Pieter Cornelis NHTV Breda University - IAAPA - The
Transcript of Pieter Cornelis NHTV Breda University - IAAPA - The
The impact of new attractions
Pieter CornelisNHTV Breda University
Central research question
• What is the impact of new attractions on the performance of (European) theme parks and how may this effect be explained?
1. What is the relative and perceived importance of investing in new attractions?
2. What are the effects of investing in new attractions?
3. How can the effects of investments in new attractions be explained?
Structure
• Intro
• What’s the importance of investing in new attractions? 15 min.
• What are the effects of investing in new attractions? 15 min.
– econometrics 3 min.
• How can the effects of new attractions be explained? 15 min.
• Q&A 15-20 min.
What is the relative and perceived
importance of investing in new
attractions?
Paid admissions + 36%
Operating revenues +62%
Ticket revenue+58%
EBITDA +82%
Spending per cap +21%
Merchandise +104%
Rides and slides (in Europe)
2008
# %
2009
# %
2010
# %
Total
# %
Coaster 27 17.9 40 20.7 35 22.3 102 20.4
Water ride 10 6.6 18 9.3 12 7.6 40 8.0
Family ride 69 45.7 59 30.6 48 30.6 176 35.1
Kids ride 14 9.3 28 14.5 18 11.5 60 12.0
Flat ride 22 14.6 17 8.8 11 7.0 50 10.0
3D/4D-show 4 2.6 15 7.8 18 11.5 37 7.4
Divers 5 3.3 16 8.3 15 9.6 36 7.2
Totaal 151 100 193 100 157 100 501 100
Source: Pieter Cornelis (2010d)
For water rides please refer to
ewrdb.com
Source: AECOM (2010)
Long-term importance Short-term importance
Factor % Factor %
1 New attraction 38.7 1 Weather 35.4
2 Weather 12.5 2 New attraction 28.5
3 Marketing budget 12.2 3 Marketing budget 10.0
4 Other investments in park 7.4 4 Entrance fee 8.1
5 Entrance fee 6.3 5 Special events 7.3
6 Special events 5.9 6 New shows/entertainment 3.8
7 New shows/entertainment 4.8 7 Competition 3.1
8 Other … 4.4 8 Disposable income/leisure time 1.9
9 Opening new hotel 4.0 9 Other investments in park 1.5
10 Competition 1.8 10 Opening new hotel 0.4
11 Disposable income/leisure time 1.5 11 Other … 0.0
12 Investments in Food&Beverage 0.5 12 Investments in Food&Beverage 0.0
Total 100 Total 100
Perceived importance of new attractions
Source: Cornelis (2009)
Source: Poiesz & Van Raay (2002)
Vicious price circleLower
price premium
Decreasing
added value
Less investment
opportunity
Less profit
possibilities
price
innovation distribution
communication
Vicious marketing circles
Predicting the unpredictable?!
Production of meaning
Source: Anton Clavé (2007); Hesmondalgh (2007)
Dynamics of theme park developmentby world region
Water parks versus theme parks…?!
Source: Anton Clavé (2007)
What are the effects of investing
in new attractions?
What is the impact of
investing 1 mio euro in
a new ride…?!
R2 = 0.0217
Beat the average...!
Source: Harrison “Buzz” Price (2002)
The Number of Visitors to
(European )Theme ParksNew Attraction
Uncontrollable
•Income
•Relative prices
•Cost of travelling
•Vacations
•National Holidays
•Weekend days
•Temperature
•Precipitation
•Etc.
•Price Policy
Controllable
•Marketing expenditures
•Opening days
•Opening hours/day
•Special events
•Hotel accommodation
•Number of shows
•Number of F&B outlets
•Etc.
•Number of new attractions
•Development period
•Year of introduction
•Characteristic of new attraction
•Storytelling, theming, IP
•Kind of ride
•Initial investment
•Hard characteristics (G-force etc.)
Direct effect
Moderating effect
Backx, R. and Cornelis, P. (2006).
Force of attraction. Tilburg University.
