Pinnacle Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: PL) 2019 Investor Day ... · Forward-looking information...

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A preliminary prospectus and an amended and restated preliminary prospectus containing important information relating to the securities described in this presentation has been filed with the securities regulatory authorities in each of the provinces and territories of Canada. A copy of the amended and restated preliminary prospectus, and any amendment, is required to be delivered with this presentation. The amended and restated preliminary prospectus is still subject to completion. There will not be any sale or any acceptance of an offer to buy the securities until a receipt for the final prospectus has been issued. This presentation does not provide full disclosure of all material facts relating to the securities offered. Investors should read the amended and restated preliminary prospectus and the final prospectus and any amendment for disclosure of those facts, especially risk factors relating to the securities offered, before making an investment decision. Pinnacle Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: PL) 2019 Investor Day: November 19, 2019

Transcript of Pinnacle Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: PL) 2019 Investor Day ... · Forward-looking information...

Page 1: Pinnacle Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: PL) 2019 Investor Day ... · Forward-looking information mayrelate to Pinnacle’sfuture financial outlook and anticipated events or results and

A preliminary prospectus and an amended and restated preliminary prospectus containing important information relating to the securities described in this presentation has been filed with the securities regulatory authorities in eachof the provinces and territories of Canada. A copy of the amended and restated preliminary prospectus, and any amendment, is required to be delivered with this presentation. The amended and restated preliminary prospectus isstill subject to completion. There will not be any sale or any acceptance of an offer to buy the securities until a receipt for the final prospectus has been issued. This presentation does not provide full disclosure of all material factsrelating to the securities offered. Investors should read the amended and restated preliminary prospectus and the final prospectus and any amendment for disclosure of those facts, especially risk factors relating to the securitiesoffered, before making an investment decision.

Pinnacle Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: PL)

2019 Investor Day: November 19, 2019

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Disclaimer

FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

This presentation may contain “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws in Canada. Forward-looking information may relate

to Pinnacle’s future financial outlook and anticipated events or results and may include information regarding its financial position, business strategy, growth

strategies, budgets, operations, financial results, taxes, dividend policy, plans and objectives. Particularly, information regarding the Company’s expectations of

future results, performance, achievements, prospects or opportunities or the markets in which it operates is forward-looking information. In some cases, forward-

looking information can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “is expected”, “an

opportunity exists”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “outlook”, “forecasts”, “projection”, “prospects”, “strategy”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “does not

anticipate”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might”, “will”, “will be

taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of future events or

circumstances contain forward-looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts but instead represent

management’s expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or circumstances. If any of the opinions, estimates or assumptions underlying the

forward-looking information prove incorrect, actual results or future events might vary materially from those expressed in the forward-looking information. The

Company has no obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward-looking information whether as a result of new information, future events or

otherwise, except as required under applicable securities laws in Canada. Actual results and the timing of events may differ materially from those anticipated in

the forward-looking information as a result of various factors, including those described in “Risk Factors” which are described in the Company’s most recent

Annual Information Form (“AIF”) filed on SEDAR.

We caution that the list of risk factors and uncertainties is not exhaustive and other factors could also adversely affect our results. Readers are urged to consider

the risks, uncertainties and assumptions carefully in evaluating the forward-looking information and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such

information. See “Forward-looking Information” and “Risk Factors” in the Company’s AIF filed on SEDAR for a discussion of the uncertainties, risks and

assumptions associated with these statements.

NON-IFRS MEASURES

This presentation makes reference to certain non-IFRS measures. These measures are not recognized measures under IFRS, and do not have a standardized

meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Rather, these measures are provided

as additional information to complement those IFRS measures by providing further understanding of our results of operations from management’s perspective.

Accordingly, these measures should not be considered in isolation nor as a substitute for analysis of our financial information reported under IFRS. We use non-

IFRS measures including “EBITDA”, “Adjusted EBITDA”, “Adjusted EBITDA per Metric Ton”, “Adjusted Gross Margin”, “Adjusted Gross Margin per Metric Ton”,

“Adjusted Gross Margin Percentage” and “Free Cash Flow”. These non-IFRS measures are used to provide investors with supplemental measures of our operating

performance and thus highlight trends in our core business that may not otherwise be apparent when relying solely on IFRS measures. We also believe that

securities analysts, investors and other interested parties frequently use non-IFRS measures in the evaluation of issuers. Our management also uses non-IFRS

measures in order to facilitate operating performance comparisons from period to period, to prepare annual operating budgets and forecasts and to determine

components of management compensation. As required by Canadian securities laws, we reconcile these non-IFRS measures to the most comparable IFRS

measures in our Management Discussion & Analysis for the fiscal third quarter ended September 27, 2019.

