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Democratising Prosperity:Democratising Prosperity:Global Perspectives onGlobal Perspectives onHousing AffordabilityHousing Affordability
Presentation to thePresentation to theUrban Consolidation SeminarUrban Consolidation Seminar
AdelaideAdelaideBy Wendell CoxBy Wendell Cox
29 July 200529 July 2005
The GreatGreek Dream
Athens
A BROADERA BROADERISSUEISSUE
The issue is notThe issue is not……
Land useLand use
CitiesCities
The issue isThe issue is……
Quality of LifeQuality of Life
Social EquitySocial Equity
Future of theFuture of theNationNation
-20%0%
20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
GDP perCapita(AUS)
Median House Price
Inflation Adjusted
Housing Affordability Crisis in AustraliaEXAMPLE OF ADELAIDE
The American DreamSt. Louis
23 July 2005
Housing Affordability in the USATHE RULE, NOT THE EXCEPTION
Swedish DreamStockholm
Democratizing Prosperity
Japanese DreamSapporo
The Role of Home Ownership
Preserving the Dream
Portuguese DreamPorto
UNDERSTANDING “URBAN SPRAWL”UNDERSTANDING “URBAN SPRAWL”
PUBLIC TRANSPORT: HOPELESS RHETORICPUBLIC TRANSPORT: HOPELESS RHETORIC
BACKGROUND: DEMOCRATISING PROSPERITYBACKGROUND: DEMOCRATISING PROSPERITY
HOME OWNERSHIP AND PROSPERITYHOME OWNERSHIP AND PROSPERITY
PRESERVING THE GREAT AUSTRALIAN DREAM PRESERVING THE GREAT AUSTRALIAN DREAM
OUTLINEOUTLINE
Not enough people going to the same
place at the same time
Don Valley Parkway& Commuter Rail
Toronto
Public Transport: Hopeless RhetoricPublic Transport: Hopeless Rhetoric
Understanding “Urban Sprawl”
NicolaiCeaucescuFather of
Smart Growth
Social HousingBucharest
Spanish DreamBarcelona
Threatening the Dream
THREATENING THE GREAT AUSTRALIAN DREAMTHREATENING THE GREAT AUSTRALIAN DREAM
The Anti-Sprawl TheologyCONDEMNING WHAT THEY DON’T UNDERSTAND
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NOT A BRIEF NOT A BRIEF FOR SPRAWLFOR SPRAWL
LONE MOUNTAINLONE MOUNTAINCOMPACTCOMPACT
“ … absent a “ … absent a material threatmaterial threatto otherto otherindividuals orindividuals orthe community, the community, people shouldpeople shouldbe allowedbe allowedto live andto live andwork wherework whereand how and how they like.”they like.”
The GreatGerman Dream
Leipzig
Understanding Urban Sprawl
Sprawling Paris 1954-1999 Paris: Avenue de l’opéra
Paris to Tourists & Urban Planners
Tourist Paris is Not ParisDIFFERENCE BETWEEN AUSTRALIA & EUROPE: HISTORY
Population82%
OutsideCity of Paris
Employment67%
OutsideCity of Paris
The GreatFrench Dream
Paris
Paris Missed by Tourists & Planners
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Tourist (&Planner’s)
Map of Paris
Paris AtlasWhere People Live
and Work
MODERN MODERN ““SPRAWLSPRAWL”” = AUTO ORIENTED= AUTO ORIENTEDDEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT
Merriam Webster: Merriam Webster: ““the spreading of urban the spreading of urban developments on undeveloped land near a developments on undeveloped land near a citycity””
Sprawl is Sprawl is ““suburbanisation.suburbanisation.””
Sprawl is Sprawl is ““urban growthurban growth”” –– nearly all urban nearly all urban growth in the highgrowth in the high--income world has been income world has been suburban in recent decades.suburban in recent decades.
Sprawl = Sprawl = Automobile oriented development Automobile oriented development (especially in Australia, the US, Canada, (especially in Australia, the US, Canada, Western Europe and Japan).Western Europe and Japan).
