plain packaging on perceptions of harmfulness

Unregulatedpackagecolouringandimagerycontributestoconsumermisperceptionsthatcertain

brandsaresaferthanothers.[18][21][62][74] Thecolourofpacksisalsoassociatedwith

perceptionsofriskandbrandappeal:comparedwithMarlboropackswitharedlogo,Marlboro

packswithagoldlogowereratedaslowerhealthriskby53%andeasiertoquitby31%ofadult

smokersinaUKstudy.[69]Astudyof8243smokersfromtheUS,theUK,CanadaandAustraliain

2006similarlyfoundthatsmokersofgold,silver,blueorpurplebrandsweremorelikelytobelieve

thattheirownbrandmightbealittlelessharmfulcomparedtosmokersofredorblackbrands.[71]Researchersinbothstudiesconcludedthatremovingcoloursfrompacks(plainpackaging),aswellas

termssuchas'smooth''gold'and'silver'wouldsignificantlyreducefalsebeliefs.

5.2.3 Effects of plain packaging on appeal of product

Theappealoftobaccoproductscanbeunderstoodintermsoftheappealofthepackormore

broadlyasperceptionsaboutthesensoryappealoftheproduct(intermsoftaste,smoothnessetc)

ormorebroadlystillintermsofthetypesorcharacteristicsofpeoplelikelytouseparticularbrands.

AnAustralianstudypublishedin2008involvingmorethan800adultsmokersexaminedtheeffects

oftheappealoftobaccoproductsofprogressivelyreducingtheamountofpackbrandingdesign

information.AsillustratedinFigure6below,theplainestpackswereseenaslessattractive(brand/packcharacteristic),smokersofthepackswereseenassignificantlylessstylishandsociable

13


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(smokercharacteristic)andthecigarettesinthepackswerethoughttobelesssatisfyingandof

lowerquality(sensoryperception).[66]

40

45

50

55

60

65

Positive pack

attributes

Positive smoker

attributes

Positive sensory

features

Figure 6 Level of attractiveness of increasingly plainer tobacco packaging

Source: Wakefield MA, Germain D and Durkin SJ. How does increasingly plainer cigarette packaging influenceadult smokers perceptions about brand image? An experimental study. Tobacco Control 2008;17:41621.[66]

Asimilarlydesignedstudyinvolvingadolescentspublishedin2009foundthatprogressively

removingbrandelementssuchascolour,brandedfontsandimageryfromcigarettepacks,resulted

inadolescentsmokersseeingpacksaslessappealing,havingmorenegativeexpectationsofcigarette

tasteandratingattributesofatypicalsmokerofthepacklesspositively.[67]

ACanadianstudy(resultsofwhichwerepublishedinpapersonlineinMarch2011[63]andaUS

studypublishedinApril2011[64])examinedtheeffectsofremovalofbrandimageryonyoung

femalesmokersaged18to25years.Participantswereaskedtoviewimagesoffemaleoriented

brands

ascurrentlypackaged

inthesamepackswithbrandnamesbutwithoutdescriptorsand

inplainwhitepacksonceagainwithbrandnamesbutwithoutdescriptors.

Theywerethenaskedtorateeachpackforappeal,taste,healthrisksandtarlevels.IntheCanadian

study,thehighestratedfemalepack,CapriCherry,wasratedmoreappealingthanotherbrandsby

almost67%ofparticipants.Theresearchersfoundthatremovingdescriptorsandcoloursfrompacks

substantiallyreducedtheappealoffemaleorientedbrandsforfemalesmokers:forexample,the

appealofCapriCherryfellfrom67%to17%amongwomenwhoviewedplainpackswithoutthe

wordCherry.

Plain

packs

were

also

associated

with

significantly

fewer

positive

characteristics

than

fullybrandedpacks,includingglamour,beingslim,popular,attractiveandsophisticated.Of

14


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particularnote,youngwomenintheplainpackconditionweresignificantlylesslikelytobelievethat

smokinghelpspeoplestayslimcomparedtoparticipantsinthenodescriptorscondition.[63]

FindingsweresimilarintheUSstudy.Amongsmokerswhorequestedapackattheendofthestudy,

femalebrandedpackswerethreetimesmorelikelytobeselectedthanplainpacks.Researchers

concluded:

Plainpackagingandremovingdescriptorssuchasslimsfromcigarettepacksmayreduce

smokingsusceptibilityamongyoungwomen.[64]

5.2.4 Combined effect of plain packaging and health warnings

Isitpossiblethattheappealoftobaccoproductscouldbereducedsimplybyincreasingthesizeof

healthwarningsratherthanbyremovingbrandingelementsthroughplainpackaging?

