Pinnacle Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: PL) 2019 Investor Day ... · Forward-looking information...
Transcript of Pinnacle Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: PL) 2019 Investor Day ... · Forward-looking information...
A preliminary prospectus and an amended and restated preliminary prospectus containing important information relating to the securities described in this presentation has been filed with the securities regulatory authorities in eachof the provinces and territories of Canada. A copy of the amended and restated preliminary prospectus, and any amendment, is required to be delivered with this presentation. The amended and restated preliminary prospectus isstill subject to completion. There will not be any sale or any acceptance of an offer to buy the securities until a receipt for the final prospectus has been issued. This presentation does not provide full disclosure of all material factsrelating to the securities offered. Investors should read the amended and restated preliminary prospectus and the final prospectus and any amendment for disclosure of those facts, especially risk factors relating to the securitiesoffered, before making an investment decision.
Pinnacle Renewable Energy Inc. (TSX: PL)
2019 Investor Day: November 19, 2019
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Disclaimer
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
This presentation may contain “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws in Canada. Forward-looking information may relate
to Pinnacle’s future financial outlook and anticipated events or results and may include information regarding its financial position, business strategy, growth
strategies, budgets, operations, financial results, taxes, dividend policy, plans and objectives. Particularly, information regarding the Company’s expectations of
future results, performance, achievements, prospects or opportunities or the markets in which it operates is forward-looking information. In some cases, forward-
looking information can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “is expected”, “an
opportunity exists”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “outlook”, “forecasts”, “projection”, “prospects”, “strategy”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “does not
anticipate”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might”, “will”, “will be
taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any statements that refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of future events or
circumstances contain forward-looking information. Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts but instead represent
management’s expectations, estimates and projections regarding future events or circumstances. If any of the opinions, estimates or assumptions underlying the
forward-looking information prove incorrect, actual results or future events might vary materially from those expressed in the forward-looking information. The
Company has no obligation or undertaking to update or revise any forward-looking information whether as a result of new information, future events or
otherwise, except as required under applicable securities laws in Canada. Actual results and the timing of events may differ materially from those anticipated in
the forward-looking information as a result of various factors, including those described in “Risk Factors” which are described in the Company’s most recent
Annual Information Form (“AIF”) filed on SEDAR.
We caution that the list of risk factors and uncertainties is not exhaustive and other factors could also adversely affect our results. Readers are urged to consider
the risks, uncertainties and assumptions carefully in evaluating the forward-looking information and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such
information. See “Forward-looking Information” and “Risk Factors” in the Company’s AIF filed on SEDAR for a discussion of the uncertainties, risks and
assumptions associated with these statements.
NON-IFRS MEASURES
This presentation makes reference to certain non-IFRS measures. These measures are not recognized measures under IFRS, and do not have a standardized
meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Rather, these measures are provided
as additional information to complement those IFRS measures by providing further understanding of our results of operations from management’s perspective.
Accordingly, these measures should not be considered in isolation nor as a substitute for analysis of our financial information reported under IFRS. We use non-
IFRS measures including “EBITDA”, “Adjusted EBITDA”, “Adjusted EBITDA per Metric Ton”, “Adjusted Gross Margin”, “Adjusted Gross Margin per Metric Ton”,
“Adjusted Gross Margin Percentage” and “Free Cash Flow”. These non-IFRS measures are used to provide investors with supplemental measures of our operating
performance and thus highlight trends in our core business that may not otherwise be apparent when relying solely on IFRS measures. We also believe that
securities analysts, investors and other interested parties frequently use non-IFRS measures in the evaluation of issuers. Our management also uses non-IFRS
measures in order to facilitate operating performance comparisons from period to period, to prepare annual operating budgets and forecasts and to determine
components of management compensation. As required by Canadian securities laws, we reconcile these non-IFRS measures to the most comparable IFRS
measures in our Management Discussion & Analysis for the fiscal third quarter ended September 27, 2019.
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Speakers
Robert McCurdyChief Executive Officer, Pinnacle
Andrea JohnstonChief Financial Officer, Pinnacle
Scott BaxChief Operating Officer, Pinnacle
Yoshinobu KusanoExecutive Advisor, Fuel Procurement Group, Biomass Energy, Renova
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Management Update
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British Columbia Alberta
Rail line
Pellet Plant
Port
Development
Office
WestviewHouston
Burns Lake
Williams Lake
Vancouver
Richmond
Armstrong
Lavington
EntwistleMeadowbank
Prince George
Smithers
Our Company
Nine production facilities and western Canada / Southeast U.S., one under construction in Alberta and a
wholly-owned port terminal in B.C.