Milan
Toronto
Tokyo
Portland
History of Urban Growth Is the History of Sprawl
The GreatAustralian Dream
Melbourne 050
100150200250300350400450500
1981 2002
Hectares(x1,000,000
Australia: No Shortage of LandAGRICULTURE & FARM LAND: 1981-2002
Reduction=Land Area of
Victoria,Tasmania +South Island
(NZ)
Urbanisation2001 (<0.3%)
Human Footprint
Reduction1981-2002
The Declining Human FootprintMIRRORS TREND IN CANADA & UNITED STATES
Agriculture& Urban
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Los Angeles
Toronto
Sydney
Auckland
Melbourne
Adelaide
Edmonton
Brisbane
PerthAtlanta
Urban Area DensitiesAUSTRALIAN & NEW WORLD SIMILARITIES
UrbanPopulation
PerSquare
Kilometer
SURPRISESSydney More Sprawling than Los Angeles
Los Angeles Least Sprawling in New World
4
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Paris
New York
London
Population perSquare Kilometer
Urban Areas: Historical Densities
Los Angeles
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000
Pre-Auto Japan W. Europe Australia Canada U.S.
Universality of Auto-Based SprawlURBAN DENSITIES COMPARED TO PRE-AUTO ERA
UrbanPopulation
PerSquare
Kilometer
1900 Now
The GreatRomanianNightmareBucharest
Ceaucescu: Understood Curbing SprawlFATHER OF URBAN CONSOLIDATION
Toronto Area Green Belt PlanMUCH PAIN, LITTLE GAIN
2000LandArea
Additional2031
“Smart Growth”
Additional2031
“Businessas Usual”
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Australia WesternEurope
Canada UnitedStates
Asia
The Automobile is Here to StayNO ONE PROPOSES RETURN TO PRE-AUTO ERA
Share ofMotorized
TravelUrban Areas
Over3,000,000
•• No serious proposals.No serious proposals.
•• Would require dismantling more than Would require dismantling more than 85% of urban area & resettlement.85% of urban area & resettlement.
•• Auto oriented urban area is here to Auto oriented urban area is here to stay.stay.
•• Densification worsens the quality of Densification worsens the quality of life.life.
Restore Public Transport City?REJECT AUTO BASED URBAN AREA?
5
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500
Under 750 750-1,999 2,000-3,999 4,000-7,999 8,000 &Over
Suburbanisation Dilutes CongestionTRAFFIC INTENSITY IN WORLD URBAN AREAS
Vehicle Hours/Square Kilometer
By PopulationDensity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Under 750 750-1,999 2,000-3,999 4,000-7,999 8,000 & Over
Suburbanisation Speeds Traffic UpTRAFFIC SPEEDS IN WORLD URBAN AREAS
1990:KM/H by
PopulationDensity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dallas-FortWorth
Houston LosAngeles
Atlanta Sydney Paris Tokyo
Suburbanisation: Shorter Work Trips INTERNATIONAL EXAMPLES
0
5
10
15
20
25
More Air Pollution at Lower Speeds
CO
VOCNOx
Based UponIndex of 1.00 atLowest Point forEach Pollutant
ByMiles per KM
NOxCONMHC
Job Location17.9%
Other Location17.9%
Neighborhood25.9%
House20.5%
Other Reasons17.7%
Reason forNeighborhood Choice
US Census Survey
Hong Kong:Average Work Trip
7.7 KM
“Jobs“Jobs--Housing Balance” MythHousing Balance” MythTHE RECORDTHE RECORD
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Urban Villages: Insignificant & Futile”JOBS-HOUSING BALANCE:” THE RECORD
Example:London Area New Towns
WelwynAverage Work Trip DistanceWelwyn Residents
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Core (1939) Ring 1: 1959 Ring 2: 1979 Ring 3: Later
>700 USA MunicipalitiesFees/Capita: 2000
Exaggerating Suburban CostsUS SUBURBS LESS EXPENSIVE THAN CORES
Sewer
Water
Density3.020
Density1,880
Density1,090
Density800
•• How did we manage to afford the last How did we manage to afford the last 60 years?60 years?
•• Bankrupt suburbs predictions: 1960sBankrupt suburbs predictions: 1960s
•• Studies: Theoretical, not real data.Studies: Theoretical, not real data.
•• $225 billion US cost $225 billion US cost claimclaim (to 2025)(to 2025)$30 per capita annually$30 per capita annually
Suburban Cost ResearchU.S.A. “CANNOT AFFORD” SUBURBANIZATION?
Suburban Cost Research“ILL INFORMED & DISINGENUOUS”
“…“… if the urban policies if the urban policies …… were not so were not so ill informed and presented in such a ill informed and presented in such a disingenuous way, there would not be disingenuous way, there would not be a need for this contribution to the debate a need for this contribution to the debate on Australiaon Australia’’s citiess cities””
-- Patrick Troy (Patrick Troy (The Perils of Urban ConsolidationThe Perils of Urban Consolidation).).