Asoutlinedabove,plainpackagingunderminesthepositiveimageofbrands,increasesthenegative

aspectsofbrandimageandreducespositivetasteexpectations. Andashasbeenfoundinextensive

researchontheeffectofhealthwarnings,largerhealthwarningsaremorenoticeable,memorable

andthereforemorelikelytoelicitcessationrelatedattitudesandbehavioursv.AnAustralianstudy

fundedbytheNationalHealthandMedicalResearchCouncil,resultsofwhichwerepresentedatthe2011meetingoftheSocietyforResearchinTobaccoandNicotinespecificallyexploredthequestion

ofwhetherremovingthecolouranddesignfeaturesofpackagingwasmoreeffectivethanincreasing

thesizeofhealthwarningsinreducingtheappealofbrands.[68] Thestudyfoundthatoncepacks

wereplain,increasingthesizeofthefrontofpackhealthwarningsfrom30%to70%ormoredidnot

furtherreducebrandappeal.Whileotherresearchindicatesthatlargerhealthwarningsarelikelyto

bemorenoticeableandmemorabletoconsumers,inthisstudyplainpackagingwasmuchmore

effectivethanincreasingthesizeofhealthwarningsinreducingtheappealofthebrand.

Giventhedualobjectiveof

a. preventingcompaniesfrompackagingtobaccoproductsinawaythatincreasestheirappeal

particularlytoyoungpeopleand

b. informingconsumersaseffectivelyaspossibleaboutthehealthrisksofsmoking,

whatthenistheoptimalsizeofhealthwarningsoncigarettesinplainpackaging?

ANewZealandstudypublishedinTobaccoControlin2010providessomeguidancehere.[70]The

studyexaminedthecombinedeffectsofhealthwarningsandplainpackagingonthelikelihoodof

youngadults18to30yearsengaginginbehavioursknowntobelinkedtocessation.Smokersinthis

studywereaskedwhichpacktheywouldbemostandleastlikelytochooseeachtimetheywere

repeatedlypresentedwithfourcigarettepacketsfeaturingdifferentbrandingandwarningsize

combinations.Packswiththegreatestnumberofbrandingelementswerestillpreferredevenwhen

thewarningswereincreasedfrom30to50%.Howevertheywerelesslikelytobechosenwitha75%

warning.Plainpacketswith75%healthwarningsweresignificantlymorelikelytoelicitstrongercessationlinkedintentions(toreducetheamountsmoked;increasequitattempts;increasehelp

seekingtoquit)thanwerebrandedpackswitha30%frontofpackwarnings.

vSeeHhttp://www.smokefree.ca/warnings/Research.htmHforadetailedcompilationofevidence.

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6. Expert responses to the proposal for plain packaging

Onthe7thApril2011theAustralianGovernmentreleasedaconsultationpaper[75]anddraft

exposurelegislationfortheTobaccoPlainPackagingBill2011[76]priortoscheduledconsideration

ofthebillinthewintersessionoftheAustralianParliament.[77]

6.1 Health sector response to proposed legislation

TheGovernmentsannouncementaboutitsintentiontointroduceplainpackagingreceived

overwhelmingsupportfromthehealthsector,withspokespeopledescribingtheannouncementas

themostimportantnationaldevelopmentintobaccocontrolsincetobaccoadvertisingwasbanned

inthe90s[78]andcommentingthatitwasdifficulttoexaggeratetheimportanceofsuch

reforms.[79][80]

Onreleaseoftheexposurebill,ProfessorMikeDaube,PresidentofthePublicHealthAssociationof

Australiaremarked:

Thetobaccoindustryhasrespondedtothismovemoreferociouslytoanythingintobaccocontrolin20yearsandIthinkthatsendsoutasignal,ifthetobaccoindustryissoworriedaboutit,thenwe've

gottobeontherighttrack.[81]

ProfessorofpublichealthandformereditoroftheBritishMedicalJournalsTobaccoControlSimon

Chapmancommented:

Ithinkit'simpossibletounderestimate theglobalimportanceofthisannouncement.Ican'tthinkof

anyotherconsumergoodanywhereintheworldwheregovernmentshavesaidthisisentirelyhow

youmustpackagethisproductforconsumers,andIthinkthat'sreallyappropriatebecausethe

numberofpeoplewhoarekilledbytobaccoeveryyeargloballyandinAustraliaisastronomical.[82]

OutgoingdirectoroftheCancerCouncilVictoriaandPresidentoftheInternationalUnionAgainst

CancerProfessorDavidHillstated:

Thereisnogreaterbarometertothelikelysuccessofaproposedtobaccocontrolinitiativethanthe

responseofthetobaccoindustry...IcommendtheAustraliangovernmentforitscourageintackling

thisvitalpublichealthissueandIurgeallmembersofParliamenttotakethisopportunitytosavethe

livesofthousandsofyoungAustraliansbypassingthislegislation.Itistimetosayenough.[83]

NewZealandAssociateHealthMinisterTarianaTuriarespondedtotheAustralianreleaseofdraft

legislationon7April2011stating:

Weareverysupportiveoftoday'sannouncementbyAustralianhealthministerNicolaRoxonanditis

myexpectationthatNewZealandwillinevitablyfollowtheirleadandlooktointroducetheplain

packagingoftobaccoproducts.[84]

Cynthia

Callard,

Executive

Director

of

Physicians

for

a

Smoke

Free

Canada

remarked:

Thebenefitsofplainandstandardizedpackagingfortobaccoproductsarewellestablished.Thisisa

healthmeasuresupportedattheinternationallevelbytheWorldHealthOrganization's globalpublic

healthtreaty,theFrameworkConventiononTobaccoControl.[85]