$7.1 billion contracted backlog under long-term agreements with large utilities in Europe and Asia
Lowest quartile cost supplier
Canada / US Facility Network
Management team that drives continuous improvements and maintains industry-leading safety
3rd largest industrial pellet producer in three strategic fibre baskets in a rapidly growing global market
Annual capacity of approximately 2.5 million MTPA³
1. The Aliceville, Houston, Lavington, Smithers, and High Level facilities are partially-owned by Pinnacle.
2. Pinnacle does not own shipping terminals at the Vancouver or Mobile ports.3. Assuming full run-rate production from the Smithers, Entwistle, Aliceville and High Level facilities
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Alabama
Aliceville
Pellet Plant
PortMobile
Georgia
River (barge)
Mississippi
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High Level1
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2019 Highlights
New customer contract signed with Mitsubishi (up to 120,000 MTPA in 2021), and following Q3 with Mitsui (100,000 MTPA in 2023)
1,303,000 MT sold in YTD 2019 with Revenue up 17.5% compared to same period in 2018
Williams Lake upgrades commenced, Meadowbank upgrades in planning and design phase
New facility construction in High Level, Alberta in partnership with Tolko
Continued fibre sourcing challenges due to B.C. sawmill curtailments
Phase one of Aliceville facility capital improvements complete
Entwistle dryer rebuild complete, burner and dryer restarted
Smithers facility achieves full run-rate capacity.
Improvements in fibre and cash conversion costs expected
$7.1 billion backlog at the end of Q3 2019
170,000 to 200,000 MTPA capacity expected
Combined production increaseof 80,000 MTPA
Commissioning in process, diversification outside of BC
Improved fibre flow, processing and operating efficiency
125,000 MTPA of capacity expected
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• US$10 million capital spending program (US$7 million Pinnacle share) to improve safety, product quality and plant efficiencies
– Pinnacle team making strong progress on integration, asset configuration and process improvements
• First phase of capital program successfully completed in July 2019
– Resulted in improved fibre flow, processing and operating efficiency
• Improvements in operating performance during September were a direct result of the completed capital improvements
• Second phase of capital program to commence in Q2 2020 aimed at driving cost effective increases in production capacity
• Expected positive contribution to 2019 Adjusted EBITDA
Aliceville Production Facility
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• Entwistle Update
– Resumed production in March at decreased capacity using dry fibre
– Working with customers and partners to mitigate impact
– Dryer rebuild complete and burner and dryer restarted
– Concurrently installing a destoner to enable improved fibre flow and quality, while reducing future downtime.
• Restoration Costs
– Capital asset costs for dryer rebuild estimated at ~ $15 million
– Other costs estimated at ~$10 million with $7.6 million incurred YTD, and remainder to be incurred through year-end
• Insurance Proceeds
– All capital and operational costs expected to be recoverable under insurance policies, net of deductibles
– Capital: $8 million recognized as of end of Q3 2019
– $5 million in Q2 2019 positively impacted Q3 cashflow
– Business interruption: $8.5 million recognized as of the end of Q3 2019
Entwistle Production Facility
Q3 2019 Update
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• Expanded relationship with Tolko Industries
– 50% / 50% partnership with Tolko Industries to build an industrial wood pellet production facility in High Level, AB
– High-quality wood fibre sourced primarily from Tolko’s existing sawmill
• Annual run-rate production capacity of 170,000 –200,000 metric tons
• Construction commenced in Q3 2019
– $27 million capital cost (Pinnacle share of $54 million)
– Expect production to commence in Q4 2020
• Initial wood pellet production expected to commence in Q4 2020
High Level Production Facility
50% 50%
New facility contributes to growth of Alberta production platform and further diversifies fibre supply
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Smithers Production Facility
• Commenced initial pellet production in Q4 2018 and achieved commercial production in late Dec. 2018
– Simpler facility design and white fibre supply will facilitate seamless commissioning process
– No storage silo required due to close proximity to Westview shipping terminal
• Reached run rate production of 125,000 MTPA in Q3 2019
• Performing well even with the increased mix of harvest residuals
70% 30%
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Selecting logistically advantageous locations
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Identified Growth Projects
Project Identification and
Initial Evaluation:
1.0 – 1.5 million MTPA
Conceptual Design
and Engineering
Final Development
and Construction
Stra
tegi
c Fi
t
Fin
anci
al A
ttra
ctiv
en
ess
Cap
acit
y to
Exe
cute
Development Blueprint Development FunnelQualifications Before a Capital Project
is Undertaken
Securing long term sales agreements for our production
output1
Obtaining all permits and authorizations
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Utilizing proven engineering, design, construction, and commissioning program
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Securing a sustainable long-term supply of wood fibre
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As at September 27, 2019, Pinnacle had $280 million available under its bank credit facility. Given our 4.0-5.5x CAPEX to EBITDAinvestment model, we can spend approximately $30 million for each 0.1 turn of our senior debt to EBITDA coverage ratio. Pinnaclereceives credit for run rate EBITDA during the commissioning of new facilities.