NOT SINCENOT SINCECOPERNICUSCOPERNICUS
… has the… has theconventionalconventionalwisdom wisdom been so been so wrong.wrong.
no imperativeno imperativehas beenhas beendemonstrated.demonstrated.
•• Strong PostStrong Post--War population growthWar population growth
•• People moving from rural areas to urban areasPeople moving from rural areas to urban areas
•• Housing growth well above population growthHousing growth well above population growthAverage household size down 1/3Average household size down 1/3
•• Larger, more efficient commercial structuresLarger, more efficient commercial structures
•• Employment growth well above population growthEmployment growth well above population growthContributing factor: More women in the workforceContributing factor: More women in the workforce
•• Affluence Affluence
Factors Driving SuburbanisationIT IS MORE THAN POPULATION GROWTH
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050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000
PortlandUrban Growth
Boundary: Acres
2040Plan
Actual2004
Trend2040
1997
Other Smart Growth “Climbdowns”MarylandNew JerseyMinneapolis-St. PaulSuburban Washington
PortlandVote
AgainstDensity
“Smart Growth” On the RetreatNEWS SLOW TO REACH AUSTRALIA?
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Before Rail: 1989 Latest Data: 2003
Not All You Hear is TrueLOS ANGELES TRAVEL BEFORE & AFTER RAIL
1989-2003OPENED
1 Metro Line3 Light Rail lines6 Suburban Lines
800 KMA$13 Billion
Auto
PublicTransport
Auto
Public Transport
Not enough people going to the same
place at the same time
Don Valley Parkway& Commuter Rail
Toronto
Public Transport: Hopeless Rhetoric
CBD13%
Outside87%
Public Transport10%
Autos90%
Public Transport Work Trip ShareIMPORTANT TO CBD, A SMALL PART OF THE MARKET
Sydney Area Employment
CBD: WorkTrip Share
Elsewhere: WorkTrip Share
Public Transport70%
AutoCompetitivePublic
Transport
Auto Competitive Public TransportONLY TO DOWNTOWN
Skeletal Auto Competitive TransitFOR PORTLAND
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Urban Density & Transit Competitiveness HIGH INCOME WORLD URBAN AREAS OVER 3,000,000
PUBLICTRANSPORTCOMPATIBLE
DENSITY
TOO DENSE FOR CARS
NOT DENSEENOUGH
FOR PUBLICTRANSPORT
CARCOMPATIBLE
DENSITY
Population/Square KM
Pop
ulat
ion
(Mill
ions
)
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Melbourne Boston Brussels Zurich Portland
Misleading or “Doubtful” InformationUNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORT
MELBOURNE 2030 PLANReduction of
Auto Market Share inPercentage Points Goal is many times
previous record
2020Goal Since
1980
AntiAnti--Sprawl Sprawl Policies: Policies: ProspectsProspects
More intense More intense traffic congestiontraffic congestionMore intense air More intense air pollutionpollution
But worse:But worse:Lower home Lower home ownership, ownership, leading to a lower leading to a lower standard of livingstandard of living
The GreatSwedish Dream
Stockholm
Background: Democratising Prosperity
Luxury CondosNear
Rocinda FavelaRio de Janeiro
There are Rich Households
in all Societies
Rocinda FavelaRio de Janeiro
What DistinguishesSocieties is the
Extent of PovertyOverwhelming Reality
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Affluent Economies Have Achieved aDemocratisation of Prosperity
$0$5,000
$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
United States
Japan
WesternEurope
Australia
US Poverty Threshold
History of the World is theHistory of Poverty
GDP-PPPPer Capita
1990$A(OECD)
$0$5,000
$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
United States
Japan
Argentina
Australia
US Poverty Threshold
Economic Progress is Not AutomaticThe Case of Argentina
GDP-PPPPer Capita
1990$A(OECD)
WesternEurope
The GreatJapanese Dream
Sapporo
Home Ownership and Prosperity
100%
74% 72%78% 80% 80%
50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%
100%
Australia UK USA France Sweden Japan
Purchasing Power Parity Discontinuous
Axis
GDP/Capita: 1990
100%
76% 75% 73%78%
73%
50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%
100%
Australia UK USA France Sweden Japan
Purchasing Power Parity Discontinuous
Axis
GDP/Capita: 2003
10
STRENGTHSTRENGTHOF THEOF THELIBERALLIBERALECONOMIESECONOMIES
“Competitive“Competitiveintensity”intensity”
Examples:Examples:Less restrictiveLess restrictive
land regulation land regulation
RetailingRetailing
$75
$100