6.2 Financial market response

Whilehealthgroupsandexpertspraisedthemove,financialmarketsappearedtoviewthe

legislationasabigriskforindustryprofitability.Investmentbank,Citigroup,immediatelyissueda

statementexpressingtheviewthatplainpackagingwasthebiggestregulatorythreattothe

industry,aspackagingisthemostimportantwaytobaccocompanieshavetocommunicatewiththe

consumeranddifferentiatetheirproducts.[86]InJanuaryandMarch2011itcontinuedtowarn

investorsaboutthethreatposedbypackagingreforms.[87,88]

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6.3 Tobacco industry response

ImperialTobaccostatedatthetimeoftheGovernmentsannouncementthatitwouldmakeevery

efforttoprotectitsbrandsandassociatedintellectualpropertyandincluding,ifnecessary,takelegal

action.[89],andrepeatedthispositiononthereleaseofthedraftlegislation.

Plainpackaginghasnotbeenintroducedinanycountryintheworldandthereisnoevidencetosupportthegovernment'sclaimthatthiswillreducesmoking,thecompanysaidinastatement.[90]

Presumablyinanticipationofthelegislation,PhilipMorrisInternationallaunchedanentirewebsitevi

dedicatedtoplainpackagingmonthspriortotheannouncement.Thewebsitefeaturesvideo

interviewswithretailersfromAustraliaandtheUK,ananimatedcliponwhyplainpackagingwillfail,

andpagespromotingtheviewsthatplainpackagingwontwork,violatestrademarkrightsandwill

increaseillicittrade.Inresponsetothereleaseofdraftlegislation,aspokesmanforPhilipMorris

toldAAPthatplainpackagingwould:

fueltheillicittradeintobaccoproducts.We'llcontinuetoopposeplainpackagingineveryway

possiblebecauseofthoseseriousissuesthatthegovernmenthasn'ttakenintoaccountwhen

pursuingthispolicy.[90]

BritishAmericanTobaccoswebsitealsoincludesapositionstatementonplainpackaging.[91]In

additiontoarguingthatsuchlegislationwouldnotbeeffective,BATclaims:

Genericpackagingwouldmakeithardertopreventsmuggledandcounterfeitproductsenteringa

market,erodinggovernmenttaxrevenueanddisruptingeffortstotackletheillegaltradeintobacco

productsthatplaysasignificantroleinfundinginternationalcrimeandterrorism.

InresponsetotheGovernmentsreleaseoftheexposurebill,aBATAustralasiaspokespersonstated

thatsuchlegislationwillresultinclaimsforcompensationthatwouldbebornebytaxpayers.[92]

Extensive requests under Freedom of Information legislation

InOctober2010theAustralianSenateEstimatesCommitteewasinformedthatanunnamedtobacco

companyhadmadeatleast19requeststhroughFreedomofInformationprovisionsforinformation

aboutGovernmentdeliberationsonplainpackaginggoingbackto1992.[93]

Alliance of Australian Retailers

Inadditiontotheirdirectrepresentationsabouttheproposedlegislation,BritishAmericanTobacco

Australia,PhilipMorrisandImperialTobaccoAustraliaalsocollaboratedtofundamassmedia

countercampaignbytheAllianceofAustralianRetailers,anorganisationestablishedshortlybefore

thecommencementofthe2010electioncampaign.Theaimofthecampaignwastostopthe

introductionofplainpackaging.[94]Advertisementsfeaturingportrayalsofconcernedretailerssayingthatplainpackagingwouldntworkandwoulddamagetheirbusinessappearedin

newspapers,ontelevisionandradio.viiDaysafterthelaunchofthecampaign,severalmajorretailers

withdrewtheirsupportfortheAlliance.RetailerWoolworthsrevokeditsmembershipofthe

AustralasianAssociationofConvenienceStores(AACS)overthecampaignanddemandedthatits

$15,000inannualfeesbereturned.[95]TheAACSwhichincludescompaniesCaltex,Shell,BPand

ColeswithdrewitssupportafterColes(whichchairstheboardoftheAACS)objectedtohavingbeen

misleadaboutthenatureofthecampaign.[95]

viHhttp://www.plainpackaging.com

viiTheadscanbeviewedhere:Hhttp://australianretailers.com.au/latestnews.html

17
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On10September2010,ABCtelevisionprogramLatelinerevealedthecontentsofleakedinternal

documents,emailsandcontractswhichshowedthefullextentoftobaccoindustryinfluenceonthe

AllianceofAustralianRetailerscampaign.[96]OnthedaytheAlliancewasformeditreceivedfunds

fromImperialTobaccoAustralia($1million),BritishAmericanTobaccoAustralia($2.2million)and

PhilipMorris($2.1million).DocumentsalsoshowedthatPhilipMorrisAustraliasoughtfromthe

lobbyingandpublicrelationsfirm,theCivicGroup,adviceandassistanceforacampaigntostopplainpackaginglawsduringthefederalelection.TheVictorianHealthPromotionFoundation

(VicHealth)andthePublicHealthAssociationofAustraliarespondedbycallingontheAustralian

Governmenttolegislateforcompletebansonalltobaccoindustryadvertisingandtoforcetobacco

companiestoreleasefulldetailsoflobbying,politicaldonationsandmarketingplansand

budgets.[97]

