PISA OECD Programme for International Student Assessment IRAs 53 rd Annual Convention Atlanta, 6 May...

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8

Literacy skills for tomorrow’s world

Seeing school systems through the prism of international comparisons

OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA)

IRA’s 53rd annual convention, Atlanta, 6 May 2008

Andreas SchleicherHead, Indicators and Analysis Division

OECD Directorate for Education

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8 In the dark……all students, schools and education systems look the same…

But with a little light….

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But with a little light….

…important differences become apparent….

In the dark……all students, schools and education systems look the same…

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8Today

11.. There is nowhere to hide How the global talent pool has changed Why literacy skills matter more today

2.2. Where we are – and where we can be Where countries stand in terms of quality and

equity of literacy outcomes What the best performing countries show

can be achieved

3.3. How we can get there Some policy levers that emerge from

international comparisons .

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There is nowhere to hideHow the global talent pool has changedWhy literacy skills matter more today

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A world of change in baseline qualifications

Approximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years

%

1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 20043. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.

13

1

1

27

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Gre

ece

Ger

man

y

Fin

land

1

Jap

an

Kor

ea

Nor

way

Irel

and

Cze

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Swit

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and

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Den

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Uni

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Kin

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EU

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and

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Sta

tes

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in

New

Zea

land

Port

ugal

Tur

key

Mex

ico

1. Year of ref erence 2004.

High school completion ratesPercentage of graduates to the population at the typical age of

graduation%

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8College-level graduation rates

Percentage of tertiary type A graduates to the population at the typical age of graduation

%

15

2

Decline of the relative position of the US from 1995 to 2005

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8Moving targets

Future supply of high school graduates

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

China EU India US

2003

2010

2015

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Future supply of high school graduates

0

2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

4 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

6 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

10 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

12 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

14 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0

China EU India US

2003

2010

2015

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

China EU India US

2003

2010

2015

Future supply of college graduates

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The quality of skills mattersHow the demand for skills has changed

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8Why literacy skills matter

Reading is the currency in the knowledge society

Just as those with little money have difficulty meeting their basic needs, those with limited literacy are likely to find it more challenging to pursue their goals

Like most currencies, reading literacy has been subject to inflation over the years

Despite the rapid growth in the supply of qualifications, demand grows even faster

Such that the earnings and employment gap continues to grow

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8Why literacy skills matter

Approximately three quarters of adults with the lowest level of reading literacy in IALS were either not working or, if working, in relatively low-paying jobs (in the bottom 40% of wage earners)

Adults in the two lowest reading literacy levels were typically twice as likely to be unemployed as those in the highest three levels

Lower skills place individuals at higher risks of dependency and also influence civic, community and political behaviour

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8How the demand for skills has changed

Economy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)

(Levy and Murnane)

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To analyse, compare, contrast, and evaluate

To think imaginatively

To apply knowledge in real-life situations

To communicate thoughts and ideas effectively

OECD concept of literacyAccessing, managing, integrating

and evaluating written information in order to develop ones knowledge and potential,

and to participate in, and contribute to, society

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(Levy and Murnane)

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PISA concept of literacyAccessing, managing, integrating







Reading literacy

Using, interpreting and reflecting on written material

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(Levy and Murnane)

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Reading literacy






Mathematical literacyEmphasis is on mathematical knowledge put into functional use in a multitude of different

situations in varied, reflective and insight-based ways

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(Levy and Murnane)

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Reading literacy






Mathematical literacyEmphasis is on mathematical knowledge put into functional use in a multitude of different

situations in varied, reflective and insight-based ways





Scientific literacyUsing scientific knowledge, identifying scientific

questions, and drawing evidence-based conclusions to understand and make decisions about the natural

world

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8PISA

A three-yearly global assessment that… …examines the performance of 15-year-olds

in key subject areas as well as a wider range of educational outcomes

• Including students attitudes to learning and their learning behaviour

…

collects contextual data from… …students, parents, schools and systems……in order to identify policy levers

Coverage Representative samples of between 3,500 and

50,000 15-year-old students drawn in each country

Most federal countries also draw regional samples

PISA covers roughly 90% of the world economy .

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Deciding what to assess...

looking back at what students were expected to have learned

…or…

looking ahead to how well they can extrapolate from what they have

learned and apply their knowledge and skills in novel settings.

For PISA, the OECD countries chose the latter.