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Speakers

Robert McCurdyChief Executive Officer, Pinnacle

Andrea JohnstonChief Financial Officer, Pinnacle

Scott BaxChief Operating Officer, Pinnacle

Yoshinobu KusanoExecutive Advisor, Fuel Procurement Group, Biomass Energy, Renova

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Management Update

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British Columbia Alberta

Rail line

Pellet Plant

Port

Development

Office

WestviewHouston

Burns Lake

Williams Lake

Vancouver

Richmond

Armstrong

Lavington

EntwistleMeadowbank

Prince George

Smithers

Our Company

Nine production facilities and western Canada / Southeast U.S., one under construction in Alberta and a

wholly-owned port terminal in B.C.

$7.1 billion contracted backlog under long-term agreements with large utilities in Europe and Asia

Lowest quartile cost supplier

Canada / US Facility Network

Management team that drives continuous improvements and maintains industry-leading safety

3rd largest industrial pellet producer in three strategic fibre baskets in a rapidly growing global market

Annual capacity of approximately 2.5 million MTPA³

1. The Aliceville, Houston, Lavington, Smithers, and High Level facilities are partially-owned by Pinnacle.

2. Pinnacle does not own shipping terminals at the Vancouver or Mobile ports.3. Assuming full run-rate production from the Smithers, Entwistle, Aliceville and High Level facilities

1

1

12

Alabama

Aliceville

Pellet Plant

PortMobile

Georgia

River (barge)

Mississippi

1

2

High Level1

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2019 Highlights

New customer contract signed with Mitsubishi (up to 120,000 MTPA in 2021), and following Q3 with Mitsui (100,000 MTPA in 2023)

1,303,000 MT sold in YTD 2019 with Revenue up 17.5% compared to same period in 2018

Williams Lake upgrades commenced, Meadowbank upgrades in planning and design phase

New facility construction in High Level, Alberta in partnership with Tolko

Continued fibre sourcing challenges due to B.C. sawmill curtailments

Phase one of Aliceville facility capital improvements complete

Entwistle dryer rebuild complete, burner and dryer restarted

Smithers facility achieves full run-rate capacity.

Improvements in fibre and cash conversion costs expected

$7.1 billion backlog at the end of Q3 2019

170,000 to 200,000 MTPA capacity expected

Combined production increaseof 80,000 MTPA

Commissioning in process, diversification outside of BC

Improved fibre flow, processing and operating efficiency

125,000 MTPA of capacity expected

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• US$10 million capital spending program (US$7 million Pinnacle share) to improve safety, product quality and plant efficiencies

– Pinnacle team making strong progress on integration, asset configuration and process improvements

• First phase of capital program successfully completed in July 2019

– Resulted in improved fibre flow, processing and operating efficiency

• Improvements in operating performance during September were a direct result of the completed capital improvements

• Second phase of capital program to commence in Q2 2020 aimed at driving cost effective increases in production capacity

• Expected positive contribution to 2019 Adjusted EBITDA

Aliceville Production Facility

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• Entwistle Update

– Resumed production in March at decreased capacity using dry fibre

– Working with customers and partners to mitigate impact

– Dryer rebuild complete and burner and dryer restarted

– Concurrently installing a destoner to enable improved fibre flow and quality, while reducing future downtime.

• Restoration Costs

– Capital asset costs for dryer rebuild estimated at ~ $15 million

– Other costs estimated at ~$10 million with $7.6 million incurred YTD, and remainder to be incurred through year-end

• Insurance Proceeds

– All capital and operational costs expected to be recoverable under insurance policies, net of deductibles

– Capital: $8 million recognized as of end of Q3 2019

– $5 million in Q2 2019 positively impacted Q3 cashflow

– Business interruption: $8.5 million recognized as of the end of Q3 2019

Entwistle Production Facility

Q3 2019 Update

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• Expanded relationship with Tolko Industries

– 50% / 50% partnership with Tolko Industries to build an industrial wood pellet production facility in High Level, AB

– High-quality wood fibre sourced primarily from Tolko’s existing sawmill

• Annual run-rate production capacity of 170,000 –200,000 metric tons

• Construction commenced in Q3 2019

– $27 million capital cost (Pinnacle share of $54 million)

– Expect production to commence in Q4 2020

• Initial wood pellet production expected to commence in Q4 2020

High Level Production Facility

50% 50%

New facility contributes to growth of Alberta production platform and further diversifies fibre supply

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Smithers Production Facility

• Commenced initial pellet production in Q4 2018 and achieved commercial production in late Dec. 2018

– Simpler facility design and white fibre supply will facilitate seamless commissioning process

– No storage silo required due to close proximity to Westview shipping terminal

• Reached run rate production of 125,000 MTPA in Q3 2019

• Performing well even with the increased mix of harvest residuals

70% 30%

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Selecting logistically advantageous locations