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7. Research relevant to major industry arguments againstplain packaging

Healthgroupsarguethattheharmfulnessandaddictivenessoftobaccoproductsissufficientto

warrantrestrictionofallformsofpromotion.Packagingisclearlyaformofpromotionandthereforeshouldnotbeallowed.However,plainpackaginghasbeenvigorouslyopposedbytobacco

companiesoneachoccasionthattheideahasbeenproposed.viii

Industryargumentsagainstplainpackaginghaveincludedfirstlythatthereisalackofevidencethat

itwouldresultinreducedsmoking;secondlythatitwouldbedifficultforretailersresultinginlossof

salestodiscountoutlets;thirdlythatsuchlegislationwouldbreachinternationalagreements

concerningintellectualpropertyandthatforthisreasontheideahasbeenabandonedbyallthe

countriesthathavepreviouslyconsideredit;thatitandfinallythatitwouldfacilitateillicittrade.

Researchrelevanttoeachoftheindustrysmajorclaimsaboutunintendedconsequencesis

describedbelow.

7.1 Wont work

AsindicatedinSection4above,plainpackaginghasnotyetbeenintroducedanywhereintheworld,

soconclusionsaboutitslikelyeffectivenesshavetobebasedonknowledgeabouttheeffectsof

packagingingeneral,andstudiestestingthereactionsofrespondentsexposedtodifferent

packagingoptionsunderexperimentalconditions.

Onthe4thMay2011,BritishAmericanTobaccoreleasedareport[98]preparedforitbyconsulting

firmDeloittedescribedasanindependentassessmentoftheeffectsofregulationofpackagingon

tobaccoconsumption.Thisdetailed98pagereport[99]purportstoassessthedirectimpactofwhat

wastermedpackspaceappropriationonconsumptionoftobaccoproducts,andalsotodescribea

number

of

unintended

consequences

of

such

legislation.

TheDeloittereportarguesthatlegislationmandatinghealthwarningshasnotbeeneffective

becauseithasfailedtoreducetheconsumptionoftobaccoproductsinAustraliaandthereforethat

plainpackaginglegislationisalsounlikelytobeeffective.Itbasesthisassessmentontheresultsof

twoanalyses:

i. aneconometricanalysisofconsumptionpatternsinanumberofcountriesthathave

introducedhealthwarningsand

ii. aneventstudylookingatmonthlylevelconsumptiondatafollowingintroductionof

improvedwarningsinAustralia.

Consumptionisnotanappropriateindicatoroftheeffectivenessofhealthwarningswhichshould

onlybeconceivedasonenecessarybutnotasufficientcontributortowhatpromptsindividualsto

takeuporstopsmoking.Inanycase,amajorerrorintheassumedtimingofintroductionofthe

AustralianwarningsunderminesconfidenceinthevalidityofconclusionsdrawnfromtheDeloitte

modellingrotatinghealthwarningswerefirstintroducedinAustraliain1987not1990.

TuckedawayinSection2.2.1ofAppendixBisadisclosurethatindicatesjusthowselectivethedata

isthatBAThasprovidedDeloitteforitsanalysis:

MonthlybrandlevelconsumptiondataforAustraliahas(sic)beenprovidedby

Neilsen.Sinceactualconsumptionvolumesarenotavailable,actualdutypaid

viiiForacompilationofresponsesbytobaccocompaniestoeachofthevariousgovernmentinquiriessee

Hhttp://www.smokefree.ca/plainpackaging/industryresponse.htm

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shipmentvolumeshavebeenusedforanalysis.Duetodatalimitations,notable

brandswiththemostconsistentdatahavebeenselected.Monthlyvolumeshavebeenconvertedtoaquarterlyseriesforstructuralanalysis.Deloitte.2011,[99]

page71

DeloittesfindingthatsalesofaselectionofBATproducts(theonlyproductsincludedinthe

analysis)didnotdeclinemoresteeplythanusualoverparticularperiodsdoesnotprovethatthe

marketasawholedidnotdeclineoverthosesameperiods.Interestingly,governmentdataonall

dutiedtobaccoproductsdoinfacttellasomewhatdifferentstory,withtotalpercapitaweightof

tobaccoproductssubjecttoexciseandcustomsdutydecliningmorethanwhatwouldbepredicted

bythetrendlinefollowingtheintroductionofthefirstthreesetsofwarningsoncigarettepackaging

inAustraliareferFigure7.

Figure7 Excise and customs duty receipts Australia 1970 to 2005*grams per person aged 16+yrs

Sources:OverseasTrade,ABSCatalogueno7885355,195859to196263,Table33p793196364to19678,Table35,p

1050,196869to19723,Table32p632; 197273to197677,Table22p112.

ExcisedataforAustralianTobaccoProducts,suppliedbyJohnBroweleit,ABSDec1994,andZigmontMackinois,

June

96

and

Sept

96

ExcisedataforAustraliantobaccoproducts,suppliedbyInternationalTradeSection,AustralianBureauof

Statistics,MarchandSep1998.