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Germany Australia
Competitive IntensityHOME BUILDING: AUSTRALIA & EUROPE (1990S)
Competitive IntensityECONOMIC FREEDOM AND AFFLUENCE
Central Athens,2005
How Urban ResidentsUsed to Live
(And Some Still Do)
Lisbon, Portugal Copenhagen, Denmark
Stockholm, Sweden Antwerp, Belgium
How Most Urban Residents Live Today
Home 43%
Household 17%
Savings 12%Securities 8%
Other 21%
Houses: A Principal Share of WealthABS: 1996
11
0%50%
100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%500%
1939 1971 2001
Autos perHousehold
Real Per CapitaGDP/Household
Democratisation of Prosperity:Associated with Personal Mobility
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1800-1850 1850-1900 1900-1950 1950-2000
United StatesGrowth
x1,000,000
Democratisation of Prosperity isAssociated with Urban Growth
Urban
Rural
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Canada UnitedStates
WesternEurope
Japan Australasia
Canada from 1951, US from 1950
Others from 1965
Democratization of Prosperity isAssociated with Suburbanization
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1947 2001
Renters
Democratisation of Prosperity:Associated with Rising Home Ownership
Home Owners
Spanish DreamBarcelona
Threatening the Dream BASICBASICECONOMICECONOMICPRINCIPLEPRINCIPLE
SCARCITY &SCARCITY &RATIONING TEND TORATIONING TEND TORAISE PRICESRAISE PRICES
This means:This means:
Rationing land forRationing land forhousing housing development development tends to tends to raise house raise house prices. prices.
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BASICBASICECONOMICECONOMICPRINCIPLEPRINCIPLE
HIGHER PRICESHIGHER PRICESTEND TO MEANTEND TO MEANFEWER BUYERSFEWER BUYERS
This means:This means:
Higher housingHigher housingprices tend toprices tend tolead to lowerlead to lowerrates of homerates of homeownership.ownership.
Raises housing prices
AustraliaPortlandDenver LondonToronto
Urban Growth Boundaries & Green Belts
Raises housing prices
AustraliaCalifornia
Excessive Development Impact Fees
Raises housing prices
Northern Virginia, Boston
Down-zoning
IMPACTSEXAMPLESSTRATEGIES
Smart Growth:Strategies & Housing Impacts
ANDRES DUANYANDRES DUANY
There is NO There is NO question that question that urban growth boundariesurban growth boundariesand that elaborate and that elaborate environmental public environmental public processes processes increase the cost of increase the cost of housing by creating housing by creating scarcity. (And donscarcity. (And don’’t t tell me otherwise, tell me otherwise, because I am not stupid, because I am not stupid, nor am I inexperienced, nor am I inexperienced, nor do I have nor do I have underdeveloped powers underdeveloped powers of observation).of observation).
Italian DreamMilan
“Sun Rises
in the West”
studies……our evidenceour evidencesuggests that suggests that
zoning zoning and other and other land use land use controls controls play the play the dominant dominant role in role in making making housing housing expensive.expensive.
HARVARDHARVARDSTATE OF THESTATE OF THENATION’S NATION’S HOUSINGHOUSING20052005
“Development “Development constraints constraints drive up drive up land and land and construction construction costs as well costs as well as prevent new as prevent new housing from housing from keeping pace keeping pace with rising with rising demand.”demand.”
WACHOVIA BANKWACHOVIA BANK
““We have identified We have identified three major factors three major factors which have worked which have worked to restrain supply to restrain supply over theover thepast decade, past decade, all of which remain all of which remain very much alive very much alive and well todayand well today. . The first is the The first is the spread of the spread of the Smart Growth, Smart Growth, Slow Growth and Slow Growth and No Growth movements No Growth movements throughout the country.throughout the country.””
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U.S. DEPARTMENTU.S. DEPARTMENTOF HOUSING &OF HOUSING &URBAN URBAN DEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENTREPORTREPORT
“A number of “A number of Communities … Communities … have used smart have used smart growth rhetoric to growth rhetoric to justify restrictingjustify restrictinggrowth and limiting growth and limiting developable land developable land supply, which lead to supply, which lead to housing cost housing cost increases.”increases.”