2

Identified Growth Projects

Project Identification and

Initial Evaluation:

1.0 – 1.5 million MTPA

Conceptual Design

and Engineering

Final Development

and Construction

Stra

tegi

c Fi

t

Fin

anci

al A

ttra

ctiv

en

ess

Cap

acit

y to

Exe

cute

Development Blueprint Development FunnelQualifications Before a Capital Project

is Undertaken

Securing long term sales agreements for our production

output1

Obtaining all permits and authorizations

4

Utilizing proven engineering, design, construction, and commissioning program

5

Securing a sustainable long-term supply of wood fibre

3

As at September 27, 2019, Pinnacle had $280 million available under its bank credit facility. Given our 4.0-5.5x CAPEX to EBITDAinvestment model, we can spend approximately $30 million for each 0.1 turn of our senior debt to EBITDA coverage ratio. Pinnaclereceives credit for run rate EBITDA during the commissioning of new facilities.

1

2

3

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Significant room to grow

Future Growth

BCAB QC

GAAL

MSLATX

OR

WA

SCNC

NL

NB

NS

PEI

FL

Satisfy end market demand✓

Leverage development and operational expertise✓

Enhance geographic, customer and wood fibre supply diversity✓

• We have identified and intend to pursue several new production development opportunities in geographies such as Western Canada, Eastern Canada, U.S. Southeast, and / or the U.S. Pacific Northwest

• Strategic acquisition targets are assessed based on the quality of the asset, price and ability to integrate within our network of production facilities

Proven ability to exploit growth opportunities

Support fibre suppliers✓

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U.S. Southeast Growth Opportunity

• Extensive sawmill development plans from major forestry companies (including Canadian firms) entering Southeast U.S. fibre basket

• Exceptional opportunity pipeline for Pinnacle to partner with forestry companies • Pinnacle’s operating strategy of targeting long-term residual fibre supply agreements is attractive to

new sawmills

Mississippi

Alabama

Louisiana

Arkansas

Pinnacle’s strategic entry into the key U.S. Southeast fibre basket

broadens scope of future growth opportunities

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Q3 2019 Financial Review

($millions, except for %)Q3 2019

(13 weeks)Q3 2018

(13 weeks)

Revenue 92.6 87.6

Production Costs 59.4 57.2

Distribution Costs 14.5 12.4

SG&A Expenses 4.8 5.4

Net profit (loss) (0.7) 1.5

Adjusted Gross Margin 18.7 17.9

Adjusted Gross Margin (excluding IFRS 16 and Entwistle impact) 14.3 17.9

Adjusted Gross Margin % 20.2% 20.5%

Adjusted EBITDA 14.4 14.5

Adjusted EBITDA (excluding IFRS 16 and Entwistle impact) 10.3 14.5

Free cash flow 8.0 5.0

Free Cash Flow (excluding IFRS 16 and Entwistle impact) 4.7 5.0

• 5.6% revenue growth over Q3 2018 due to higher selling price per MT and higher proportion of CIF contracts

• Results impacted by February 2019 Entwistle incident and fibre supply constraints

• Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 5.5 times and available liquidity of $58.2 million

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Fibre Supply Sourcing and Trends

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Types of Fibre: Sawmill Residuals

Sawdust & Shavings

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Types of Fibre: Sawmill Residuals

Sawmill Residual Blow Line at Lavington

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Types of Fibre: Sawmill Residuals

Sawmill Residual Blow Line at Lavington

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Types of Fibre: Harvest Residuals

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Types of Fibre: Harvest Residuals

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Types of Fibre: Bio-logs

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Types of Fibre: Bush Grind

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Summary

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Strategic Priorities for 2020

Continue improvement of fibre processing

and cash conversion costs

Increase production capacity

organically and through acquisition

opportunities

Diversify fibresupply regionally and within B.C.

Focus on operational excellence to enhance safety and forest stewardship

Page 25: Pinnacle Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: PL) 2019 Investor Day ... · Forward-looking information mayrelate to Pinnacle’sfuture financial outlook and anticipated events or results and

A preliminary prospectus and an amended and restated preliminary prospectus containing important information relating to the securities described in this presentation has been filed with the securities regulatory authorities in eachof the provinces and territories of Canada. A copy of the amended and restated preliminary prospectus, and any amendment, is required to be delivered with this presentation. The amended and restated preliminary prospectus isstill subject to completion. There will not be any sale or any acceptance of an offer to buy the securities until a receipt for the final prospectus has been issued. This presentation does not provide full disclosure of all material factsrelating to the securities offered. Investors should read the amended and restated preliminary prospectus and the final prospectus and any amendment for disclosure of those facts, especially risk factors relating to the securitiesoffered, before making an investment decision.

Questions