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Significant room to grow
Future Growth
BCAB QC
GAAL
MSLATX
OR
WA
SCNC
NL
NB
NS
PEI
FL
Satisfy end market demand✓
Leverage development and operational expertise✓
Enhance geographic, customer and wood fibre supply diversity✓
• We have identified and intend to pursue several new production development opportunities in geographies such as Western Canada, Eastern Canada, U.S. Southeast, and / or the U.S. Pacific Northwest
• Strategic acquisition targets are assessed based on the quality of the asset, price and ability to integrate within our network of production facilities
Proven ability to exploit growth opportunities
Support fibre suppliers✓
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U.S. Southeast Growth Opportunity
• Extensive sawmill development plans from major forestry companies (including Canadian firms) entering Southeast U.S. fibre basket
• Exceptional opportunity pipeline for Pinnacle to partner with forestry companies • Pinnacle’s operating strategy of targeting long-term residual fibre supply agreements is attractive to
new sawmills
Mississippi
Alabama
Louisiana
Arkansas
Pinnacle’s strategic entry into the key U.S. Southeast fibre basket
broadens scope of future growth opportunities
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Q3 2019 Financial Review
($millions, except for %)Q3 2019
(13 weeks)Q3 2018
(13 weeks)
Revenue 92.6 87.6
Production Costs 59.4 57.2
Distribution Costs 14.5 12.4
SG&A Expenses 4.8 5.4
Net profit (loss) (0.7) 1.5
Adjusted Gross Margin 18.7 17.9
Adjusted Gross Margin (excluding IFRS 16 and Entwistle impact) 14.3 17.9
Adjusted Gross Margin % 20.2% 20.5%
Adjusted EBITDA 14.4 14.5
Adjusted EBITDA (excluding IFRS 16 and Entwistle impact) 10.3 14.5
Free cash flow 8.0 5.0
Free Cash Flow (excluding IFRS 16 and Entwistle impact) 4.7 5.0
• 5.6% revenue growth over Q3 2018 due to higher selling price per MT and higher proportion of CIF contracts
• Results impacted by February 2019 Entwistle incident and fibre supply constraints
• Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 5.5 times and available liquidity of $58.2 million
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Fibre Supply Sourcing and Trends
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Types of Fibre: Sawmill Residuals
Sawdust & Shavings
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Types of Fibre: Sawmill Residuals
Sawmill Residual Blow Line at Lavington
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Types of Fibre: Sawmill Residuals
Sawmill Residual Blow Line at Lavington
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Types of Fibre: Harvest Residuals
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Types of Fibre: Harvest Residuals
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Types of Fibre: Bio-logs
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Types of Fibre: Bush Grind
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Summary
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Strategic Priorities for 2020
Continue improvement of fibre processing
and cash conversion costs
Increase production capacity
organically and through acquisition
opportunities
Diversify fibresupply regionally and within B.C.
Focus on operational excellence to enhance safety and forest stewardship
A preliminary prospectus and an amended and restated preliminary prospectus containing important information relating to the securities described in this presentation has been filed with the securities regulatory authorities in eachof the provinces and territories of Canada. A copy of the amended and restated preliminary prospectus, and any amendment, is required to be delivered with this presentation. The amended and restated preliminary prospectus isstill subject to completion. There will not be any sale or any acceptance of an offer to buy the securities until a receipt for the final prospectus has been issued. This presentation does not provide full disclosure of all material factsrelating to the securities offered. Investors should read the amended and restated preliminary prospectus and the final prospectus and any amendment for disclosure of those facts, especially risk factors relating to the securitiesoffered, before making an investment decision.
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