4 year = 40 cents
5 year = 50 cents
6 year = 60 cents
7 year = 70 cents
8 year = 80 cents
9 year = …
4 year = 40 cents
5 year = 50 cents
6 year = 60 cents
7 year = 70 cents
8 year = 80 cents
9 year = …
Y = 0,1X
Y = 0,05 + 0,1X
Y = 0,05 + 0,1X1 + 0,03X2
Y = 0,05 + 0,1X1 + 0,03X2 + 0,01X3
Difference Net
Number of Visitors
Summation of all
variables in model
Short term effect Long term effect
Multipliers
Elasticities
On rainy day 20% less visitors
10% higher temperature means 3% more attendance
Small amusement park in Holland
Medium amusement & water park in Denmark
So please keep in mind….
• New attraction is just one X (variable) in the model!
• What are the other variables that effect the number of
visitors in your situation?!
Impact of new attractions
• 10 European parks participated
– Number of visitors between 0.2 – 4.0 mio
– Theme parks/ amusement parks
– Two parks have water park
– One park in water area
– Resort /day trip
– North/South Europe
• Data on daily/weekly basis
– 10-25 years history
Cornelis (2010)
New attraction + 10%
Rule of thumb?!
Cornelis (2010a)
First year 65%
Second year 35%
Impact of investment (first year)
Frequency of investment Major
investment*
Major and minor
investment **
Every year 4.2% 4.6%
Every two years 6.7% 7.2%
Every three years 10.0% 11.9%
Every four years 6.2% 6.5%
Every five years 5.4% 5.4%
Less than every five years 4.3% 3.0%
7.5% 8.3%
* ANOVA (F = 2.425; Sig. = 0.049)
** ANOVA (F = 2.645; Sig. = 0.043)
Source: Cornelis (2009)
Warning
• Differences between areas
• Differences between parks
• Differences within parks
– Dreamflight + 425.000
– PandaVision + 285.000
My first steps in econometrics
The first steps…
• What are the (most) important variables in
your situation?!
• Collect data in Xcell/SPSS
• Get connected to the data set
• Compute dependent variable
• Compute all independent variables
• Do the regression analysis
Important variables
European Pleasure Garden Amusement Park
Theme park Cinema/ movie
Collect data in Xcell/SPSS
Get connected to the data set
Three minute explanation how to do
an error correction model (slide 47-60)
Source: Cornelis (2010a)
Dependent variable
-Delta
-LN
Compute dependent variable
Dependent variable
-Delta
-LN
Independent variables
-Delta (short term)
-LN
Independent variables
-T-1 (long term)
-LN
Compute all independent variables
Use (step)dummies for multipliers
Convert all prices to real prices
Independent variables
-Delta
-LN
Independent variables
-T-1
-LN
Standard OLS regression
How can the effects of
investments in new attractions
be explained?
Attraction
response
Economic
response
Brand
response
Park
response
Before Long termShort termDirect
Attraction/ area
Individual response
Aggregated response
Attraction Response Matrix
+ 285.000
+ 425.000
Source: Cornelis (2010b)
Some interesting results
• Importance branding
– Brand essence, brand assets
• Importance theming
– Decoration, macro theming, micro theming
Brand essence and brand assets
Brand Assets Efteling*
• Fairy tales
• Enchantment
• Fantasy
• Mothering and caring
• Bonding
• Transformation
* Cornelis, P. (2006). Theme parks and branding. Presentation Tile Conference , Maastricht (Netherlands)
** Wiering, C. (2008). De Efteling: pretpark en TV-producent. Tijdschrift voor marketing, april 2008, 40-42.
Natural surroundingFairy-tale forest
PandaVision3d/4d show
Dreamflightdarkride
Volk van laaf
Python roller coaster
Holle Bolle Gijs
Fairytale forest
PandaVision
Steamtrain
,878
-,805
,800
,901,867
,808
Component
1 6
Principal component analysis with varimax rotation
Volk van laaf
Python roller coaster
Holle Bolle Gijs
Fairytale forest
PandaVision
Steamtrain
,878
-,805
,800
,901,867
,808
Component
1 6
Principal component analysis with varimax rotation
Three layers of a brand (Kapferer, 1996)
tone code style
brand
kernel
products arguments segments
Brand essence
Brand style
Brand themes
Brand essence concept
Physical
brand identity
Brand Assets Efteling*
Dreamflight PandaVision
• Fairy tales
• Enchantment
• Fantasy
• Mothering and caring /
• Bonding /
• Transformation
* Cornelis, P. (2006). Theme parks and branding.