LAND USELAND USEREGULATIONREGULATIONRETARDSRETARDSECONOMICECONOMICGROWTHGROWTH
“metropolitan areas “metropolitan areas with stringent with stringent development development regulations regulations generate less generate less employment employment growth growth than expected than expected given their given their Industrial bases”Industrial bases”
AN ALARM ONAN ALARM ONPLANNING IN THEPLANNING IN THEUNITED KINGDOMUNITED KINGDOM
“The nightmare“The nightmarescenario for the scenario for the British economy British economy could be that a could be that a ‘tipping point’ was‘tipping point’ wasreached where thereached where thefinancial servicesfinancial servicesindustry of theindustry of thecity decamps tocity decamps tocheaper citiescheaper citieselsewhere in elsewhere in Europe.”Europe.”
House Price/Income MultipleA SIMPLIFIED MEASURE
•• Median house price divided by median Median house price divided by median household income.household income.
•• Permits ready comparison, national and Permits ready comparison, national and internationalinternational
•• Simplified and understandableSimplified and understandable
•• Historical value: Approximately 3.0Historical value: Approximately 3.0
US: House/Income Multiple: 1970-2000GROWTH CONTROLS: LARGEST PRICE ESCALATION
-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Aver
age
Mis
siss
ippi
Nor
th D
akot
aAr
kans
asIo
wa
Loui
sian
aM
inne
sota
Virg
inia
Conn
ectic
utNe
w M
exic
oKa
nsas
Texa
sAl
aska
Wyo
min
gAl
abam
aO
klah
oma
Mis
sour
iO
hio
Wis
cons
inSo
uth
Dako
taNe
bras
kaNe
w J
erse
yTe
nnes
see
Geo
rgia
Illin
ois
Kent
ucky
Verm
ont
Flor
ida
Neva
daW
est V
irgin
iaNe
w H
amps
hire
New
Yor
kSo
uth
Caro
lina
Mar
ylan
dDe
law
are
Penn
sylv
ania
Indi
ana
Idah
oNo
rth C
arol
ina
Rhod
e Is
land
Mic
higa
nU
tah
Ariz
ona
Mai
neM
onta
naHa
wai
iCo
lora
doM
assa
chus
etts
Was
hing
ton
Calif
orni
aO
rego
n
Widespread Land Rationing
14
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
SAN
HOU
DFW
PGH
STL
KC TSP
IPS
PHI
ORL VB CI
NCP
SAT
LBA
LDE
TCO
LPH
XCL
VNO MIL
WD LV
RSB
CHI
MIA
PRV
SAC
DEN
POR
SEA
BOS NY SD LA SJ SF
House Value:Household Income
Multiple: 2000 Census
Housing Affordability: US Urban Areas2000 CENSUS
Land Rationing
More Affordable
3.15 2.74
4.11
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
Average Little Land Rationing Land Rationing
US House Multiple: 2000CENSUS DATA: LARGE URBAN AREAS
£0
£50
£100
£150
£200
£250
£300
Development Not Permitted Development Permitted
Land Rationing Raises Land Prices500 TIMES INCREASE IN S.E. ENGLAND
Land Price:90 Hectare Farm
SoutheastEngland
(Leunig, LSE)
InternationalInternationalHousingHousingAffordabilityAffordabilityRatingsRatingsAndAndRankingsRankings
2005.022005.02
Kiwi DreamAuckland
Housing Cost Multiple: 2004AUSTRALIA, NZ, CANADA & USA: OVER 1M METRO AREAS
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
BUF
RCH
STL
IPS
PGH
DFW
SAN KC
OKC AT
LAU
SLV
LSL
CHO
UCO
LO
TTNV
LCG
YM
ON
MEM NO RD
UPH
XPH
IM
SP VBPO
RO
RL TSP
TOR
MIL
DEN
BAL
CHI
SEA
BOS
VAN
WD
PER
SAC LV
AUK
BRS
ADL
MEL
NYC
MIA SF SYD
SD LA
Land Rationing
Fast Growing &AffordableAtlantaDallas-Fort WorthHouston
Median House Price/Median Household Income
-20%0%
20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
GDP perCapita(AUS)
Median House Price
Inflation Adjusted
Housing Cost Escalation in AustraliaEXAMPLE OF ADELAIDE
Subsidies CannotSolve the Problem
15
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.5
Adelaide’s Deteriorating AffordabilityHOUSING MULTIPLE: RECENT ESCALATION
MedianHouse Price/
MedianHousehold
Income
HistoricMultiple
Adelaide2000
Adelaide2004
Housing Cost MultipleAUSTRALIA & NORTH AMERICA EXAMPLES