ImportclearancedataforAustralianTobaccoProducts,1981/2to1993/4,suppliedbyJohnBroweleit,

InternationalTrade,ABSFeb1995,andMichaelAshly,Sept1996

CustomsdataforAustraliantobaccoproducts,suppliedbyInternationalTradeSection,AustralianBureauof

Statistics,SeptemberandSeptember,1998

PopulationdatafromABSAustralianDemographicStatisticsfromCatalogue3101.0

*LastyearforwhichexcisedatahasbeenpublishedseeAIHW2007[100]

Alargebodyofresearchhasdemonstratedthatenhancedconsumerinformationontobacco

packetshavemadewarningsmorenoticeableandhaveincreasedawarenessofthehealthrisksof

20


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smokinginAustralia[101][102][103][104][105][106][107109] [110]Canada,[111,112]andthe

UK.[113]ix

AsoutlinedinSection5above,therearestronggroundsforbelievingthatcurrentpackaging

glamourisessmokingandthatplainpackagingwouldimprovetheeffectivenessofhealthwarnings,

reducemisconceptionsaboutrelativeharmfulnessofvariousbrandsandreducetheoverallappeal

oftobaccoproductsintermsofperceivedattractivenessofthepack,expectationsaboutand

experienceoftasteandperceptionsaboutthekindsofpeoplebelievedtobelikelytouseparticular

brands.Theeffectscouldbeexpectedtobeparticularlystrongamongyoungpeopleestablishing

theiridentityandimageamongtheirpeers.

Seniorstaffoftobaccocompaniesarenotrequiredtobeexpertinorspendtimeontheanalysisof

publicpolicyoutofacademicinterest.Theydohoweverhaveafiduciarydutytocompany

shareholders.Anyonepaidonthebasisofsalesorinpartwithshareparcelswouldhaveapersonal

financialinterestincompanysalesandprofitability.Theintensityofoppositiontoplainpackaging

andimprovedhealthwarningsbytobaccocompaniesandthetimeandmoneycompanieshave

investedineffortstodelaytheirintroduction[115]suggestthattobaccoindustryexecutivesdo

believe

that

such

measures

will

accelerate

reductions

in

sales

and

company

profits.

7.2 Will be difficult for retailers

TheAllianceofAustralianRetailershasstatedthatplainpackagingwouldmakeitmoretime

consumingforretailerstofindcigarettepacketswhencustomerscomeintomakeaquickpurchase.

Withanerosionofconveniencetothepurchaser,theAlliancefearsthatmorecustomerswouldturn

tocheaperdiscountoutlets.

Deloitteacknowledgesthatsmalltomediumretailersbelievethatplainpackagingwillresultina

shiftinbusinesstolargeroutlets.Thisargumentignoresthefactthatsmallretailerswillstillbe

locatedmoreconvenientlytosmokersthanwilllargeretailers.Italsoignoresthefactthatstaffin

supermarketsandtobacconistswillfaceexactlythesamechallengesinidentifyingandselecting

stock.AsDeloittepointsoutinitsreviewofresearchonpossibleunintendedconsequencesofplain

packaginglegislation,commentatorssuchastheUKDepartmentofHealthhavepointedoutthat

stockmanagementcouldbeassistedandtransactiontimesminimisedthroughuseofbrandedbulk

containersandalphabeticalordering.

ThedraftlegislationreleasedbytheGovernment[75]proposedthatthebrandnamebelarge

enoughtobeseenbyretailers.

7.3 Represents an acquisition of intellectual property

Themajorobjectiontoplainpackagingbytobaccocompaniesinternationallyistheideathatit

representsanacquisitionofintellectualpropertyandassuchwouldbeprohibitedundertheterms

ofvariousinternationaltradeagreements,athemecoveredinallthesubmissionsbycompaniesto

governmentinquiries.[116]

OneofthemostvocalopponentsoftheproposedlegislationinAustraliahasbeentheInstituteof

PublicAffairs.TheInstitutehasreceivedwidespreadmediacoverageforitsviewsthatplain

ixInMay2009theInternationalTobaccoControlPolicyEvaluationProjectreleasedacomprehensive

assessmentoftheimpactofhealthwarningsinternationally. TheITCProjectisanongoinginternational study

thatnowcovers19countriesaroundtheworld.

114. FongGT,CummingsKM,BorlandR,HastingsG,HylandA,GiovinoGA,etal.Theconceptual

frameworkoftheInternationalTobaccoControl(ITC)PolicyEvaluationProject.TobaccoControl

2006;15(suppl.3):iii3iii11.Availablefrom:

http://tc.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/abstract/15/suppl_3/iii3

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packaginglegislationisequivalenttoacquiringtheintellectualpropertyoftobaccocompaniesand

thattheGovernmentwouldbeforcedtocompensatetobaccocompaniestothetuneof$3billion

dollarsannually.[117]

The$3bmentionedintheInstitutesreportappearstobeveryroughlycalculatedbasedonthe

amountoftotalturnoverofsalesoftobaccoproductsinAustralialessGovernmenttaxrevenue.It

assumesthattheGovernmentwouldhavetocompensatenotjustforprofitsforgonebutforthe

totalvalueofsales.Itmakesnoattempttonetoffthecostsofproductionanddistributionwhich

wouldofcoursenolongerbeincurredifproductswerenolongersold.Inanycase,theInstitutes

viewsaboutgovernmentliabilitywerequicklydismissed,withoneseniorlawexpertfromMonash