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1998PISA countries in

20002001200320062009Coverage of world economy 77%81%83%85%86%87%

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8Average performanceof 15-year-olds in scientific literacy– extrapolate and apply (2006)

High science performance

Low science performance

… 18 countries perform below this line

I srael

I talyPortugal Greece

Russian Federation

LuxembourgSlovak Republic,Spain,Iceland Latvia

Croatia

Sweden

DenmarkFrancePoland

Hungary

AustriaBelgiumIreland

Czech Republic SwitzerlandMacao- ChinaGermanyUnited Kingdom

Korea

J apanAustralia

Slovenia

NetherlandsLiechtenstein

New ZealandChinese Taipei

Hong Kong- China

Finland

CanadaEstonia

United States LithuaniaNorway

445

465

485

505

525

545

565

616

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8Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply

Low average performance

Large socio-economic disparities

High average performance



High social equity


High social equity

Strong socio-economic impact on

student performance

Socially equitable distribution of

learning opportunities



I srael

I talyPortugal Greece

Russian Federation

LuxembourgSlovak Republic,Spain,Iceland Latvia

Croatia

Sweden

DenmarkFrancePoland

Hungary


Czech Republic SwitzerlandMacao- ChinaGermanyUnited Kingdom

Korea

J apanAustralia

Slovenia

NetherlandsLiechtenstein


Hong Kong- China

Finland

CanadaEstonia

United States LithuaniaNorway

445

465

485

505

525

545

565

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8Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik






High social equity


High social equity


student performance





I srael

GreecePortugal I talyRussian Federation

LuxembourgSlovak Republic SpainIcelandLatvia

Croatia

Sweden

DenmarkFrancePoland

Hungary


Czech Republic Switzerland Macao- China

Germany United Kingdom

Korea

J apanAustralia

SloveniaNetherlands

Liechtenstein


Hong Kong- China

Finland

CanadaEstonai

United StatesLithuania Norway

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

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8School performance and socio-economic background

GermanyStu

dent

perf

orm

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AdvantagePISA Index of socio-economic background

Disadvantage

Schools proportional to size

Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within

schoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic

backgroundStudent performance and students’ socio-economic

background

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United StatesStu

dent

perf

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ance


Disadvantage


Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within schools

School performance and schools’ socio-economic background

Student performance and students’ socio-economic background

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FinlandStu

dent

perf

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Disadvantage


Student performance and students’ socio-economic background within

schoolsSchool performance and schools’ socio-economic

backgroundStudent performance and students’ socio-economic

background

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8Investments and outcomes

Since 2000, expenditure per primary and secondary student increased across OECD countries by 39% (in real terms) …

…while PISA literacy outcomes generally remained flat…

…but there are notable exceptions…

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Poland raised its reading performance by 28 PISA points, equivalent to ¾ of a school year - What

happened?

OECD (2007), Learning for tomorrow’s world: First results from PISA 2006, Table 6.1a

In 2003, performance variation among

schools had fallen from 51% to 16% of the variation of student

performance

But did this lead to genuine

improvements of school performance?

Between 2000 and 2003 showed the second-largest increase in

reading (17 points) and a further 11 point

increase since 2003

Most of that increase resulted from smaller

proportions at the bottom level (23% in 2000, and

three-quarters in vocational tracks, 17%in

2003)

Did this harm the better performers?

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Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19 associated with reading proficiency at

age 15 (Canada)after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother

tongue, place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group Level 1)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5

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How to get thereSome policy levers that emerge from

international comparisons

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8Some myths

No relationship between size of countries and average performance

No relationship between proportion of immigrants and average performance

Few difference in students’ reported test motivation

Limited impact of national item preferences .

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High ambitions and universal

standards

Access to best practice and quality professional development

Sympathy doesn’t raise standards – aspiration does PISA suggests that students and schools

perform better in a climate characterised by high expectations and the readiness to invest effort, the enjoyment of learning, a strong disciplinary climate, and good teacher-student relations– Among these aspects, students’ perception of

teacher-student relations and classroom disciplinary climate display the strongest relationships

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8Challenge and support

Weak support

Strong support

Lowchallenge

Highchallenge

Strong performance

Systemic improvement

Poor performance

Improvements idiosyncratic

Conflict

Demoralisation

Poor performance

Stagnation

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8School principals’ perceptions of parents’ expectations

Percentage of students in schools where the principal reported that regarding high academic standards

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8The role of books and

engagement with reading Results from PISA show…

Students from advantaged backgrounds…… have a greater chance of coming to school more

engaged in reading and entering into a virtuous circle of increasing reading interest and improved reading performance

… but not all engaged students come from privileged homes…… and those from more modest backgrounds who read

regularly and feel positive about it are better readers than students with home advantages and weaker reading engagement

Schools can make a significant difference to bring students into the virtuous circle– Seeking mutual reinforcement of cognitive skills and

motivation, particularly for boys .

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Access to books at home

Low Performanc

e

HighPerformanc

e

OECD average performance of students who have 10 or fewer books

at home

Performance of students with 11 – 50 books at home



OECD average READING performance of students with more than 250

books (PISA 2000)

441

Greece

Russian Federation

Liechtenstein

Korea

Hong Kong- China

Finland

Netherlands

Canada

Macao- China Switzerland

New Zealand

Belgium

J apan

Australia

Iceland

Czech Republic

Sweden

France

Denmark

I reland

Germany Austria

Slovak Republic

Luxembourg

Poland

Hungary

Norway

Spain

United StatesLatvia

PortugalI taly

440

460

480

500

520

540

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Much of the difference remains after accounting for social background, and…

“Cultural capital” appears more closely related to student performance than family wealth .