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
IPS
DAL
ATL
HOU
OTT
PHX
PER
BRS
ADL
MEL
SYD
Median House Price/Median Household Income
Land Rationing
0
2
4
6
8
10
DFW
ATL
HOU
PHI
CHI
SEA
BOS
WDC NY MIA SF LA
Example UsingHouse US Price toHousehold Income
Multiple: 2004
Elements of Housing Price MultipleCONCEPTUAL MODEL
Underlying Housing Cost to Income Multiple
Speculation
Land Scarcity Premium 1.4
1.1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Kansas City Adelaide
Mill
ions
Metropolitan Area Population: 2003TALE OF TWO CITIES: ADELAIDE & KANSAS CITY
65,000
17,0000
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Kansas City Adelaide
Metropolitan Area Growth: 2000-2003TALE OF TWO CITIES: ADELAIDE & KANSAS CITY
9001,100
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Kansas City Adelaide
Urban Population DensityTALE OF TWO CITIES: ADELAIDE & KANSAS CITY
Population perSquare Kilometer
16
0% 5%
100% 95%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Kansas City Adelaide
Auto & Public Transport ShareTALE OF TWO CITIES: ADELAIDE & KANSAS CITY
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Kansas City Adelaide
Traffic Intensity: 1990TALE OF TWO CITIES: ADELAIDE & KANSAS CITY
Daily Vehicle Kilometers/Urban Square Kilometer
2.6
6.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Kansas City Adelaide
House Price Multiple: 2004TALE OF TWO CITIES: ADELAIDE & KANSAS CITY
Low Interest RatesBoth Urban Areas
Similar Results forDallas-Fort Worth, Houston Comparisons with Sydney
•• Similar interest ratesSimilar interest rates
•• Adelaide housing affordability much worseAdelaide housing affordability much worse
•• Kansas City largerKansas City larger
•• Kansas City housing demand greater (faster growth)Kansas City housing demand greater (faster growth)
•• Adelaide urban population density higherAdelaide urban population density higher
•• Both have high auto market shares, but Adelaide has Both have high auto market shares, but Adelaide has larger public transport share.larger public transport share.
•• Similar traffic intensity, though Kansas City is less.Similar traffic intensity, though Kansas City is less.
ConclusionsTALE OF TWO CITIES: ADELAIDE & KANSAS CITY
Preserving the Dream
The GreatPortuguese Dream
Porto 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
HomeOwners
The Democratisation of Prosperityis not Complete
Renters
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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Australia Now Perth Rate Sydney Rate
HomeOwners
Renters
EventualRates Based
Upon HousingPrice Multiples
Land Rationing: Toward a Nation of Renters:Restoring Inheritance as the Deciding Factor
70% 40% 15%
STRONGSTRONGECONOMIC ECONOMIC GROWTH:GROWTH:ISISNECESSARYNECESSARY
ButBut“Smart“SmartGrowth:” Growth:” constitutes constitutes an assaultan assaulton theon theeconomy.economy.
The GreatCanadian Dream
Toronto THERETHEREISISNO NO REASONREASONTOTOSTOPSTOPDEMOCRATISINGDEMOCRATISINGPROSPERITYPROSPERITY
The GreatSpanish Dream
Valencia
The Great Australian DreamLIVING IN THE “FUTURE TENSE”
The Great Australian DreamEMERGING IN MEXICO
The GreatMexican Dream
Guadalajara
The GreatJapanese Dream
Tokyo
The Great Australian DreamHAS BECOME THE GREAT UNIVERSAL DREAM
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The Great Australian DreamHAS BECOME THE GREAT UNIVERSAL DREAM
The GreatChinese Dream
Hong Kong(Fairview Park)
BACK TOBACK TOBASICSBASICS
THE ROLE OFTHE ROLE OFPLANNING:PLANNING:
Not Not telling telling peoplepeoplehow to live…how to live…
Rather,Rather,helping helping people livepeople liveas theyas theypreferpreferParis Suburbs
People’sRoute
Planner’sRoute