Universitycommentingthatthislineofargumentwas:

soweak,itsnonexistent.ThereisnorighttouseatrademarkgivenbytheWorldTrade

Organizationagreement.Thereisarighttopreventothersusingyourtrademarkbutthat

doesnottranslateintoarighttouseyourowntrademark.[118]

TheInstitutesargumentswerealsocomprehensivelyrebuttedinaseminarorganisedbythe

IntellectualPropertyResearchInstituteofAustralia.[119]Asexplainedattheseminarandexpanded

oninanarticleintheAustralianIntellectualPropertyLawBulletin,governmentsarepermittedtoamendtheirintellectualpropertylawstoprotectpublichealth.Plainpackagingdoesnotequateto

acquiringtheintellectualpropertyoftobaccocompanies.Governmentsdonotintendtousethe

logosandtobaccocompanieswillstillmaintainfullrightstotheirlogosandbrandimagery;theywill

simplynolongerbeabletousethesemarketingtoolsoncigarettepackages.[120]

Inanarticlebyaninvestigativejournalistin2003[121]aspokespersonfortheInstituteofPublic

AffairswasreportedasconfirmingthattheInstitutereceivedfundingfromBritishAmericanTobacco

andPhilipMorris.[122]

Thedraftlegislationproposesthatintheevent(whichtheGovernmentconsidersunlikely)that

preventingtheuseoftrademarksisfoundtobecontrarytoSection51(xxxi)oftheConstitution,

thentrademarks

would

be

allowed

but

would

have

to

conform

to

restrictions

(for

instance

on

size

andplacement)thatwouldbespecifiedinregulations.

7.4 Has been considered and the idea abandoned in other countries

TheideaofplainpackagingwasfirstconceivedinCanadainthelate1980saftertobaccocontrol

groupsconsideredtestimonyinalegalchallengetoCanadianlegislationbanningtobaccoadvertising

duringwhichanImperialTobaccoexecutiveagreedthatsmokersweregenerallyunableto

discriminatebetweenbrandswhenblindtestedandthatpackagingwasvital.[123]

Itsverydifficultforpeopletodiscriminateblindtested.Putitinapackageandputaname

onit,thenithasalotofproductcharacteristics(p1).[123]

ThiscorroboratedanearliercommentmadebyaBritishAmericanTobaccoofficialthatoneofeverytwosmokersisnotabletodistinguishinblind(masked)testsbetweensimilarcigarettesformost

smokersandthedecisivegroupofnew,youngersmokers,theconsumerschoiceisdictatedmoreby

psychological,imagefactorsthanbyrelativelyminordifferencesinsmokingcharacteristics

(p5).[124]

Proposalsforplainpackagingwereputtoandconsideredbygovernmentsonseveraloccasionsover

thefollowingtwodecadesx.Oneachoccasiontheproposalshavebeenvigorouslyopposedwithdire

warningsaboutlegalaction.AmajorreportbyCanadiangroupPhysiciansforaSmokefreeCanada

hasdocumentedextensiveinformationabouteffortsbythetobaccoindustrytopursuethe

xSeeTimelinebyPhysiciansforaSmokefreeCanada,Hhttp://www.smokefree.ca/plain

packaging/history.htmH

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trademarkissueasakeyplankofaglobalstrategytoopposeplainpackaging.[125]Whilethis

strategywassuccessfulinforestallinglegislationinNewZealandin1993andCanadaandAustraliain

1995,th

d

onthattheirmonthsearlier.(p23)[125]

ereportnotes...

WhatthecompaniesdidnottelltheAustralianSenatewasthat2yearspreviouslytheyha

soughtandreceivedadvicethattheyhadnobasisforanylegalchallengeandthatthe

Britishgovernmenthadtoldthemtheydidnothaveacase.NordidtheymentiargumentshadbeensoundlyrefutedbyWIPOonly

Forthefullanalysis,seehttp://www.smokefree.ca/plain

packaging/documents/2009/packagingphoneyipclaimsjune2009a4.pdf

Inthewakeofincreasedscrutinyoftheselegalarguments[125]andfollowingtheAustralian

Governmentsannouncements,severalcountriesarereexaminingproposalsforplainpackaging.

InNovember2011theUKHealthSecretaryAndrewLansleyissuedapolicydocumentsuggesting

thatthegovernmentwilllookatwhethertheplainpackagingoftobaccoproductscouldbean

effectivewaytoreducethenumberofyoungpeopletakingupsmokingandtohelpthosewhoare

tryingtoquitsmoking.[126]On9March2011,theUKgovernmentreleasedatobaccocontrolplan

whichrepeateditsstatementofintentiontoconsiderplainpackaging.HealthyLives,HealthyPeople:

ATobaccoControlPlanforEngland[127]