Presentation Tile Conference
** Wiering, C. (2008). De Efteling: pretpark en TV-
producent. Tijdschrift voor marketing, april 2008, 40-42.
Source: Cornelis (2010c)
Macro and micro theming
Kind of park Size of park
Theming component Amusement park Theme park Other parks Top 10 parks
Name & Signage 85.1 87.6 83.6 89.8**
Landscaping 44.2* 38.2 40.1 41.2
Entrance & external architecture 44.6 52.8** 40.1 59.4***
Queue & internal architecture 19.2 26.8** 15.3 32.6***
Ride / transport system 84.4 85.4 85.3 84.6
Staff members 0.7 27.3*** 6.6 26.8***
Live entertainment 0.0 1.8** 0.0 2.2***
Sound / music 20.3 31.6*** 16.1 38.5***
Ambient conditions 12.3 16.2* 6.6 23.1***
Food & Beverage/ merchandise
locations
5.8 6.6 0.9 12.0***
Table 2 Percentage applied theming component according to kind and size of park * = p<0.10 (two-sided test); ** = p<0.05 (two-sided test); *** = p<0.01 (two-sided test)
Tangible theming-10 components
Intangible theming- Storytelling
- Secondary layer of meaning
Source: Cornelis (2010d)
Kind of park Size of park
Theming component Amusement park Theme park Other parks Top 10 parks
Name & Signage 85.1 87.6 83.6 89.8**
Landscaping 44.2* 38.2 40.1 41.2
Entrance & external architecture 44.6 52.8** 40.1 59.4***
Queue & internal architecture 19.2 26.8** 15.3 32.6***
Ride / transport system 84.4 85.4 85.3 84.6
Staff members 0.7 27.3*** 6.6 26.8***
Live entertainment 0.0 1.8** 0.0 2.2***
Sound / music 20.3 31.6*** 16.1 38.5***
Ambient conditions 12.3 16.2* 6.6 23.1***
Food & Beverage/ merchandise
locations
5.8 6.6 0.9 12.0***
Table 2 Percentage applied theming component according to kind and size of park * = p<0.10 (two-sided test); ** = p<0.05 (two-sided test); *** = p<0.01 (two-sided test)
0 points no theming
1-3 decoration
4-10 macro theming
4-10 + eye for detail micro theming
Source: Cornelis (2010d)
Kind of park Size of park
Theming component Amusement park Theme park Other parks Top 10 parks
Name & Signage 85.1 87.6 83.6 89.8**
Landscaping 44.2* 38.2 40.1 41.2
Entrance & external architecture 44.6 52.8** 40.1 59.4***
Queue & internal architecture 19.2 26.8** 15.3 32.6***
Ride / transport system 84.4 85.4 85.3 84.6
Staff members 0.7 27.3*** 6.6 26.8***
Live entertainment 0.0 1.8** 0.0 2.2***
Sound / music 20.3 31.6*** 16.1 38.5***
Ambient conditions 12.3 16.2* 6.6 23.1***
Food & Beverage/ merchandise
locations
5.8 6.6 0.9 12.0***
Table 2 Percentage applied theming component according to kind and size of park * = p<0.10 (two-sided test); ** = p<0.05 (two-sided test); *** = p<0.01 (two-sided test)
Theming top20 parks Europe 2010
Source: Cornelis (2010d)
Kind of park Size of park
Theming category # attr. Mean
Year 1
Mean
Year 2
AP
Year 1
TP
Year 1
Small
Year 1
Large
Year 1
Micro theming 5 15.0% 10.2% -- 15.0% 18.5% 12.7%
Macro theming 13 9.6% 5.9% 14.5% 7.4% 10.2% 9.3%
Decoratie 14 9.2% 3.5% 12.6% 4.7% 9.4% 9.0%
No theming 4 7.5% 3.1% 7.5% -- 9.0% 7.0%
36 10.0% 5.3% 11.8% 8.5% 10.9% 9.3%
Impact new attraction
Source: Cornelis (2010d)
Motivation
Capacity
Ability
Three conditions for effective theming processing
Wrap up
• What’s the importance?
– Many new rides & slides
– High investments
• What are the effects?
– Contextual
– Include right variables
• How to explain?
– Branding
– Theming Predicting the unpredictable…?!