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Low Performanc

e

HighPerformanc

e

Public and school libraries

441

Greece

Russian Federation

Liechtenstein

Korea

Hong Kong- China

Finland

Netherlands

Canada


New Zealand

Belgium

J apan

Australia

Iceland

Czech Republic

Sweden

France

Denmark

I reland

Germany Austria

Slovak Republic

Luxembourg

Poland

Hungary

Norway

Spain

United StatesLatvia

PortugalI taly

440

460

480

500

520

540

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OECD average performance of students who never or hardly ever borrow books to read for pleasure

from a public library

A few times per year

About once a month or more (PISA 2000) .

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Reading for enjoyment

Low Performanc

e

HighPerformanc

e

441

Greece

Russian Federation

Liechtenstein

Korea

Hong Kong- China

Finland

Netherlands

Canada


New Zealand

Belgium

J apan

Australia

Iceland

Czech Republic

Sweden

France

Denmark

I reland

Germany Austria

Slovak Republic

Luxembourg

Poland

Hungary

Norway

Spain

United StatesLatvia

PortugalI taly

440

460

480

500

520

540

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OECD average performance of students who never or hardly ever read for

enjoyment

30 minutes or less each day

30 minutes to one hourOne hour or more

And moreover…

Predictive power of reading activities almost equally strong for mathematics and science

performance .

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A profile of reading engagement

Low Performanc

e

HighPerformanc

e

441

Greece

Russian Federation

Liechtenstein

Korea

Hong Kong- China

Finland

Netherlands

Canada


New Zealand

Belgium

J apan

Australia

Iceland

Czech Republic

Sweden

France

Denmark

I reland

Germany Austria

Slovak Republic

Luxembourg

Poland

Hungary

Norway

Spain

United StatesLatvia

PortugalI taly

440

460

480

500

520

540

61626

OECD average performance of least diversified readers (22%)(only magazines frequently read)

Moderately diversified readers (27%)(Typical materials are magazines or

newspapers)

Diversified readers in short texts (28%)(Magazines, newspapers, comics and

moderate readers of fiction and non-fiction)

Diversified readers in long texts (22%)(Magazines, newspapers, demanding texts

and books) .

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8Reading engagement

Having diverse reading material at home is strongly associated with high overall student performane and engagement in reading, which includes positive attitudes towards reading…

…but there is much schools can do to bring students into the virtuous circle of increasing reading interest and student performance

Improvement in literacy performance relies not just on improving student cognitive skills but also on increasing their engagement in reading

Engagement in reading may be an effective policy lever to mediate the impact of social background on performance

The emergence at relatively early ages of, for example, gender differences in reading performance and engagement underline the importance of an early start .

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High ambitions


Accountability and intervention in

inverse proportion to success

Devolved responsibility,

the school as the centre of action

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PISA score in science

School autonomy, standards-based examinations and science performance

School autonomy in selecting teachers for hire

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Strong ambitions


Accountability

Devolvedresponsibility,


Integrated educational

opportunities

From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning

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8Durchschnittliche Schülerleistungen im Bereich Mathematik






High social equity


High social equity


student performance




Low science performanceTurkey

AustraliaJ apan

Finland

CanadaNew Zealand

Korea

Czech Republic United KingdomAustria

Germany

Netherlands

SwitzerlandI relandBelgium

PolandSwedenHungary

IcelandFrance Denmark

United States SpainLuxembourg NorwaySlovak Republic

I talyGreecePortugal

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

580

21222

Early selection and institutional differentiation

High degree of stratification

Low degree of stratification

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High ambitions


Accountabilityand intervention in

inverse proportion to success

Personalizedlearning

Devolved responsibility,


Integrated educational opportunities

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8Why care?

Progress Concerns about skill barriers to economic

growth, productivity growth and rates of technological innovation

– One additional year of education equals to between 3 and 6% of GDP

– Rising college-level qualifications seem generally not to have led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of qualifications (in all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40%)

Fairness Concerns about the role of skills in creating

social inequity in economic outcomes– Both average and distribution of skill matter

to long-term growth Value for money

Concerns about the demand for, and efficiency and effectiveness of, investments in public goods

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8

Thank you !Thank you !

www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org– All national and international publications– The complete micro-level database

email: [email protected]

[email protected]

…and remember:

Without data, you are just another person with an opinion

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Backup slides

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8Effort expended by students in PISA 2003

(Butler and Adams, 2007)

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8Effort expended by students in PISA 2003,

relative to an important school test

(Butler and Adams, 2007)

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8Ranks comparisons: Overall vs

favourites

Rank on favourites higher than overall rank

Rank on favourites lower than overall rank

Korea 3rd overall9th on favourites

Norway 13th overall10th on favourites

For all other countries, the ranks were not

significantly different.GRCHUN

ITACZE

ESP DNK

FRANOR

ISL

BELAUT SWE JPN KOR

AUSNZLCANFIN

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PISA OECD Programme for International Student Assessment IRAs 53 rd Annual Convention Atlanta, 6 May...

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Transcript of PISA OECD Programme for International Student Assessment IRAs 53 rd Annual Convention Atlanta, 6 May...