Wewillconsultonoptionstoreducethepromotionalimpactoftobaccopackaging,

recomm 11:

swith

ssiblealignment.Aninitialreportbackto

recentlyexpressedsupportforplainpackaging.Inresponsetoa

questio

easures,includingattheEuropeanlevel.(unofficialtranslation)Transcript

includingplainpackaging,beforetheendof2011.[127]p22

InitsresponsetothereportoftheMaoriAffairsCommitteewhichsomemonthspreviouslyhad

endedplainpackaging,[128] theNewZealandGovernmentstatedonthe14thMarch20

TheGovernmentismonitoringAustraliasprogressonitsproposaltolegislateforplain

packagingoftobaccoproductsin2012,andwillconsiderthepossibilityofNewZealand

aligningwithAustralia.NewZealandGovernmentofficialshavecommenceddiscussion

respectiveAustraliancounterpartsonthepo

Cabinetisdueby30June2011.[129]p.78

Belgium'sHealthMinisterhasalso

ninparliamenthestated:

Withplainpackaging,onlythebrandnameisdisplayedinastandardformat.Theimpactof

suchlabellingtoreducetheattractiveness[130]andincreasetheimpactofhealthwarning

messages,especiallyforyoungnewsmokers,hasbeenshowninseveralstudies....Icontinue

tosupportsuchm

ofremarks[131]

AndinDecember2010Frenchparliamentarian,YvesBur,introducedabilltoimplementplain

packaging.[132]

es

uld

tobe

7.5 Will reduce price and competition in the tobacco market

TheDeloitteinternationalreport[99]providesausefulreviewofthereportscommissionedonthis

topicbyPhilipMorrisandJapanTobaccoInternational.ThePhilipMorrissponsoredstudybyLECG

consultingconcludedthatplainpackagingwillleadtopricecompetitionandasaresultlowerpric

acrossthewholemarket.[133]Thiswouldoccurduetoreducedproductdifferentiationandthe

entryofunbrandedproducts.TheEuropeEconomicsstudybycontrastpredictedthatpriceswo

fallonlyforpremiumbrands,withgrowingandnichebrandslikelytobehitthehardest.Little

informationisavailableinternationallyaboutwhathappenstoconsumptionoftobaccoproducts

whenpricesfall.Thishasbeenarareoccurrenceoverthepastfourdecades.LECGsestimateofan

increaseofbetween2.6%and16.6%insales(assuminga4.8%to19.2%fallinprices)appearsassumingpricesensitivityofbetween+0.54and+0.86%.Thisissubstantiallyhigherthanthe

23
http://www.smoke-free.ca/plain-packaging/documents/2009/packagingphoneyipclaims-june2009-a4.pdfhttp://www.smoke-free.ca/plain-packaging/documents/2009/packagingphoneyipclaims-june2009-a4.pdfhttp://www.smoke-free.ca/plain-packaging/documents/2009/packagingphoneyipclaims-june2009-a4.pdfhttp://www.smoke-free.ca/plain-packaging/documents/2009/packagingphoneyipclaims-june2009-a4.pdfhttp://www.smoke-free.ca/plain-packaging/documents/2009/packagingphoneyipclaims-june2009-a4.pdf


24/37

acceptedestimatesofpricessensitivityintheeventofpriceincreaseswhichrangebetweenabout

0.3and0.5%[134]andwouldappeartobeanestimatebasedonbrandshiftingratherthanthe

likelyeffectsacrossawholemarket.Thatis,whileitisplausiblethatsalesofaparticularbrandmight

increaseby3%ifitbecomes5%cheaperandifitscompetitorsremainatthesameprice,itdoesnot

followthatsalesofallproductswouldincreaseby5%ifallproductsbecame3%cheaper.Thisis

particularlysoinanenvironmentwhichincreasinglylimitsopportunitiesforsmoking.Reductionspricesarelikelytobemostsevereinpremiumbrandswhicharecommonlysmokedbylessprice

sensitivesmokers.TheEuropeEconomicsstudy[135]concludedthatwhiletheshorttermimpact

waslikelytobelowerprices,inthelongertermpricescou

in

ldincreaseasmarketpowerandlossof

fsetbythe

Governmentfurtherincreasingexciseandcustomsdutiesontobaccoproducts.

tplainpackagingwouldfacilitateillicittradeandincreaseuseof

e

paid);andthatrevenue

at file reveals that no

innovationeffectsbegantodominateDeloitte[99] p42.

Whateverhappens,asDeloitteacknowledges,pricereductionscouldeasilybeof

7.6 Will facilitate illicit trade

Severalcompanieshavearguedtha

illicitproductsamongminors.[91]Betweenthe20thandearlyMay2011theAllianceofAustralianRetailers(AAR)ranA4sized

advertisementsinseveralAustraliannewspaperswarningthatillicittobaccoproductswerebeing

smokedbychildrenasyoungas14yearsold;that15.9%oftobaccoproductsusedinAustraliaar

illicit(thatisproductsonwhichneitherexciseorcustomsdutyhasbeen

forgoneontheseproductswouldamounttoover$1.1bseeFigure8.

Theclaimsabout teenagesmokingarebasedondata from theNationalDrugStrategyHousehold

Survey[136]whichfound in2007that4.5%ofteenagersaged14to19yearsreportedhavingever

triedillicittobaccoproducts.Itshouldbenotedhoweverthatfewerthan1%(+/ 50%)indicatedthat

theyusedithalfthetimeormore.Thefiguresquotedinthereportrelateto1419yearoldsasa

group.Prevalenceofuse for teenagersofeachage (14,15,16and soon)cannotbedetermined

fromexaminationofthereport.Detailedexaminationofthedatafileonwhichthereportwasbased

howevershowsthatonly1.2%of14yearoldsreportedeverhavingtriedunbrandedloosetobacco.

Most importantly, examination of th 14yearolds at all reported currently

ars,

reportedthatitwouldbeeasyorveryeasy

e

lic

smokingunbrandedloosetobacco.

NotonlyistheclaiminthefirstoftheadvertisementsdepictedinFigure8outrightlyfalse,itisalso

disingenuous.Salesofcigarettestoschoolchildrenhavecertainlydeclinedoverthelast20ye

howeveritisnotablethatin2008almost12%ofstudentsaged12to15yearswhoregularly

smoked,reportedthattheyacquiredtheirlastpacketofcigarettesbypurchasingitfromaretailer

suchasasupermarket,milkbar,petrolstationorconveniencestorei.e.oneofthesortsofstores

thattheAARrepresents!Almost15%of14yearolds

forthemtobuycigarettesfromsuchretailers.[137]

TheestimateoftheproportionoftobaccoproductsusedinAustraliathatareillegal(usedinth

secondadvertisementdepictedinFigure8)isbasedonareportpreparedforthethreemajor

tobaccocompaniesbyDeloitte,[138] areportwhichhasbeenheavilycriticisedbyseveralpub

healthspecialistswhoarguethatitissimplynotcrediblethatoneineverysevencigarettesin

Australiacomesoutofanunmarkedplasticbag.Theresponseratesforthesurveyonwhichthe

reportisbasedappearstobeonlyaround25%,substantiallylowerthantheveryhighpercentagesof

peoplewhotypicallyagreetotakepartinsurveyssponsoredbygovernmentorcharitableagencies.

Thetotalestimatedamountoftobaccosmokedappearstobecalculatedbylookingattheamount

purchasedbythosewhoexclusivelysmokeillicittobaccoandapplyingthisfiguretoallusers.And

yetresultsoftheNationalDrugStrategyHouseholdSurveyindicatethatmostpeoplewhohaveever

usedillicittobaccoproductsnolongerusethem,andmanythatdostillusethemonlyusethem

occasionally.WhiletheDeloitteestimatesoftheaveragequantityofillicittobaccousedaresuch

24


25/37

thatall(100%)ofthe15.7%ofsmokerswhopurchasedillicittobaccointhelastyearwereusing

average25illicitcigaretteseachdayfor365daysoftheyear,theGovernmentsNationalDrug

StrategyHouseholdSurveyin2007[136]foundthatonly0.2%ofAustralians

on

ubstantiallylowerthanthe15.9%beingtoutedbyBATandtheAllianceofAustralianRetailers.

xithatequatesto1.2%

ofcurrentsmokersusedillicittobaccoproductshalfthetimeormore.Evenallowingforillicitusers

smokingsomewhatmorethanaverage,thiswouldmakeillicittobaccoabout23%ofthetotal

markets

xiRefertoTable4.2onpage26ofthereportatHhttp://www.aihw.gov.au/publications/index.cfm/title/10674H

25


26/37

Figure 8 Advertisements placed in Melbourne Ageand other Australian newspapers, 20th

April toearly May 2011

26


27/37

ThethirdAARadvertisementshowninFigure8statesthat$1.12boffederaltobaccoexcisetax

revenuewaslostbecauseorganisedcriminalnetworkssmuggledandsoldillegaltobaccoincluding

counterfeitcigarettes.BasedondatafromtheNationalDrugStrategyHouseholdSurveyaboutthe

frequencyofuseamongthosewhostilluseunbrandedtobaccoproducts,therevenueforgone

wouldbemorelike$100m.TheDeloittereportfromwhichthisestimateisdrawnindicatedthat

peoplesmokingchopchopandotherunbrandedtobaccoproductswerenolongerbuyingitfrom

localmarketsashadbeenthecasesomeyearsago,butwerenowpredominantlybuyingitfrom

ordinarytobaccoretailers.Norespondentstothesurveyreportedpurchasingproductfrominformal

dealers;70%ofrespondentsreportedthattheypurchasedillicittobaccoordinaryretailersincluding

thosetheAARrepresentsand,mostfrequently,specialisttobacconists(50%)seeFigure9. Ifuseof

illicittobaccoisaswidespreadasthetobaccoindustryclaims,thenAustralianretailersincluding

thoserepresentedbytheAARmustbepurchasingatleast12%oftheproductstheysellfrom

criminalgangs.

Source: report by Deloitte. commissioned by BATA Ltd, Philip Morris Ltd and ImperialTobacco Australia Ltd, Supply of Illicit Tobacco, 2011, p22

DraftlegislationreleasedbytheAustralianGovernment[75]specifiesthatanticounterfeiting

measureswouldbeallowedonpacksincludingalphanumericcodes,covertmarkingsandforensic

leveldifferentiationofthecontentofthecardboardandothermaterial.

27


28/37

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